8 minute read
What now for the pizza and Italian food
What now for the
pizza and Italian food market?
Pizza and Italian foods are a long-established food favourite for Brits who have purchased from outlets and eaten them in restaurants on a regular basis for many years now. Pizza and pasta/Italian food were the number two category for eating out of home, after British, prepandemic, observe sector analysts, MealTrak, but what now?
HAS THE PANDEMIC CHANGED THAT OUTLOOK?
At MealTrak, we tracked the changes in consumption trends for food to go and eating out throughout the pandemic. We could understand very quickly, the mindset of the consumer by tracking changes with our continuous data throughout. This has been an invaluable tool to our clients and enabled them to react and evolve their propositions to reflect the changes in needs of their consumers. We will take a look at the pizza and pasta market from a couple of viewpoints to give a rounded assessment of Eating Out (restaurants), Food on the Go (takeaways/QSR) and Delivered.
EATING OUT (RESTAURANTS/PUBS)
As we all know, this sector was one of the most significantly impacted by the effects of restrictions. This is reflected most vividly when looking at the number of occasions when a cuisine was consumed in the past 12 months and shows they are currently at -64%, but this has been steadily improving over the summer. In April, the 12 month number was -80%. The improvement is most markedly seen in the latest 12 weeks vs the same period last year and shows there have been +26% more occasions. When the data is broken down the individual key cuisine Italian food has experienced a slightly lower level of decline and is bouncing back quicker. The difference for 52 weeks, year on year was -60%. However, looking at the statistics for the YOY comparison of the 12 week period, there is a marked positive note; a difference of +24%. This is an impressive 84 percentage points in the right direction! (source MealTrak Wave 91 to August 9th, 2021).
The data demonstrates that there is a level of confidence being restored in eating out and, at first glance, this appears to be an extremely positive step. It is certainly a positive move towards a more sustainable category, but is it as it could be?
There have been some significant jumps to recovery for some cuisines, Lebanese being the most impressive bounce 12 weeks YOY but this is from a low base figure. Italian cuisine is still the strongest international category at a value of £637m Year to 9th August 2021. The next nearest international cuisine is American/Tex Mex, but at a value of £185m Year to 9th August 2021, it’s considerably lower than Italian. Other positive bounces, but still not achieving the overall value of Italian are Thai, Vietnamese and South American – all of which have ingredients which are, perhaps, unfamiliar to the British cooking population.
CAPITALISING ON TRENDING MISSIONS IN EATING OUT
Understanding the customer’s reason to purchase through their missions and needs is a powerful indicator for menu or product development. It’s more than just what’s been purchased…it’s that in-depth reasoning behind the consumption of food – the what, why, how, where and who by of consumption.
Two of the key missions identified throughout lockdown was the need to “treat” and to satisfy a “craving”. With so many furloughed, the home baking and cooking wave exploded. We all remember the flour and yeast shortage as the UK decided, almost en masse, to bake bread, many for the first time ever! But those who understood this mindset, realised that not everything would be easy to cook or make from scratch. The real winners throughout lockdown were those that were able to provide a real point of difference – something creative, satisfying and unfamiliar that would be a real treat to eat and possibly a little complicated to reproduce at home.
Throughout the pandemic, one of the biggest cravings was emotionally driven. The MealTrak mission tracker has identified that, by far the biggest factor in eating out of home is the “need to eat with friends”. It’s this highly social element of eating out that was a true craving throughout and now, with hospitality re-opened, this mission has increased by +101% and represents an even greater mission than the food eaten out with family. From a development perspective are your products matching this trend… ie sharing platters, tapas style sharing plates, large portions to serve at the table and share amongst a group?
So, who are these people who are looking to consume your food? By breaking down the data further we can identify exactly who is consuming and, just as importantly, what time of day the food is being consumed… again all this give cues to product design and presentation.
The data does show that women continue to be the most frequent consumers of Italian foods (54%), however men have shown significant gains. The age range is interesting too as shows that 24 to 44 year olds are the largest group of consumers (46%) the highest growth has come from 65+.
