World This Week

THE WORLD THIS WEEK

Contributed by the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru*

him, and also address the internal divide. While the final vote may have pushed Biden to be the next President, there was no “wave” against Donald Trump. A substantial percentage has voted for Trump; this would mean, they believe in what Trump has been selling them in terms of making America great again. Today, the US stands more polarised within, than it has been ever before.

By D Suba Chandran, Harini Madhusudan, Lokendra Sharma and Akriti Sharma

The US: Joe Biden will be the new American President and Kamala Harris the Vice-President

US President elect Joe Biden and Vice President elect Kamala Harris

What happened?

After four days of tensed vote counting, Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate has won the 2020 Presidential election against Donald Trump. The counting got delayed, because of the heavy postal ballots. Joe Biden, in his first speech as the President-Elect, addressed the need first to unite the US within. He made an explicit point that there are no Blue and Red States, only the United States. Besides addressing the political red and blue divide in terms of the Democrats and the Republicans, he also mentioned the need to restore the soul of America, heal the country and push the harsh rhetoric away. There was no gloating in his speech against Donald Trump. Though he did not talk about the global issues, in his first speech, he did mention about making the US respected again internationally. Kamala Harris, the Vice President-elect, emphasized on the need to protect the democracy, and build a better future together. She referred to the sorrows, sacrifice and the pain of people during the last few months (referring to the COVID). Kamala Harris also underlined the role of women in the elections and their role in taking the US into the future. She referred to about her mother, who came to the US at the age of 19 and referred to the Black, Asian, Latino and Native American women as the backbone of the democracy. “Tonight, I reflect their struggle. I stand on their shoulders.” She also stated, “I may be the first woman in this office. But, I’ll not be the last”. In a nutshell, Kamala Harris referred to the need to bring everyone, who has made the US their home. There has been no response from the Trump campaign so far. A few tweets, earlier by Trump, have not given any indication, that he would accept the verdict gracefully, and leave the White House.

What does it mean?

First, Biden will have to address the domestic expectations from her ethnic background, talked

on 19 November, the Austrian Restoring the soul of the US, and “making America the beacon of the world” as Biden commented is not going to be an easy task. Second, Trump’s legacy at the international level. Biden’s statement made – that he would make the US respected again at the global level, is also not going to be an easy task for the new President. Trump has derailed many global commitments that the US has made earlier – from climate change to trade. Trump’s policy towards China, the Middle East (especially Iran) and Russia – will pose tough questions to the new President. Also, Trump’s handling of the American allies – especially Canada and Europe, means Biden will have to rebuild relations not only with adversaries but also with the allies. Tough task. But not insurmountable.

Europe: Austria and France seek pan-European measures against Islamic Extremists

Chancellor and the French President are expected to propose discussions with senior EU officials regarding issues/ measures that include a better screening of asylum seekers, tougher penalties for citizens sympathetic to the Islamic State (or other terror groups) and supporters who have participated with extremist groups abroad. With three horrific attacks in the past six weeks, Europe faces a law and order issue along with an ideological challenge. What does it mean? There has been a strong response to the attacks in Europe and the rest of the world. There has also been a debate about Europe being overwhelmed by the rising number of immigrants. The current move by Austria and France brings the dichotomy of Europe’s passion for multiculturalism against their decades-long resistance to assimilating the immigrants into their society. Since the immigrant crisis in Europe has now become

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz

a popular election ploy, public opinion has been highly divided. The law and order agencies in both the countries seem to have failed to foresee the attacks or even have a profile of the perpetrators. A joint initiative by Europe with uniform measures of verification makes it the only timely response that could help reduce such attacks in the future.

French President Emmanuel Macron

What happened?

On 5 November, Austrian and French officials said that they are planning a joint campaign to push for European Unionwide measures against Islamic extremism. This comes in the wake of terrorist attacks during recent weeks in both countries. At the forthcoming EU summit

ALSO IN THE NEWS

China: CPC releases the roadmap for the next 15 years

On 3 November, the Chinese Communist Party made public a roadmap for development in China for the next fifteen years. On 29 October, the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee adopted the committee’s proposals for the formulation of the “14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development and the LongRange Objectives Through the Year 2035.” The proposal sets a blueprint for China’s economic growth and social development in the coming years and has a central focus on technological self-sufficiency.

breaches of national security law

On 5 November, a new hotline became operational in Hong Kong; now, anyone can anonymously report to the police regarding breaches of the new national security law. Various pieces of information, including texts, photos and videos, can be sent through this hotline. On its first day, the police received about 2500 tip-offs. Critics warn about increased surveillance and targeting of pro-democracy activists and dissenters.

