WORLD THIS WEEK

In collaboration with National Institute for Advanced Studies

Authored by

Shreya Upadhyay, Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and PadmashreeAnandhan

India and the US: Bilateral Collaboration on Technology dominates PM Modi’s Visit

Shreya Upadhyay

What happened?

During 21-23 June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a State visit to the United States, aiming to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two nations. The carefully planned visit showcased the importance of international cooperation. It was reiterated in PM Modi's words: (the cooperation) "will reinforce ties based on shared values of democracy, diversity, and freedom." The visit witnessed the symbolism of India's cultural reach, with Modi practising yoga at the UN headquarters on International Yoga Day and including millet during the state dinner held in honour of the Prime Minister.

On 22 June, a 58-paragraph joint statement was issued after the bilateral meeting between the two leaders focusing on the domains of technology, defence, space, climate, economic investments, trade, education, health, peopleto-people links, and strategic convergences across geographies, platforms, and institutions.

On the same day, Modi addressed the joint US Congress. He emphasized India's commitment to climate goals, women's empowerment, the fight against terrorism, and other important issues. Talking about a growing economy, he said: "When India grows, the whole world grows."

On 23 June, Modi interacted with the Indian American diaspora— one of the largest immigrant groups in the US. He said: "The partnership between India and the United States will make the world better in the 21st Century. You all play a crucial role in this partnership."

What does it mean?

First, the expanding collaboration in the technology domain. Some of the deliverables included the co-production of jet engines in India by General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautical Limited to power Indian military aircraft, Indian purchase of armed drones, defence industrial collaboration with the launch of innovation platform - 'INDUS-X', semiconductor cooperation, space exploration and cooperation framework for human spaceflight cooperation by the end of 2023. The US is wooing India with a USD500million military equipment and technology package that includes jet engines, critical minerals technology, and tech transfers to lessen India's dependence on Russian weaponry.

Second, intensifying people-topeople contacts. There have been announcements regarding the opening of new US consulates in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad and an Indian consulate in Seattle. The Biden administration will also make it easier for a small number of Indians and other foreign workers on H-1B visas to renew those visas in the US without having to travel abroad, which could be expanded in the coming years. Other wins include new investments in semiconductor production with chip assembly and test plants being set up in India. In trade, both countries have agreed to terminate six outstanding disputes at the World Trade Organization. India also agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs, which it had imposed in response to the US Section 232 national security measures on steel and aluminium, on US products, including chickpeas and apples.

Third, exploring new domains. India has agreed to join the US-led Artemis Accords on space exploration and to work with NASA on a joint mission to the International Space Station in 2024. The accords will give India access to information and advance its space exploration. It can potentially bring the Indian space companies as part of a global supply chain, along with Indian SMEs and New Space startups.

The visit was about managing the differences that continue to exist between the two.

Fourth, likely obstacles and deal breakers between the two countries, based on the recent bilateral history. The star items, such as the co-production of jet engines, have a long and bumpy regulatory road ahead. It remains to be seen how much technology will be transferred and whether India will be okay with the conditions attached, if any. Notably, the India-US nuclear deal still needs to be fully operationalized. Regarding the Artemis accord, critics argue it will limit opportunities for the Indian space program to develop indigenously. During this visit, no talks took place about the restoration of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status for India. About 2,000 products, including auto parts and textile materials, were allowed to enter the US duty-free. India's stance on Russia remains a prickly issue for Western countries, even as India and the US have agreed to disagree.

The thorny issue is the allegations of human rights violations and the backsliding of democracy in India. Before Modi's upcoming visit, 75 members of the US Congress issued a letter to President Biden urging him to publicly address concerns regarding human rights and democracy in India. Yet, the White House was pragmatic and avoided broaching the subject, even referring to India as having a vibrant democracy. Both sides want to showcase "mutual trust and shared strategic priorities."

Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts

Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and PadmashreeAnandhan

What happened?

On 23 June, Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Putin and the leader of the private army Wagner Group revolted, claiming that the Russian military had killed many of his fighters in an airstrike. The Russian Defence Ministry denied these claims. Prigozhin said: "There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in this country." He also threatened to destroy checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. On the same night, security in Russia was tightened, and the internet was restricted while military trucks were spotted on Moscow streets.

