fechancellor.newsvine.com__news_2009_07_29_3087563-tehra by Iranian

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

irandesk

Customize Column

Write Article

Page 1 of 7

Seed Link

Edit Content

Account

Earnings

Friends

Groups

History

FECHANCELLOR Colonel, aide de camp, Governor's Sfaff

Visit fechancellor's column >>

Articles Posted: 21; Links Seeded: 210 Member Since: 11/2007 Last Seen: 7/29/2009

1 Vote

0 Comments

E-mail This

Clip To:

Tehran's 2 Revolutions News Type: Opinion â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Wed Jul 29, 2009 11:59 PM IRST fechancellor

"If Mrs. Clinton's message was indeed requested by Mr. Rafsanjani, there can be little doubt that the ratline begins in Qum and ends in Najaf. Considering Mr. Rafsanjani's past track record of Byzantine dealings where the US is concerned, the only way any request from anyone in Iran is acted upon by Washington is with the participation and expressed approval of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. This Sistani-Rafsanjani link is most probably the fabled back channel to Iran advocated by US Iran Envoy Dennis Ross earlier this year." The following article was first dissemnated on 28 July as an AFI RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING AFI Research is a leading authority on National Security, Global Intelligence, Conflicts and Defence. The professional's first choice ---------------------------------On Wednesday 22 July while attending at the ASEAN conference in Thailand, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton unleashed an off the shoulder broadside from the ether aimed at every class of leadership in Iran. The secretary's newly coined "Defense Umbrella" is designed to facilitate the upgrade of present conventional military and naval capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while intimating that the threat posed by a nuclear Iran will be met with a US "Nuclear Umbrella" shielding these same states in the not so distant future. Sec. Clinton's unexpected announcement was met with immediate criticism from Israel and icy silence from GCC leader, Saudi Arabia. Israeli Intelligence Services Minister Dan Meridor characterized the proposed "umbrella" as "a mistake" adding, ""We cannot act now by assuming that Iran will be able to arm itself with a nuclear weapon, but to prevent such a possibility."

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 2 of 7

Mr. Meridor, your concerns are noted, but it's not always about Israel. Then again, any US policy shunned in Israel has the better chance of playing in Tehran. A senior US official speaking on background said it best, "Sec. Clinton's comments should be seen as a public argument the US is making to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear arms rather than a sign that the US is resigned to the prospect." The shock from Israel and the silence from the Saudis is the tell here. Sec. Clinton seemingly makes policy on the fly without consultations with any US ally. Sec. Clinton's true audience is inside Iran where former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani plots and plans among the clerics and the merchants or bazaar class. For lack of any solid information on the prior activities of Mr. Rafsanjani, ground zero for the current revolution in Iran is Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali al-Sistani's home in Najaf. Whatever passed between these two men during their 10 March meeting still stays between them, yet only five days later, Mir-Hossein Moussavi entered the presidential race. Mr. Moussavi's hat in the ring was itself a bolt for those in and out of Iran. There exist many currents and eddies to negotiate among Iran's leadership factions. The cleric class has lost influence since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei took over control of the government through his rube and puppet President Mahmoud Amadinejad. This control coupled with the close support of the IRGC and Basij Militia means Mr. Khamenei is poised to usurp the clerics and their constitutional prerogatives. Mr. Khamenei's machinations are of serious concern for those in Iran who do not wish to see the installation of a dynasty. Reports list Mr. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, with commander status in the Basij Militia during the present crackdown. The junior Mr. Khamenei is also rumored to be Iran's Prince Regent. Mojtaba Khamenei's high profile participation in the defense of the regime is an opportunity fill out his leadership legend.

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 3 of 7

Iran's merchant or bazaar class suffers greatly from endless rounds of hard won sanctions by the Bush administration, especially those impacting Iran's financial sector at home and abroad. Internally, the bazaar must compete with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) business empire that is as intrusive as it is massive. All the while, Iran's oil exports are shrinking due to the lack of access to Western know how to extract more oil from existing wells and the multitude of parts and pieces to keep the infrastructure working. Iraq's oil industry under Saddam was beset by similar circumstances. In short, Iran's business environment reeks of the stench of gangrene spawned from massive opportunity costs driven by the Islamic glory seeking of Mr. Khamenei. It should be understood that the bazaar came over to Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1979 Revolution. Any revolution now must include this important section of the middle class. One other formidable consideration is the status of Iran's regular military. This group is another victim of the primacy of the IRGC. The leadership of the Navy, Air Force and Army has long chaffed as second best in allocations and status and is to be considered less politically reliable than the Khamenei favored Revolutionary Guard. There is scant information on the activities of the military leadership and the true loyalties of the conscripts. What is known is the military has not been called upon to take to the streets in any strength to counter demonstrations. Sec. Clinton's message to any objective Iranian military leader is clear: Iran will lose any conventional arms race with the GCC states backed by the US just as the IRGC has lost the battle in Iraq. The question is can the regular armed forces be relied upon by Mr. Khamenei? Some force beyond the shock action of demonstrators will be necessary to contain the IRGC and Basij Militia no matter how velvet the political effort. Sec. Clinton's message to Iran is a nuclear weapon will not become the panacea to Iran's present problems foreign or domestic, or a vehicle to score great glories at the expense of the US and GCC in the future. In her words, "It's unlikely that Iran will be any stronger or safer, because they won't be able to intimidate and dominate, as they apparently believe they can, once they have a nuclear weapon." With no glories to reap and more "crippling action"--Sec. Clinton's euphemism for sanctions--to come, continuing Iran's nuclear program will only serve to ensure protection against regime/dynasty change from without and within. A Khamenei dynasty protected by a nuclear device in the hands of the IRGC could rule over Iran for decades to come.

