India’s demographic conundrum: A dual challenge of growth & aging

From the editor’s desk

India’s demographic landscape is at a crossroads, presenting a complex interplay of burgeoning population growth in certain states and a rapidly aging populace nationwide. As the world’s second-most populous country, India grapples with significant regional disparities in population dynamics. While some states contribute disproportionately to the country’s population increase, others successfully control their growth. Compounding this issue is the imminent challenge of an aging population, which threatens to erode the demographic dividend that has been a cornerstone of India’s economic strategy.

The most populous states—Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh—are at the forefront of India’s demographic surge. Uttar Pradesh, with the largest population, and Bihar, boasting the highest growth rate, lead this expansion. Maharashtra’s vast urban centers and West Bengal’s high population density further contribute to this growth, while Madhya Pradesh’s rural areas experience notable increases. This uneven growth places immense pressure on local resources, infrastructure, and governance in these states, necessitating targeted interventions and robust population management strategies.

In stark contrast, 31 states and union territories have successfully curtailed their population growth through a mix of family planning programs, educational initiatives, and awareness campaigns. These efforts, bolstered by the National Programme for Family Planning initiated in the 1950s, reflect a concerted push to stabilize the population. The National Family Health Survey-5 indicates that many of these states have achieved fertility rates below the replacement level, signaling effective policy implementation and societal acceptance of smaller family norms.

Despite the national decline in fertility rates, the top five states still exceed the replacement level, highlighting the uneven progress and the need for continued focus on these regions. The disparity underscores the challenges faced by India in achieving uniform demographic stability across its diverse and populous landscape. Adding another layer of complexity is the comparison with China’s population control efforts. China’s stringent policies, such as the One Child Policy, have drastically reduced its population growth rate, presenting a stark contrast to India’s more moderate approach. While India’s policies have been less coercive, they have also been less effective in

certain regions, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies to achieve balanced population control without infringing on individual freedoms.

Amidst this backdrop of population growth, India faces the looming challenge of a rapidly aging society. Asia, and particularly India, is undergoing a significant demographic shift towards an aging population, driven by declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. By 2041, the working-age population in India is expected to peak, comprising 59% of the total population. However, this period of demographic dividend is temporary, with the share of the elderly population set to nearly double from 8.6% in 2011 to 16% by 2041.

This swift aging process poses substantial economic and social challenges. As the proportion of elderly individuals rises, the burden on social security systems and healthcare infrastructure will intensify. Currently, a significant portion of India’s elderly population remains economically dependent, with inadequate social security and health insurance coverage. This economic vulnerability, coupled with low savings and high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, exacerbates the plight of the aging populace.

The Economic Survey suggests several measures to address these challenges, including increased investment in healthcare, raising the retirement age, and expanding social security coverage. Preparing for this demographic shift requires proactive policy measures and substantial financial commitment. Failure to address these issues could lead to severe economic and social repercussions, mirroring the challenges faced by mature economies grappling with aging populations.

India can draw valuable lessons from countries like Taiwan and China, which have implemented forward-looking policies to manage their aging populations. These countries have prioritized healthcare services and social security systems, ensuring a dignified and secure life for their elderly citizens. Adopting similar measures, tailored to India’s unique socio-economic context, could mitigate the adverse effects of an aging population.

The dual challenge of managing population growth in certain regions while addressing the needs of an aging society necessitates a multi-faceted approach. It requires the concerted efforts of the government, private sector, and civil society to implement comprehensive policies and programs.