指導教授 : 黃俊哲 報告者 : 許芝華
+ Introduction + Proposed make-to-plan (MTP) based
supply chain strategy + Simulation of the MTP-based pull type supply chain + Conclusions and future studies
+ SC 被分為兩種型態 :Push 、 Pull 。 + Pull : MTO(make-to-order) 、 MTP(make-to-
plan) 。 + SCM 資訊分享困難→ AT(agent technology) 。 + Research focuses :MTP 、 AT 的應用； throughput 、 validated line item effectiveness (VLIE) 、 demand variability management 、 safety stock 、 AT on forecast accuracy improvement 。
• Supply chain model: manufacturers 、 distribution centers 、 wholesalers 。
Fig. 3. Three-echelon pull type supply chain
+ Agent in MTP supply chain
Fig. 4. Agent system architecture
+ Formulism for MTP based SC strategy: ďƒ˜Supply planning ďƒ˜Inventory planning
+ Four performance factors are
investigated in this simulation: (1) forecast accuracy improvement (2) throughput & validated line item effectiveness(VLIE)improvement (3) demand variation reduction (4) safety stock level
+ Impacts of forecast accuracy Table 6. Effects of forecast accuracy enhancement enhancement Case
Current System Forecast Accuracy Enhancement
MPC
B-0
TCPU
PPU
PDR
RRO
$85.01
$ 1.18
95%
76%
ES ($K)
F-1
60%
$84.89
$1.14
96.02%
77.89%
$ 112
F-2
70% (Increase Safety Stock by 10%) 80% (Increase Safety Stock by 10%) 90% (Increase Safety Stock by 80%)
$84.78
$1.10
95.44%
78.13%
$ 245
$84.61
$1.31
93.98%
77.38%
$ 429
$84.18
$0.93
96.89%
78.26 %
$ 922
F-3
F-4
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes; TCPU: Total cost per unit; PPU: Penalty per unit; RRO: Ratio of received and ordered; PDR: Prompt delivery rate; ES: Estimated savings ($ K)
+ through & VLIE improvement Table 8. Effects of throughput and VLIE improvements Case
MPC
TCPU
PPU
PDR
RRO
$85.02
$ 1.11
95%
76%
ES ($K)
Current System
B-0
Manufacturing Enhancement Throughput Rate
T-1
Increase throughput 10%
$84.88
$1.00
95.54%
78.56%
$ 386
T-2
Increase throughput 20%
$84.86
$1.00
96.11%
78.71%
$ 437
T-3
Increase throughput 30%
$84.86
$0.98
96.32%
79.10%
$ 461
T-4
Increase throughput 40%
$84.87
$0.96
96.49%
79.23%
$ 427
T-5
Increase throughput 50%
$84.79
$0.84
97.23%
80.01%
$ 752
V-1
78%
$84.85
$0.96
96.39%
78.63%
$ 481
V-2
79%
$84.72
$0.68
97.01%
82.84%
$ 954
V-3
81%
$84.51
$0.21
99.03%
87.73%
$ 1,697
V-4
81%
$84.46
$0.03
99.89%
91.05%
$ 1,880
V-5
83%
$84.46
$0.03
99.88%
91.11%
$ 1,880
V-6
83%
$84.46
$0.03
99.91%
91.32%
$ 1,870
V-7
83%
$84.46
$0.03
99.93%
91.38%
$ 1,870
Manufacturing Enhancement VLIE
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes; TCPU: Total cost per unit; PPU: Penalty per unit; RRO: Ratio of received and ordered; PDR: Prompt delivery rate; ES: Estimated savings ($ K)
+ Impacts on demand variability
management Table 12. Effects of demand variability reduction Case Current System Demand Variability Reduction
MPC
TCPU
PPU
PDR
RRO
ES ($K)
B-0 D-1
- 10% decreased
$85.02 $84.94
$ 1.18 $1.17
76% 77.89%
95% 95.73%
$ 143
D-2
- 20% decreased
$84.92
$1.16
78.84%
96.21%
$ 358
