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European sires 2024 review
Jocelyn de Moubray puts results for the older European stallions under his microscope
THE ACCOMPANYING TABLES (see pdf of this story) have several different ways of looking at the recent record of European stallions, not including those who had their first two-year-old runners in 2024.
The results with three-year-olds are examined in detail because, even if the Classic programme may no longer be quite as imperative as it once was, races for threeyear-olds alone are still around 20 per cent of all European Pattern races and include many of those which give the most prestige, value and prize-money.
The crop records are of interest as they show how each stallion’s record has changed over time, and how they have been altered by different opportunities as stud fees are increased or decreased.
When looking at these tables it is important to bear in mind that the figures for the most recent crops are far from definitive as plenty of horses acquire their first blacktype at four or older.
This mass of statistics will mean different things to different observers, but before picking out some of the aspects which struck me, there are a few general points which seem to be relevant.
The crop-by-crop figures show very clearly why people want to buy the progeny of first-season sires as, more often than not, a stallion’s first crop is his best
The starting price of the most successful stallions shows that the market is often wrong in its assessment of new stallions.
The best sires include some like Frankel, who was an expensive sire from the beginning, but plenty of others such as Siyouni, Havana Grey, Lope De Vega or Zarak started out at an average or belowaverage fee, and a few like the Haras de Colleville’s pair of Kendargent and Galiway stood for more or less nothing.
The crop-by-crop figures show very clearly why people want to buy the progeny of first-season sires as, more often than not, a stallion’s first crop is his best.
And when this doesn’t happen it is usually fatal for the horse’s future career as few, if any, stallions will be able to recover from a disappointing start; the market turns the page quickly and moves on to the next novelty.
A final point is that, for all of the interest in statistics for two-year-old sires, the fact remains that successful two-year-olds are a tiny minority of the progeny of every stallion, even those with the reputation of being twoyear-old sires.
Somewhere between 20-30 per cent of the progeny of the best stallions will be placed in black-type races, but for two-year-olds even the best sires in this niche produce only 10 per cent stakes horses to foals as two-yearolds.
The older generation
Dubawi and Frankel are regularly at the top of the table for three-year-old sires, and in the latest edition they have very nearly identical results.
They are different types of sires and produce very different physical individuals, too.
Dubawi already has several sons well established as successful stallions, as Frankel’s progeny stay and are only rarely precocious, it is making it more difficult for his sons and some of his best started their stud career outside Europe.
This duo will not be together at the top for much longer – Dubawi turns 23 in January and he is already covering many fewer mares.
Initially, Coolmore’s Gleneagles stood at double the fee of Darley’s Night Of Thunder but the situation has been reversed and yet for the last three years their records are more or less the same
Lope De Vega and Kingman are also well established as numbers three and four in this table.
Neither has yet to match the outstanding success of their first crop, but both have come close to doing so and have returned better results since their covering fees went up to six figures.
Both sires had two Classic winners from their 2021 crop of three-year-olds.
Coolmore’s Camelot is close behind these two, despite the fact that all of his threeyear-olds to date were conceived at a fee of €40,000 or less. Camelot’s three-year-olds in 2021 included the Classic winner Los Angeles as well as the Classic performers Deira Mile and Dancing Gemini.
Kendargent’s three-year-olds included Trafalgar Square, the gelding sold for more than a million euros at the Arqana Arc Sale and, since his book was significantly reduced in size, he has been a consistent sire of Group and stakes horses.
For the first five years of a stallion’s career it is interesting to compare the records of those who went to stud at the same time.
All stallions good enough to secure a longterm place at stud tend to go through similar cycles – from a good start to a quiet period when their third and fourth crops are racing, and then coming back when their sixth crop reaches the racecourse.
The class of 2016: next year will be a crucial year for Galiway
For those who retired to stud in 2016 the sixth crop, which will determine their long-term future as stallions, will be three-year-olds of 2025.
