How close is the UK to its climate goals?

The first instalment in our "Road to Net-Zero": analysing how on-track nations are to achieving their climate goals and those laid out by the Paris Climate Agreement.

by Ash Jones

Many nations across the globe have set goals to reduce active greenhouse gas emissions by 100% over the coming decades and strides towards sustainability have seen greater investment and support since the start of the millennium.

The UK likes to style itself as a "global leader" in decarbonising industry, passing legislation to reduce pollution and accelerate tech advancements that will enable a greener future. But how accurate are these labels?

Back in 2019, Theresa May's administration enshrined into law a target of net-zero by 2050 "at the latest" under the Build Back Greener scheme, unveiling its strategy for achieving these goals in October 2021. It has also set an interim target of reducing emissions by 78% of 1990 levels by 2035, which was raised in the face of the COP26 summit.

The UK is also targeting a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030, which is the target it presented to the UN, and the one it is currently bound to. Before this, the country had pledged to reduce emissions by 57% by 2030.

However, according to government projections from 2020 (available here), the UK was not on target to reach its 57% goal, let alone the revised figures. That said, recent policies (detailed below) could put it further on track.

Annual reports are expected on how the UK plans to fund and reach these climate goals. The 2050 target has been enshrined into UK law, being one of 13 nations - plus the EU - to do so.

However, it will not be targeting historical emissions, meaning carbon-negative industry is not currently a goal.

As a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement, its goals should ideally align with preventing a global rise in temperature by 1.5°C, or 2°C at the very most. However, in March 2021, a UN report suggested current goals by most nations may not be enough to reach the 1.5°C targets.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), has a detailed rundown on the UK's goals.

Britain is planning to decarbonise its energy grid by 2035, install 5GW of hydrogen capacity by 2030, power UK homes with offshore wind - of which the UK's has the world's largest installed capacity, and make great strides in carbon capture and storage (CCS) tech over the next decade - hoping to target 6 million tonnes of industrial emissions per year by 2030.

More specific details about the hydrogen economy and carbon capture tech - primarily costs and why these goals are sufficient - have yet to be given. However, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has revealed the hydrogen economy "could be worth" around £900 million.

Carbon emissions from electricity generation dropped by approximately two-thirds between 2012 and 2020, according to a BEIS report, and the sector looks to be on track to achieve its targets.

The UK's most recent carbon budget is at 965 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the 5 years 2033 to 2037, referring to the maximum amount of emissions that can be pumped into the atmosphere within this time frame. For reference, in 2037 alone, the budget is 207 million tonnes.

The UK government has also called for netzero shipping by 2050. In early 2020, aviation executives also pledged to try and target netzero emissions within the same timeframe.

Perhaps more radically, the UK has vowed to ban the sale of all fully-petrol or diesel-powered cars by 2030 and trucks by 2040, which has seen some support from major automotive players.

Oil giant Shell acquired Ubitricity in January 2021 and later pledged to install 50,000 EV charging stations across the UK while a more recent scheme backed by

This graph shows the energy mix of renewable generation, based on data from the Climate Action Tracker report, updated with the best additional data through to the end of 2021.

automaker Vauxhall will look to encourage private charging station owners to rent out their hubs to EV owners. However, there are still concerns that more rural areas may not see enough charging stations, which could negatively affect the adoption of lowcarbon driving.

According to a live report of the National Grid's energy mix, renewable energy currently makes up 38% of the UK's energy generation, with wind energy taking up by far the largest share of the mix. BEIS data suggests renewables make up around 43% of the energy mix - increasing tenfold in a decade.

This graph shows the energy mix of renewable generation, based on data from the Climate Action Tracker report, updated with the best additional data through to the end of 2021. Note: Covid-19 had significant effects on energy mixes and fossil fuel supply chains went haywire, so take these numbers with a pinch of salt.

For reference, in 2009, renewables accounted for 3.8% of the energy consumed. In 2011, 9.2% of the energy generated was through "certified" renewable energy sources.

However, the UK has refused to set a carbon intensity target in line with the PCA.

According to zerotracker.net, the UK is planning on using carbon offset credits, a term used to describe benefits from any scheme that reduces or removes CO2 from the atmosphere, which can be used to compensate for emissions from other sources - such as planting trees to offset construction emissions - with no additional conditions.

Wildlife and Countryside Link, a UKbased coalition, has criticised the use of carbon offsets, claiming it could lead to industrial emitters getting "off the hook".

It also does not have separate emissions targets for emissions reductions versus emissions removal.

All this data does mean the UK is putting a decent effort in, but as many of these goals are a significant number of years away, true criticism cannot be levied until more reports come in.

Some sectors are also struggling to decarbonise. One of the more problematic sectors appears to be construction, but transport is also facing issues - primarily in EV adoption, although 1-in-6 new cars in 2021 were electric, issues over available charging remain an issue, as well as the luxury nature of EVs.

Construction is notoriously difficult to decarbonise and will likely rely on CCS technology to remove emissions. It also has other issues, such as air or noise pollution to tackle.

The UK leaving the EU has also led to methodological difficulties from watchdogs and analysts to properly assess the true extent of the UK's climate ambitions, according to Climate Action Tracker (CAT).

While it may to too early to tell for sure whether the UK is fully on track to achieve its net-zero goals, the most recent report from Climate Action Tracker (dated November 2021) suggests the plans laid out by the British government are "almost sufficient" to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2050 through policy and that its goals are "acceptable".

However, the report also finds that minimising land use and deforestation remains insufficient, and its climate finance remains "highly insufficient", even with the October climate action plan. It is also relying on offsets to handle reductions outside of its own borders. "The newly announced measures are expected to result in significant emission reductions", the report states. "However, with the specific impact of many of them not yet quantified, and concerns remaining around the scale of specific measures, uncertainty remains whether they will enable the achievement of the 2030, 2035, and 2050 targets. "Meanwhile, the UK government continues to support projects that will lead to greater future emissions, such as the expansion of Heathrow airport, and a wholesale expansion of the Strategic Road Network".

Both the government's hydrogen and building strategies have also raised concerns over the adequacy of measures - whether they're sufficient enough to achieve the targets set out.

Onshore wind saw a 94% reduction in application between 2015 and 2018, according to CAT, but has seen a resurgence in 2020, while solar has always struggled, with slow rates in residential adoption.

There is also the matter of Hinkley Point C, the only nuclear station currently under construction. In late 2020, the government started scouting for the UK's first fusion plant, which has seen a number of suggestions to bolster local energy economies. There is also Sizewell C, which has yet to begin construction.

It is also commonly thought that nuclear energy may be the only way to ensure the levels of generation needed for the transition to net-zero.

So, is the UK on track to achieve netzero? It's a mixed bag, but possibly. While some investments have been made and legislation put in place, the UK still has a way to go before it will be fully prepared for the transition. If the government manages to implement every plan for the energy transition, net-zero could be achieved, but other environmental factors, such as habitat destruction, litter and pollution may still be present.

It appears transparency on the viability of the UK's renewable sector leaves much to be desired - primarily clarification of why targets are acceptable and in line with the PCA. Setting goals is one thing, but achieving them is another thing entirely.

As it stands, the UK is currently not quite on track to achieve its climate goals, but greater investment and policy over the coming years could push it over the edge. n