D-3
-30% decreased
$84.91
$1.17
78.88%
96.33%
$ 495
D-4
-40% decreased
$84.90
$1.16
78.92%
96.83%
$ 594
D-5
-50% decreased
$84.87
$1.15
78.98%
97.37%
$ 922
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes; TCPU: Total cost per unit; PPU: Penalty per unit; RRO: Ratio of received and ordered; PDR: Prompt delivery rate; ES: Estimated savings ($ K)
+ Impacts of safety stock Table 14 Effects of safety stock level adjustments MPC
Current System Safety Stock
Case B-0 SS-1
Safety Stocks: Video Only
Safety Stocks: LED Only
PPU $ 1.18 $0.86
PDR 76% 79.76%
RRO 95% 96.11%
ES ($K)
+2wk Video
TCPU $85.02 $84.48
SS-2 SS-3 SS-4 SSV-1
+3wk Video, +1wk All +4wk Video, +2wk All +5wk Video, +3wk All +1wk Video
$84.88 $85.51 $85.61 $84.64
$0.69 $0.62 $0.48 $0.98
80.88% 82.31% 82.92% 79.21%
97.23% 97.32% 97.43% 95.82%
$ 146 $ (653) $ (785) $ 452
SSV-2
+2wk Video
$84.48
$0.86
79.76%
95.89%
$ 650
SSV-3
+3wk Video
$84.19
$0.77
80.39%
96.25%
$ 1,032
SSV-4
+4wk Video
$84.21
$0.47
84.02%
97.34%
$ 1,001
SSV-5
+5wk Video
$84.41
$0.47
84.36%
97.44%
$ 747
SSL-1
+1wk LED
$84.89
$1.03
77.87%
96.09%
$ 128
SSL-2
+2wk LED
$85.30
$1.03
78.21%
96.29%
$ (391)
SSL-3
+3wk LED
$85.58
$1.05
78.36%
96.33%
$ (764)
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes; TCPU: Total cost per unit; PPU: Penalty per unit; RRO: Ratio of received and ordered; PDR: Prompt delivery rate; ES: Estimated savings ($ K)
$ 650
+ Simulation result remarks Table 17. Key input-output relationships Throughput +
Inventory Cost +
Penalty Charge -
Quantity Produced +
Quantity Shipped +
Throughput + Frozen Period -
-
-
-
+
Base Stock +
+
-
+
+
Forecast Accuracy +
-
+
-
-
-
?
+
Forecast Accuracy + Base Stock + Demand Variability -
-
-
+
+
Mfg VLIE +
?
-
+
+
Mfg VLIE + Frozen Period -
-
-
-
+
Flexible Fulfillment
-
+
+
+
Note: “+” sign denotes increase, “-“ sign denotes decrease, and “?” sign denotes either way
+ 提高預測客戶需求→降低成本、改善服務 + + + +
。 改善 VLIE 、安全庫存水準→高供應率、降 低總成本。 接單後生產政策→改善 SC 整體效能。 安全庫存水準需要不斷重新調整、維護→ 確保對客戶的服務。 庫存水準增加→總成本先下降後上升，找 最佳總成本、庫存水準需要設定在這一點 。
+ Conclusions:
• 大多數的研究結果實施 make-to-order 於 高科技產業。但對於其他不同性質的產業 而言還是適用拉式策略中的 make-toplan 。 • Agent 技術應用。 + Future studies: 研究更多相依變數 AT 中不同的預測機制
Table 5. The relationship between key input/output variables and the scenarios Scenario Order Scenario 1 Forecast Accuracy Improvement
Input Variables •
Forecast accuracy
Scenario 2 VLIE/ Throughput Improvement
• •
Throughput rate Manufacturing capacity reliability
Output Variables •
% of forecast accuracy improvement
•
Order to fulfillment lead time VLIE Throughput
• • •
Manufacturing/Purchase cost Mfg-DC lead time Order to fulfillment lead time
Scenario 3 Regional Manufacturing
•
Transportation variation
• •
Scenario 4 Demand Variability Reduction
• •
Demand variability Demand variability reduction
•
Forecast accuracy
Scenario 5 Safety Stock Adjustment
• •
Safety stock levels Frozen period
• •
Inventory cost Warehousing costs
