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Feature Articles PAGE 7
Regional Reports PAGE 12
Aviation News PAGE 16
Traffic Updates PAGE 20
InterVISTAS News
January
2014 IN THIS ISSUE:
Foreword
HELLO AND WELCOME TO THE JANUARY 2014 EDITION OF THE AVIATION INTELLIGENCE REPORT.
With the first of this month marking the 100th anniversary of the first commercial air service (operated by the St. Petersburg-Tampa Airboat Line), we thought it timely to bring you a revised look as well as expanded aviation coverage. This month we add a feature article from our partner company, NACO, written by Robbert Weeda. Our newest staff member, William “Bill” Swelbar writes on the current state of airline mergers in the United States. Eddy Bordignon gives us perspective
Deborah Meehan President and CEO InterVISTAS Consulting Group
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on airport noise models, and Zoe Lindeman discusses a SITA study on the role of mobile devices for passengers.
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■■ Our Regional Reports section includes: ■■ A look at the current U.S. regulation process for in-flight cell phone use, by Steve Martin; ■■ The need to expand Mexico’s airport infrastructure, by Kenneth Currie;
Vic Prins Director, Business Line Aviation Royal HaskoningDHV
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A summary of the UK Airport Commission’s report on the need for runway capacity, by Ian Kincaid; A review of Canada’s current aviation issues, by Debra Ward; and The booming aviation industry in Asia, by Doris Mak.
We hope you enjoy the inaugural 2014 edition of AIR. Best regards,
Rik Krabbendam Managing Director NACO
PREPARING FOR NEW SCREENING SYSTEMS Feature Feature
The continuous change in regulations for passenger and baggage security has a major impact on airports. Airports around the world continue to be affected by the changing regulatory environment with regard to hand- and hold-baggage security screening. As a world leader in airport development for 65 years, NACO delivers innovative solutions according to international and local standards.
Robbert Weeda Senior Consultant & Project Manager, Special Airport Systems, The Hague Possibilities for in-cabin luggage to include Liquids, Aerosols and Gels (LAGs) will gradually be expanded. In Europe, the first steps will be implemented shortly, as Phase 1 of the EU regulations start on 31 January 2014. This will affect all passengers’ security checkpoints in order to screen hand luggage. These rules banning LAGs from in-cabin luggage were established in 2006 after attempts were made by terrorists to detonate homemade liquid explosives that had been brought on board in hand luggage. The European Commission (EC) will take steps over the next few years to lift the ban on LAGs on board. These changes will imply that measures (processes and equipment) must be taken in the security filters in order to check these LAGs.
equipment selection and procurement, realization and operational readiness to facilitate these provisional measures.
In recent years, equipment, security processes and procedures for rapid and reliable screening of LAGs have undergone substantial improvements and will continue doing so in the near future. These changes will have a positive effect on the performance and throughput.
Further changes will soon be required as a result of newly introduced changes in European regulations (which are also followed by many countries elsewhere). In most HBS systems, EDS equipment is being used in accordance with ECAC Standard 2. European legislation, however, requires that “as of 1 September 2014 Standard 3 shall be applied for (all new installed) EDS equipment. All HBS systems using EDS shall meet Standard 3 by 1 September 2020.”
To ensure that longtime client, Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, is ready to implement security measures that comply with upcoming EC regulations, NACO’s special airport systems professionals have been working on the LAG 2014 project. In order to comply with the new EC Phase 1 LAG regulations, provisional measures will be in place as of 31 January 2014. A team managed by NACO is responsible for all process re-design, procedure changes,
A second significant change will take place in the field of 100 % Hold Baggage Screening within automated baggage handling systems. In the past 15 years, both large and small baggage handling systems for departing and transfer bags have been provided with in line Explosives Detection Systems (EDS). In addition to safety, processing baggage through the airport must be efficient but flexible to avoid delays. This requires Hold Baggage Screening concepts in which various automatic detection technologies are effectively applied in the different screening levels.
concept and the baggage systems. Standard 3 machines are larger, heavier and require a custom made integration into the transport and controls systems of the HBS. NACO’s Special Airport Systems team (including UK based IPM Integrated Project Management) assists clients (such as Heathrow and Schiphol) with planning and preparing for a gradual and smooth transition to Standard 3 within the existing or new build baggage handling systems. From conceptual design, optioneering, equipment selection, (re-) design of the HBS facilities and controls system, to specifications preparation and procurement support, our professionals provide tailor made solutions to the upcoming BHS challenges in new and existing airport terminal buildings. Any specific questions or remarks in these fields? Please contact NACO Special Airports Systems department.
At this moment in time Standard 3 technology is used on a small scale in automated baggage systems. Applying Standard 3 will have a major influence and impact on both the screening
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Foreword Feature
AMERICAN AIRLINES AND US AIRWAYS: THE LATEST BIG U.S. DEAL Thirty-five years after the U.S. airline industry was deregulated, what some predicted in 1978 has finally come to fruition. The idea that there would be three or four mega carriers dominating a once fragmented industry seemed a bit farfetched to some at the time. Yet today four carriers, all involved in significant mergers since 2008, control more than 85 percent of the U.S. domestic market. They are Delta, United, Southwest and now American. Bill Swelbar Executive Vice President Washington D.C.
Unlike the three mergers that preceded it, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) sued to block the merger of American and US Airways on anti-trust grounds. The companies pointed out from the beginning that this was a complementary merger with very little route overlap. DOJ saw something very different in their initial analysis. The suit ultimately settled and the newly combined carrier was forced to divest gates and slots at multiple airports around the U.S. Organized labor played a critical role in the deal’s evolution. Labor at American Airlines was in the throes of seeing their contracts attacked through the bankruptcy process. US Airways employees across nearly every class and craft were the lowest paid among the U.S. network carriers. Both organized groups saw the merger as a way to improve their relative places in the negotiations cycle. US Airways management played its cards brilliantly with labor in order to get them onboard by offering them improved wages and working conditions as compared to what either carrier could have offered as stand-alone airlines. A case can easily be made that this transaction would not have been possible without the buy-in from labor.
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Now the really hard part comes for the New American: the meshing of operations, labor and technology in a way that does not disrupt or cause angst among customers. The merger of Northwest into Delta went very smoothly as compared to prior mergers in the U.S. and thus has become the model of how to do it. The mergers of United and Continental and AirTran into Southwest have not gone as smoothly. Disruptions impact the bottom line and result in a merger not realizing the promised synergy benefits that the combined carrier might produce for financial stakeholders. The New American will need a near flawless integration of people and systems to achieve the synergy targets promised. The one advantage that the New American has that the other mergers did not have at the respective times of consummation is that macroeconomic indicators are turning to strong positives from the mixed signals the economy was previously giving. These tailwinds, when coupled with a more stable industry structure, will mitigate some of the synergy risk that the other mergers faced.
