lunch! show panel discussion.

The same, but DIFFERENT…

BSA director, Jim Winship, chaired a lunch! show discussion canvassing the opinions of a market researcher (Nick Blake of MealTrak), independent operator (Marc Faulkner of Dentons Deli in St Helens) and chain operator (Amy James, category manager at Greggs).

A SLOW RECOVERY

In what in his opinion had been a dire time for the industry as a whole, Jim Winship asked panellists how they saw the sector recovering after Covid, it having “pretty much flawed our industry”, he suggested.

From a market researcher’s perspective, Nick Blake said that things will recover, but that the pace of recovery is likely to remain very slow, with pre-Covid levels of trading unlikely to be experienced again until the end of 2022 or even early 2023, with a likelihood of differing performance in various channels behind that (QSRs having performed better than others, such as more specialist operators, and likely to continue as such). It would, however, no longer be the same market; that was the critical aspect to take note of in his opinion (namely, different opportunities and different challenges along the way).

There had been a much stronger consumer focus on things such as sweet treats, and sharing, he reported, compared to pre-Covid, coupled with a move from city centre to suburb purchasing which will change consumer need and their decisionmaking process, he proposed. Thus, there was a need to plan for this and for operators to get their portfolio of appropriately targeted products positioned to take advantage of that demand as it comes back.

THE WHEN AND WHERE

From Greggs’ point of view, Amy James echoed what Nick Blake had said, referencing a changing, but combining, dynamic of time of day, location and working patterns (not least from home) with people increasingly likely to pop out at the end of their working from home day, when they had free time, in order to indulge in their OOH treat. Therefore, being able to be more convenient to people as locations change is important.

Large city centres and travel hubs had been struggling, she said, but then anything being accessed by cars had been performing well and in demand. People’s ideas about convenience was changing, with the safety element being seen as part of convenience now, she reported – this was still a key, environmental consideration for many, and the nature of the delivery channel associated with it (click and collect, for instance).

There had been a marked shift from the meal occasion to the ‘shoulder periods’, which could explain the move to sweet treats, felt Nick Blake, and getting out of the home for the purely breakfast or lunch occasion, and what Amy James termed “more purposeful visits” and “what else do I need while I’m there?” in the form of a ‘mission’ that was bigger than usual and likely involved more people.

Marc Faulkner, whose business is located outside of the traditional city centre, said that commuter towns had become characterised by people mostly working from home, with an uptake in order levels accordingly, to which they had adapted quickly. They had removed tables and chairs and focused on takeaway, people having not yet returned to the office, with a greater spend on drinks and snacks.

NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE?

Both Jim Winship and Amy James agreed that they had witnessed a greater ‘mask culture’ in the north than the south, people having been slower in some areas to feel that ability to go out, felt Amy James, and the more rural you are, the more contained people had become and less able to let down the guard to some extent, she felt.

“One of the big issues for the sector,” said Jim Winship, “is whether or not people were going to back to their offices, the risk of not doing so being a loss of team spirit and difficulty bringing in new staff, and plenty of hybrids on how to make it work, but that it is a critical factor to this industry.”

Nick Blake could see a return to offices, but with a hybrid model such as three days in the office, two days out/at home, for those who can (the ‘big four’ having downsized their office space to accommodate that already, and likely to represent a model for others to follow, even if in different circumstances). However, people working from home still remained heavy food to go consumers, he said, but the specific needs – such as sharing, if others at home – could be different, so adaptation was key.

“Packaging will need to tie in with delivery,” said Nick Blake. “Yes, the location of consumption would change, but the consumer would still be spending significant amounts of money on food to go.”

An interesting impact, he felt, would be the development of technology in the office space, with the advent of zoom meetings etc. stopping us from moving around as much – travel having been a trigger for food purchase – meaning there could be an issue as more food to go is consumed in the home.

In which case, there was a dilemma as to where to open shops for operators such as Greggs, Jim Winship highlighted.

“The good thing is that we have always had a diverse estate which has always been in our favour,” said Amy James.

