Friends with Foes?

enemies, both are necessary to succeed in politics

By KYAW ZWA MOE

forging of new friendships, even if this involves some risk.

Friends with Benefits?

Despite her noble intentions, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s image has become tainted both internationally and domestically.

Probably in an effort not to alienate the government, she has taken a “neutral” stand— seemingly at odds to her customary outspoken character—and choose to be silent on sensitive issues such as the ongoing conflict between government troops and the ethnic rebel Kachin Independence Army in northernmost Myanmar, where tens of thousands of civilians have been forced to refugee camps by the Chinese border.

Most Kachin feel betrayed, thus costing the opposition leader the support of many who enabled the NLD to win 73 percent of Kachin State parliamentary seats in the annulled 1990 general election.

But that is not all. Regarding the bloody conflict between Rohingya Muslims and Rakhine Buddhists in western Myanmar, the 67-year-old said, “We do not want to criticize the government just for the sake of making political capital. We want to help the government in any way possible to bring about peace and harmony in the Rakhine State.” Again, her “neutral” stand disappointed everyone outside Naypyitaw’s corridors of power—the international community, the Rakhine people and the Rohingya.

The reason behind this conciliatory approach became apparent when she said during her trip to the US, “What has happened in the past has taught us that if we want to succeed we have to work together and the whole future of Burma is before us,” using the country’s former name. “If we are to ensure this future for the succeeding generations, we all have to learn to work together.”

Having huge influence over foreign leaders, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi advocated Western countries to lift sanctions against Myanmar— something that U Thein Sein’s administration desperately desired while also providing the opportunity to reintegrate into global affairs.

Understanding the important role of the powerful Tatmadaw in the reform process, she also informally tried to befriend high-ranking military officials in Parliament by inviting them for informal meetings over lunch. But the top brass reportedly refused her offers, signaling that there is still a way to go. This will be a monumental task for the opposition leader, despite being the daughter of national hero Gen Aung San, the founder of the Tatmadaw.

Successful or not, this pacifying political trend is highly likely to continue until the 2015 election. As chairpersons of the NLD and the ruling USDP respectively, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Thein Sein must try to defeat each other at the upcoming ballot, despite the need to maintain a cordial atmosphere for national reconciliation.

But how long can this last? Considering the schoolyard taunting that characterizes the UK Parliament and the belligerent rhetoric that marred this year’s US presidential elections, it appears that “true democracy” requires a willingness to accept a certain amount of confrontation when debating key issues.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will try to win a landslide victory for her party as she did in 1990—if conducted freely and fairly, such an outcome seems almost certain. On the other hand, U Thein Sein and his team will be determined to maintain the current political structure of having three important power holders—the government, Tatmadaw and Parliament dominated by the military—while also maintaining an NLD presence in the legislature for the sake of appearances.

Thus, we can assume that it is highly unlikely that the 2015 election will be strictly free and fair. Myanmar’s next five years look likely to be a continuation of the status quo but with the NLD and other parties gaining more seats in the legislature.

Even if the 2008 Constitution is amended to allow Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to take top office, the highest position she might be able to obtain is as one of the two vice-presidents. Seeing the growing support for U Thein Sein, both internationally and domestically, and the USDP’s determination to come out on top by hook or by crook, he looks likely to stay in power until the end of the decade.

However, if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the president shift away from the “making friends strategy,” Myanmar’s traditionally uncertain political landscape could become even more unpredictable.