Consolidation and “capacity discipline” by the network carriers are reasons given for the U.S. industry’s financial turnaround. Each has contributed to make the industry less volatile. Managements are focused on earning a return on invested capital for the first time in memory. Now the question is: is the turnaround sustainable?
Feature
TRANSPORT CANADA’S NOISE MODEL AND COMPATIBILITY GUIDELINES With Transport Canada indicating they will no longer provide updates to the NEF Model, we need to consider an alternative approch.
Eddy Bordignon Consultant Vancouver
The basis for land use compatibility guidelines around airports in Canada is the Transport Canada Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) and the Noise Exposure Projection (NEP). This model is used to generate noise contours based on a number of criteria: ■■ Mix of aircraft types Aircraft have different footprints for the amount of noise they generate. Newer generation aircraft generate considerably less noise than their predecessors. ■■ Number of day & night movements Night time flights are weighed more heavily than daytime flights. ■■ Runway Layout Runway orientation dictates the direction the noise impact footprint will take. ■■ Airport distribution across runways Spreading aircraft between runways reduces the concentration of noise impacts. ■■ Arrival and departure procedures For safety reasons, aircraft must land and take off into the wind. However, during calm wind situations, preferential use of runways can displace aircraft noise away from populated areas. The NEF cannot be directly measured and is calculated by time - averaging the annual aircraft operations at an airport using the aforementioned criteria. The NEF system was designed to assist with land use planning decisions by correlating aircraft noise exposure with the anticipated subjective response based on different NEF values. NEF values greater than 40 denote areas with high noise impacts; values below 25 indicate relatively low impacts. Many airports that produce Master Plans recognize that much of the land use planning
involves projections beyond five years into the future. Aircraft fleet mixes and runway configurations are most likely to vary from current conditions. In order to assist provincial and municipal authorities with long-term land use planning the NEP is used. It is based on a projection of aircraft movements greater than 10 years into the future and involves aircraft types and runway configurations that may materialize within this period. Relationship between NEF Contours & Land Use Transport Canada publishes a document entitled Land Use In The Vicinity of Airports and makes recommendations for land uses and construction types appropriate under different NEF conditions. Sixty-three different land uses are described in tables within the document. The latest amendments came in May 2005 and maintained continued maximum level of noise impact for residential land uses at NEF 30. The implementation of recommendations from Land Use In The Vicinity of Airports is a provincial responsibility. Alberta and Ontario have, for example, created regulations to incorporate certain aspects of the recommendations. For the most part, however, jurisdiction for governing specific land uses around airports has been left to regional and local municipalities. Changes in Technology Transport Canada has indicated that they are no longer providing updates to the NEF Model, entitled NEF CALC. This model is used to produce the NEF and NEP contours that airports use for planning purposes. Without updates to the model, users will not be able to accurately model noise footprints of
newly manufactured aircraft such as the upcoming Airbus A350 series as well as Next Generation Boeing and Airbus aircraft with new engine upgrades.
One possible solution is to use the U.S. Integrated Noise Model (INM). This model is continually updated by the FAA and includes recent aircraft types which are not featured in Transport Canada’s NEF CALC program. Adopting the U.S. model in Canada environment will introduce challenges. The contours produced by the INM model are narrower than those produced by NEF CALC. Planning contours would be drawn closer to the airport, shrinking the protection area. This may cause regional and local planners and airports to review development guidelines for protecting surrounding lands for development. For example, areas under NEF 30 allow for residential development. The INM model’s smaller contour would increase the allowable area for residential development as shown in the difference between the blue and orange contours on the diagram. Further collaboration will be needed between airports and provincial and municipal planners in order to determine the best approach for future long-term land use planning surrounding airports. InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 5
Feature
ARE MOBILE DEVICES THE NEXT BIG REVENUE GENERATORS FOR AIRLINES? SITA, a provider of global information and telecommunication solutions for aviation, conducted a global survey recently to gauge passengers’ likelihood of utilizing airline mobile applications for air travel purposes. As smartphones are an integral tool for business travelers to stay connected to email and news, airlines are trying to increase the use of mobile applications for booking tickets or purchasing ancillary services. Zoe Lindemuth Project Analyst Boston
What Did the Survey Find? The survey found that 76% of the travelers carry smartphones, suggesting that mobile applications are a logical way for airlines to inform travelers about their travel. Currently, passengers are very comfortable using their mobile for informational purposes such as checking flight status or finding airport directions. However, the majority of travelers continue to use the airlines’ websites and kiosks to purchase tickets and check in for their flights. The survey found that people were hesitant to utilize their mobile phone to purchase tickets due to usability concerns such reliability of phones and the difficulty navigating on such a small screen. Creating travel arrangements and travel in general can be frustrating, so people want to use modes that they are comfortable with and have demonstrated reliability. Yet, just like the utilization of online travel agencies and airline websites, as travelers learn that
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the airline’s applications are well designed and work, they will begin to shift their thinking. Interestingly, the survey found that respondents were slightly more likely to purchase ancillary services and change travel plans on their mobile device than they were to book their ticket. This indicates a passenger preference for buying services on the go when they add to the enjoyment of the flight but are less critical than the ticket reservation. Based on the survey and the commentary during the presentation it seems that the selling of ancillary services is the major opportunity in mobile applications. It not only will give the passenger the ability to buy extra legroom or an upgrade on the way to the airport, but it will also be a revenue generator for the airlines. Allowing travelers, especially business travelers, the constant opportunity to purchase the “little extras” will not only increase the airlines’ revenue, it will also make
the passenger’s trip more enjoyable. Mobile applications will be the next big thing for travelers allowing them to stay informed and connected to their travel plans at all times. The key for the airlines will be to make the applications reliable and effortless to use so travelers will begin to use them for purchasing. Once the traveler feels they can successfully complete a transaction as complicated as booking a flight, there is no doubt that mobile applications will be more widely adopted.
UNITED STATES REPORT Regional Reports
Parties Takes Sides as U.S. Considers Allowing Inflight Use of Cell Phones.
Steve Martin Senior Vice President Washington D.C.
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved relaxing the current ban on in-flight cell phone use. The FCC now plans to invite public comment on a proposal that, if adopted, would give airline carriers the ability to allow passengers to use their mobile wireless devices, such as cellphones, to communicate with cellular frequency equipment while flying above 10,000 feet. The FCC approved the issue at its meeting on December 12, 2013. The next step is public comment and further FCC review. The issue before the FCC is whether advances in technology no longer warrant – on a technological basis – the prohibition of in-flight mobile phone use. This is purely a technical decision; it would leave airlines free to develop any in-flight phone usage policy they may wish. The proposed rules would make clear that there is no right to operate cellphones on planes as a default. According to the FCC, the potential change also does not mean the Commission has endorsed phone calls from airplanes. Technology exists that would allow airlines to elect to allow voice and/or data service. The FCC pointed out that its responsibility is limited to the technical issues involved, not the behavioral issues. The technical question is whether mobile devices would cause interference to terrestrial networks. Beyond this interference concern, it is the FCC’s goal to put the decision of what kinds of wireless data services airline passengers enjoy inflight in the hands of the airlines. Whether an airline determines to allow passengers to use data
services, texting, and /or to make voice calls from planes in flight will be determined by the airline.
a bill prohibiting in-flight cell phone voice communications on commercial aviation flights.
