MEAT

Uk Outlook

The continued strain on shoppers’ budgets is going to have the biggest impact on behaviours going forward, acknowledge AHDB (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board), with the growth of the UK economy expected to enter an extended period of sluggish growth, and inflationary pressures looking set to continue.

“Beef through retail may benefit from some shoppers moving their out of home spend in-home. However, we predict more shoppers will be lost to cheaper proteins and carcase balance needs to be monitored, as cheaper cuts will be in most demand. Depending on weather patterns, we expect summer to ease some losses as burgers gain beef share. The out of home market, while suffering, may also exacerbate carcase balance issues as we predict value-led quick service retail to gain channel share for dine-out and takeaways/deliveries, benefiting burgers,” say Rebecca Gladman (retail insight manager) and Hannah Clarke (analyst – red meat) at AHDB in their February 2023 Beef Market Outlook assessment.

“For this reason, beef volumes via retail are predicted to decline further during 2023. Levels in 2022 have tracked below 2019 every month except December, and we expect this trend to continue during this year. Positively, as we expect Christmas 2023 to look very much like Christmas 2022, roasting joints may benefit from a small boost at this time. Out of home, we predict beef will have the strongest recovery of the red meats. However, we believe eating out will still not return to 2019 levels, but takeaways and deliveries will remain bigger than pre-pandemic.”

The researchers go on to say that the beef outlook might be mitigated if the industry:

● Encourage tasty and versatile beef dishes which play on value for money. Inspire batch cooking and filling meals, coupled with retail promotional support. This will benefit cheaper cuts.

● Capture meal occasions lost from out of home by inspiring treaty dinners such as fake aways or restaurant quality dine-in recipes. This will benefit more expensive cuts.

● Publicise for special occasions and events when consumers will want to treat themselves. BBQ inspiration is key during the summer months.

● Encourage consumers to continue to eat out of home. Opportunities in the eating out market include value for money, personalisation, indulgence, quality cues and pushing reputational factors such as health, sustainability and backing British. Takeaway/ delivery is also an important trend for beef to capitalise on.

● Encourage shoppers in-store and online by improving the experience of the meat aisle.

● Addresses health concerns by communicating the health benefits of beef, such as B12 and iron.

● In the longer term, look to maintain and build consumer trust, demonstrating where farming values (animal welfare, environmental stewardship and expertise) are shared with consumers.

MEAT-FREE DECLINE?

Volume sales for meat-free (meat-free definition defined by AHDB; includes meat alternatives and selected vegetarian/vegan ranges. Excludes pizzas) products have declined this Veganuary, with initial data for the first three weeks of January showing a fall in shoppers in the meat-free category they report.

“More than a million fewer households bought meat-free products this January compared to last year with only 13.7% of households buying one (AHDB/Kantar, 3 w/e 22 January 2023). This compares to 96.4% of households buying meat, fish or poultry (MFP) in the first three weeks of the year,” reveals Grace Randall (retail insight manager at AHDB)

“Research from IGD suggests 7% of shoppers started taking part in Veganuary at the start of January. However, this uplift appears to have been short lived, with seven out of 10 failing to make it past the two-week mark. Of those who stopped, 40% said it was due to alternatives being too expensive, while a further 40% claimed they couldn’t find food or drink they enjoyed. Decreased interest has meant that in the Veganuary period, there was a decrease in alternatives volume sales, both in meat and dairy.

“This shows despite new product development and heavy promotions from retailers, the taste and price of meat-free products are still the major barriers for shoppers.

“Meat-free remains a small part of the market, maintaining the 2% volume share it has seen over the last four years. This decline in shoppers means overall value and volume for meat-free has declined with volumes down 12.9% and value down 6.3% compared to MFP, which declined by 3.2% in volume but saw value growth of 8.3% due to price increases.

“Despite declines, Veganuary provided a boost for meat-free products with a sales uplift of 36% in the last three weeks versus the average three weeks in 2022 (excluding Veganuary and Christmas).”