Toffler - I-Risk manager

The jobs of white-collar workers are most at risk from AI, according to a new government report

While risk managers are not specifically mentioned in the UK government’s most recent report on AI and jobs, there is plenty of cause for concern. It is the first time the impact of large language models (LLMs) has been included in such a government survey, and the message is clear – white-collar workers will be heavily impacted.

“The list of occupations most exposed to large language modelling includes many of the same occupations exposed to AI more generally,” the report concludes, “with both lists including solicitors, psychologists and management consultants and business analysts.” Let us say for argument’s sake that risk managers fall under the category of “business-related associate professionals” – they are in the top ten of jobs under threat from AI (but not LLMs specifically).

Communication is key

Short of becoming an elite sports player, or a forklift truck driver, risk managers may have to redefine what their jobs mean. Over the past few years, this trend has been taking place anyway if numerous interviews in this magazine are a reasonable prediction of the direction of travel for the profession.

Today, many chief risk officers and heads of risk see communication skills and interpersonal relationships as the most important attributes for many senior risk managers. First, a great deal of data crunching and analysis is automated or is in the process of becoming so. While machines are prone to error, the quantity of data they can process at speed cannot be matched by humans. But, second and more importantly, no amount of quantitative analysis can persuade a division manager or a board to take good, risk-informed decisions. Only a person can do that.

Wide-ranging consequences

Small teams of personable, risk experts supported by AI are likely to become the norm – but with consequences. First, where will those senior people come from when there are few junior staff coming through the ranks? Even if they are co-opted from the business, which happens today, responding to new threats and opportunities will be difficult without an experienced risk team.

Second, as new, more sophisticated approaches to risk develop, the underlying conceptual framework that risk software relies on will need to be changed. Programmers will do the physical work, but who will do the conceptual work on risk in the first place? Will only those risks that can be accurately quantified make their way onto the board agenda – and at what cost?

The risk profession could become hollowed out. More broadly, mass unemployment among white-collar workers will strip much of the spending power out of our consumer-oriented societies. That could be a huge risk for companies aiming to serve consumers in non-essential commodities – there will be fewer consumers and many of the ones that survive will be lower-paid workers: roofers, tilers, and those in “elementary construction occupations,” according to the report.

Paying people to do nothing is unlikely to solve the problem –something that has been called a basic income guarantee. Not because it will create a “nation of slackers” – there will be little work anyway, so slacking will be normal – but because no government would want to be the first to do so as the impact on immigration would be intense.

In fact, the risk of AI to the profession itself cannot be worked out by machines – but is a pressing question that demands an answer soon.