The Association of Flight Attendants-CWA immediately came out in opposition. “Flight attendants—as first responders and the last line of defense in our nation’s aviation system—understand the importance of maintaining a calm cabin environment. Any situation that is loud, divisive and possibly disruptive is not only unwelcome but also unsafe….[F]light attendants also are concerned that in emergencies, cell phone use would drown out announcements and distract from lifesaving instructions from the crew.” The AFA also argued that passengers want to maintain the ban on in-flight cell phone use.
“Let’s face it, airplane cabins are by nature noisy, crowded, and confined,” Shuster said. “For the most part, passengers are looking for ways to make their flights go by as quickly and quietly as possible. For passengers, being able to use their phones and tablets to get online or send text messages is a useful inflight option. But if passengers are going to be forced to listen to the gossip in the aisle seat, it’s going to make for a very long flight. For those few hours in the air with 150 other people, it’s just common sense that we all keep our personal lives to ourselves and stay off the phone.”
Members of Congress were quick to express their views on the possibility – and all seemed to be negative. Sen. Mark Begich (Alaska) said that the “the thought of listening to the constant babble of phone conversations during commercial flights already makes my head hurt” and said he was concerned about in-flight safety. Sen. Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) said that the government would need to hire more air marshals to handle the on-board fights triggered by “two million passengers, hurtling through space, trapped in 17-inch-wide seats, yapping their innermost thoughts.” Rep. Bud Shuster, Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, introduced the “Prohibiting InFlight Voice Communications on Mobile Wireless Devices Act of 2013,”
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Regional Foreword Reports
LATIN AMERICA REPORT Mexico City’s airport serves record passengers; expansion alternatives considered.
Kenneith Currie Executive Vice President, Finance and Privatization San Francisco Mexico City’s Benito Juarez International Airport (“MEX”) handled a record 29.5 million passengers 2013, more than twice the traffic at Cancun International Airport, the nation’s second-biggest measured by passengers. MEX accommodated 36,391 aircraft movements in August 2013, which is similar to the volume handled at Newark Liberty International Airport. Airline passenger traffic in Mexico as a whole increased 8% during the first 10 months of 2013, following 2012’s all-time high of 56.8 million for the period, according to the Ministry of Communications and Transportation. Grupo AeroMexico and lowcost carriers Volaris and Interjet collectively have a record number of new aircraft on order, indicating that traffic and airline activity is likely to continue to increase over the next few years. “The saturation we’ve had for several years in the Mexico City airport keeps us from
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having more tourism, more investment, more business in the capital,” said Minister Gerardo Ruiz Esparza, Minister of Communications and Transportation. “It’s something that should be resolved as soon as possible.” Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto may expand the congested MEX, the busiest in Latin America, on government-owned land east of the capital, his top transportation official said. Construction could begin as soon as 2014, Ruiz Esparza said. Investment in Benito Juarez International Airport would amount to about $5 billion, according to an estimate by Luis Zarate, head of a trade group for builders. Even without a firm commitment, Ruiz Esparza’s comments were the most detailed yet from the Pena Nieto administration about its objectives after studying airport options for months and forcing airlines to move
some flights to non-peak times. The airport surpassed its hourly takeoff and landing limits an average of once a week last year, according to the ministry. Pena Nieto, who was elected in 2012, floated the idea of airport expansion during a June interview in which he also raised the prospect of replacing the existing facility and upgrading airports near Mexico City to create an alternative to Benito Juarez International. Ruiz Esparza said yesterday that in addition to expanding Benito Juarez International, Mexico also may build a second runway at the airport in Toluca, 40 miles (64 kilometers) west of downtown Mexico City, to handle rising airline traffic.
EUROPE REPORT Regional Feature Reports
The UK considers additonal runway capacity for London, while the EU looks to reduce aviation-related emissions from new airlines.
Ian Kincaid Vice President, Economic Analysis London UK Airports Commission Publishes Interim Report On December 17th 2013, the Airports Commission published an interim report concluding that there is a need for one additional runway to be in operation in the UK’s south east by 2030. Additional analysis in the report suggests a second new runway will be needed by 2050. The document also notes that it will be pushing forward with further analysis and study on proposals of new runways at two locations which include: ■■ Gatwick Airport Gatwick Airport Ltd’s proposal for an additional runway to be placed south of the current runway. ■■ Heathrow Heathrow Airport Ltd’s proposal for a new 3,500m runway situated to the northwest. A proposal from Heathrow Hub extending the existing north runway to a length of over 6,000m, allowing it to be operated as two separate runways. Additional recommendations by the report include a call to immediately improve the use of existing runway capacity. This would be achieved through the use of an ‘optimization strategy’, which includes collaborative airport decision making, changes to airspace allowing performance based navigation, and improved adherence to schedules through enhanced en-route traffic management.
Europe Targeting Low Emissions and Fuel Burn with the Clean Sky 2 Research Program Europe is looking to reduce fuel burn and emissions by 20-30% from 2014 levels for any airliners that enter service in the 2025-35 timeframe. This is expected to be achieved through the use of increased integration of systems, structures and propulsion, to be demonstrated under the Clean Sky 2 research program. The research program, which is awaiting political approval, is scheduled to commence this year and focus on large-scale integrated demonstrations that will boost the performance of technologies aimed at next generation commercial airliners, regional aircraft, business jets and rotorcraft. An example of the program’s initiatives includes a flight test of a modified A340-300, which will be equipped with natural laminar-flow wing sections and adjusted to provide dragreducing airflow. The Clean Sky 2 proposal is expected to conclude in 2023, with a total budget of €4.05 billion. The European Union is expected to cover €1.8 billion of this amount, up from the €800 million it committed to the initiative’s previous iteration, Clean Sky, which will finish in 2017. Alongside the fuel burn and emissions target reductions, Clean Sky 2 looks to lower nitrogen oxide emissions by 20-40%, as well as reduce noise emissions by up to 75%.
The next step for the commission is to proceed with a detailed evaluation of the options listed for Gatwick and Heathrow. The results will be identified before a public consultation, expected to take place during the fall of 2014. InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 9
Regional Reports
CANADA REPORT Canadian carries expand domestic and transatlantic services and a new air services agreement offers expanded Asian services. Edmonton closes its City Centre Airport while security enhancements are implemented at ports of entry following the Aviators General report.