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 4 of 7

This scenario is of little solace to Iran's clergy who have so far not endorsed the Amadinejad election in anywhere approaching en mass. The meaning for the merchants is akin seeing a ground hog day shadow, except this reading predicts years and years of frostbite for a bazaar class facing ever constricting financing coupled with competition with the ever ravenous Revolutionary Guard for business opportunities. Even within the government's bureaucracy fissures show as Mr. Amadinejad's mercurial leadership is too wild a ride for careerists the president ignores as a matter of course on policy matters. Fissures have formed in Mr. Amadinejad's own cabinet where his fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. Center stage was the rhubarb over Esfandiar Rahim Mashai's appointment as first vice president that ended with the supreme leader, who called for Mr. Mashai's ouster. This appointment can be viewed as either an attempt by Mr. Amadinejad to separate him from the conservatives and the supreme leader in the hopes of reaching the disaffected, or as some high level byplay between the supreme leader and president designed to produce the same effect. Either way, the stinging result is disarray inside Mr. Amadinejad's cabinet. Also finding the sack are Intelligence Minister, Gholam-Hussein Mosheni-Ejei along with Muhammad-Hassan Saffar-Harandi, the Islamic culture and guidance minister. Last week, each walked out of a cabinet meeting in protest to Mr. Mashai's elevation. For now, Mr. Mashai is appointed Mr. Amadinejad's chief of staff. Will Mr. Amadinejad continue to resist extreme pressure to keep Mr. Mashai close to him? More incisive, is this a case where Mr. Amadinejad commands only mixed allegiance from those around him necessitating a trusted, if tainted, confidant? Amid the swirl of conflicting reports out of Iran, Mr. Ahmadinejad may have fired more than half his cabinet. If this is true, then the president under Iranian law must stand for a confidence vote in the Parliament. It is in the Parliament where analysts have predicted a bruising fight to approve any cabinet Mr. Amadinejad might propose. For those who deride Mr. Moussavi's apparent lack of charisma, his dearth of drama alone is reassuring compared to the circus around Mr. Amadinejad. It is among the bureaucracy where Moussavi's steady hand connoting a competent administrator will be the most welcome. This dichotomy of emotional demeanors should also be viewed as a comfort by the US, EU, Arabs and even Israel, if Mr. Moussavi and supporters were to win out. Mrs. Clinton's demarche seems tailor made to assist Mr. Rafsanjani's efforts to cobble together enough clerics, military leaders and merchants to challenge Mr. Khamenei in the Assembly of Experts. In fact, this suit of policy is fits so well, it looks tailor made by request for Mr. Rafsanjani to fashion his case for regime change. As if on queue, Mr. Moussavi announced on Saturday 25 July that former president Mohammad Khatami and sixty-seven other reformists including presidential candidate Mahdi Karroubi have delivered a letter to the nine clerics that are "marja taqlid" based in the holy city of Qum. These clerics are respected sources of emulation for Iran's Shias. The letter asks this group of nine to call for a cessation of the Khamenei regime's repressive methods aimed at the media, demonstrators and their families since the election. Just as a lawyer in a courtroom should never ask a question to which he or she knows not the answer, the same principle applies in politics. Chances are Mr. Moussavi is confident in receiving the answer he seeks, or he would not have broadcast this most important appeal.