“We do have suburban shops, shops that we consider a little bit more local. But what I think is really going to be important, is giving that reason to come out and have that experience. People will have learnt how to do things at home, but how many will have actually invested in a panini machine, for instance? And those big flavours that are hard to create at home… The things people learnt how to do in lockdown, they kind of want to forget about, and do something different.”

Therefore, it is important to innovate and enliven that space by creating big flavours, as well as fulfil needs such as health and vegan food (still an upcoming trend and something people can’t always create well at home).

Delivery had always been a major part of his business, but was now here to stay – representing 90% of his trade – revealed Marc Faulkner, and if anything it was growing in the wake of a footfall fall off in the actual shops (delivery more than making up for lost shop revenue), as well as a bigger spend if purchases were being made for more than one person and across the day parts. They were also partnered with some of the big names such as Just Eat, but he had seen smaller operators offer their own delivery too, to keep the ‘money local’.

STAFF SHORTAGES

Finding the staff to expedite delivery was becoming ever more challenging, suggested Jim Winship, who asked the panellists how bad did they think things might get going forward, also given the fact that the food industry was short of half a million people from growers to shop-workers.

In the medium term, it had crippled them, Marc Faulkner admitted, and making up the shortfall had been a problem; there was nobody else they could bring in, and agencies had had no staff. They couldn’t bring in staff from Europe, had some still isolating, some with childcare issues, but he hoped these would all resolve, but in the mean-time it was a problem.

What could be done? It was an industry-wide problem, and causing difficulties, Greggs’ Amy James agreed, but there was no magic that could be done; it was an issue the industry would have to face together, and Greggs would aim to be an attractive, friendly place for employees to be and have a career. They wanted to open another 100 shops this year, and have vacancies for 500 people.

In terms of customer satisfaction when it came to deliveries, there was already a difference between those in the retail, grocery delivery setting with Deliveroo and Uber Eats faring less well in the customer ratings compared to the mainstream supermarket names, Nick Blake reported, so more needed doing. Jim Winship went on to recognise the importance of this in terms of customer service, such as in queuing situations where efficient staffing was essential. This could be mitigated by seeking more technologybased advances, suggested Amy James, freeing up labour in other ways (pay on screens, for example).

A frustrating aspect had been that during lockdown, a number of people who’d never ordered online before had been “driven into trial” said Amy James, and they hadn’t always met expectations due to the multi-product challenges involved, so they could have lost a few people when they were really forced to trial it. So now, getting the ‘re-trial’ is important, but things are still tough, she explained, so closer attention to getting things at the right temperature to customers was required.

ALLERGEN LABELLING

Additionally, there were now allergen labelling challenges to take on board, added Jim Winship, drawing attention to how bigger operators were better resourced to cope. However, training

on occasion was still necessary, acknowledged Amy James, it being a particular consumer requirement and need to see good labelling.

Likewise, for smaller operators such as Marc Faulkner, the pressure to label was even greater, given the fact that that customers seek purchase in a short window of time. Some independent sandwich makers had told Jim Winship they could well stop making prepacked sandwiches due to the labelling requirements, as was currently the case at his business, said Marc Faulkner, who was waiting to have more staff and a chance to address allergy labelling properly before off ering a prepackaged product again, and focusing on a freshly-made, bespoke product backed by face to face interaction with the customer.

RISING COSTS AND ADDITIONAL PRESSURES

Smaller operators in particular were now dealing with a backlog of rents and rates coming back on again, without the volume of trade returning, as well as prices rises generally, although the government has been lobbied to do something about rates and keeping VAT down, said Jim Winship, who added that it didn’t take a lot with cost increases such as these to make a small business unviable.

This would be a massive problem, agreed Marc Faulkner, who also pointed out that new rates valuations would be seven years old and based on an out of date property valuation when they came along (footfall and commercial activity having been signifi cantly depressed in recent times).

Other cost rises to take into consideration, agreed the panel, included taxes on packaging and Brexitrelated costs, the impact of ingredient shortages, as well as driver shortages, and rising energy costs, all potentially leading to signifi cant infl ation going forward, said Jim Winship, with Nick Blake echoing the sense that there was now a “perfect storm” of factors set to aff ect the industry for some time to come.

