Annotated Table of Contents
Threat Multiplier Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security
By Sherri GoodmanIntroduction
Threat Multiplier takes readers onto the battlefield and inside the Pentagon to show how the US military is confronting the biggest security risk in global history: climate change. Threat Multiplier carries us along the military’s environment and climate journey, as today they recognize that a warming world exacerbates every threat from hurricanes and forest fires to terrorism and power plays by Russia and China. The Pentagon now considers climate in war games, disaster relief planning, international diplomacy, and even the design of its own bases. No one knows the stakes better than Sherri Goodman, the nation’s first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security). In Threat Multiplier, she offers a front row seat to the military’s fight for global security, a tale that is as hopeful as it is harrowing.
Making every fragile state more vulnerable and every conflict more dangerous, climate change is a “threat multiplier,” a phrase coined by the author in 2007 Actions by the US military have had long-lasting health and environmental consequences both at home and abroad, yet, today, environmental stewardship is integral to the US military’s activities. The introduction provides an overview of the author’s unique background and inspiration for writing the book, as well as outlines the upcoming chapters, setting the tone for how to look at climate change from a security lens.
Chapter 1. From Weapons to Waste
As the Cold War draws to a close and environmental concerns are on the rise, the 1980s provided the foundation for the military’s environmental awakening. This chapter sets the stage for the book, telling the story of how the US went from producing nuclear weapons
materials at plants across the US to shutting the whole nuclear weapons complex down and converting it into a cleanup operation, and it illuminates how the collapse of the nuclear weapons complex paved the way for the era of environmental security. This environmental awakening for the defense complex had both likely and unlikely champions. This chapter tells the stories of the senators who shaped the environmental future of defense, and how the author, in her early career as the junior and only female professional staff member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, acted as the mediator in this legislative battle. Conveying details about how key American officials grapples with the changing tides in national security and public policy this chapter sets the foundation for the remainder of the book.
Chapter 2. The Birth of Environmental Security
This chapter plunges the reader in the Pentagon of the 1990s, as the Cold War ends, and key leaders start to integrate environmental considerations into military strategy, planning, and training. It follows the author, then the first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security), as she navigates the politics of closing bases and environmental cleanup amid DOD’s competing economic and defense interests, giving the reader an insider’s view of defense budgeting on environment. We learn how the author and thenArmy Chief of Staff Gordon Sullivan bonded over protection of the endangered redcockaded woodpecker, which had shut down training at an Army base, and how efforts to protect the desert tortoise in the Mojave Desert enabled the Army to preserve tank training while becoming more environmentally responsible The chapter also examines the beginnings of environmental cooperation between DOD and other militaries abroad in conducting environmental education and training, showcasing environmental technology, and modeling interagency collaboration.
Chapter 3. Generals and Admirals Battle Climate Change
Nearing the end of the twentieth century, Goodman oversaw coordinating DOD’s position as part of the overall US strategy for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. As the federal government’s biggest energy user, the Department of Defense was not convinced that reducing emission from gas guzzling weapons would allow it to maintain its position as the most well-trained fighting force in the world. As Goodman learned throughout the negotiations process, it would take greater global sense of climate urgency to force these changes. The chapter then takes the reader into the deliberations of the first group of generals and admirals to examine climate change as a national security risk in the mid-2000s, as part of the CNA (Center for Naval Analyses)’ Military Advisory Board, under the leadership of the author. It tells the
author’s story of recruiting the Board, the scientific process followed, the climate experts consulted, the lessons learned, and the obstacles encountered. It zooms in on the findings that climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” for security. This effort laid the groundwork for climate change to become widely accepted as a security threat through the US and international community, effectively shaping the future of climate security.
The next chapters take the reader around four geographical areas with the generals and admirals who made climate change their personal mission, illustrating the intersection between the rising geopolitical tensions and the rising tides and temperatures.
Chapter 4. Melting Ice and Rising Tensions in the Arctic
This chapter takes the reader to the Arctic where retreating sea-ice, rising temperatures, and thawing permafrost combine with preexisting concerns about Russia’s Arctic ambitions and to create a new security paradigm. The author examines how changing climate patterns intersect with new security dynamics among the world’s great powers the US, Russia, and China in a region that had been known, even during the Cold War, as a zone of peaceful cooperation. The story is told through the eyes of the sailors whose own military experiences were shaped by the changing climate opening up the region to greater maritime traffic and dramatically affecting naval operations It explains how Russia is eager to monetize its Arctic assets, including oil, gas and shipping lanes, and how increased military and economic activity in the region brings increased risk of miscalculations, accidents at sea, and ecological disasters. It also examines the intensification of less overt threats happening below the threshold of military response, such as Russian disinformation tactics and potentially dualuse Chinese and Russian scientific research facilities in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. With a deep dive into a scenario-based tabletop exercise involving a maritime nuclear incident in the Arctic, developed by the author in 2019, the chapter offers policy recommendations and future research directives for the Arctic.
Chapter 5. Drought, Oil, and Power in Africa and the Middle East
There are three primary ways in which water insecurity interacts with the risk of conflict across the Middle East and Africa Through the stories of some of the first military leaders to witness first-hand the effects of climate change and natural resource destruction on instability, the reader experiences one of the most complex and conflict-ridden regions. The author first examines how prolonged drought endangers human security and livelihoods pushing an already fragile region toward violent extremism and, in some cases, civil war. It
then assesses how water can be weaponized during an ongoing conflict in drought-stressed areas - a scenario that has played out throughout this region, from Syria and Iraq to Nigeria and Somalia On a more hopeful note, the chapter ends with a discussion on how water can become a catalyst for cooperation, and even a tool for peacebuilding. Through the case of EcoPeace Middle East, a nongovernmental organization headquartered in Amman, Jordan; Tel Aviv, Israel; and Ramallah, Palestine, the chapter demonstrates how this this group works to advance water cooperation and confront the shared risks climate change poses for the region.
