The latest climate projections

What might New Zealand’s temperature, wind and rainfall levels look like over the rest of this century?

Using information on Aotearoa’s unique landscape and climate conditions, alongside global data and science, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) recently developed its projections to show how the climate could change over the next 76 years. For the first time, this has been made publicly available by the Ministry for the Environment through the government’s Climate Data Initiative, with funding from the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment.

“Making these projections available means everyone can access the data and understand what climate change might mean for their community. This is an important step in improving access to climate information,” says Natasha Lewis, Deputy Secretary of Strategy Stewardship and Performance.

The projected changes to our climate

To determine how temperatures, rainfall, drought and wind might change over the rest of the century, the projections are based on Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Temperature

Our country experienced its second warmest year on record in 2023, just shy of the record set in 2022, with an average temperature of 13.6ºC. Climate change

projections for Aotearoa show further warming is projected by 2090, with more hot days and fewer cold days across the country over the next decades. By 2090, annual average temperatures across the country are projected to increase by 0.8ºC in SSP1-2.6, by 1.9ºC in SSP2-4.5, and by 3.0ºC in SSP3-7.0.

Rainfall

More very rainy days – where daily rainfall exceeds 25 mm – are expected for many regions, especially in the Westland District which is projected to experience between three and five more very rainy days on average by 2090. However, the Gisborne District is projected to experience up to two fewer very rainy days on average by 2090.

Drought

Drought exposure is projected to increase over the east and decrease in the west of the North and South Islands. For example, the Kaikōura District is projected to experience an increase in drought exposure by 2090.

Wind

There are projected to be fewer windy days – with maximum wind speed more than 10 metres per second – per year for much of the North Island, and more windy days per year in most of the South Island by 2090.