strategic transportation & tourism solutions
Advancements in Aircraft Technology Presented by Rob Beynon InterVISTAS Consulting Group IAAE Canada Conference, Victoria, BC, June 6th 2012
Aviation Trends
Global Air Passenger Traffic
Source: International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA).
2
Average Annual Forecast Growth Rate of Passenger Traffic
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2011-2030 3
Boeing & Airbus Projected Aircraft Deliveries
Source: Airbus and Boeing websites, The Airline Monitor Jan/Feb 2012.
4
New Aircraft Forecast Deliveries (Long-Term) 300
A350
B787
250
200
150
100
50
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Airline Monitor – Commercial Aircraft Monitor, Jan-Feb. 2012
5
Aircraft Design
$Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
•
Jan-07
U.S. $ per barrel
Fuel Efficiency Crude Oil Spot Prices January 2007 to March 2012
Oil prices continue to rise
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
7
Composite Construction •
Composite aircraft designs allows for lighter aircraft and less restrictions on design
•
Boeing 787 constructed with composites allows for larger windows
•
A350 XWB will be over 50% composites
8
Fuel Efficiency •
Rising fuel costs leading to redesign of aircraft, retooling of engines •
•
A320Neo, B737 MAX
Need for greater efficiency and longer range
9
Increasing attention to in-cabin experience •
Lower cabin pressure = greater comfort
•
Transparent rooflines, mood lighting, ergonomics related to changing demographic of passengers including more women passengers
•
Winglets also reduce in-cabin noise
Source: Airbus 10
Turbo props and business aircraft •
The growing orders for Q400 signals improvements for short-haul routes from new turboprop technologies •
•
and in-cabin noise cancellation
Bombardier projects strong biz aircraft growth to 2030
Source: Bombardier 11
In 2010 the busiest traffic regions and pairs remain in Western Europe…
Source: EUROCONTROL – Business Aviation in Europe 2010 Briefing
12
… but the growth can be found in Turkey and the Ukraine
Source: EUROCONTROL – Business Aviation in Europe 2010 Briefing
13
Fight Deck Enhancements •
•
Corporate and commercial aircraft benefit •
Information concentrated in smaller areas
•
Allows for flight crew ease of control
Vision Flight Deck is industry’s first to feature synthetic vision imagery on HUD’s
Existing Technology
Advanced Technology
14
Enhancements to Small Aircraft •
Float planes are benefiting from technological advancements •
Improved cockpit designs and navigational instruments allows for IFR navigation
15
Engine Technology
Engine Technology •
Engines are quieter, lighter and more fuel efficient (i.e. GEnx)
•
Continual testing of bio fuels in search of alternate fuels (Lufthansa trans Atlantic flights)
17
Engine Technology •
High Efficiency Engines •
Twin ETOPS of 330 min for B777 aircraft & eventually the B787
•
Airbus studying 350min ETOPS for A350 XWB
•
Longer flights to reach more points non-stop Shaded areas represent flight restrictions
18
Impacts of Long Range Aircraft
Airport Impacts of Long Range Aircraft •
Some airports may be bypassed
•
Airports now focused on connectivity
•
New aircraft create new non-stop markets •
UA IAH – AKL / JL NRT – BOS / ET ADD – YYZ*
(*Currently served with B777 with stop in FCO until B787 introduced on route) 20
Ultra Long-Haul Flights •
US gateways rank high in ultra long haul sectors •
•
•
Longest is SIN – EWR at 10,000nm, 18h55min flying time
Gulf carriers looking to create one-stop global network through geographic advantage on longdistance routes •
Though most flights are within 3000 – 4000nm
•
Long hauls are focused on Americas and Australia
Asia is aviation’s busiest region but few ultra long haul services except to US
21
Central Asia as the Centre of the World
22
US Gateways with Long Haul Flights • Examples of destinations over 6,000nm from East and West Coasts
Between
9,000nm+
New York
Singapore
Los Angeles
8,000nm+
7,000nm+
6,000nm+
Bombay
Abu Dhabi
Delhi
Dubai
Shanghai
Tokyo
Bangkok
Hong Kong
Auckland
Dubai
Melbourne
Beijing
Singapore
Sydney
Istanbul
Tel Aviv
Taipei 23
Persian Gulf Airports with Long Haul Flights • Examples of destinations over 6,000nm from Persian Gulf Between Doha
Dubai
9,000nm+
8,000nm+
7,000nm+
6,000nm+
Houston
Melbourne
New York
Sao Paolo
Washington
Houston
Atlanta
Toronto
Los Angeles
Sydney
San Francisco Washington
24
Future Sectors in Long Haul Market •
Better links between Oceana and India
•
Northern Asia to points in Africa and South America
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Long haul aircraft may enable more effective trade flows
•
North Asia – Latin American market is underserviced •
•
Currently need to connect via Europe or North America
Advancements in aircraft will shrink markets further
25
Air Traffic Control
Air Traffic Control •
FAA’s NextGEN Program
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Europe’s EUROCONTROL SESAR
•
Improving technology creating:
•
•
Better utilization of space
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Sequencing tools improve airport capacity
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Direct routings (cost and time savings)
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Improved situational awareness (safety)
ADS-B will support Airborne Traffic Situational Awareness •
Provides in-cockpit position information on other aircraft 27
FAA’s NextGEN
Source: FAA 28
FAA’s NextGEN
New WAAS Coverage Clears the Way for New Access to Airports The FAA has published more than 3000 Wide Area Augmentation System or WAAS approaches in the US.
Source: FAA 29
Future of Transport
Future of Aviation
31
Future of Aviation Dragon is a free-flying, reusable spacecraft developed by SpaceX under NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. The Dragon spacecraft is made up of a pressurized capsule and unpressurized trunk used for transport of cargo and/or crew members.
Source: SpaceX 32
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