Buy.Sell.Stay. February 2016 Market Report Pacific Coast Carmel, Monterey, Pebble Beach, Santa Cruz
2016 Intero Real Estate Services Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate and a wholly owned subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc. All rights reserved. Data provided by Trendgraphix February 2016.. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended as a solicitation if you are listed with another broker.
Executive Insights Home Sales Trend Upward The health of financial markets and a lack of inventory continue to be the biggest drivers of the Bay Area housing market. And with the stock market starting off the year strong, we’re also feeling a strong housing market here, with the expected seasonal slowing that often comes with the beginning of the year. “The tempo of the Bay Area housing market is tied very closely to the financial markets,” said Tom Tognoli, President and CEO of Intero Real Estate. “So much of the Bay Area’s wealth is tied up in stock options and stock purchase plans. As the financial markets go, people’s attitudes and pocket books tend to follow.” Many have been talking about the high-end of the housing market cooling off, which we’ve seen a bit. But that doesn’t mean no one’s in the market for high-end luxury homes. “Just last week, we sold a home in Atherton for over $8.5 million that was on the market for less than a week.” So it’s not a totally chilled market by any means. It’s still very much a seller’s market in the Bay Area. And while a lack of inventory continues to be a major challenge for buyers that usually means a quicker sale at a great price for sellers, those who are selling to move up are also finding it frustrating. The good news is the number of active listings increased at the state level for the first time in five months in January, and the Bay Area was part of the trend with an 8% increase in homes for sale compared to the previous month. “The fundamentals underlying the demand for housing fueled a healthy start to 2016,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. But she, along with other economists, continues to watch overall economic trends such as volatility in the equity market, that can potentially lead buyers and sellers to hold back and take a “wait-and-see” approach. So the market is starting strong, but with lack of homes and the uncertainty of an election year, we could see some slower growth. We like to watch the housing market numbers month to month because we always see noticeable changes that help our agents assess pricing and bidding strategies. Let’s take a look at the important numbers broken down into categories that are easy to understand. This will help you get clear on what’s happening in your market that can impact your home sale or purchase.
Market Highlights Pacific Coast
Total Homes for Sale
268
Luxury Homes for Sale*
76
*Homes for sale above $3 million.
Total Homes Sold
Average Days on Market
Average List Price
Average Sold Price
67
$3,240,000
61
$1,210,000
Inventory Pacific Coast
Total Number Of Homes:
316
368
400
379
315
258
268
287
232
200
241
250
Sold
261
298
300
363
349
350
356
400
For Sale
83
60
67
110
107
110
15-Oct
87
97
96
15-Sep
67
52
50
66
98
117
100
136
150
0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
It is a Seller’s Market Property Sales (Sold) February property sales were 67, the same as in February of 2015 and 11.7% higher than the 60 sales last month.
Inventory By The Numbers
Current Inventory (For Sale) Versus last year, the total number of homes available this month is lower by 30 units of 10.1%. This year’s smaller inventory means that buyers who waited to buy may have smaller selection to choose from. The number of current inventory is up 15.5% compared to the previous month. Property Under Contract (Pended) There was an increase of 27.6% in the pended properties in February, with 97 properties versus 76 last month. This month’s pended property sales were 14.1% higher than at this time last year.
Home Price Range
Homes For Sale
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
0
-100%
$500K $1M
61
-36%
$1M - $3M
131
-4%
$3M - $5M
36
16%
$5M - $10M
24
14%
$10M +
16
60%
Pricing Pacific Coast
Average Prices in $,000:
For Sale Price
Sold Price
3500
$3,240 $2,868
3000 $2,563
2500
$2,596
$2,693
$2,413
$2,378 $2,394
$2,480
$2,570
$2,945
$3,028
$2,678 $2,669 $2,477
2000
1500
$1,634 $1,351
1000
$1,171 $1,121
$1,335 $1,131 $1,151
$1,034
$1,146
$1,081
$1,199
$1,315
$1,548 $1,210
$1,206
500
0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
The Average For Sale Price is Appreciating The Average For Sale Price in February was $3,240,000, up 24.8% from $2,596,000 in February of 2015 and up 7% from $3,028,000 last month.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral The Average Sold Price in February was $1,210,000, down 10.4% from $1,351,000 in February of 2015 and down 21.8% from $1,548,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral The Median Sold Price in February was $917,000, up 11.8% from $820,000 in February of 2015 and down 3.3% from $948,000 last month.
Pricing By The Numbers
Average Price Per Square Foot.
$595
-19.7% Month over Month
On The Market Pacific Coast
Average Days On Market 100 87
90
79
80 70
75
72
68
65
73
70 63
55
60
69
61
53 46
50 38
40 30 20 10 0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
The Days on Market Shows Downward Trend The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for February 2016 was 61, down 3.2% from 63 days last month and down 22.8% from 79 days in February of last year.
DOM By The Numbers Home Price Range
Days on Market
Year Over Year % Difference
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising
< $500K
39
-60%
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 94% is up 1.1% % from last month and up from 6.8% % in February of last year.
$500K $1M
50
-4%
$1M - $3M
81
-12%
$3M - $5M
1
-287%
$5M - $10M
70
-54%
$10M +
0
NA