Chapter 6. Navigating Asia’s Disaster Alley
Climate risk is putting the lives of billions at risk and reshaping security dynamics in the region. As combating growing Chinese influence demands working closely with Pacific allies on environmental matter our military’s efforts in this corner of the world have shifted. This chapter takes the reader to the far-flung U.S. bases in Hawaii, where, through the lens of naval commanders, the reader gains insight into how our forces are increasingly called upon to provide disaster relief across the region. It then explains how improving state capacity, making institutions more inclusive, and providing international assistance can be determinative factors in building climate resilience – with the case of Bangladesh, where waves of citizens are moving towards dense urban areas o escape sea level rise. The author then assesses the case of Australia, one of America’s essential partners, as growing climate vulnerability both domestically and regionally puts a strain on Australian Defence Forces and undermines their combat readiness The chapter ends by recalling how some Pacific Islands nations, like Kiribati, may disappear in the coming decades as seas rise. This reality underscores and the importance of the concept of “migration with dignity” – which means allowing greater agency in human displacements.
Chapter 7. Imperiled Neighbors to the South
Sandwiched between the warming Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Latin America and the Caribbean is battered by rising seas, increasing droughts, strengthening hurricanes, and more frequent fires and floods. This chapter takes the reader to our neighboring region, where climate stress is weakening efforts to advance economic and social development The chapter first zooms in on the U.S. military’s response to Hurricane María. As Puerto Rican communities were already struggling with economic disparity and poverty, the 2019 hurricane compounded insecurity and access to energy It details how long-term drought, extreme hurricanes and governmental instability have fueled migration northwards and increased demand for humanitarian relief, magnifying the need to create accessible
migration pathways and build regional resilience. It then follows the author to Panama where, in 1997, she co-hosted a conference to promote new partnerships on environmental protection between the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and leaders across the Americas. This effort paved the way for SOUTHCOM’s increasing focus on building partnerships for climate and environmental resilience as well as increasing environmental stewardship role in a region vulnerable to biodiversity crime and resource extraction.
The final three chapter illuminate the impact climate change on military bases and weapons systems. We hear the stories of warfighters and the lessons they learned throughout their service as the U.S. military works to improve its climate resilience and transitions to lowercarbon energy.
Chapter 8. Climate Readiness on the Home Base
This chapter examines how the onslaught of extreme weather has shifted military thinking about environmental considerations, with a focus on bases. Over the past four decades, the military has moved from reluctant compliance with environmental laws to an awareness that environmental protection improves military operations and contributes to a healthy quality of life for military service members and their families. Rising sea levels at coastal bases intensifying storms paralyzing naval operations, raging wildfires encroaching on military fly zones – this chapter explores how these climate trends have shaped the military’s response to domestic natural disasters, from Superstorm Sandy in 2012 to persistent wildfires today. America’s military has become a domestic, as well as global, 911 force for disaster response It then examines how DoD is taking action to prepare its forces, equipment and bases - from storm-resilient buildings to energy-efficient infrastructure ready for power outages. Three approaches are considered for bases facing climate threats: defend in place; adapt the mission; or conduct a measured withdrawal. The chapter underscores the importance of working with the surrounding civilian communities, rooting resilience in nature-based solutions, and building bipartisanship - with the growing acknowledgment that smart environmental protection promotes military readiness.
Chapter 9. Less Fuel, More Fight
The DOD is the nation’s single largest energy user, accounting for about 1% of all US energy use and 93% of all US government fuel consumption. This chapter begins at the Bagram airfield, the largest military logistics hub in Afghanistan, at the height of the US deployment to Afghanistan in 2008. Through the eyes of the young military officer responsible for vehicles entering the base, the reader recognizes how reducing reliance on fuel minimizes
security risks for soldiers on the field and lessens the financial burden of transporting energy to remote locations in Iraq and Afghanistan The chapter then exposes the enormously complex undertaking of disentangling the military’s tether to fuel, requiring significant investments and technological advancements. What started as a warfighting measure to save lives and reduce dependence on foreign sources of oil evolves into an opportunity for the military to transition to cleaner energy. Today, DOD is not only reducing its energy demand, but it has also set ambitious targets to achieve net-zero emissions and reduce carbon pollution from greenhouse gasses across the military mission The chapter explains how advanced energy technologies enable strategic advantage and improve military capability while enabling DOD to lead by example as it transitions toward a more sustainable energy future.
Chapter 10. Climate-Proofing Security
This final chapter takes stock of the progress made and the lessons learned in understanding and improving climate security throughout the author’s career, and outlines recommendations for the way forward: improve awareness through climate prediction to prepare for and prevent future disasters; adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change through education and climate literacy, more humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions, and resilient infrastructure; move towards a net-zero military to reduce emissions and gain a strategic advantage in combat power and military capability; and strengthen global alliances to reimagine climate cooperation and competition. The book ends with an argument to recognize our common vulnerability and transform the unprecedented climate threat into an opportunity for mutually assured resilience through prosperity, innovation, and shared purpose.