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Dominance to continue
The big guns Frankel and Dubawi look set to stay at the top for a while longer, writes Jocelyn de Moubray, but there are a number of stallions who could make a significant impact to European breeding through next season and beyond
WE CAN BE SURE THAT, come the autumn of 2026, when the products of 2024 matings will be offered for sale as yearlings, the top two sires in Europe will be Frankel and Dubawi.
Juddmonte’s Frankel has now had seven crops of three-year-olds to race and has long since reduced to silence the early doubters who thought his progeny lacked speed.
Frankel is now the sire of 31 Group 1 winners and 24 European Group 1 winners.
He is, though, a sire of middle-distance horses; his progeny’s average winning distance is 9.5f and 65 per cent of theirwins at three come over further than 1m2f.
One difference between Frankel’s record and that of his sire Galileo or grandsire Sadler’s Wells is that most of his progeny enjoy firm ground, and among current European sires only Ardad and Toronado have a higher proportion of their wins on firm or good to firm ground.
The ability to act on firm ground is not essential for the progeny of a top stallion in Europe, but it makes success in Japan, the US or Australia far more likely.
Dubawi’s 14th crop of three-year-olds was not one of his best with only one Group 1 performer in Europe, the filly Never Ending Story.
However, Darley’s champion sire has the same success on all types of going, as well as on the All-Weather.
Dubawi’s success as a sire of stallions, with Night Of Thunder, Zarak, Too Darn Hot already well established, will ensure that he is fully booked until the end of his stud career.
If nobody will disagree with Frankel and Dubawi’s excellence any further conclusions from all of this data will be more subjective. It is never easy to compare the record of stallions as there are so many variables at play. It is why it is always interesting to compare the records of stallions who retired to stud the same year (see table opposite), and to look at stallions’ achievements with two or three-year-olds over a two or threeyear period.
Everyone who is interested will draw different conclusions from the data presented here, but before moving on to some subjective ideas of my own another objective truth is that the current market gives an extraordinarily high value to twoyear-old success.
Extraordinary only in the sense that the best sires by proportion of Group 1-performing two-year-olds over the last two years are Frankel, Dubawi, New Bay and Wootton Bassett; not sires known especially for their precocious stock.
And then if you look at the programme of Pattern races, juvenile Group races account for less than 25 per cent of the total, and of the 75 per cent of Pattern races run for three-year-olds and older horses, nearly half are run over 1m2f or further.
Sires who produce stakes-winning two-year-old sprinters can see their fees rise quickly by 300-750 per cent, but it is ever more difficult for a middle-distance sire to attract consistent support, and proven Group 1 producers, such as Nathaniel and Australia have seen their fees reduced in an attempt to do so.
Newsells Park’s Nathaniel is the most surprising case of all as the son of Galileo has produced seven European Group 1 winners from his first six crops, including a great champion Enable and a Derby winner in Desert Crown and yet his fee has generally fallen since he retired to stud.
Stallions are judged on their ability to produce early two-year-olds, yet the racing programme still provides far better opportunities for middle-distance horses at three and upwards, and every year the major horses-in-training sales reveal the demand for three-year-olds with the ability to perform over 1m2f or further.
New Bay and Wootton Bassett into the elite
To revert to some personal judgments it looks to me as if Wootton Bassett, New Bay, Zarak and Galiway are all going to confirm their positions as elite stallions
Wootton Bassett covered as many mares in his first two years at Coolmore as he had in his last four at Etreham and so within a year or two it should become clear what type of sire he will become.
At Etreham, he was able to produce all types of horses from two-year-olds to sprinters, milers and middle-distance horses.
The third crop of Ballylinch’s New Bay was not as good as the first two, but his fourth, two-year-olds of 2023 from a stud fee of €15,000, includes three of the best European juveniles with the Group 1 performers Alcantor, Shuwari and Devil’s Point.
The son of Dubawi is going to have many more horses to run for him over the coming seasons having covered 390 mares in 2021 and 2022.
As far as stamina and going preferences go New Bay is similar to his sire Dubawi with 50 per cent of his three-year-old wins coming at less than 1m2f and his progeny on the whole act on all types of ground and the All-Weather.
New Bay has had top runners in England, Ireland, France and Germany and will attracted support from breeders all over Europe.
