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Understanding stride data
Understanding stride data
It is not always the fastest horse who wins the race, writes Page Fuller of Race iQ
IT IS GIVEN THAT THE FASTEST HORSE from start to finish is the horse that wins a race. This, however, does not necessarily mean the quickest horse will win a race and that was particularly apparent at this year’s July meeting at Newmarket.
Stride data hasn’t been introduced yet within our analysis, but this seems an appropriate moment considering the focus on speed within this piece.
Hopefully, many of you will be familiar with this, but for those of you who aren’t, here is a quick explanation as to why it is so important.
Stride data is effectively the two components of a horse’s speed. Stride length determines how much ground a horse can cover with a stride, while frequency is how many strides a horse can take every second (strides per second or s/s).
The faster a horse can turn over its stride, or the longer it can extend, the quicker it can go.
Why is this relevant when looking at a horse’s performance?
Let’s have a look at Whistlejacket’s effort in the Group 2 July Stakes.
Whistlejacket’s time may have been underwhelming in comparison to the 6f handicap run 35 mins later, however, it was the fashion in which he won that impressed.
No Nay Never has proven an effective sprint stallion with a strike rate of 14 per cent for his offspring’s races over 6f (Racing Post).
His best offspring have been seen to best effect over 6f, and has Whistlejacket given an insight, but why?
Jockey Ryan Moore set steady fractions in front for the first 3f, and then quickened rapidly from an 11.31s furlong in the third furlong, to a 10.88s furlong in the fourth.
He then motored into the dip with an 11.08s furlong (Billboard Star could only manage an 11.20s furlong) and stayed on strongly to the line with a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 101.66 per cent.
Stride data becomes relevant here because it illustrates how Moore was able to make better use of Whistlejacket’s stride to quicken than the second horse, Billboard Star, and could reflect why he was able to maintain his speed so well to the line:
From the two graphs below, you can see how Whistlejacket was able to make better use of his stride, specifically as he ran into the dip in the second last furlong.
His stride length increased from 7.7m and a frequency of 2.35 s/s to a stride length of 7.9m and a frequency of 2.33 s/s. It takes more energy to operate at a higher frequency so it was a benefit to him that he was able to roll into the dip and use it to his advantage by lowering his frequency. Thus enabling him to sustain his run to the line having quickened so far out.
It could also be argued that he won because he handled the dip better than the runner-up.
Instead of lowering his frequency, Billboard Star increased from 2.43 s/s to 2.45 s/s in the same two furlongs as his stride length deteriorated from 7.51m to 7.42m. This would have put extra strain on his energy resources and sabotaged his challenge.
Later in the card we saw the return of Giavellotto, who gave the red hot and in-form jockey Oisin Murphy a quick double on day one of the meeting.
Mastercraftsman’s progeny can take a little while to mature, and it seems that may be the case with this horse, too.
It was a shame to miss him at the Royal Meeting last month, but the five-year-old entire was expertly placed in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes by trainer Marco Botti, the horse showing why 1m4f was a far better option for him than the marathon trip of the Gold Cup.
It became a tactical affair with the two groups splitting up the home straight and Kieran Shoemark kicking for home on Arrest with three furlongs to go. This set the race up perfectly for Giavellotto.
From his previous runs we knew the horse stays further than the 1m4f he was running over on Thursday, the biggest question was did he have the speed?
This was his first run over shorter than 1m5f in over two years, but his Top Speed of 40.29mph in the second last furlong showed that he had plenty of pace for this trip –when the race is run in the right way for him.
He was the only horse to record a Top Speed higher than 40mph and quickened up to an FSP of 104.15 per cent.
Best time performance came on Day 2
Moving onto the second day, we saw the best time performance of the week within our RaceiQ Time Index when Arabian Dusk landed the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. Her sire Havana Grey is another stallion who has stamped his mark on the sprint division, but it wasn’t his daughter’s speed that won her this race.
Arabian Dusk was sharp out of the stalls, only taking 2.35s to reach 20mph, which meant she could sit handy without too much effort. She needed that advantage though, as she turned out to be the “slowest” horse in the race.
She had the lowest Top Speed of the field, only hitting 41.40mph in the third furlong. For context, Maw Lam was the fastest of the field hitting 42.57 mph in the second furlong.
This is representative of how strong the pace was early doors and this filly was classy with her ability to maintain this speed to the line. She finished the race with an FSP of 98.36 per cent and clocked the fastest final furlong of the field, too. This makes her time performance all the more impressive.
William Buick was in excellent form at the meeting and his ride in the Superlative Stakes was a great example of him harnessing Ancient Truth’s speed at the perfect moment.
Some warning bells may have been ringing for the favourite backers as the field quickened up in the fifth furlong, but William allowed the winner to find his stride before they ran into the dip and up to the line.
He managed to hit 41.46mph at this point, the colt producing a potent turn of foot, similar to his sire Dubawi, to put the race to bed. This made him by far the quickest horse in the race with Wimbledon Hawkeye the second-fastest horse only managing 40.88mph.
Just over an hour later that we saw William Buick work his magic again, making full use of Mill Stream’s father’s stamina for the 6f trip of the Group 1 July Cup. Gleneagles himself stayed a mile, he was a Classic winner of the English and Irish Guineas; his son’s stamina proved invaluable in another strongly run contest.
Swingalong broke very sharply, clocking the fastest 0-20mph of the meeting at 2.17s and, along with Art Power, set quick fractions. In fact, Art Power was already 0.45s, or two and a half lengths, in front of Mill Stream by the end of the first furlong.
The whole field clocked sub-11s furlongs for the second and third furlongs and it was this point that Mill Stream’s powerful combination of speed and stamina kicked in.
He recorded the fastest times for each of the last three furlongs, and was the only horse to finish his final furlong in under 13.00s (12.87secs).
He was another winner who didn’t need to be the fastest to win the race, but maintain his pace best to the line, with seven horses recording speeds quicker than his 42.54mph. Jasour was the quickest, running keen and reaching 43.36mph in the second furlong.
Glossary
Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP): uses the sectionals to calculate the speed a horse covers over the final furlongs of a race, as a percentage of its overall race speed.
For races up to a mile, the final furlongs are the last two furlongs, for 1m1/2f and above it is the final three furlongs.
RaceiQ Time Index: This assesses a race time compared to the time we expect that race to be run in.
This includes the effects of race class, course, distance and official going. We then allocate it a score out of ten to give us context about how much a race has over or under-performed on the clock compared to what we were expecting.
A race run in the expected time would score around a five or six.
0-20mph metric: The time it takes for a horse to reach 20mph after leaving the stalls
