Lake Norman Market Report and 2019 Forecast

from Lake Norman Market Report and 2019 Forecast

by Ivester Jackson

CORNELIUS

DAVIDSON

MOORESVILLE

DENVER | THE WEST SHORE

NORTH SHORE

4TH QUARTER | LAKE NORMAN LUXURY MARKET REPORT

Lake Norman's main communities mostly saw solid finishes to 2018, with four of our five reporting areas recording higher property sell thru rates in the 4th quarter than in those of the same period the prior year. The mid-market luxury segment below $1 million posted strong increases in Davidson, the emerging NorthShore area above the 150 bridge, as well as traditionally strong Cornelius. The million dollar range continued to record a strong year, with sales of homes listed between $1 million and $2 million attracting buyers in record numbers. The ultra-luxury segment above $2 million posted similar results to 2017, with 28 homes closing in the MLS (12 Ivester Jackson brokered transactions) vs 29 the year before. There were also numerous off-market private sales above the $2 million dollar range to go along with new construction deals. Below is a summary of how each individual community and a forecast for the first half of the year.

C O R N E L I U S

The Cornelius luxury market ended 2019 with a strong spike in the mid-market luxury segment, as closings in the $500k to $999k range jumped from 22 in 2017's 4th quarter, to 30 for 2018's final quarter. Results in the million dollar and up range also spiked for the quarter, with 14 homes closing between $1 and $2 million while the ultra-luxury range over $2 million saw one sale. Pending contracts in all three ranges have been solid as we start 2019, with 19 homes pending on an active inventory of 79 homes over $500k. There are 35 homes listed over $1 million, with just 22 homes for sale in The Peninsula.

Showings thus far in 2019 have been mixed, as the mid-market luxury range below $1 million has seen a near 40% spike in showings compared to the start of 2018, while the luxury range over $1 million has lagged last year's start to the year.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Cornelius

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Cornelius

D A V I D S O N

Like Cornelius, Davidson showed robust growth in mid-market luxury home sales, as the $500k-$999k range blew away 2017's final quarter by almost 40 percent. The luxury range above $1 million leveled off somewhat, after a robust quarter in the fall that saw 6 sales, the 4th quarter reported 2 sales, comparable with last year. Inventory levels in Davidson remain with 60 homes on the market vs 29 having closed in what is normally the slowest quarter of the year. There are 17 active homes in River Run currently.

Davidson has seen comparable showing activity to last winter at this time, with total showings running slightly head below $1 million, while the luxury range over $1 million lags last year's winter activity and bears watching.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Davidson

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Davidson

M O O R E S V I L L E

Mooresville's luxury market showed mixed results as the year came to a close. The range just below $1 million saw 65 sold homes, comparable to Q4 in 2017, while the segment above $1 million and the ultra luxury range both saw slight declines. Interestingly, all 4 sales over $2 million were spread across Mooresville's waterfront compared to 2017 which saw 7 sales in that range, all in The Point. The million dollar range is starting the year with a solid 9 pendings.

Showings in the mid-market luxury range below $1 million spiked over the past 60 days, with showing activity up close to 40%. The million dollar range showed solid activity, flat around $1 million and slightly ahead in the ultra luxury range over $ 2 million.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Mooresville

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Mooresville

D E N V E R | W E S T S H O R E

The West Shore area saw a curious decline in the mid-market luxury space below $1 million, with 23 homes closing in the Q4 vs the 34 closed in 2017's final quarter. The luxury segment saw a slight increase over the prior year with 5 homes trading above $1 million in list price vs 3 last year, and the year is starting with 1 pending contract.

Showings in the under $1 million also declined while the luxury range saw a solid increase from 12 showings in 2017 Q4 to 34 in the just-completed quarter. It's possible that some of the decline in the lower segment is due to improved road access to the northern parts of the lake, it will be interesting to watch this price point as it's been on a solid two-year upward trend.

Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie's Sales in Denver

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in Denver

N O R T H S H O R E

The NorthShore area's luxury segment continued its recent coming of age trend, posting a surprisingly strong 4th quarter in line with what is usually the busier fall quarter's results. The mid-market luxury segment below $1 million posted a strong near 50% increase in housing unit sell thru, jumping from 22 units to 33 sales when comparing the just completed quarter to that of 2017's final quarter. The luxury segment over $1 million continued its upward trajectory with 9 homes closing vs 7 the prior year, and a very strong 7 currently pending moving into 2019.

Showing activity above the 150 bridge was solid on both sides of the lake, with luxury segment posting a spike from 15 showings over $1 million last winter, to 48 in the past 60 days. New construction communities like Sisters Cove and Lakewalk off Bluefield Road have been snagging their share of the luxury buyer traffic, a trend which should continue into 2019.

New Ivester Jackson | Christie's Listing in North Shore

LAKE NORMAN MARKET FORECAST

After dramatic stock market volatility, concern over continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, international trade concerns and the government shutdown, contract activity in the fourth quarter no doubt took a hit. Encouragingly, four of our five community areas we cover in this report showed even or better results than the prior year's ending quarter. Luxury consumers continued to look at houses in record numbers, as evidenced by double digit showing increases in almost every area when compared to the prior year's winter period. This increase clearly demonstrates that demand in the price ranges above $500,000 in value is still strong, and with an about face in mortgage rates (back below 4.5%), the financial markets recovering much of what I lost as the year closed, as well as an apparent softening in Federal Reserve upward trajectory, it appears that for at least the short to medium term our local markets should enjoy solid sell thru for the first quarter and into the second quarter. The Charlotte region continues to garner high profile accolades, most recently with luxury publication Robb Report and Christie's CEO Dan Conn placing it among the top five places to invest in real estate worldwide for 2019. Joining the likes of places like Singapore and Paris (insert link). As we near 2020's election year, there historically has been some tapering, particularly prior to the election itself but for early 2019, the leading indicators point to a solid start particularly in the range just below and above $1 million in value.

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Lake Norman Market Report and 2019 Forecast