Debra Ward Executive Consultant Ottawa
New Ultra Low-Fare Carrier Planned for Western Canada Three aviation industry veterans are working to launch a new “ultra-low fare” carrier to serve Western Canada, modeled after Ryanair, Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines. Called Jetlines, the carrier, with a planned fall 2014 launch, will, target Northern BC and other underserved and non-served communities. The plan calls for Airbus 319s and 320s. Edmonton City Centre Airport Closes With the decommissioning of its last runway, Edmonton’s City Centre Airport is now a part of the past. Its land will be converted to a community that will eventually house 30,000 people. Called Blatchford Field when it opened in 1927, the airport was at the center of a Canadian aviation boom, solidifying Edmonton’s reputation as the Gateway to the North. It was known to generations of Canadian school children for World War I Ace Wop May’s heroic 2,000-kilometre round trip in an open cockpit biplane to Fort Vermilion with medicine to stop a diphtheria outbreak. Canada and Taiwan Expand Air Agreement A new air agreement will continue and enhance the expansion of direct air service between Canada and Taiwan, increasing the number of passenger flights between the two countries from 13 per week to 17 immediately, and again to 21 per week in November 2014. The agreement also removes the cap on cargo flights.
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CBSA Responds to Auditor General’s Report The latest Auditor General’s Report identified a number of recommendations to improve border control at ports of entry. These included asking the Canada Border Service Agency to implement its improvements to the quality of Advance Passenger Information and Passenger Name Record data by its stated deadline of June 2014 and to implement its action plan in response to recommendations from its 2013 internal audit of lookout processes by the stated March 2014 deadline. The Agency, in its formal response to the report, stated that a detailed work plan that has been reviewed and validated by the Office of the Auditor General (OAG) is being implemented. The Auditor General’s report also recognized the Agency’s progress in developing and implementing a comprehensive risk management framework and National Targeting Program.
WestJet, Air Canada Expanding Services WestJet’s successful launch of its Encore service will lead to new routes, with a prediction of cross-country service by 2015. Encore had eight planes by year-end 2013 and is expected to grow to 16 in 2014. WestJet will also make its first trans-Atlantic flight next summer, offering daily flights to Dublin. Air Canada’s low-fare rouge is enjoying success as well. Starting with four aircraft and 23 routes last July, it is expected to grow to 17 aircraft by March 2014 and 35 routes by June 2014.
ASIA-PACIFIC REPORT Regional Reports
With global recovery uneven, aviation in Asia is doing well, while Airbus continues to dominate in India.
Doris Mak Director, Special Projects Vancouver
Aviation Industry in Asia is Booming Rising incomes in Southeast Asia over the last 10 years have driven the growth of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the region. This same growth is sparking substantial demand for industry workers, and causing cities such as Bangkok to rush to train new pilots, as well as build new airports. For the Asia Pacific region, the first eight months of 2013 saw a five percent growth of passengers carried, year-over-year. The Sydney-based Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) notes that this growth is being propelled by LCCs, which carried more than half of the regions passengers in 2012. Overall demand for travel in Asia is being driven by the middle-class demographic, notes Martin Craig, CEO for the Pacific Asia Travel Association. He continues to suggest that, “This massive increase in intra-Asian tourism and air travel is simply driven by the fact that so many more people are going into the so-called ‘middle-class’ status with the discretionary income and one of the first things they want to spend their hard earned spare cash is ongoing overseas”. Industry estimates list Southeast Asia as reaching a population of 1.7 billion by 2030, up from its current 500 million. This level of population growth will necessitate the training of an estimated 200,000 pilots over the same time frame to handle the continued growth in travel demand.
Airbus Dominates the Single-Aisle Aircraft Segment in India Airbus continues its dominance in the singleaisle aircraft segment in India with a number of new aircraft orders to airlines including the following: ■■ TATA SIA, a joint venture, between Singapore Airlines and Tata Sons will be purchasing up to 20 A320s worth $1.83 billion. The airline will be operating out of New Delhi on domestic air services competing against other full service carriers, Air India and Jet Airways. ■■ IndiGo has ordered over 190 Airbus aircraft that will be delivered over the next six years. IndiGo also currently holds the largest share of the domestic Indian market. ■■ GoAir currently has 20 A320s in its fleet and the airline has orders for another 72 of the updated A320neo variant aircraft. ■■ Air India’s narrowbody fleet is comprised of mostly A320 aircraft; however, its LCC subsidiary utilizes 20 Boeing 737 aircraft. Airbus competitor, Boeing, is the main choice for LCC Spicejet. The airline currently operates over 40 737s. The airline also recently announced an order of 40 re-engined 737 Max variants that are worth more than $4 billion at list price.
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Aviation Foreword News
ASIA-PACIFIC UPDATE
Tata-SIA joint venture takes next step in bid to start airline in India Senior Indian aviation ministry officials confirmed that at the end of December 2013, the Tata-SIA joint venture submitted a no-objection certificate (NOC) to begin a full-service airline in India. This represents the second of three steps needed to begin carrier operations in the country. This move follows the joint venture (JV) request recently made, and subsequently approved, in 2013 by the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB). The major partner in the JV will be Tata Sons, which will hold a 51 per cent stake. The remaining 49 per cent belongs to SIA.
Cathay Pacific places an order for 21 Boeing 777-9x aircraft On December 20th 2013, Cathay Pacific officials announced the purchase of 21 7779X aircraft, making them Asia’s first 777X customer. At current list prices, the order is expected to be worth approximately $7 billion USD. Chief executive of Cathay Pacific Airways John Slosar notes, “The 777-9X promises us improved payload range capability and reduced operating costs, in addition to a significant reduction in environmental emissions.”
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body fleet age in the region at under five years throughout 2019, with corresponding competitive fuel efficiency, reliability and cabin comfort benefits.”
New codeshare agreement signed between Eva Air and Singapore Airlines On December 12th 2013, Star Alliance partners Eva Air and Singapore Airlines (SIA) signed a codeshare agreement for flights between Taipei and Singapore. The agreement stipulates that SIA will add the “SQ” code on the daily-operated Eva Air flight, while Eva Air will add its “BR” code on SIA’s two daily flights. Eva Air’s President Austin Cheng notes, “Together, we offer passengers the convenience of three flights a day between Taipei and Singapore. We’re off to a good start and look forward to cooperating with more Star Alliance members in the future.”
Airasia X places significant Airbus order In mid-December, it was announced that AirAsia X placed a firm order for an additional 25 A330-300s. This brings their total firm order for that aircraft to 51. This contract represents the largest ever A330 order for Airbus in a single purchase agreement. Co-founder and director of AirAsia X, Tony Fernandes, comments, “This order stamps our firm intent to dominate the long-haul, low cost carrier space and marks the next phase in our development to be the undisputed global market leader. Our commitment would allow us to remain as the youngest wide
ANA to fly its first route to Canada from Tokyo Haneda Starting on March 30th 2014, Japanese carrier All Nippon Airways (ANA) will operate its first non-stop route into Vancouver from Tokyo Haneda Airport. It will provide the round-trip service daily, using their 214-seat Boeing 767-300ER model. ANA’s president and CEO Osamu Shinobe said “Vancouver will be the first destination in Canada for ANA, and we are confident that passenger demand will be high, not only in Japan but in other Asian cities”. Although Air Canada already flies to Narita, Tokyo, ANA’s service will operate to and from Haneda.
