Political upheaval in Bangladesh: A test of India’s strategic diplomacy

From the editor’s desk

India's political diplomacy has always been precariously balanced within the intricate weave of South Asian politics, more so at a time when many nations are negotiating internal challenges, external pressures, and historical links that bind or divide them. Now, one of India's closest neighbours, Bangladesh, has just plunged into political turmoil, throwing this very balance off kilter. The violent agitation that finally ended with the resignation of the Sheikh Hasina Government appears to have sounded the wake-up call for Bangladesh and India. This blow to the political stability of Bangladesh sends ripples throughout the region, which directly impinges on India's interest in its diplomatic, security, and economic domains. But to anyone, PM Sheikh Hasina's resignation did not come as a shock. It was the high point of years of growing discontent among the people of Bangladesh, particularly its youth. The immediate provocation was a controversial quota system in government jobs viewed by many as unfair and discriminatory. Anger over this spilled into the streets and, in a manner characteristic of these protests, what started off essentially as a protest against an unfair quota system soon blossomed into a wider movement now incorporating other issues such as pension reforms and economic inequalities. The strong-arm tactics of the government in response only added fuel to the flames, further fuelling countrywide protests that finally spiralled out of control into violence. In its wake, the military, led by General Waker-Uz-Zaman, took over with promises to reinstate order and justice. But there are implications here that go far beyond the borders of Bangladesh.

For India, the resignation of Sheikh Hasina is a severe blow. She was an important partner for New Delhi, especially in terms of regional security and counterterrorism issues. Under her rule, Bangladesh had adopted a stiff stance against Islamist extremism, very much blending in with India's own concerns about security. Besides this, her government had formed decent economic ties with India and facilitated trade and cross-border cooperation. The political vacuum produced by her going, however, opens a window for new forces, less India-friendly and potentially game-changing in terms of the dynamics of India-Bangladesh relations to acquire an influence in Dhaka.

The single biggest concern for India is probably a deepening Chinese influence over Bangladesh. China has been making steady forays into South Asia in the last few years through strategic investments and deft diplomatic moves. In a strategic region, part of the increasingly strengthened economy, Bangladesh has become one of the initial targets for the One Belt, One Road initiative launched by China. If the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, heading an interim government, inclines to Beijing, the blow that India's influence in the region would suffer is going to be very great. Such a tilt not only ups the complications of India's case strategically but also brings Chinese influence uncomfortably close to its borders.

Security is another such area where the effects of Bangladesh's political instability are already being felt. Among the most sensitive and porous borders in this region is the IndiaBangladesh border. Illegal immigration, smuggling, and cross-border insurgency have been the norm across this border for quite some time. The present turmoil in Bangladesh only enhances these problems. But that has not stopped India from going for further enhancement of its security cover along the border, now that the turmoil seems to be spilling over into its borders. There are already apprehensions that militant groups might try to infiltrate into India, cashing in on the situation in Bangladesh. Developments like this can have a very destabilizing effect on the already insurgencyand communal problems-mired northeastern states of India. Ramifications of the political crisis in Bangladesh involve not only the security but major economic concerns. The IndoBangladesh trade revolution in recent years happened to be one of the success stories in South Asian economic cooperation. Both countries, over the years, have cooperated in reducing trade barriers, increasing connectivity, and boosting bilateral trade. However, the present instability in Bangladesh is fast turning into a threat that is likely to undo much of this hard-won progress. The pinch has already been felt hard by Indian exporters in general, particularly those from the border regions. Interruption of flow of goods, payments getting delayed, and general uncertainty are causing anxiety to businesses on either side of the border. If the situation in Bangladesh does not improve very soon then serious setbacks could occur; economically speaking, by lowering trade and investment. The way India handles this crisis will determine its future relations with Bangladesh and, in the larger picture, its role within the region. The test New Delhi is facing is that of a balancing act: ability to keep alive democratic processes within Bangladesh and, at the same time, striving to keep the crisis off the boil. On the other hand, India should not abdicate its own strategic interest, which will require interaction with the new interim government and other major actors in Bangladesh, however uncongenial they may be to India's larger interests since Sheikh Hasina.

One possible approach for India would be to develop close coordination with international partners in order to put pressure on the military leadership in Bangladesh to return to the normal order of civilian rule at the earliest. India has historically also been a strong supporter of democracy in the region, so continuing that support would be good not only for Bangladesh but also for the image that India would like to project as a responsible regional power. Secondly, India could use its influence in regional bodies like SAARC to do its best in forcing a peaceful resolution to the crisis by thumbing the importance of stability in Bangladesh to the wider region.

On the other hand, it must be prepared for the eventuality that the situation in Bangladesh may further spiral down: border security strengthening, intelligence cooperation with Bangladesh in monitoring and counteracting possible security threats which may come from the country, and working together with international partners to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches intended persons affected by the crisis in Bangladesh.This could also help India buy some goodwill among the Bangladeshi people amidst such complex politicking.

The current developments in Bangladesh are a grim reminder that India needs to have multiple regional partners. Stronger ties with other South Asian countries, especially with important partners outside the region, might also give India greater strategic flexibility. This approach would also help India mitigate the risks of political instability in the neighbouring countries, ensuring it would be able to continue playing a leading role in South Asian affairs.