COver StOry

senior KIO leaders agreed to meet on Feb. 4 in the Chinese border town of Ruili in Yunnan Province.

In the presence of Chinese observers, the parties agreed to schedule more ceasefire talks before the end of February. The KIO insisted that further political dialogue with the government should include all 11 ethnic militias in Myanmar, who are allied in the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC).

It was also decided that the UN and international relief agencies would be allowed to provide aid to all displaced

Kachin civilians, including to the approximately 45,000 displaced in rebelcontrolled areas. The government had so far prevented international aid from reaching these areas.

President U Thein Sein’s spokesman U Ye Htut said the long-standing demands of the KIO and the UNFC— political autonomy for minority regions and amending the 2008 Constitution— would be discussed at the upcoming meeting, but he added that political issues would ultimately have to be resolved at a later stage.

“We also have to discuss these issues with other ethnic armed groups. As the President [U Thein Sein] said, inclusive meetings will be held with the Parliament, the political parties and the civil society groups in the future,” he said when pressed about a political solution to the Kachin conflict. (See the next page for more on the government’s position on the conflict.)

Neither the government or the KIO have revealed how many casualties they sustained during the conflict.

If a ceasefire agreement is reached, the Kachin would join Myanmar’s 10 other major rebel militias, which already have such agreements with Naypyitaw. Yet, the recent conflict has done much to undermine the other groups’ trust in the government’s commitment to peace with Burma’s minorities.

The Kachin conflict, nonetheless, seems far from over, as it remains unclear how a political solution can be reached, while the KIA—despite their recent losses—remain a confident fighting force.

During the fighting around Laiza the rebels frequently stated with calm defiance that if they lost their base, KIA units would simply escape through the forested mountains that they know so well, in order to regroup and fight another day.

“Even if we lose Laiza we would continue to fight for the Kachin people. We don’t choose only one strategy in our revolutionary journey,” KIO joint secretary La Nan said on Jan. 22, shortly after the loss of key Kachin defense posts.

As I left Laiza on Feb. 5 it indeed seemed as if the Kachin rebels were quietly adapting to a new phase in the long-running conflict with government, raising the question whether anyone gained anything from the bloody battle for Laiza.