Customers were prepared to pay more, it was suggested, and large companies such as Greggs could mitigate this to a certain extent, but there would be a limit and a certain amount of balancing of available ingredients, driver availability etc. going on for some time to come (for example, Marc Faulkner identifi ed energy prices being of particular concern; poised to become a major overhead as opposed to something that had been far more manageable in recent years).

Greatest challenges? Many, but a greater understanding of the needs of the consumer because of Covid (delivery, switch to contactless) was now required, said Nick Blake, as their behaviours and consumer missions had changed so much and they needed to be met proactively. There were also opportunities, such as meeting the health trend via plant-based eating. At the same time, threats to be faced from major disruptors such as Amazon who are increasingly involved in grocery and perhaps food to go. Gen Z is also going to be the biggest consumer group making an impact in the next three years and needs to be addressed, he added (such as what types of sandwiches will appeal to them in the future).

Amy James agreed, saying there were some novel food solutions ideas with appeal to the changing nature of consumer demands - a desire to eat better, healthily and easily, and reduced meat eating - but that the ingredients were not yet all in place to deliver them from the concept stage, even though Covid had certainly given consumers time to think “where is this world going?”

A BUZZING RETURN FOR CASUAL DINING, COMMERCIAL KITCHEN & LUNCH!

The hospitality and foodservice industry experienced an injection of inspiration, togetherness, and a newfound business confi dence at the return editions of Casual Dining, lunch! and Commercial Kitchen over 23-24 September 2021 at ExCeL London.

Food and drink industry leaders, trailblazers, and senior decision makers came in their thousands across the two days, with a strong and positive appetite for face to face business. lunch! welcomed 5561 visitors, Casual Dining welcomed 4707 visitors, and Commercial Kitchen saw a huge increase, welcoming 4295 visitors at its debut London show.

Visitors who attended included senior decision makers and professionals from the Alchemist, BaxterStorey, Bill’s Restaurants, Burger King, Caff è Nero, Center Parcs, Coff ee Republic, Compass Group, Co-op, Crussh, Dishoom, Five Guys, Greggs, Heathrow, Hilton Group, Honest Burgers, KFC, Las Iguanas & Turtle Bay Restaurants, Legoland, Leon, Merlin Entertainments, New World Trading Company, Nando’s, NHS, PizzaExpress, Pret A Manger, the Restaurant Group, Sainsburys, Tesco, Waitrose, WH Smith, and many more. The positive buzz across the show-fl oor certainly didn’t go unnoticed as exhibitor testimonials echoed the “quality” of contacts they met and “genuine enquiries” they made – concluding that the co-located ‘supershow’ was the “best show yet!”

Chris Brazier, group event director, said: “We’re so delighted to see that the industry has returned to face to face trade events in no uncertain terms. The brilliant exhibitors were back, the buyers were back and the buzz was back at our biggest show yet. We won›t rest on our laurels and have already started preparing for an even better lunch!, Casual Dining and Commercial Kitchen for 14 and 15 September 2022. A huge thank you to all our exhibitors, visitors, speakers, media and association partners for their help and support in getting these much-needed shows open again.”

AWARD WINNING PREMIUM AUTOMATED RETAIL

Introducing UCC TO GO® Premium Automated Retail. Your 24-hour barista; freshly ground coffee, fresh milk, YOUR BRAND.

‘Elevated convenience’ in coffee is growing and competition is intensifying* . UCC TO GO® is a future proofed solution to truly own your coffee offer and deliver it in the modern, convenient and hygienic way that customers want.

• Developed by a top 5 global coffee company • Personalised barista quality coffee • Fresh milk, freshly ground beans and a 2nd bean option (decaf) • Hygienic touchless operation via mobile phone without the need to download an app • Instant marketing opportunities available via onscreen advertising • Thanks to telemetry enabled software, UCC TO GO® allows you to review stock, verify cleaning and maintenance, as well as the possibility to update the drinks menu or create promotions from a central location without the need for face-to-face interactions with your estate • Industry leading service and support • Commercially flexible options to suit different operator needs • As well as white-labelling to your brand, UCC TO GO® offers branded options, including top high street café names by enquiry

*MINTEL 2019 Video screen content; machine outer and light colour all customisable to your needs