CANADA UPDATE
Tom Ruth the new President and CEO of Edmonton Airports On January 20th, 2014, Tom Ruth replaced Reg Milley as President and CEO of Edmonton Airports. Tom Redl, board chair at Edmonton Airports, notes that “Tom joins Canada’s fastest growing air service market at a key point in our growth and development. He stood out in a very strong candidate field for his extensive experience in both passenger and cargo markets across North America and for having worked in both airline and airport environments.”
Aviation Feature News
EUROPE UPDATE
Air Canada places major order for 737max Air Canada secured a firm order for 61 Boeing 737 Max aircraft, with options for an additional 48. The order is estimated to be worth approximately $6.5 billion USD. Air Canada chief executive officer Calin Rovinescu notes that this deal is “a key element of our ongoing cost-transformation program.” Boeing suggests the latest versions of its 737 series are 14 percent more fuel-efficient than aircraft in the same series currently in service.
New framework in place to significantly boost Alberta’s tourism A new framework for Alberta’s tourism industry looks to grow the its industry value from $7.8 billion CAD to $10.3 billion CAD by 2020. The framework looks to maximize the industry’s ability to create jobs across the province, encourage investment to further diversify the Alberta economy, and showcase Alberta globally as well as to potential residents. Five key priorities to grow the tourism industry were identified as: innovation and development; accessibility; marketing; alignment; and research. The framework was developed by Travel Alberta and the Alberta government, following discussions with various tourism industry stakeholders.
BA to fly 787 on London - Calgary Starting in July 2014, British Airways will operate one of its new 787 Dreamliners into Calgary’s International Airport. This service is made possible with the airport’s recent runway extension that will be Canada’s longest at 4,267 metres and accept its first arrivals and departures in May 2014. Richard Tams, British Airways’ chief of UK and Ireland sales notes, “we’re receiving great customer feedback on our new aircraft so we’re delighted to be able to roll them out across more of our network and hope our customers enjoy them on these important routes.”
Swissport acquires Servisair After Swissport’s acquisition of Servisair was announced late in 2013, integration of the two firms is set to begin in January 2014. “The acquisition is an essential part of Swissport’s growth strategy. Our customers will benefit from the enlarged global network, the increased portfolio of value-added services, the combined operational excellence and the consistent service quality worldwide,” commented Per H. Utnegaard, Swissport International group president and CEO.
Monarch Airlines to retire its last A300 Monarch, a UK leisure carrier, is planning on retiring its last A300-600s this spring, bringing an end to 23 years of service for the aircraft type with Monarch. The final commercial flight with this aircraft type will be flown on April 13th by G-OJMR, a plane that was delivered to the carrier in 1991. Monarch group chairman Iain Rawlinson commented on the decision saying, “The A300-600s will leave our fleet this winter and they go with our blessing. Their time has passed. It’s time to move on.”
Norwegian boosts its Boeing 787 fleet with the additional of two -9s A letter of intent has been signed by Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) for two Boeing 787-9 planes, with an expected delivery in early 2016. Both aircraft will go into operation during Q1 of 2016. These two additions will boost the carrier’s Dreamliner fleet to 10. Bjorn Kjos states, “In order to run a competitive long-haul operation, we are dependent on brand-new, cost-efficient aircraft. I’m very satisfied to have secured our first two 787-9 Dreamliners. This is a fantastic airplane with high passenger comfort, long range and low fuel burn.”
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Aviation News
LATIN AMERICA UPDATE
IATA suggests growth in Latin America is constrained by infrastructure Late last year, International Air Transport Association (IATA) CEO and Director General Tony Tyler suggested that the lack of aviation infrastructure in Latin America is a key challenge for the air transport industry in the region. Addressing delegates at the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association’s (ALTA’s) Airline Leaders Forum, he suggests, “It will be a challenge for many years to come.” ALTA expects air traffic in the region to grow by an average of 6.9% annually over the next decade. This growth is likely to necessitate the expansion of current route networks.
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA UPDATE
Turkish Airlines to exercise Airbus A321 options Turkish Airlines will convert options for seven Airbus A321-200neo aircraft, as it aims to grow its fleet to 267 by the end of this year. In a stock market announcement, the carrier said that it “has decided to convert the options for seven A312-200neo aircraft that have been purchased from Airbus to firm orders to be delivered in 2018.” The airline will boost frequencies over the course of the year, and add approximately 21% capacity over the same time period. 14 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS
Kenya Airways receives approval from regulators for Boeing 787 operations Kenya’s Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) approved a change to Kenya Airways’ operating license to allow for the use of the Dreamliner. The aircraft type can now be deployed on both domestic and international routes. The carrier currently has nine 787-8s on order, with the first aircraft scheduled to be delivered during March 2014.
UNITED STATES UPDATE
The National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) appoints two new vice president positions Dick Doubrava, NBAA director of legislative affairs, and Christa Fornarotto, FAA associate administrator for airports, have both been appointed to vice president positions with responsibilities of government-relations for the association. The two appointments serve to replace Lisa Piccone, who served as senior vice president, government affairs for the NBAA during a nine-year time frame. Both Doubrava and Fornarotto started at their new positions effective January 1st, 2014.
Judge rules on the authority of SeaTac to set workplace rules at Seattle International Airport On December 27th 2013, Superior Court Judge Andrea Darvas ruled that authority will not be given to the City to set workplace rules within Seattle International Airport. The ruling is supported by the Washington State Legislature which maintains that municipalities other than the Port of Seattle are not allowed to exercise any jurisdiction over SeaTac Airport operations. Currently, Washington has a higher hourly wage than any other state, set at $9.32 USD.
Delta sees strong results in December Due to the peak travel period, and part of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend falling in December, Delta enjoyed strong results. Passenger unit revenues climbed 10% in December, year over year, driven by particularly strong demand. The carrier notes that its operating margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be between eight and nine percent, compared to the 5.5 percent seen in the same quarter in 2012.
Aviation News
OTHER AVIATION NEWS
Airline-related accidents and fatalities reached a record low for 2013 Last year was a particularly safe time period for commercial aviation. Statistics indicate there were a total of 29 fatal airliner accidents, which resulted in 265 fatalities. This falls significantly lower than the rolling ten-year average of 720 fatalities. The figure should not be surprising, as Aviation Safety Network President Harro Ranter notes, “Since 1997, the average number of airliner accidents has shown a steady and persistent decline, probably for a great deal thanks to the continuing safety-driven efforts by international aviation organizations such as ICAO, IATA, Flight Safety Foundation and the aviation industry.”
