Make Wise Decisions by Seeing the Truth
Gleb Tsipursky, PhD
Going with your gut?
How does our mind work?
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Intentional
Autopilot
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2 Intentional
Autopilot
Subconscious Automatic Fast Intuitive Emotional
Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Autopilot Intentional
Automatic thoughts & feelings Subconscious beliefs & assumptions Habits
Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Intentional
Elephant Rider Autopilot
Elephant
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2 Intentional
Uses a lot of energy Autopilot
Uses little energy Runs all the time
Runs in low-effort mode
How does our mind work? System 2 is activated when‌
System 1 runs into difficulty Learning new information Awareness of potential for error
How does our mind work? System 1 Autopilot
Usually makes good decisions Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities
System 2 Intentional
Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus
strategies • Use this knowledge to our advantage! • Find ways to activate System 2 when we need it most • Train the elephant rider • Make changes to System 1 • Train the elephant
Predictable Errors Why did THEY do it? Why did YOU do it? Fundamental Attribution Error We tend to interpret the actions of others more harshly than our own. We tend to judge the personality of others based on very limited information.
Predictable Errors Should we always pay attention? Attentional Bias We tend to pay attention to factors that appeal to our emotions (especially negative emotions).
strategies Broad Framework: Gaining Agency Evaluating ourselves and our environment Developing long-term goals Implementing effective strategies to reach our goals Continuously reassessing our strategies and goals
strategies The Map and the Territory Our “map” of the world doesn’t fully reflect reality. We can focus on improving our “map” to make it more accurate.
strategies I Notice I’m Confused I Notice I’m Surprised Become aware of when you feel confused or surprised. Your “map” probably does not match the reality of the situation.
strategies Bad News is Good News If something bad already happened, it’s better to know about it. When you know what went wrong, you can find a way to address the situation or prevent it from happening in the future.
strategies Updating Beliefs If we discover that we are confused or surprised, or that we made a mistake, it’s important to update our beliefs about a situation. Be a flip-flopper! It can prevent you from making mistakes.
strategies Experimental Attitude Update your “map� and update your beliefs. Conduct thought experiments (or actual experiments) to learn about the world.
Remembering and applying strategies • Make an intentional decision to apply these strategies • Make reminders to yourself to use these strategies • Train subconscious System 1 to embrace using these strategies through positive reinforcement • Speak the language of System 1: emotions • Associate positive thoughts and emotions with every time you use the strategies successfully
resources Center for Applied Rationality www.cfar.org Columbus Rationality Facebook group http://ow.ly/vfBdO Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality www.hpmor.com Less Wrong www.lesswrong.com
Intentional Decision Making Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals
Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA
decisions
How do we make them? What tools can we use to do better?
MAKING DECISIONS • Past • What happened? • How did you think and feel about it? • Future • What do you want? • Experiment with different futures • Present • Make decisions to move toward Future
MAKING DECISIONS What is a good decision? • Depends on how decision was made • Use probability to make better decision
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Intentional
Autopilot
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2 Intentional
Autopilot
Subconscious Automatic Fast Intuitive Emotional
Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Autopilot Intentional
Automatic thoughts & feelings Subconscious beliefs & assumptions Habits
Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2
Intentional
Elephant Rider Autopilot
Elephant
How does our mind work? System 1
System 2 Intentional
Uses a lot of energy Autopilot
Uses little energy Runs all the time
Runs in low-effort mode
How does our mind work? System 2 is activated when‌
System 1 runs into difficulty Learning new information Awareness of potential for error
How does our mind work? System 1 Autopilot
Usually makes good decisions Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities
System 2 Intentional
Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus
Predictable Errors Wishful thinking. Planning Fallacy We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan. We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.
Predictable Errors Throwing good money after bad. Sunk Cost Fallacy If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.
Predictable Errors Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die. Hyperbolic Discounting We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.
strategies Focus on Your Long-Term Goals Reframe Your Perspective • Ask Why? Ask Why Not? • Outside perspective • Be self-aware
strategies Future Scenario method • Think of what “might” happen in the future • How likely or unlikely are these possibilities? • Focus on undesirable outcomes • What might cause them? • How can you prepare?
resources Intentional Insights www.intentionalinsights.org Center for Applied Rationality www.cfar.org Columbus Rationality Facebook group http://ow.ly/vfBdO Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality www.hpmor.com Less Wrong www.lesswrong.com