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 5 of 7

Of ever more significance, an affirmative answer from Qum will be viewed as a trial ballot of the Assembly of Experts. If Mrs. Clinton's message was indeed requested by Mr. Rafsanjani, there can be little doubt that the ratline begins in Qum and ends in Najaf. Considering Mr. Rafsanjani's past track record of Byzantine dealings where the US is concerned, the only way any request from anyone in Iran is acted upon by Washington is with the participation and expressed approval of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. This Sistani-Rafsanjani link is most probably the fabled back channel to Iran advocated by US Iran Envoy Dennis Ross earlier this year. At present, Mr. Ross is safely ensconced at the White House instead of the State Department as chief of Mideast Policy reading and reacting to the take from Iran. Mr. Ross during his affiliation with the Washington Institute on Near East Policy endorsed a draft plan similar to Sec. Clinton's proposed "umbrella" before joining the Obama administration. The fight in Iran over the presidential election results is a battle between two revolutions. The first is represented by Supreme Leader Khamenei's decision to vest his power in the government and IRGC. With this power he can out maneuver the clerics who supposedly enjoy a constitutionally delegated influence as to the choice of the next leader. The available polling of the presidential race suggests that Mr. Moussavi, if not actually winning, had every chance of making the runoff. This is the reason for the Mr. Khamenei's quick count to assure Mr. Amadinejad won the race. This polling also explains Mr. Amadinejad's eleventh hour accusations of corruption laid at the feet of Mr. Rafsanjani. If Mr. Moussavi armed as he is with unquestioned leadership and Revolutionary credentials had won, his status would ensure he would not be a pushover for the supreme leader, thus challenging one paladin of Mr. Khamenei's power. The second revolution may appear to begin and end with Mr. Moussavi, who is the face of a very public wrong, and Mr. Rafsanjani the consummate insider. Yet the roots of this revolution have smoldered slowly for quite some time. As Iran's clerics have lost power vis-Ă -vis Mr. Khamenei a once silenced, ultra respected Shia voice in the holy city of Najaf is stilled no longer. Mr. Khamenei's power strategy has one great flaw. In the resulting vacuum, spurned clerics now turn to Grand Ayatollah Sistani for leadership, and the Grand Ayatollah's vocabulary for Shia living does not include the words velayat-e-faqih or leadership by jurist that is Mr. Khamenei's claim to power. It is among the cleric class where the choice between the Khamenei or Sistani-Rafsanjani revolutions will play out. However, the support of the bazaar and regular military are essential to force a vote in the Assembly of Experts that removes Mr. Khamenei from power. That the US would consider then support Mr. Rafsanjani's efforts without consulting allies by the force of out of the blue policy pronouncements can only mean the former president is close stitching together the support and votes necessary to make his play. More importantly, Grand Ayatollah Sistani appears to believe the same. Mr. Khamenei may well be caught moving between two stools. David Moon is a regular contributor from the United States. ______________________â&#x20AC;&#x201D; AFI RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DATABASE (ISDB)

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 6 of 7

This provides an unparalleled information resource for the world's news media, major commercial concerns, universities and government departments and is designed specifically for researchers, journalists, editors, producers, publishers, security managers, risk assessors, academics and the intelligence community. AFI Research provides expert worldwide coverage with a network of Research Associates based in Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, the UK and the USA. AFI Research was first established in 1968, with the ISDB being created in 2001 by an international team of intelligence and defence researchers. The ISDB is a dedicated professional and confidential resource that is not available either online or to the general public. The ISDB covers in great detail over 200 countries, concentrating in particular on the period 1945 to the present. Database One deals with the Intelligence Services, National Security, Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), Satellite Intelligence (SATINT), Communications Security (COMSEC), Defence Intelligence, Internal Security and Paramilitary Forces, Counter-Terrorism, Special Forces, Law Enforcement Agencies and International Terrorism Groups. Database Two covers Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Conventional Weapons, the Armed Forces Order of Battle (ORBAT) of over 200 countries and international conflict analysis. AFI Research can provide up-to-date information on current security concerns or develop bespoke intelligence projects. For security reasons the ISDB will remain off-line and is accessed only through an AFI Researcher.

1 Vote

Enjoy this article? Help vote it up the 'Vine.

Back To Top Published to: • fechancellor's Column, All of Newsvine • Groups: Down With Tin Horn Dictators, Newsvine Computer Society, NYT Dowd Sandbox Alumni, ObamaVine, Political Analysis, Politics in Asia, SubcontinentalVine, The War Room, VTGSON, Worldviews • Regions: Chattanooga Public Discussion (0)

Down With Tin Horn Dictators

NYT Dowd Sandbox Alumni The War Room

VTGSON

ObamaVine Worldviews

Newsvine Computer Society

Political Analysis

Politics in Asia

SubcontinentalVine

Start New Group Discussion

irandesk - Enter Your Comment: You're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead.

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009

Newsvine - Tehran's 2 Revolutions

Page 7 of 7

You are posting this comment to a publicly viewable discussion.

As a new user, you may notice a few temporary content restrictions. Click here for more info.

Start Tracking

Stop Tracking

COMPANY STUFF: LEGAL STUFF:

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2009/07/29/3087563-tehrans-2-revolutions

30/07/2009