New 777x will be constructed in Washington after union vote On January 3rd, members of the machinists union accepted Boeing’s contract proposal which will see the 777X’s all-composite wings built in Everett, as well as at facilities surrounding the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner notes, “we’re proud to stay together, we’ll build the world’s next great airplane – the 777X and its new wing – right here. This will put our workforce on the cutting edge of composite technology, while sustaining thousands of local jobs for years to come.”
InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 15
Aviation Foreword Traffic
AIRLINE DATA – ASIA PACIFIC Asia-Pacific Airlines Release Traffic Figures for December 2013 Airline
1 2 2
3
Notes: Source:
Traffic (RPKs – millions)
Capacity (ASKs – millions)
Load Factor
9,521
12,252
77.7%
i0.8%
h1.9%
i2.1 pts
7,617
9,887
77.0%
i0.4%
h0.5%
i0.7 pts
5,012
6,815
73.5%
h4.0%
h3.7%
h0.2 pts
9,188
11,158
82.4%
h5.3%
h3.2%
h1.7 pts
1. Traffic numbers are for October 2013 as current results were not available at the time of this publication. 2. Traffic numbers are for November 2013 as current results were not available at the time of this publication. 3. Includes Cathay Pacific and Dragonair. Carrier traffic reports
AIRLINE DATA – EUROPE European Airlines Release Traffic Figures for December 2013 Airline
Notes: Source:
Traffic (RPKs – millions)
Capacity (ASKs – millions)
Load Factor
18,551
22,417
82.8%
h3.2%
h2.1%
h0.9 pts
14,791
18,956
78.0%
1
h1.7%
h0.6%
h0.8 pts
15,025
18,982
79.2%
2
h10.6%
h9.1%
h1.1 pts
1. Includes Lufthansa Passenger Airlines, SWISS, and Austrian Airlines. 2. Includes British Airways, Iberia (including Iberia Express), and Vueling. Y-T-D 2013 includes Vueling from 26Apr13. Vueling traffic is currently accounted as non-premium traffic. Carrier traffic reports
16 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS
Aviation Feature Traffic
AIRLINE DATA – NORTH AMERICA North America Airlines Release Traffic Figures for December 2013 Airline
Traffic (RPMs – millions)
Capacity (ASMs – millions)
Load Factor
4,604
5,565
82.7%
h4.8%
h4.0%
h0.6 pts
1,760
2,155
81.7%
h7.2%
h7.4%
i0.2 pts
Canada
United States
1 2 Notes: Source:
3,233
3,900
82.9%
h12.7%
h9.0%
h2.8 pts
16,877
19,766
85.4%
h4.1%
h0.6%
h3.0 pts
11,861
14,248
83.3%
h5.0%
h1.1%
h3.1 pts
15,787
18,519
85.2%
h6.9%
h3.8%
h2.5 pts
6,285
7,417
84.7%
h7.0%
h3.6%
h3.1 pts
8,975
10,839
82.8%
h9.8%
h3.4%
h4.8 pts
643
764
84.2%
h13.1%
h15.4%
i1.7 pts
1. Results are combined traffic results for Southwest Airlines and AirTran. 2. Total system includes scheduled service, fixed fee contract and non-revenue flying. Carrier traffic reports
InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 17
Aviation Traffic
AIRPORT TRAFFIC: SELECTED U.S. & INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS Summary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected U.S. & International Airports
2013
2012
United States
International
Atlanta
Chicago
Los Angeles
Dallas
Denver
New York JFK
London Heathrow
Paris CDG
Frankfurt
Beijing
Tokyo Narita
Mexico City
November
+3.7%
-0.9%
+1.6%
+2.5%
+2.2%
+4.1%
+3.1%
+1.1%
-2.7%
+3.1%
+11.2%
+7.7%
December
+3.2%
-3.7%
+5.0%
+4.2%
+0.3%
+7.3%
+2.0%
-1.4%
-6.3%
+7.2%
+10.9%
+6.1%
4th Quarter
+3.2%
-2.3%
+2.6%
+1.9%
+1.9%
+3.4%
+1.6%
-0.9%
-2.3%
+3.7%
+10.3%
+7.1%
Full Year
+3.2%
+0.1%
+3.0%
+1.4%
+0.6%
+6.5%
+0.9%
+1.1%
+1.9%
+4.3%
+16.8%
+11.8%
January
+3.1%
+0.6%
+3.3%
6.8%
+3.1%
+5.4%
+0.3%
-3.0%
-4.9%
-0.3%
+6.2%
+7.7%
February
-0.9%
-5.7%
0.4%
2.9%
-1.6%
-5.2%
1.0%
-1.6%
0.2%
7.3%
8.4%
2.2%
March
-0.1%
-3.4%
5.6%
2.5%
0.0%
-0.3%
3.9%
n/a
-1.1%
7.6%
9.7%
2.7%
1st Quarter
0.7%
-2.8%
3.2%
4.0%
0.5%
0.1%
1.8%
n/a
-2.0%
4.8%
8.2%
4.2%
April
-0.8%
+5.6%
+3.8%
+5.6%
-2.6%
-7.5%
-0.7%
-3.1%
-2.2%
+2.5%
+6.1%
+4.4%
May
-5.6%
+0.7%
+5.6%
+1.5%
-1.4%
-0.1%
+4.7%
+2.5%
+0.4%
+3.4%
+5.4%
+7.3%
June
-3.5%
-1.2%
+6.5%
+3.7%
-2.1%
-1.0%
+4.6%
0.0%
+3.1%
+1.4%
+9.2%
+8.6%
2nd Quarter
-3.3%
+1.7%
+5.3%
+3.6%
-2.0%
-2.9%
+2.9%
-0.6%
+0.4%
+2.4%
+6.9%
+6.8%
July
-3.2%
+1.1%
+4.5%
+4.3%
-2.6%
-1.4%
+5.5%
-0.5%
+5.0%
-2.7%
+7.6%
+8.3%
August
-2.2%
+1.2%
+3.9%
+3.9%
-5.0%
-0.8%
+7.7%
+3.8%
+3.6%
+0.6%
+7.7%
+8.2%
September
-1.0%
+1.7%
+5.0%
+3.8%
-0.7%
-2.3%
+3.4%
+1.0%
+3.6%
+1.7%
+7.6%
+8.6%
3rd Quarter
-2.2%
+1.3%
+4.4%
+4.0%
-2.9%
-1.5%
+5.5%
+1.4%
+4.1%
-0.2%
+7.6%
+8.4%
October
-2.2%
+4.2%
+6.2%
+4.7%
-0.6%
+6.2%
+4.6%
+3.4%
+3.5%
+4.5%
+11.1%
+7.1%
Source: Individual airport passenger traffic statistics.
