Methodology

The analysis that has been presented in this report is based on nationwide surveys conducted in April–May 2019, May 2018, May 2017 and April–May 2014 by the Lokniti programme of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. While the surveys done in 2019 and 2014 were part of the National Election Study that Lokniti conducted during the Lok Sabha elections, the surveys conducted in 2018 and 2017 were part of Lokniti’s Mood of the Nation series.

The 2019 survey was a Post Poll conducted a few days after voters had voted in each phase of the Lok Sabha election and the 2014 survey was a Pre Poll conducted three weeks before the Lok Sabha election.

The fieldwork for the 2019 survey was conducted in 26 States – Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and West Bengal. A total of 24,236 voters were interviewed in 211 parliamentary constituencies.

The fieldwork for the 2018 survey was conducted in 19 States – Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. A total of 15,859 respondents were interviewed in 175 parliamentary constituencies.

The fieldwork for the 2017 survey was conducted in 19 States – Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. A total of 11,373 respondents were interviewed in 146 parliamentary constituencies.

The fieldwork for the 2014 survey was conducted in 21 States – Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and West Bengal. A total of 20,957 respondents were interviewed in 301 parliamentary constituencies.

The sampling process adopted across all surveys was multi-stage random sampling – first the parliamentary constituencies were sampled, then the assembly constituencies within them, then polling stations within them, and finally the voters who were to be interviewed from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling station. At each of these stages the systematic random sampling procedure was adopted.

Once we identified our sample of the electorate, trained investigators were sent to meet them. Our investigators sat down in the homes of people whose names were selected from the electoral roll, and asked them a detailed set of questions using a standardized semistructured interview schedule. All the interview schedules were translated to local languages – in West Bengal it was in Bengali, in Tamil Nadu in Tamil, in Rajasthan in Hindi and so on.

While doing the all-India analysis we adjusted the figures using a statistical technique known as weighting, which means that each State was proportionately represented in the analysis. The achieved raw sample across all four surveys has also been weighted by gender, locality, religion, and caste group based on Census 2011.

Profile of the achieved raw national sample compared with Census 2011 (%)

May 2014 May 2017 May 2018 May 2019 Actual share in India’s population Census 2011 Women 46 48 46 48 49 Urban 26 28 22 27 31 SC 19 17 19 19 17

ST 8 10 9 9 9 Muslim 13 11 12 14 14 Christian 2 2 2 3 2 Sikh 3 2 2 2 2

Note: Figures have been rounded off.