Initially, Coolmore’s Gleneagles stood at double the fee of Darley’s Night Of Thunder but the situation has been reversed, and yet for the last three years their records are more or less the same.
Night Of Thunder will have to produce a Classic winner and more Group 1 winners to justify the difference in their covering fees now.
Gleneagles’ 2021 three-year-olds included the high-class gelding Calandagan, as well as the Deutsches Derby winner Palladium.
Next year will be crucial for the two other sires from this generation – Make Believe and Galiway.
Ballylinch’s Make Believe produced the champion Mishriff in his first crop, but then struggled with numbers and had some quiet seasons before coming back into the spotlight in 2024 with his three-year-olds, which included Royal Supremacy, Sajir and Making Dreams, while his two-year-olds were headed by the unbeaten Group winners Lazio and Klaynn.
Galiway, who started off as a cheap stallion, had similar problems although his three-year-olds include the Group 1 performer Sunway.
The son of Galileo’s two-year-olds, the first since his fee went up, appear to be more backward than those from his earlier crops and so 2025 will determine his future.
The class of 2017: New Bay and Mehmas
New Bay and Mehmas both started out relatively cheaply and saw their fee rise quickly as they both made impressive starts. Tally-Ho’s Mehmas has so far been mainly a sire of two-year-olds, his 2024 juvenile crop certainly made a mark with more than 150 runners and 18 stakes horses.
Next year will show whether he is more than a two-year-old sire and if any of these are able to go on to feature in the best races at around a mile.
The average winning distance for Mehmas’ three-year-olds is 7.01 furlongs which just takes him into the intermediate category.
To have produced six Group1 performers in his first three crops off a fee of €12,000 is a rare achievement
New Bay’s is 8.8 furlongs and so it is impressive that his first crop of two-yearolds since his early success attracted support and includes 27 two-year-old winners.
The class of 2018: Zarak well to the fore
The Aga Khan’s Zarak is the clear leader among the sires of 2018 and his consistently excellent results put him among the most promising stallions in Europe.
For Zarak to have produced six Group 1 performers in his first three crops off a fee of €12,000 is a rare achievement.
By Dubawi out of the great champion Zarkava, he attracted mares from all breeders who appreciate pedigrees, but it turned out many of those are based in Germany.
His progeny are on the whole middledistance horses and act equally well on all types of ground, even if for the time being he has less success on All-Weather tracks this is something likely to change if he has more runners in Britain.
The class of 2019: Harry Angel and Saxon Warrior at the right fees now
For three-year-olds rather than two-yearolds the class of 2019 is still close together, the two-year-old successes of the progeny of Havana Grey and Sioux Nation from low initial fees has seen their covering fees rise dramatically.
In the circumstances Coolmore’s Saxon Warrior and Darley’s Harry Angel look good value at their new fees – both have consistent results from their first two crops of three-year-olds.
The class of 2020: early days
For the sires of 2020 it is too soon to make any more of a judgement than that Lanwades’ Study Of Man, Darley’s Blue Point and Too Darn Hot have made excellent starts, with Study Of Man in particular returning outstanding figures from his small first crop of only 55 foals. For this trio and the other sires from the group we shall learn a great deal more during 2025.
Distance table compares like with like
The table showing average winning distance of the three-year-olds. is interesting in order to compare like with like –there are not the same Pattern race opportunities for sprinters as there are for any of the other categories. For the three-year-old sprinters there is surprisingly little between the four leaders – Blue Point, Showcasing, Havana Grey and Harry Angel.
Kingman is the clear leader of the intermediates, even if this position is likely to be challenged in the future by Night Of Thunder, Wootton Bassett,who is now covering huge books at big fees, as well as Dubawi’s sons New Bay and Too Darn Hot.
Zarak is the obvious successor to his sire Dubawi among the middle-distance sires, unless Lope de Vega’s results continue to improve.
Frankel is likely to dominate Europe’s stamina sires for the remainder of his career, -even if both Camelot and Study Of Man will have more opportunities in the future.
