7 minute read
Efficiency v velocity
Page Fuller of RaceiQ analyses the stride data in the St Leger, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Flying Five Stakes
WITH THE MAJOR SUMMER Flat festivals done and dusted, the St Leger Stakes at Doncaster signalling that autumn is well on its way.
Winner Jan Brueghal may have arrived late on the scene compared to some of Aidan O’Brien’s star performers over the years, but landing this year’s renewal put him firmly in the mix as a stayer to be reckoned with in seasons to come.
The versatility of his sire Galileo will be sorely missed, and we were reminded of this when watching his penultimate crop of Classic contenders battling to the line.
Jan Brughel needed every bit of that versatility, too. His pacemaker Grosvenor Square set steady fractions in front ensuring his stable companions had every chance of seeing out the 1m6f trip.
We can put this into context by comparing the sectionals* from this year’s Classic, which was run on ground listed as good (good to soft in places), and last year’s race that was run on soft (good to soft in places).
Jan Brueghel reached the 3f marker only 0.15s quicker than Continuous did in last year’s running but, once the pace lifted, he motored home. From this point he made use of his speed and the quicker ground to complete the final 3f over two seconds quicker than last year’s winner.
Most of the runners in the race hit their Top Speed entering the final furlong, but Jan Brueghel was the one who showed the sharpest turn of foot, helping him put the race to bed in the final stages.
His Top Speed of 39.23mph was over half a mile an hour faster than Illinois’ 38.70mph, and that proved crucial.
As well as strongly seeing out this longer distance, he showed he could still make use of his father’s speed and maintain it to the line.
We were treated to six Group 1 races at Leopardstown and The Curragh for the Irish Champions Festival. In the magazine’s last edition, we introduced stride data as a tool for our analysis and this helped to dissect the action from Ireland.
The headline act was the titan clash between Economics and Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1), and the race turned into a stamina-sapping 1m2f.
Every horse hit Top Speed in the second furlong with Economics and Ghostwriter clocking an 11.03s furlong then.
Since stride frequency and length are the components of a horse’s speed, it is interesting to use them to illustrate how well Economics saw the trip out in comparison to Auguste Rodin.
The runner-up was one of only two horses who managed to break 12s a furlong after the fifth furlong. This was in the second-last furlong in which he managed an 11.97s/ furlong in comparison to Economics 12.23s. However, he was 0.07s slower in the last furlong, which was enough to help Economics hold on in the shadow of the line.
You can see the effect of the slight downhill dip in the second furlong where the field sped off in the early stages, with the main two protagonists reaching peak stride length in that furlong.
Then with three furlongs to go the pair attempted to quicken again, but were then having to rely on turning their strides over quicker since they have gone so fast to begin and energy was waning.
In the second-last furlong you can see Auguste Rodin’s late lunge, reaching his peak stride frequency, but he was unable to sustain that to the line like Economics.
Throughout four of the last five furlongs, Auguste Rodin had a slightly longer average stride length than Economics.
However, in the final furlong, his stride length deteriorated far more than the winner’s showing the effect of his late lunge in the second last furlong.
What this tells us for next time is yet to be seen, but it certainly backs up how talented and straightforward Economics is, with the latter’s quality not applying so much to the runner up.
On Sunday we saw the rematch of the Nunthorpe Stakes (G1) one-two, Bradsell and Believing, in the Flying Five Stakes (G1) at The Curragh, and the stride data once again threw up some interesting reading.
Believing has shown both times that she has a difficult run style for a 5f trip, even though her form says she is most effective at the distance. She gets outpaced early on and then stays strongly, and we got a firm pointer on Sunday towards why that is the case.
However, long a horse’s stride is, its speed will be limited if it is unable to turn it over quick enough, and that seems to be what limits Believing’s early pace.
Most sprint races have their early furlongs as their fastest, Believing is unable to keep up because she can’t turn her stride over fast enough. However, can maintain her own rhythm to the line as she demonstrated in Ireland – as you can see, the daughter of Mehmas maintained almost exactly the same stride frequency from start to finish.
Bradsell, on the other hand, was able to turn his stride over quickly in the early stages to go the gallop and maintain that advantage, despite his energy waning towards the end.
Unfortunately for Believing, even though she is performing very highly this season, this inability to turn her stride over looks to be stopping her from hitting the line in front at this top level.
Everything points to her wanting a step-up in trip, but she doesn’t seem to stay when she does so, Believing will have to wait for a stiff 5f and a race in which everything falls right if these two meet again.
Scorthy Champ caught the eye in the Futurity Stakes (G3) in September when running green in the early stages and staying on strongly to the line. He went two places better in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (G1) and he is another by Mehmas with a large stride.
Stride Data, combined with our Par Sectionals, shows us a clear picture of why he was able to turn the tables on Henri Matisse this time.
As you can see from the tables above, the Futurity Stakes was run quite steadily initially, but then turned into a sprint compared to what we would expect:
In the National Stakes they went much faster to begin with, which created a greater test of stamina than when Scorthy Champ and Henri Matisse met previously:
Both times they have met, however, Scorthy Champ had a larger average stride and lower average stride frequency than Henri Matisse, suggesting this test of stamina over this trip was better suited to him where he could make more use of his stride, just like his paternal sister Believing:
Scorthy Champ
Futurity Stakes: Average Length 7.82m, Average Frequency 2.18 s/s
Vincent O’Brien National Stakes: Average Length 7.84m, Average Frequency 2.2 s/s
Henri Matisse
Futurity Stakes: Average Length 7.42m, Average Frequency 2.29 s/s
Vincent O’Brien National Stakes: Average Length 7.58m, Average Frequency 2.29 s/s
It will be interesting to see how the pair both progress, but their stride profiles suggest that, if they meet again, the result may be different depending on whether the race emphasis is on tactical speed or stamina.
Glossary
Par Sectionals: These compare a horse’s sectionals against the ‘optimum’ sectional times. They are the Par Sectional fractions for a race for that specific course and distance and based on the sectionals that winning horses have achieved in races achieving the best Time Index scores.
Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP): uses the sectionals to calculate the speed a horse covers over the final furlongs of a race, as a percentage of its overall race speed.
For races up to a mile, the final furlongs are the last two furlongs, for 1m1/2f and above it is the final three furlongs.
*For sectional information we primarily use data from Coursetrack, however for Doncaster, we used data from Total Performance Data
