Ivester Jackson Christie's Market Report & Forecast for 2019

from Ivester Jackson Christie's Market Report & Forecast for 2019

by Ivester Jackson

CONTENTS

SOUTHPARK

MYERS PARK | EASTOVER

LAKE WYLIE | PALISADES

WEDDINGTON | PROVIDENCE | WAXHAW

BALLANTYNE | FT. MILL

Research Provided by the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association

The Charlotte Region's luxury real estate market closed the 4th quarter of 2018 with mixed results. After posting very strong results in almost all the luxury price segments throughout the year, financial market instability, rising mortgage rates, and trade discourse all combined to push some contractual activity into a holding pattern. The mid-market luxury segment between $500,000 and $1 million was slightly off of 2017's finishing quarter, after posting strong results throughout the year, while the luxury segment above $1 million posted mixed results, with some areas showing some at least temporary softness while others posted gains. We discuss each area in detail in this report and provide a forecast for 2019 as well.

S O U T H P A R K

The SouthPark area displayed another quarter of mixed results, with the midmarket luxury segment just below $1 million in list price showing a solid spike in pending contracts, while the luxury segments above $1 million showed a slight decline in closings compared to the last quarter of 2017. The year ends with a solid 19 pending contracts over $1 million which when combined with the spike in showings in the range between $1 million and $2 million, points to a very solid first quarter. The ultra-luxury range saw a decline in showing activity over the past 60 days.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in SouthPark

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in SouthPark

M Y E R S P A R K & E A S T O V E R

The luxury property market in Myers Park and Eastover showed strong demand yet a "holding pattern" when it came to actual transactions. In the mid-market luxury segment below $1 million, closings declined over 2017's final quarter, with 19 homes closing vs 27 the year before. The million dollar range bucked the downward trend and closed a solid 17 transactions vs 15 in 2017, while the ultra-luxury segment over $2 million in list price, slumped from 5 closings the year before, to just 2 in 2018's final quarter.

Showings continued to be very strong in all 3 price segments with the luxury range over $1 million recording an increase in showing activity of well over 50% the past 60 days in comparison with last winter. This continued strong demand points to an increase in pending contracts in the first quarter of 2019 provided there is continued settling in the financial markets.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Myers Park

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Myers Park

L A K E W Y L I E / P A L I S A D E S

The Lake Wylie Palisades area bucked the Charlotte region in the mid-market luxury segment, recording a 14% increase in sell-thru in the 4th quarter, riding the strength of new construction offerings in the area. The region also shows 70 homes pending on a total inventory of 100 homes, very solid sell thru with just over 4 months of inventory available.

Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in South Charlotte & SC

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Lake Wylie

P R O V I D E N C E

W E D D I N G T O N

W A X H A W

The southern Providence Road corridor down into Union County tapered in closing activity in the just completed 4th Quarter when compared to 2017's results. The mid-market luxury segment saw a decline from 119 closed units in 2017's final quarter to 76 in the final quarter of 2018. The luxury ranges above $1 million also showed slight declines.

Interestingly, the mid-market luxury segment below $1 million showed continued high demand as showings showed an almost 50% increase over the previous winter. This dynamic continues to point to overall demand, yet short term uncertainty over financial markets and interest rates. With the markets settling and rates ticking down, this excess showing activity will likely translate into more contracts in the first quarter. Inventory levels continue to be balanced at 4-6 months in all three ranges.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Waxhaw

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Waxhaw

BA L L A N T Y N E & SO U T H C A R O L I N A

The Ballantyne and upstate South Carolina area replicated much of the Charlotte region with a slight dip in the mid-market luxury segment below $1 million in list price. The luxury range above $1 million, saw a solid jump with 5 homes closing compared to just 1 in the last quarter of 2017. There are also 3 houses pending in that range as we move into 2019.

Showings in both segments in the Ballantyne/SC area were flat in comparison to last winter, which indicates solid continued demand heading into the first quarter. Inventory in the midmarket range stood at a very solid 90 days of inventory while the luxury range above $1 million showed 9 months of inventory.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Ballantyne

CHARLOTTE MARKET FORECAST

Following a lackluster 4th quarter in most cases, the luxury market flipped the switch as 2019 started. Showings, which despite the downturn in 4th quarter contracts, had continued to exceed the prior winter's activity throughout December and early January clearly demonstrated continued demand from buyers. With January's rally in the financial markets and the softening of the Federal Reserve's tendency toward additional first half rate increases, the real estate market in the Charlotte region spiked upward in recent weeks. Both showing activity and pending contracts have surged upward following the turmoil of the 4th quarter. Mortgage rates plummeted to below 4.5% while trade discourse also seemed to disappear from the headlines. These changes have all combined to provide a hot start to 2019, particularly in the luxury segment of offerings in the million dollar range. We believe that the increase in showings when compared to last year's start to

2018, demonstrate that there is plenty of wherewithal and demand to support an active market through the second quarter. Charlotte continues to garner accolades, such as the recent Robb Report feature in which Christie's CEO Dan Conn pinpointed Charlotte as one of the top 5 real estate markets in the world for 2019, along with such other flagship markets as Singapore and Paris, France. As we move toward a presidential election year, we've historically seen solid activity up to the period immediately preceding the election, which points to a more conservative outlook in 2020, particularly the second half, but for now we believe activity for much of this year will at least be on par with the past couple years in the luxury segments.

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Ivester Jackson Christie's Market Report & Forecast for 2019