On 24 June, according to reports, the Wagner mercenaries had seized military facilities in Voronezh, a city halfway between Rostov and Moscow. Prigozhin said his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine, and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way. Further, the Wagner group proclaimed that its mercenaries had seized all military facilities in Voronezh and added that they would march on Moscow to topple the defence minister Sergei Shoigu. On the same day, President Putin made an emergency address, saying Russia was facing "treason." According to his statement: "All those who consciously stood on the part of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the part of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people." Prigozhin responded, saying that his troops were "patriots of our motherland," and the president was "deeply wrong" to talk of betrayal.

By 24 June evening, the Wagner fighters were advancing through the Lipetsk region, around 450 km from Moscow. The Wagner Group also announced that most Russian army units in the area were switching sides. There were also reports of Wagner fighters leaving the missions in Africa, and Syria, to join the revolt against Moscow. On the other hand, according to state reports, Russian air forces have struck Wagner convoys, and defensive positions around Moscow were set up.

In a late-night development on 24 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko broke a deal between Russia and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin agreed to halt his advance towards Moscow and relocate to Belarus. Through a Telegram post, he had ordered his forces to return to their bases to avoid bloodshed. Following the deal, the Wagner fighters initiated their departure from Rostov-on-Don, which served as the starting point of their mutiny. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters involved in the "march for justice" would not face the consequences due to their previous service to Russia. Non-participating fighters are expected to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry by 01 July as part of efforts to centralize volunteer forces. Specific concessions made to Prigozhin remain undisclosed.

What does it mean?

First, the fractured equation between Wagner and Russia. The Wagner group is considered Russia's most effective unit among the mercenary groups. From its extensive role in Africa, Syria, in the Crimean annexation in 2014 to the battles in Soledar and Bakhmut in the Ukraine war, Prigozhin has been at the forefront for Russia. The relations began to crack when Russia grew dependent on the Wagner group. Russia's shortage of personnel and constraints to restrict new mobilization delegated Wagner's head to deploy his forces. Wagner group's major role in Soledar and Bakhmut battles showcased its capability, while the Russian military was criticized for not giving enough ammunition and being ineffective in holding control.

Second, the blow to bring the Wagner Group under the effective control of the Russian military. The Wagner's head did not accept the military's efforts to bring the mercenary units under one contract. The revolt could be seen as a reflection of unwillingness of the Wagner to work under direct Russian military command. This highlights an internal divide between supporters of Putin and Prigozhin and a more significant question to the leadership of Russia.

Third, the impact of the Wagner revolt on Russia's war in Ukraine. For Russia to fight in Ukraine, a new mobilization was launched to recruit more. The recruits and not-so-fully trained soldiers led to the gap between operations and command. Although there was not much awareness or objection against Russia on mobilization, Russia slowed down the recruitment to prevent domestic dissent. On the other hand, the Wagner was allowed to recruit prisoners across Russia and command better despite the shortage of equipment. Human resource is the strength of any war; Russia's operation in Ukraine will have consequences of Prigozhin leaving for Belarus. Ukraine will benefit from the recent development. The immediate impact will be on the Wagner units deployed inside Ukraine, which may pause their operations or stop fighting for Russia. The damage caused to the M4 highway, and Rostov-on-Don is crucial to Russia's offensive in southern Ukraine and can help Ukraine gain in its counteroffensive.

Fourth, Putin's reputation. As stated by Putin, the motive of the Ukraine invasion was to bring back USSR or reinstall Russia as a geopolitical power, but the fallouts of the war have been nothing but a backfire. From Finland joining NATO to minor incursions into Russia, the Wagner group's revolt should question Putin's reputation within Russia.

About the Authors

Dr Shreya Upadhyay, Deputy Director (Hon) Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies. Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma and Ankit Singh are PhD scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. PadmashreeAnandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis and Rishika Yadav are Research Associates at NIAS. Sneha Sunrendaran, Prerena P and Ryan Marcus Manuel are Research Interns at NIAS. *This report has been modified by Australia India for space considerations.