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The UK’s food to go landscape in 2022 – insight from Lumina.
The UK’s food to go landscape in 2022
In her presentation at the recent Sandwich Designer of the Year competition held at the Royal Lancaster London Hotel, Lumina Intelligence’s Katherine Prowse provided some insight into the current market that reflected the recessionary impact now being experienced as well as indicating where future opportunities might lie.
CURRENT STATE OF THE FOOD TO GO MARKET
In considering the current state of the food to go (FTG) market, consumer confidence had fallen to a near historic low, with CPI (consumer price inflation) expected to average 7% in 2022, Katherine Prowse reported.
By 2025, the UK’s FTG market is set to value £23 billion, having experienced significant slowdowns in 2020 and 2021, but with steady growth anticipated to start kicking in this year.
In referencing the factors affecting FTG, travel (such as National Rail, TFL Tube and car use) had taken a dip during successive lockdowns, but was starting to pick up to pre-pandemic levels.
A comparison of meal deal prices of some of the top FTG brands (Q1 2020 versus Q1 2022) revealed significant price increases at Greggs (29%), Sainsbury’s (17%) and Tesco (17%), whereas M&S, Wild Bean Café, Deli2Go, WHSmith, Boots and Co-op had remained on an even keel.
Of the top FTG channels in 2022 to 2025, sandwich and bakery is predicted to be the most valuable (£354 million out of a total £1.6 billion market), with the travel channel in second place at £256 million.
In the 12 weeks ending 30/1/22, sandwiches ranked as the fourth most consumed item on the go, with Lumina finding that sandwich consumers are likely to be older, male and ABC1.
HOW HAS NPD (NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT) BEEN AFFECTED?
Almost half of new products are now salads, sandwiches or wraps, with premium products leading food in NPD. In particular, vegan and healthy trends dominate new products, with a significant increase in the number of such new products in Q1 2022.
Additionally, almost a fifth of new products are low calorie or gluten free, and half of beverage NPD is now hot drinks and sparkling waters, the researchers found. Again, beverage NPD is premium led, they found, with 58% of the launch of new drinks in Q1 having price point of £4 plus.
Sandwiches have an increasing share of mains across channels (mostly in coffee and sandwich shops, but also pubs and bars, restaurants and QSR). At the same time, sandwich price increases have been more modest than average (up 2.3% in coffee and sandwich shops when comparing March 2022 with February, for example), although this could be set to alter in light of supply and inflationary pressures.
Mega trends can be seen in some of the current product descriptions being used – caramelised, smoked, mature, streaky, delicious and seasoned, for example.
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Food to go spend is increasing at lunch on food and drink with average spend per occasion on food at lunch in the FTG sector up 3% to £4.74 during the early part of the year, Lumina had found, with customisation offering choice on smaller menus.
Digital initiatives and partnerships (Costa and M&S, for instance) are driving convenience with FTG occasions dominated by indulgent products (‘treat’ being the second most common consumer mission for food to go, behind ‘being out & about’); the top three food to go items consumed being chips, burger and pastry with almost a fifth of occasions involving chips.
IN SUMMARY
Consumers will restrict spending, but the habitual and low-ticket nature of FTG will shield the market from the pressures faced by other channels, propose Lumina.
The pandemic has resulted in a rise of premium, health (veganism, low calorie, gluten free) and indulgence versus virtue extremes, and key trends to hit are digital loyalty schemes and rewards enhancing value credentials, health versus indulgence NPD, international cuisines and products.
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THE SANDWICH & FOOD TO GO INDUSTRY AWARDS
The Sammies 2022 Award Winners including: Deli Lites
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