Table 7. Effects of forecast accuracy enhancement Case Current System Forecast Accuracy Improvement
MPC
UTC
UCC
B-0 F-1 F-2 F-3
60% 70% (SS+0.1) 80% (SS +0.1)
$ 159.99 $ 159.91 $ 159.82 $ 159.69
$ 1.59 $ 1.55 $ 1.52 $ 1.69
F-4
90% (SS +0.8)
$ 159.34
$ 1.38
ProS ($K)
FR
OTR
$ 112 $ 245 $ 429
95% 96% 95% 94%
76% 78% 78% 77%
$ 922
97%
78%
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes, UTC: Unit total cost, UCC: Unit penalty cost, ProS: Projected savings, FR: Fill rate, OTR: On-time delivery rate
Table 9. Effects of throughput and VLIE improvements Current System Manufacturing Improvement Throughput Rate
Manufacturing Improvement VLIE
Case MPC
TCPU
PPU
B-0 T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 V-1 V-2 V-3 V-4 V-5 V-6 V-7
$ 159.99 $ 159.72 $ 159.68 $ 159.67 $ 159.69 $ 159.48 $ 159.65 $ 159.32 $ 158.79 $ 158.66 $ 158.66 $ 158.67 $ 158.67
$ 1.59 $ 1.37 $ 1.38 $ 1.35 $ 1.32 $ 1.17 $ 1.32 $ 0.98 $ 0.39 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16
-10% - 20% - 30% - 40% - 50% 78% 79% 81% 81% 83% 83% 83%
PDR
RRO
ES ($K)
$ 386 $ 437 $ 461 $ 427 $ 752 $ 481 $ 954 $ 1,697 $ 1,880 $ 1,880 $ 1,870 $ 1,870
95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 96% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
76% 79% 79% 79% 79% 80% 79% 83% 88% 91% 91% 91% 91%
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes; TCPU: Total cost per unit; PPU: Penalty per unit; RRO: Ratio of received and ordered; PDR: Prompt delivery rate; ES: Estimated savings ($ K)
Table 13. Effects of demand variability reduction Case
MPC
UTC
UCC
Current System
B-0
Demand Variability Reduction
D-1
-10%
$ 159.89 $ 1.52
D-2
-20%
D-3
ProS ($K) FR
$ 159.99 $ 1.59
OTR
95%
76%
$ 143
96%
78%
$ 159.74 $ 1.46
$ 358
96%
79%
-30%
$ 159.64 $ 1.49
$ 495
96%
78%
D-4
-40%
$ 159.57 $ 1.43
$ 594
97%
78%
D-5
-50%
$ 159.34 $ 1.38
$ 922
97%
78%
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes, UTC: Unit total cost, UCC: Unit penalty cost, ProS: Projected savings, FR: Fill rate, OTR: On-time delivery rate
Table 15 Effects of safety stock level adjustments Current System Safety Stock
Safety Stocks: Video Only
Safety Stocks: LED Only
Case B-0
MPC
UTC $ 159.99
UCC $ 1.59
ProS $K)
FR 95%
OTR 76%
SS-1
+2wk Video
$ 159.53
$ 1.28
$ 650
96%
80%
SS-2
+3wk Video, +1wk $ 159.89 All
$ 1.13
$ 146
97%
81%
SS-3
+4wk Video, +2wk $ 160.46 All
$ 1.06
$ (653)
97%
82%
SS-4
+5wk Video, +3wk $ 160.55 All
$ 0.94
$ (785)
97%
83%
SSV-1
+1wk Video
$ 159.67
$ 1.39
$ 452
96%
79%
SSV-2
+2wk Video
$ 159.53
$ 1.28
$ 650
96%
80%
SSV-3
+3wk Video
$ 159.26
$ 1.20
$ 1,032
96%
81%
SSV-4
+4wk Video
$ 159.28
$ 0.93
$ 1,001
97%
84%
SSV-5
+5wk Video
$ 159.46
$ 0.93
$ 747
97%
84%
SSL-1
+1wk LED
$ 159.90
$ 1.44
$ 128
96%
78%
SSL-2
+2wk LED
$ 160.27
$ 1.44
$ (391)
96%
78%
SSL-3
+3wk LED
$ 160.53
$ 1.45
$ (764)
96%
78%
Note: MPC: Major parameter changes, UTC: Unit total cost, UCC: Unit penalty cost, ProS: Projected savings, FR: Fill rate, OTR: On-time delivery rate