18 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS
Aviation Traffic
AIRPORT TRAFFIC: SELECTED CANADIAN AIRPORTS
2013
2012
Summary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected Canadian Airports Toronto
Vancouver
Montréal
Calgary
Edmonton
Ottawa
Winnipeg
Halifax
Victoria
Kelowna
Saskatoon
Regina
November
+6.0%
+3.8%
+1.7%
+7.5%
+7.1%
-4.3%
+2.8%
+0.8%
+0.7%
+6.3%
+5.4%
+3.7%
December
+4.5%
-0.7%
+3.2%
+6.5%
+3.6%
-4.0%
-2.4%
-5.3%
-0.3%
-0.6%
+4.7%
+3.9%
4th Quarter
+5.3%
+2.1%
+1.5%
+7.2%
+5.7%
-3.8%
+1.6%
-1.5%
+0.4%
+3.1%
+4.8%
+4.4%
Full Year
+5.1%
+3.3%
+1.0%
+6.0%
+6.4%
+1.3%
+4.4%
+0.3%
+0.5%
+3.7%
+6.5%
+3.9%
January
+0.6%
-1.6%
+0.4%
+3.7%
+3.6%
-5.2%
-2.1%
-0.5%
-0.1%
+0.6%
+3.9%
+5.3%
February
-9.5%
-1.8%
-1.8%
+2.2%
+2.4%
-7.2%
-4.4%
-8.2%
-0.4%
-0.5%
+2.8%
+0.9%
March
+3.7%
-0.9%
+2.3%
+6.0%
+3.8%
-2.6%
-1.2%
-0.6%
+2.6%
+0.2%
+5.3%
+5.3%
1st Quarter
-1.7%
-1.4%
+0.3%
+4.0%
3.3%
-5.0%
-2.6%
-3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
4.0%
3.8%
April
+2.0%
-1.5%
-0.5%
+3.4%
+2.9%
-2.2%
-4.4%
-4.3%
+0.9%
+0.4%
+4.5%
+4.8% +2.4%
May
+5.8%
+0.4%
+3.8%
+5.4%
+4.5%
-2.3%
-0.8%
-3.1%
+3.4%
+6.1%
+4.5%
June
+4.1%
+4.3%
+1.7%
+1.9%
+5.5%
-4.0%
-1.1%
+1.0%
+10.1%
+6.2%
+1.1%
-0.6%
2nd Quarter
+4.0%
+1.0%
+1.7%
+3.6%
+4.3%
-2.8%
-2.1%
-2.1%
+4.8%
+4.2%
+3.4%
+2.2%
July
+2.2%
+3.7%
+3.5%
+3.9%
+5.1%
-0.2%
-0.9%
+1.0%
+1.3%
+5.3%
+5.2%
+5.5%
August
+3.6%
+5.9%
+6.2%
+6.6%
+5.2%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.4%
+3.7%
+5.5%
+5.9%
+6.1%
September
+25.5%
+3.1%
+1.2%
+4.9%
+5.4%
-1.1%
-2.0%
-1.0%
+3.3%
+5.2%
+1.8%
-1.2%
3rd Quarter
+9.6%
+4.3%
+3.8%
+5.2%
+5.2%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-0.5%
+2.8%
+5.3%
+4.3%
+3.6%
October
n/a
+2.2%
+1.6%
+4.8%
+3.2%
-1.3%
n/a
+2.2%
+1.8%
+6.0%
+6.2%
-0.2%
Source: Individual airport passenger traffic statistics.
InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 19
InterVISTAS Foreword News
THE INTERVISTAS GROUP CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE IN DELIVERING A DIVERSE RANGE OF CONSULTING PROJECTS AROUND THE WORLD. SOME OF THE NEW PROJECTS WE ARE WORKING ON ARE LISTED BELOW:
Business plan for a new pan-european airline start-up ■■ Develop a business plan for a new pan-European airline start up. Syracuse Hancock International Airport Extends ASD Contract ■■ Contract extension for air service development work for Syracuse Hancock International Airport (SYR) to June 30, 2014. Santa Barbara Municipal Airport Renews ASD Contract ■■ Contract extension for air service development work for Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (SBA). Successful Opening of New Terminal at Prishtina International Airport in Kosovo ■■ InterVISTAS extends our congratulations to the Republic of Kosovo, the Limak Group and Aéroports de Lyon on the successful opening of the new terminal and facilities at Prishtina International Airport (PRN) in Kosovo. Construction was carried out by the Limak Group, which operates the airport with partner Aéroports de Lyon. With this new terminal, PRN will see an increase in annual passenger capacity from two to five million. San Antonio International Airport Announces New Service ■■ Congratulations to San Antonio International Airport (SAT) for new nonstop service with Mexican low-cost carrier Volaris operating twice weekly to Guadalajara, Mexico (GDL). GDL becomes the fifth Mexican destination with nonstop service from SAT and marks the 1st Texas market with a Volaris entrance. 20 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS
Zagreb Airport Concession Reaches Financial Close ■■ An agreement was signed between the Croatian Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure and MZLZ, an Aéroports de Paris led consortium. This step marks the financial closing of a 30-year DFBOT agreement. The consortium has announced it will invest €331 million in a new terminal, €243 for the design and construction and €88 million for the maintenance over the entire concession period. The Croatian government secured longterm concession fees, while enjoying improved infrastructure for their capital city Zagreb. The future terminal will have an area of 65,000 m2, and will be capable of handling 5 million passengers annually, compared to the current saturated terminal capacity of 2 million passengers. Hans Mohrmann of InterVISTAS Consulting has been advising the Croatian Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure since 2011 on this PPP project. YVR Renews Bluetooth Passenger Tracking Program for 2014 ■■ Vancouver International Airport has renewed our Bluetooth Passenger Tracking Program for 2014. Congratulations to MSP on New Service to Frankfurt on Condor Airlines ■■ Congratulations to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) on its new non-stop service to Frankfurt on Condor
Airlines. Flights will commence this summer and are open for booking now. Croatia’s Minister Dončić Pleased with Osijek’s Business Development Opportunities ■■ On November 29th, InterVISTAS presented the results of its business development study to the Croatian Minister of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure. The study was aimed at the development of new and increased passenger services and air cargo operations, including a logistics center at Osijek Airport. In the passenger terminal of Osijek Airport, Rick Russell of InterVISTAS presented the results to a prominent and diverse group. The Minister of Europe’s newest member state was pleased with the results of the business development study.
The study objectives were to provide an immediate analytical and strategic boost for Osijek airport management. A fiveyear business development plan towards establishment of an air cargo and logistics center at the airport was presented. The plan included development opportunities for general logistics, air cargo and express. Besides this cargo business development strategy, a comprehensive passenger demand and leakage analysis was conducted. This part of the study also yielded surprising results, which further supported the airports potential. InterVISTAS and Districon B.V. combined their expertise and industry knowledge to make this study a success.