Zarak and Galiway making strong early marks
The Aga Khan’s Zarak, a son of Dubawi and the great racemare Zarkava, is still at the beginning of his stud career but his first two crops produced at a fee of €12,000 have been consistently well above average and his three-year-olds of 2023 include Marquisat and Rashford in France, as well as Straight and Princess Zelda in Germany. All could compete at a high level in 2024.
He, too, has covered more mares in recent years, 162 in 2022, and though he has had few runners in England and Ireland so far, in France and Germany he has proved to be an excellent source of middle-distance runners on all types of going.
The Haras de Colleville’s Galiway made his mark with his first four crops of threeyear-olds all of which came from a €3,000 fee.
His success with these three-year-olds puts him second among the sires of his generation by the proportion of stakes horses to foals, behind Gleneagles who started out at €60,000 and ahead of Night Of Thunder, Golden Horn and Muhaarar.
The son of Galileo’s fifth crop, produced at a fee of €10,000, includes his second Group 1 winner Sunway, the full-brother to the Prix Jean Luc Lagardère and Champion Stakes winner Sealiway.
Galiway covered 350 mares in 2021 and 2022 and so will have plenty of runners in the years to come.
Key year for Mehmas and Night Of Thunder
Two other young sires who could also make a bigger mark before 2026 are Tally-Ho’s Mehmas and Darley’s Night Of Thunder.
Both are already accepted by the market and have covered large books at greatly increased stud fees, but after outstanding first crops.
For Mehmas, his two-year-olds of next year will decide his future as the son of Acclamation had 158 yearlings offered for sale.
For Night Of Thunder next year may well be decisive, too, as the son of Dubawi produced 31 two-year-old winners from his first crop of 136 foals since his fee rose significantly, including the talented Group 1 performers Verspertillo and Omellaia.
Night Of Thunder generally produces faster horses than either New Bay or Zarak, 80 per cent of his three-year-old wins have been at less than 1m2f, and his progeny often appreciate soft ground.
Mehmas is mainly a sire of sprinters, 75 per cent of his three-year-old wins come at less than a mile and his progeny often appreciate All-Weather tracks.
Bigger books for Ardad and Kodi Bear
Other sires who will have many more runners over the next two years than they have had recently include Overbury Stud’s Ardad and Rathbarry’s Kodi Bear. Kodi Bear and Ardad had successful first crops on the racecourse in 2020 and 2021,
but have had few runners from their subsequent small crops, and yet both covered around 350 mares in 2021 and 2022 and had 82 and 49 yearlings offered for sale in 2023 respectively.
Some “climbers” to note
There are many others who can be considered as either underrated by the market or as possible climbers over the coming years.
Among the sires who had their first three-year-olds in 2023 Havana Grey and Sioux Nation have had the warmest welcome from the market but Cracksman, Saxon Warrior and Harry Angel have all shown enough to suggest they too could be established stallions by 2026.
Cracksman’s progeny have done better in France and Germany where they were given time, and it is no small achievement to produce a champion and a Classic filly in his first crop.
Saxon Warrior’s first three-year-olds may not have been quite as good as they looked at one point, but his daughter Lumiere Rock was among the best of her generation and he had several other useful stakes horses.
Harry Angel has among the best ratio of winners-to-foals among the sires with one crop of three-year-olds to race and his best Al Dasim didn’t run again after looking good in Dubai at the beginning of the year.
Darley’s son of Dark Angel has some promising two-year-olds from his second crop, including A Lilac Rolla.
Muhaarar will stand in Normandy for the first time in 2024 and although he didn’t turn out to be a sire of high-class sprinters like himself he has had more Group 1 performers over the last three crops than either Night Of Thunder or Gleneagles, who retired to stud at the same time.
Finally, to return to some underrated middle-distance sires, Camelot and Sea The Moon have achieved enough to suggest they could easily be standing at higher fees.
Coolmore’s Camelot has sired seven European Group 1 winners from his first seven crops, two of whom, Luxembourg and Los Angeles, were also juvenile Group 1 winners.
Lanwades’ Sea The Moon had great success in Germany this year with the Group 1 Derby and Oaks winners Fantastic Moon and Muskoka, as well as Classic performers Kassada and Sea The Lady, which is logical as the son of Sea The Stars covers many German-owned mares.
Both Camelot and Sea The Moon’s progeny tend to be at their best on soft or good ground.
