Finding a path to the Pattern

INDEX

Wins Against Replacement: looks at the performance vs an average performance expected by a horse, jockey or trainer based on the field sizes of the races they have been running in. For example, based on field size a horse in a 10 runner field has a 1/10 chance or 10% win probability

Wins Against Expectation: calculated the win expectancy of horses based on their Betfair starting price. For example a horse sent off Evens or 2.0 has a 50% win probability based on market price.

%Rivals Beaten: looks at the % rivals beaten in a race. It is a better measurement of racing performance as it looks across all positions in a race and as such gives more depth than traditional metrics like Win % or Place %

Finding a path through the Pattern after Royal Ascot

Tom Wilson takes a look at the stats to see how horses and trainers fare with older horses and juveniles as the Flat Turf season rolls on after the Royal meeting

IN MANY WAYS, Royal Ascot signifies the start of a new chapter in the UK and Irish Flat season.

It’s reveals the emergence of the juvenile crop from infancy into something more. The vitality of youth in equine form.

Raw speed, energy and precocity becomes harnessed into the first etchings of greatness via the fields of the Norfolk, the Coventry, the Albany.

It also turns the page from three-year-old Classic competition into open battle.

Onwards then to the heaths of Newmarket, the July Cup on the Bunbury Mile, a meeting place for the best sprinters, young and old, gelded or entires. The colours of Ascot winners Rohaan, Creative Force, Alcohol Free, Oxted will be seen in a frantic gallop down the July Course; each race a chance to write a new story, one for the ages, into the journals of the Pattern.

And so post-Ascot, where do the stories begin?

Out of darkness and into light

The Eclipse meeting at Sandown attracts the highest proportion of runners from the Royal Ascot meeting.

The Eclipse is framed by the outline of Royal Ascot and it is Berkshire rather than Surrey that provides the lineage towards Sandown’s finest Flat meeting.

We’ve seen 15 of the last 24 winners of the Eclipse coming directly from Royal Ascot, compared to five from 24 coming from the Epsom Derby.

Nine winners have eminated from the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, three from the Queen Anne Stakes, two from the St James’ Palace and one winner from the Hardwicke Stakes.

Then onwards to York and the Juddmonte International where 10/22 Eclipse winners have run subsequently, or back to Ascot for the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

The Eclipse meeting at Sandown of all the major Festival meetings attracts the most post-Royal Ascot runners.

In total, 6.8 per cent of all Royal Ascot runners since 2010 have gone on to run at the Eclipse meeting on their next start, followed by 6.4 per cent of runners following up at Glorious Goodwood and 5.4 per cent heading to the John Smiths Cup meeting at York.

Performance review

Let’s take a look at how Royal Ascot runners perform at the subsequent large Flat racing Festival meetings over the course of the season.

It may be the smallest sample, but runners heading to the Galway Festival have the best performance on the figures – 14.7 per cent winners across all runners, but a nice over-performance of +7.31 wins against replacement (WAR) and +1.31 wins above market expectations (WAX) per 100 runners.

Willie Mullins boasts a strong record with his dual Royal Ascot and Galway Festival performers.

Holding a 30.3 per cent win record with all runners since 2010, for a 4/13 record overall.

On that basis, his runners could be worth noting and any Galway entries for his Royal Ascot cohort this year – Stratum, M C Muldoon, Saldier, Rayapour and Royal Illusion.

A special note to avoid the Ballydoyle runners that are doing the Ascot-Galway double header.

O’Brien’s runners are 0/15 since 2010 (-1.54 WAX), whilst Joseph O’Brien is faring little better with his charges starting off with a 0/5 return.

Dermot Weld is the perennial “man of Galway Festival” so there should be no surprise if he boasts an impressive record.

His Ascot runners are 3/5 when pitching up at the Galway Festival following a run at Royal Ascot – Ghimaar won in 2008 and 2009, followed by Stunning View winning the Galway Mile Handicap in 2011.

Check the chances of Falcon Eight and Dalton Highway if they end up running down th Connacht in July.

Carrying the Royal Ascot form to Newbury?

Of all the summer Flat racing festivals it’s the Dubai Duty Free meeting at Newbury in July that appears to be the most influenced by Royal Ascot form.

In 2020 we saw sparkling performances from Happy Romance when winning the Super Sprint following a fifth place in the Queen Mary.

It was a path previously taken by Richard Hannon Jnr with Tiggy Wiggy, who followed up her second place in the Queen Mary with a win in the Super Sprint in 2014.