Thailand: Protestors urged to join the reconciliation panel

On 6 November, political leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Member of Parliament Nikorn Chamnong, urged the protestors to participate in the proposed reconciliation panel so that the conflict could be resolved. This comes after the Ratsadon group, and the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration (UFTD) from the protestors’ camp turned down the request made by President Chuan Leekpai recently.

India: Foreign Secretary’s visit to Germany

On 2 November, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla arrived in Germany, as part of a threenation European tour. He met the German Foreign Minister of State, and held discussions over shared priorities, strengthening of the multilateral structures and rapidly growing cooperation between the two countries. While addressing the German diplomats and think tanks, Shringla mentioned the evolution and importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the twenty-first century, India’s interest in becoming the net security provider, and the significance of the establishment of partnerships with European nations. India: Phase one of the Malabar Naval Exercise comes to an end On 6 November, the first phase of the Malabar Naval Exercise ended. India, along with the USA, Japan, and Australia, conducted the exercise off the coast of Visakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal with a focus on antisubmarine and anti-air warfare operations. It is being seen as four nations with a mutual interest in the Indo-Pacific coming together to counter the Chinese influence. The second phase of the exercise will begin on 17 November in the Arabian Sea.

India and China: Eighth Corps Commander level meet held at LAC

On 6 November, the XIV Corps Commander Lt General PG K Menon met with his Chinese counterpart Major General Liu Lin for the eighth round of discussion on the ongoing standoff between India and China at the Line of Actual Control. The meeting was held at the Indian side of the Chushul-Moldo Border Personnel Meeting point. Like the last two meetings, this meeting was also attended by the diplomats from both sides. However, there was no official announcement on the outcome of the meeting; it is expected that both sides will extend the deployment of additional troops in the region.

Bangladesh: Anti-France protests

On 2 November, Bangladesh witnessed a major protest against French President Macron’s comments on ‘Islam is in crisis’ and his defence of the offensive caricature of the Prophet. The protest had about 50,000 people that originated from Dhaka’s biggest mosque. The protestors also called for banning of French products and closure of the French embassy in Bangladesh. However, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refrained from commenting on the cartoon controversy. Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia also witnessed protests over the same issue.

Canada and France: Trudeau and Macron speak

On 5 November, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and French president Macron discussed the recent terror attacks in France. This call comes after Trudeau’s recent remarks on the limits of freedom of expression caused uproar both in Canada and France. To control the damage, Trudeau expressed solidarity with French people and both leaders agreed on the importance of defending the freedom of expression and human rights and on their shared commitment to fighting terrorism and violent extremism, according to a readout of their conversation released by the PM’s office.

About the authors

D Suba Chandran is Professor and Dean and Lokendra Sharma, Harini Madhusudan and Akriti Sharma are PhD Scholars with the School of Conflict and Security Studies, at NIAS. *The report has been modified by India News due to space considerations.

Make in India: Emerging Opportunities

As world economies restart their engines in a bid to regain lost ground due to the Covid-19 pandemic, India too shows signs of economic buoyancy and promise. India’s Make in India initiative holds a key to the global economic revival, something that should interest Australian government ministries, corporate sector, entrepreneurs, institutions seeking R&D collaborations, and Australia Inc. in general, among others. India assumes greater importance as several major world economies including American, Japanese, German, British and South Korean look to move out and diversify their businesses from China. India has jumped to 63rd rank in the World Bank’s Ease of Development 2020 report, and has also been ranked as the 9th largest recipient of Foreign Direct Investment destination in 2019 by the World Investment Report 2020 of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

CHEMICALS World’s chemical nucleus

Market size of chemicals and petrochemicals sector in India is worth $165 bn. chemicals accounts for around 71% of the total production of major chemicals for the year 2019-20 (up to September 2019). • The petrochemical demand is expected to grow at 7.5% CAGR

Chemicals industry in India is highly diversified, covering more than 80,000 commercial products. It is broadly classified into bulk chemicals, specialty chemicals, agrochemicals, petrochemicals, polymers and fertilizers. India’s proximity to the Middle East, the world’s source of petrochemicals feedstock, makes for economies of scale. India is a strong global dye supplier, accounting for approximately 16% of the world production of dyestuff and dye intermediates. Chemicals industry in India has been de-licensed except for a few hazardous chemicals. Upcoming Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemicals Investment Regions (PCPIRs) and Plastic parks will provide state-of-theart infrastructure for chemicals and petrochemicals sector. • The chemicals and petrochemicals market is projected to reach $300 bn by 2025. • India ranks 14th in export and 8th in import of chemicals (excluding pharmaceutical products) globally. • Demand of chemical products is expected to grow at approximately 9% p.a. over the next 5 years. • Indian chemical industry employs more than 2 million people. 100% FDI is allowed under the automatic route in the chemicals sector (except in the case of certain hazardous chemicals)

