stallion sales
Where was the value?
Tom Wilson crunches the numbers to see which stallions outperformed the market this autumn
W
E NOW have the opportunity to reflect and analyse trends in the yearling market, whilst comparing against ontrack performance to assess whether certain sires may be being under-valued or overvalued based on sales ring returns compared to racing performance. We aggregated sales results at Arqana, Tattersalls UK and Ireland, plus Goffs UK and Goffs and have converted purchase prices to sterling in order to enable comparison. On my figures, Dubawi leads my top 20 sales list with an average purchase price across the 27 yearlings purchased of £495,037. The average purchase price across all lots was £58,845 giving Dubawi a performance above the average purchase price of all lots of £436,191. Kingman tops the list in terms of total purchase prices across all lots from the yearling sales so far in 2021, with 80 yearlings purchased for a total of £18,308,900. In all, £309,646,312 was spent on yearlings sold in the
166
sales ring at the above sale houses between August and November 10, and Kingman accounted for 5.91 per cent of all total sales, Lope De Vega for 5.44 per cent and Sea The Stars 4.84 per cent. In terms of the lowest average and total value of purchases, of sires with more than 10 yearlings sold through the ring, Estidhkaar at £4,915, Hot Streak at £5,009 and Ivawood at £5,985 were the lowest purchase value performers. As a side note, an interesting metric for breeders and purchasers may be the ratio of yearlings by sire who were returned unsold. Of sires sending more than three yearlings to the sale, Finsceal Fior was the sire who returned the largest proportion of stock unsold, with all three yearlings failing to be purchased through the ring. Of the sires with the fewest number of yearlings returned unsold, or the largest proportion sold if you may, Havana Grey translated positive buyer reviews with a strong performance through the ring, with only 1/85 (1.18 per cent) yearlings sent to the sales returning unsold. For reference, the average
www.internationalthoroughbred.net
Sires with the lowest number of unsold yearlings and that performance against the market average of unsold horses per stallion STALLION
Unsold
Havana Grey Expert Eye No Nay Never Oasis Dream Sea The Moon Camelot New Bay Sea The Stars Frankel Lope De Vega Ardad Kingman Siyouni Golden Horn Ulysses Zoustar Gleneagles Mehmas Iffraaj Cracksman
Total
% unsold % Unsold v Avg
1 85 1.18 -5.47 1 65 1.54 -5.11 1 65 1.54 -5.11 1 62 1.61 -5.04 1 53 1.89 -4.76 1 47 2.13 -4.52 1 46 2.17 -4.48 2 89 2.25 -4.40 1 41 2.44 -4.21 3 98 3.06 -3.59 1 32 3.13 -3.53 3 95 3.16 -3.49 2 57 3.51 -3.14 1 28 3.57 -3.08 1 26 3.85 -2.80 3 77 3.90 -2.76 3 75 4.00 -2.65 2 50 4.00 -2.65 2 49 4.08 -2.57 3 71 4.23 -2.43
across the entire yearling pool was 6.6 per cent of the lots listed in total returned unsold. Frst-season sire Expert Eye was well fancied by purchasers with only 1/65 (1.54 per cent) of his yearlings returning unsold, while the older No Nay Never rounds out the top three.
Can we determine value purchases?
The question then becomes, are we able to determine which sires may be under-estimated by the market and could represent value based on the yearling purchases that we’ve seen in 2021? Based on what we are seeing
