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Why the 4% rule may no longer be the golden rule
Why the 4% rule may no longer be the retirement golden rule
Even the father of the 4% retirement rule, William Bengen, admits that it’s time to rethink that rule. • Anthony Martin
Does the 4% safe withdrawal rate for retirees still preserve a retiree’s portfolio, or can that rule be put on the shelf for another time?
The 4% rule for retirement withdrawal and spending was articulated for the first time in 1994. Since then, financial planning experts have relied on this cornerstone of client retirement income management.
It turns out that the “4% beacon” may appear slightly blurred, if not even shaken. The current economic climate and the changing financial landscape undermine the rule’s reliability.
Even the father of the 4% retirement rule, William Bengen, admits that.
William Bengen confesses he’s violating the rule
Bengen has reconsidered his 4% invention and doesn’t treat it as a golden rule for retirees anymore.
The 60/40 stock and bond portfolio has been referred to as a guidepost by moderate-risk investors. An eye-opening truth is that Bengen’s personal portfolio accounts for 10% bonds, 20% stocks and 70% cash.
As Bengen claimed in a Wall Street Journal interview, belief in the 4% rule and the strategy of allocating 60% to equities and 40% to bonds do not actually fit the modern settings.
Let’s see why it happens and why you might need to offer your retiree clients a more flexible strategic plan to secure their post-retirement finances.
Why the 4% rule may not be a rule of thumb anymore
Skyrocketing inflation
Inflationary periods may slowly kill your clients’ retirement savings accounts and investment strategies. Inflation hit a record high of 9.1%, and as retirees have to withdraw more from their accounts just to keep to the same standard of living and their costs spiral out of control.
Besides, the chance of a more-aggressive inflation-driven recession is increasing.
Unpredictable market returns
They’re not at a bubble range, but equity market valuations are considerably higher than the historical average and they impact the 4% withdrawal rule tremendously.
As for bonds, yields have fallen to record lows. Bonds used to provide a guaranteed and steady income. Not anymore.
Variability of personal investment risk
Adapting to inflation, the 60/40 portfolio is facing the worst year ever, according to Bank of America Securities in a recent Barron’s article. The 60/40 portfolio should be adjusted in accordance with the client’s personal investment risk tolerance, financial aims and investment time horizon. However, the stock-bond combination should remain the core, even if retirees don’t strictly follow the 4% rule. Based on Bengen’s calculations, a 50/50 mix of equities and bonds can make a nest egg last for approximately 33 years.
Are your retiree clients going to live so long? Turns out they need to prepare for a longer retirement.
Life expectancy a factor
COVID-19 drove a drop in U.S. life expectancy rates. Still, living longer and exhausting financial resources remain significant retirement risks.
Taking into account all these reasons, your clients may need to reconsider their retirement spending strategies.
Rethinking a retirement withdrawal strategy
Here are some alternatives to the 4% withdrawal rule, along with ways to help your clients weather market turbulence.
1) Personalize a retirement spending plan and get out of the 4% rule box.
In a 2021 interview with Barron’s, Bengen said he believes that retirees may now switch to 4.5%, while the bottom rate may be 3.3%.
But do your retiree clients need to go to extremes?
Why not coin a personalized retirement withdrawal plan, just like Bengen did himself?
“Financial professionals should think out of the box now and apply personalization strategies to reach flexibility with dynamic withdrawals,” said Mark Pierce, CEO at Cloud Peak Law Group.
“Starting with a lower withdrawal rate may be risk-free. Not many retirees would like that variant. However, there are some obvious things they cannot deny. Here’s one of them: There will definitely be more expenses for health care and medicine after age 75. Consequently, retirees will have more withdrawals starting from that age,” he continued.
2) Working out a safer
asset allocation. Bengen’s recommendation on the asset allocation blend is as follows: 35%-40% in bonds, 50%-55% in stocks and 10% in cash. He sees it as an optimal solution.
It also may be beneficial for current retirees to rebalance their portfolios to 20%-30% stocks. Thus, they enable higher predictability and steadier growth.
3) Sticking with the required minimum distribution. The required minimum distribution applies to individual retirement accounts; profit sharing plans; 401(k), 403(b) and 457(b) plans; and other defined contribution plans.
While the 4% spending rule is a fixed plan, the RMD approach is a variable one. Based on life expectancy, it’s a more contextual approach.
This method can be personalized. Financial advisors should create individual life expectancy RMD tables for their clients and adjust them on the go. Taking an average 20-year life span after retirement, the lowest starting point may even be 5%.
4) Using guardrails to optimize the withdrawal rate.
In addition to inflation adjustments, the Guyton-Klinger guardrails method lifts starting withdrawals even more meaningfully.
Using probability-of-success-driven guardrails, a retiree can cut back on withdrawals during a market downturn but raise the withdrawal rate when the market is stronger.
5) Reallocating a portion of a retirement saver’s portfolio to fixed indexed annuities.
Or any other type of annuity, as annuities provide nourishment in an income
starved environment.
Your clients would want to play it safe, wouldn’t they?
They may do that with guaranteed minimum benefit. Capped and uncapped FIAs, for example, may become potential solutions. Applying the 4% rule to annuities, you can educate your clients on why incorporating an FIA in a retirement strategy is worthwhile.
6) Considering supplementary variants to boost income in retirement.
“Focusing on guaranteed income
sources — such as annuities, certificates of deposit or rental income — financial experts should also draw their clients’ attention to Social Security as a possible income booster in retirement,” recommended Catherine Schwartz, finance editor at Crediful. “If retirees postpone filing for Social Security benefits and claim them as late as possible (as they turn 70), they’ll get up to an 8% increase per year,” History of the 4% rule she said. More than 25 years have passed since William The concept of the 4% rule is attributed to Bill Bengen, Bengen coined the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals. We’ve demonstrated a financial advisor in some specific reasons Southern California why it might be slightly who created it in the behind the times now. mid-1990s. When even its inventor dared to break The rule was created using historical data his own rule, why should retirees stick to it, with all its piton stock and bond re- falls popping up now? turns over the 50-year Helping clients reperiod from 1926 to vise their retirement 1976, focusing heavily on the severe market downturns of the 1930s and early 1970s. withdrawal strategy should start with an explanation of why the 4% withdrawal rate may not be quite applicable Bengen concluded that even during to particular situations and circumstances — especially untenable markets, no historical case with the ever-changing fiexisted in which a 4% annual with- nancial “weather” of today. drawal exhausted a retirement port- When retirement securifolio in fewer than 33 years. ty matters most, a flexible, personalized and holistic SOURCE: Investopedia financial strategy should result in a strong and successful retirement spending plan. Isn’t it the best time to apply some changes to the 4% oldie and reevaluate other alternatives to ensure your clients’ financial stability and happy retirement? Anthony Martin is founder and CEO at Choice Mutual. He may be contacted at anthony.martin@ innfeedback.com.
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