The timing of consumption has also changed but not quite as dramatically as for some of the less traditional categories of cuisine. MealTrak has observed the “shoulder” periods within the day of mid-morning and mid-afternoon as a growth trend during the pandemic which is currently proving to remain in play. Italian cuisine, traditionally seen as a lunch and evening destination cuisine, has seen growth mid-afternoon and Tuesdays appear to have had the most positive bounce back, rather than the weekends (+72%).
WHAT HAPPENED TO FOOD ON THE GO PIZZA?
Pizza in food on the go (FOTG) captures pizza that was bought at a takeaway or delivered. Whilst pizza sales did drop over the last year their performance was significantly better (or less poor) than all of Food on the Go (-28% pizza vs -58% FOTG). However, the performance of pizza was significantly outstripped by the QSR fast food outlets such as McDonalds and KFC who are all tracking up year on year. From a consumer age perspective pizza in FOTG is significantly geared towards 18 to 35 year olds (classic millennial and gen Z) with 56% of all occasions being amongst this cohort. When looking at gender participation there is a heavier participation amongst women at 57% of all occasions. The implications for pizza outlets is that the product and marketing propositions need to ensure that they appeal enough to the younger female population. Understanding their wider food repertoire and how they consume will offer many more clues to successful recipe development and campaign positioning.
IS HOME DELIVERY STILL THE STRATEGIC ANSWER?
A key question asked of the MealTrak panel users was “How did you get your takeaway?” YOY changes for 52 weeks to 9th August 2021 showed growth in the use of delivery service companies, in preference to collection or delivered by the restaurant. Many restaurants were seen to create their own delivery initiatives during lockdown and, where once customers would, perhaps, only have access to eating in, local restaurants and eateries rose to the challenge to ensure their survival and created their own “takeaway” service which was obviously appreciated. Increased use of companies such as Deliveroo and Just Eats, even for QSR’s, gained momentum, although the 12 weeks YOY period to Aug 9th showed a slowing of this trend. This may be a temporary lull for the summer holiday period but MealTrak will continue to monitor this carefully for the coming months.
Another potential cause for the decline over the 12 week period could also be related with the previously mentioned need to socialise once more. That feeling of “getting out again and living”, the drive to return to normal social events has been magnified over this period and many outlets are keen to make the most of this, encouraging customers to eat in with creative menus, the Instagramable décor and cosy, inviting eating environments.
It may be of interest to note that the only delivery service which has a seen positive growth over the 12 week period above is for the takeaway pizza.
The pizza consumption occasions out of home was at -41% YOY 52 weeks and currently it stands at -39% YOY 12 weeks, so there is a positive note, but limited.
WHAT DOES YOUR CONSUMER WANT?
The takeaways and those who managed to provide outdoor eating or takeaways during Covid are set to reap the benefits of their labour. Now it’s all about how to use that and innovate to tempt customers into coming back time and time again. Still the mission is for “treat” and “craving” above all else. Cost is not a huge factor – people are wanting to “live” again.
Understanding the whole picture allows you to make sound commercial decisions – are you happy with those statistics? Do you want to look to attract a different type of customer? If you’re wanting to diversify your customer base, you need to look at the whole food to go and eating out of home scene. Understand what’s driving them to other destinations, other food groups.
Italian food and pizzas continue to be the nation’s favourite international cuisine second only to British. The pandemic has had a significant effect on the whole of eating out and food to on the go sectors however the good news is there are significant indications in the data and wider news that there is a sustainable recovery underway. Creativity and innovation in product design and execution are very important so ensuring that the propositions are keeping up with the evolving needs of consumers is vital to future growth.
Our regular food missions are identifying emerging trends tempting these consumers through the doors … bottomless Sunday brunches, healthy lighter eating Oz/Cali options, exotic desserts and pastries, exciting plant-based options, punchy flavour and new packaging innovation in food on the go.
All Data Sourced: MealTrak.com Wave 91 data to Aug 9th, 2021.