Tiggy Wiggy (above) and Happy Romance both went on from Royal Ascot to Weatherbys Super Sprint success

Tiggy Wiggy (above) and Happy Romance both went on from Royal Ascot to Weatherbys Super Sprint success

Back to 2020 we saw the William Haggas-trained Naharr win the bet365 Handicap following a third in the Wokingham.

And right back in 2016 we saw The Tin Man saunter down that well-trodden path winning the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, following a fifth in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

At Newbury, it’s the two-yearolds who do the real damage here, with post-Ascot juveniles holding a 7/36 19.44 per cent Win SR, 44.1 per cent Rivals Beaten^2 record when following on.

They’re +2.31 wins above market expectation since 2010, with seven wins compared to 4.69 expected by the market (based on Betfair’s starting price).

Trainer Simon Crisford boasts an 83 per cent winners to runners ratio with Royal Ascot juveniles in their subsequent outings

How do the Royal Ascot 2yos fare?

Let’s take a look at how the younger crop from the Royal meeting progresses over the season, based on their postAscot runs.

Perhaps, unsurprisingly, it is the Ballydoyle juveniles who showcase the most impressive post-Royal Ascot performance on official ratings.

We analysed the proportion of Ascot-entered juveniles who subsequently went on to achieve ratings above thresholds of 80, 90 and 100.

Aidan O’Brien’s two-year-old roster includes such luminaries as Churchill and Caravaggio, but across the entire Ascot crop the horses show impressive performance levels.

Of his 71 two-year-olds who have run at Royal Ascot since 2010, 30 have gone on to be rated 100+ in their juvenile season (42.25 per cent), 42 have gone on to be rated above 90 (59.20 per cent), with 44 rated above 80 (62%).

Haggas Ascot 2yos win all at York

It is worth paying special attention to the William Haggas two-year-olds who are sent north to York subsequent to a Royal Ascot entry.

They boast a 7/11 record, performing with astonishing returns of 2/2 at York’s John Smith’s Cup meeting and 5/9 at the York Ebor meeting.

It’s a trick we saw Haggas employing when sending Royal Mezhan to win a maiden at York after finishing fifth in the Norfolk in 2013.

The same path from the Norfolk to a York maiden was plotted for Ajaya in 2015, and we also saw Mubtaghaa win the Premier Yearling Stakes at the Ebor meeting for Haggas after a third place in the Windsor Castle two runs prior.

But perhaps the finest example of Haggas’ race planning from Royal Ascot to York was the winning performance of Approve, winner of the 2010 Gimcrack Stakes after success in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot two races prior.

Casting the net wider

Charlie Appleby does well with the younger horses that he sends both to Royal Ascot and the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting, they’re 3/5 and have a 68 per cent %RB^2 record at the Suffolk track.

Andrew Balding’s post-Ascot juveniles are worth considering, if you see them entered outside of the larger tracks or big festival meetings.

Those running in lower key events have a 7/18, 38.89 per cent record since 2010.

Also worth noting are the charges of Simon Crisford who are 5/8 62.5 per cent, 85.2 %RB^2 . +6.35pts when entered in lower-key contests.

Fahey’s two-year-olds are always worth following postRoyal Ascot, even if it is an aspect that is well known by the market.

Fahey’s younger horses have a 21/93 22.5 per cent, 53.9 per cent RB^2, +33.07pts record when entered outside of big festival meetings over the rest of the Flat season that year.

The Newmarket-based George Margarson has an impressive record with his two-year-olds post-Royal Ascot, and these may go under the radar.

Charlie Appleby does well with the younger horses that he sends both to Royal Ascot and the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting

He’s 3/9 33 per cent, 55.2 per cent RB^2, +26.10pts with juveniles going on to be entered in non-major races post Ascot.

Northern trainer Kevin Ryan is an impressive trainer with the younger horses overall and his record stacks up with an 8/34 record in non-major races for juveniles post Royal Ascot.

Trainer seasonal records with their Royal Ascot horses

To conclude let’s bring together the entire post-season records of trainers with their Royal Ascot runners.

The data included is from 2010 and is taken from all trainers runners from Royal Ascot up to the end of the Flat season at Doncaster in late October / early November.

Sir Mark Prescott’s Royal Ascot runners stand out with a record of 15/49 30.61 per cent +37.58 Betfair SP and 5.89 Wins Above Market Expectation (WAX).

A high profile example of Sir Mark’s would be that of the 2015 Nunthorpe winner Marsha, winning by a nose in the famous finish with Lady Aurelia, three runs after a third in the King’s Stand Stakes.

Also keep an eye on the runners of Marcus Tregoning (10/44 22.73 per cent), Dean Ivory (16/75 21.33per cent) over the course of the rest of the season.