Buy.Sell.Stay. February 2016 Market Report Wine Country
2016 Intero Real Estate Services Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate and a wholly owned subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc. All rights reserved. Data provided by Trendgraphix February 2016.. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended as a solicitation if you are listed with another broker.
Executive Insights Home Sales Trend Upward The health of financial markets and a lack of inventory continue to be the biggest drivers of the Bay Area housing market. And with the stock market starting off the year strong, we’re also feeling a strong housing market here, with the expected seasonal slowing that often comes with the beginning of the year. “The tempo of the Bay Area housing market is tied very closely to the financial markets,” said Tom Tognoli, President and CEO of Intero Real Estate. “So much of the Bay Area’s wealth is tied up in stock options and stock purchase plans. As the financial markets go, people’s attitudes and pocket books tend to follow.” Many have been talking about the high-end of the housing market cooling off, which we’ve seen a bit. But that doesn’t mean no one’s in the market for high-end luxury homes. “Just last week, we sold a home in Atherton for over $8.5 million that was on the market for less than a week.” So it’s not a totally chilled market by any means. It’s still very much a seller’s market in the Bay Area. And while a lack of inventory continues to be a major challenge for buyers that usually means a quicker sale at a great price for sellers, those who are selling to move up are also finding it frustrating. The good news is the number of active listings increased at the state level for the first time in five months in January, and the Bay Area was part of the trend with an 8% increase in homes for sale compared to the previous month. “The fundamentals underlying the demand for housing fueled a healthy start to 2016,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. But she, along with other economists, continues to watch overall economic trends such as volatility in the equity market, that can potentially lead buyers and sellers to hold back and take a “wait-and-see” approach. So the market is starting strong, but with lack of homes and the uncertainty of an election year, we could see some slower growth. We like to watch the housing market numbers month to month because we always see noticeable changes that help our agents assess pricing and bidding strategies. Let’s take a look at the important numbers broken down into categories that are easy to understand. This will help you get clear on what’s happening in your market that can impact your home sale or purchase.
Market Highlights Wine Country
Total Homes for Sale
55
Luxury Homes for Sale*
6
*Homes for sale above $3 million.
Total Homes Sold
Average Days on Market
Average List Price
Average Sold Price
20
$1,621,000
68
$707,000
Inventory Wine Country
Total Number Of Homes:
For Sale
Sold
89
91
68
76
70
82
84
80
89
93
90
87
100
10
20
24
27
29
18
24
20
32
33
30
39
41
46
50
48
41
40
55
55
58 48
57
54
50
59
60
0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
It is a Seller’s Market Property Sales (Sold) February property sales were 20, down 16.7% from 24 in February of 2015 and 16.7% lower than the 24 sales last month. Current Inventory (For Sale) Versus last year, the total number of homes available this month is lower by 2 units of 3.5%. This year’s smaller inventory means that buyers who waited to buy may have smaller selection to choose from. The number of current inventory is up 41% compared to the previous month. Property Under Contract (Pended) There was the same number of pended properties in February, 27 properties. This month’s pended property sales were 22.9% lower than at this time last year.
Inventory By The Numbers Home Price Range
Homes For Sale
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
6
-63%
$500K $1M
25
79%
$1M - $3M
18
-14%
$3M - $5M
4
100%
$5M - $10M
1
$10M +
1
0% -67%
Pricing Wine Country
Average Prices in $,000: 2500
Sold Price
$2,265 $2,078
2000
For Sale Price
$1,924
$1,978
$2,070
$2,012
$1,844
$2,059 $2,048 $1,904
$1,999
$1,962 $1,800
$1,774 $1,621
1500
$1,205
1000 $823
$806
$769
$851
$960
$1,076 $942
$983
$919
$860
$974
$1,029 $707
$643
500
14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
0
The Average For Sale Price is Depreciating The Average For Sale Price in February was $1,621,000, down 22% from $2,078,000 in February of 2015 and down 8.6% from $1,774,000 last month.
Pricing By The Numbers
The Average Sold Price is Depreciating The Average Sold Price in February was $707,000, down 14.1% from $823,000 in February of 2015 and down 31.3% from $1,029,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral The Median Sold Price in February was $633,000, up 17.2% from $540,000 in February of 2015 and the same as last month.
Average Price Per Square Foot.
$441
-20.8% Month over Month
On The Market Wine Country
Average Days On Market 90
80
80
77
77 64
70
67 61
60
58
53
56
72
71 65
68
59
46
50 40 30 20 10 0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for February 2016 was 68, down 5.6% from 72 days last month and down 11.7% from 77 days in February of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 98% is up 3.2% % from last month and up from 2.1% % in February of last year.
DOM By The Numbers Home Price Range
Days on Market
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
76
9%
$500K $1M
67
72%
$1M - $3M
56
-57%
$3M - $5M
0
NA
$5M - $10M
0
NA
$10M +
0
0%