Industry Scenario

Market size of the chemicals industry in India stood at $180 bn in 2019. The production of total major chemicals and petrochemicals in 2019-20 (up to September 2019) was 13,871 thousand MT. CAGR in production of total chemicals and petrochemicals during the period 2014-15 to 2018-19 is 4.78%. Alkali from FY 2019-23, with polymer demand growing at 8%. • The agrochemicals market in India is expected to grow at 8% CAGR reaching $3.7 bn by FY22 and $4.7 bn by FY25. • The specialty chemicals constitute 18% of total chemicals and petrochemicals market in India. As of FY19, the total market size is around $32 bn. The demand for speciality chemicals is expected to grow at 12% CAGR from FY19-22.

CONSTRUCTION Building a sustainable future

The construction industry in India consists of the real estate

as well as the urban development segment. The real estate segment covers residential, office, retail, hotels and leisure parks, among others. While urban development segment broadly consists of subsegments such as water supply, sanitation, urban transport, schools, and healthcare. • By 2025, construction market in India is expected to emerge as the third largest globally. • By 2025, construction output is expected to grow on an average by 7.1% each year. • By 2020, construction equipment industry’s revenue is estimated to reach $ 5 bn. 100% FDI under automatic route is permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships, malls/shopping complexes, and business constructions. 100% FDI is allowed under the automatic route for urban infrastructures such as urban transport, water supply and sewerage and sewage treatment.

Industry Scenario

The construction industry in value terms is expected to record a CAGR of 15.7% to reach $ 738.5 bn by 2022. The industry contributes 55% share in the steel industry, 15% in the paint industry and 30% in the glass industry. The construction industry in India is expected to grow at 5.6% during 2016-20, compared to 2.9% during 2011-15. The activities that registered the highest growth include export cargo (10%), highway construction/widening (9.8%), power generation (6.6%), import cargo (5.8%) and cargo at major ports (5.3%).

• India will be required to spend $ 454.8 bn on infrastructure development over the period of five years (2015-20), with 70% of funds needed for power, roads and urban infrastructure segments. • Expected cement capacity addition of 80-100 MT per annum over next five years.

TELECOM Connecting the world

The telecom industry in India is the second-largest in the world with a subscriber base of over 1.2 bn. The industry has witnessed exponential growth over the last few years primarily driven by affordable tariffs, wider availability, roll-out of Mobile Number Portability (MNP), expanding 3G and 4G coverage, evolving consumption patterns of subscribers and a conducive regulatory environment. Indian smartphone users consume maximum data in the world at 12GB/month and which could increase to 25 GB/month by 2025. • Total number of Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) connections is expected to reach 1.4 bn by 2020 from 1.1 bn in 2017. • Telecom industry contribution to GDP is expected to reach 8.2% by 2020 from 6.5% in 2017. 100% FDI is allowed in the telecom, wherein up to 49% is allowed through the automatic route and beyond 49% under government route.

Industry Scenario

The Indian mobile industry is expected to create a total economic value of $217.4 bn by 2020. The telecommunications industry is divided into following subsectors: infrastructure, equipment, Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MNVO), White Space Spectrum, 5G, telephone service providers and broadband. As per GSMA, India is on its way to becoming the second-largest smartphone market globally by 2025 with around 1 billion installed devices and is expected to have 920 million unique mobile subscribers by 2025 which will include 88 million 5G connections. Telecom tower in India is set to boom as its tenancy ration will increase from 1.95 times in 2016 to 2.9 times by 2020 due to the expansion of 3G and 4G and the onset of 5G technologies. 5G is set to be a game changer for the telecom industry and is expected to yield enormous economic opportunities over the next three to five years. India has the potential to unlock $48.69 bn through the deployment of 5G over the next four years. More than 70 companies have received approval from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) to provide MVNO services. The majority of these companies are focused on Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. The DoT is targeting a combination of 100% broadband connectivity in the villages, 55% fiberisation of mobile towers, average broadband speeds of 25 mbps and 30 lakh kms of optic fibre rollouts by December 2022. By December 2024, it is looking at 70% fiberisation of towers, average broadband speeds of 50 Mbps and 50 lakh kms of optic fibre rollouts at a pan-India level.

Source: INVEST INDIA, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, Government of India