InterVISTAS FeatureNews
Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority signs multi-year contract for ASD services at IAD and DCA ■■ The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has selected InterVISTAS to provide air service development services for Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) and Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD). This multi-year contract includes passenger air service consulting, air cargo service consulting and related regulatory consulting services.
In March 2013, Transport Canada terminated its Aviation Forecasting Program. This program produced traffic forecasts for individual airports for several decades. The program provided one of the best system forecast models in the world and was considered by the financial rating agencies and bond holders to be an unbiased forecast, appropriate for due diligence.
range of potential events and factors that might impact traffic development. The deliverables will include short and long term forecasts of annual passengers, aircraft movements and air cargo at each of the participating airports, with breakdowns by geographic region and traffic type. The initial forecasts will be produced in the first half of 2014 and will be updated in July each year.
Recognising that the end of this program leaves a significant gap in the aviation-activity forecast information available to Canadian airports (and other stakeholders), Canadian Airports Council worked with a number of Canadian airports to find a suitable alternative provider of this forecast information. Following a competitive RFP process facilitated by Canadian Airports Council, InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. was selected as the preferred supplier.
The forecasting program is open to other Canadian airports, and airports interested in joining are invited to contact Mike Tretheway, Chief Economist, at +1-604-717-1801 or at mike.tretheway@intervistas.com.
The forecasting methodology offered by InterVISTAS is one that seeks to preserve as much of what was best about the Transport Canada approach as is possible, while advancing the range of information provided to individual airports. The methodology incorporates many of the econometric and statistical technologies of the Transport Canada models. However, it also goes beyond the Transport Canada models by including industry intelligence and risk analysis to address a wider
Fraport Analysis on US Airways’ Departure from Star Alliance ■■ Fraport has selected InterVISTAS to conduct an analysis of what the impact of US Airways’ departure from the Star Alliance will be on Frankfurt Airport. Opportunity to Join Air Traffic Forecasts Program to Replace Former Transport Canada Forecasts ■■ In an RFP process facilitated by Canadian Airports Council, InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. has been selected to produce, on an on-going annual basis, air traffic forecasts for the airports at Montreal, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax. Now that a selection of a forecaster has been completed, other airports may wish to join the program, which offers annual forecasts at reduced rates due to the economies of scale of serving multiple airports.
InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 21
Speaking Engagements and Events Howard Mann, Vice President Policy & Market Analysis ACI-NA Air Service Data Seminar Albuquerque, New Mexico – January 26 – 28, 2014 Howard will moderate a panel discussing “Developing an Effective Approach to Strategic Air Service Planning”.
Mike Tretheway, Chief Economist & Chief Strategic Officer ACI-NA CEO Forum Tucson, Arizona - February 6, 2014 Mike will participate in a speaking panel titled “By the Numbers: The Economy, the Industry and the World”. Growing the North Conference Grande Prairie, Alberta – February 18-20, 2014 Mike will present The Role of the Airport in Regional Economic Development.
Marcus Lam, Director, Network Design and Financial Planning ACI-NA Air Service Data Seminar Albuquerque, New Mexico – January 26 – 28, 2014 Marcus will sit on a panel titled “Former Airline Representatives Share Their Advice”.
22 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS
Barney Parrella, Executive Vice President ACC/AAAE Airport Symposium Denver, Colorado – February 20, 2014 Barney will moderate a panel addressing why PPP’s have worked outside of the U.S. and how they can work in the U.S.
Ian Kincaid, Vice President, Economic Analysis ITF Roundtable on Forecasting Airport Demand Paris, France – February 25 Ian will speak on incorporating risk into forecasts of airport traffic.
Staff Anncouncements
William S. “Bill” Swelbar Joins InterVISTAS as Executive Vice President We are pleased to announce the appointment of William “Bill” Swelbar as Executive Vice President. Bill officially joined InterVISTAS on December 16, 2013 and will head the Washington DC office. Throughout Bill’s career, his clientele has been diverse as he has represented airlines, airports, investment banks, investors, manufacturers, and labor groups in a variety of advocacy and non-advocacy assignments. His specialties include labor cost profiling, regulatory analysis, competitive assessments, cost-benefit analyses, and other communication, economic and financial advisory services in support of strategic planning, corporate communications and negotiations. Bill is also a much sought-after speaker and has provided expert witness testimony before various tribunals and before the United States Congress regarding the economics of commercial air transport. Welcome to the team, Bill!
David Dague Joins InterVISTAS as Vice President Airline Strategies at Airports We are pleased to announce the appointment of David Dague as Vice President Airline Strategies at Airports in our newly opened Boston, Massachusetts office. David has worked extensively in the aviation industry serving as a Principal at SH&E for over 24 years. He advises large, medium, and small-sized airports on air service development issues, airport marketing, and economic impacts. He has been instrumental in creating numerous successful air service plans that have resulted in new airline service for his airport clients. Over the past five years, Dave’s efforts have led to over a dozen new routes, including the first ever transpacific and transatlantic routes for two major U.S. hubs respectively. He has also performed a wide range of studies for air carriers and state aviation agencies. His areas of expertise include airport system planning, airline route planning, schedule analysis and air traffic demand forecasting. Welcome, Dave!
InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 23
THE HAGUE VANCOUVER
BATH
OTTAWA
SKOP JE
BOSTON WASHINGTON
InterVISTAS Office Locations Representative Offices RHDHV Offices Project Locations
SÃO PAULO
InterVISTAS Consulting Group is a management consulting company with extensive expertise in aviation, transportation and tourism. Our exceptional people have successfully delivered projects in over 70 countries around the world. We are committed to working collaboratively with our clients to apply vision and expertise to achieve results. NACO, the Netherlands Airport Consultants, B.V. is one of the world’s leading independent airport consultancy and engineering firms offering integrated, full-service planning and design services. With more than 60 years of experience, they have the expertise that is instrumental in solving the increasing complexity of developing today’s airports. NACO has assisted over 550 airports of all sizes in more than 100 countries with realizing their goals; goals that entail every aspect of airport design and development. Royal HaskoningDHV combine global expertise with local knowledge to deliver a multidisciplinary range of professional engineering, consultancy and project management services in aviation, buildings, energy, industry, infrastructure, maritime, mining, rural areas, urban areas and water..
royalhaskoningdhv.com
InterVISTAS’ Aviation Intelligence Report is a collection of information gathered from public sources, such as press releases, media articles, etc., information from confidential sources, and items heard on the street. Thus, some of the information is speculative and may not materialise. To provide comments/feedback on the InterVISTAS’ Aviation Intelligence Report, please contact Paul Ouimet at paul.ouimet@intervistas.com or 1-604-717-1800. To subscribe, please send an email to subscribe@InterVISTAS.com To unsubscribe, please send an email to unsubscribe@InterVISTAS.com