Canadian Aviation: By the Numbers Airports Canada 2013 11 April 2013
Dr. Mike Tretheway InterVISTAS Consulting Chief Strategy Officer, Chief Economist
Passengers Movements
Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada 2
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Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada 3
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Canada Air Passenger Traffic
28%
40%
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada 4
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Time Series of US Air Passenger Traffic
Source:1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS 5
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US vs Canada Pax Traffic 1990-2012
Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Canada-Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada US- 1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS . 6
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Commercial Aircraft Movements
Source: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canada. 7
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Total GA Movements for Canada
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 401-007, 401-0015 and 401-0021. 8
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Canadian Air Cargo
No accurate data
9
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Fares, Load Factors, etc.
Average Fare: Canada Nominal: Not Adjusted for Inflation
Source: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-X p = preliminary Major Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000
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Real Average Fare: Canada
Sources: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-X Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index p = preliminary air fare data Major Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000 12
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Load Factor- Canada
Source: Aviation in Canada, Statistics Canada. Transport Canada 13
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Passengers per Aircraft- Canada 1980-2011
Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canada and Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada 14
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Scheduled Flight Frequency: Domestic Canada
Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages 79%
72%
74%
75%
Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012. 15
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Scheduled Seat Capacity: Domestic Canada
Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages 49%
37%
42%
50%
Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012. 16
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Commercial Aircraft: Canada
Source: Transport Canada Registered Commercial Aircraft database
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Number of Employees
Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X 18
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Financial
Canadian Air Carrier Total Revenue and Expenses
Source: Statistics Canada, 51-004-X 20
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Return on Assets for Canadian Air Carriers
Source: Statistics Canada, 1980-1985- Aviation in Canada. 2005-2011, 51-004-X. 21
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Airports Security
Total Capital Investments by Canadian Airports
$15b $9b since 2004
Note: Montreal includes both Trudeau and Mirabel Airports Source: Airport Annual Reports. 23
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Rents Paid to Transport Canada by Canadian Airports
Source: Transport Canada Annual Reports. 24
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Air Travellers’ Security Charge & Expenditure Revenue vs. Op Expense 700 600
Million $
500 400 ATSC rev
300
CATSA op exp
200 100
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-
Source: CATSA Annual Reports and Public Accounts of Canada, Annual Financial Review 25
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Aviation Security Since 2003 • ATSC Revenues:
$4.3b
• CATSA Op Exp:
$4.2b
• CATSA Investment:
$0.9b
• First 2 years: •
•
Revenue Expenses
$830mn $410mn ($616mn)
Is aviation security merely a benefit to pax? Or is it national security, with benefits to Canada? 26
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Fuel
Fuel Cost per Litre for Canadian Air Carriers
Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X 28
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Fuel Litres per RPK
Source: 1970-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transport Canada 29
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Oil Price Consensus Forecast
•Its not down •Its not back to $145
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If History Repeats the Swing‌. Oil Price with Full Historical Range
Note the scale $300 $250 $200 Upper range $150
Base price forecast Lower range
$100 $50 $2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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2015
2016
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Safety
Accidents for Canadian Commercial Aircraft
Source: 2001-2011 Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transportation Safety Board of Canada 1970-1990 Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 33
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Economic Update
Canada Real GDP Growth
Annualized Y-O-Y Growth Rate
Historical Data
Forecast Data
Sources: Historical and Forecast Data from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Database, October 2012. Realizing the vision together 35
Annualized Y-O-Y Growth Rate
US Real GDP Growth - Forecast
Forecast Data
Source: 2007-2012 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013-2017 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011 36
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Canada Real GDP (Historical)
Recessions are wiggles in a steadily growing economy
Sources: Historical Canada GDP (1961 to 2012)37– Statistics Canada.
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Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada 38
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Thank You
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