THE MONTRÉAL OF TOMORROW IS EMERGING TODAY

The greying of Greater Montréal is forecast to continue well into the next decade. The importance of the 60+ age cohort in absolute terms will continue to overshadow younger age cohorts for years to come. Already in 2021, roughly 1 in 4, or 24%, of Montrealers were aged 60 and over. By 2030, their share is forecast to grow to 26%. The 15- to 29-year-old cohort is also forecast to see faster growth in the coming years, expanding its share of the region’s total population by around half a percentage point by 2030. The increase in this younger age cohort is due to the coming of age of children whose parents are Generation Xers or Millennials.

Other age cohorts are forecast to grow at slower rates, leading to a decline in their importance relative to Montréal’s overall metropolitan population, which is forecast to grow to 4.6 million people by 2030, up from roughly 4.4 million people today. In fact, Oxford Economics forecasts that the population levels of the 30- to 44-year-old and 0- to 14-year-old cohorts are likely to remain constant through most of this decade. The 45- to 59- year-old cohort is forecast to increase slightly faster, as Millennials start to enter later middle-age.

These changes offer glimpses into potential real estate demand dynamics. The most impressive change is the rapid growth of the 60+ age cohort. In 2000, this was the smallest cohort, but by 2016 had grown to be the largest. By 2030, the size of the cohort will likely more than double to 1.2 million people compared to 2000 levels, or an increase of 150,000 persons relative to 2021 levels. This change should continue to support various seniors housing options for years to come, such as retirement communities and skilled nursing facilities.

Nearly 1 In 4 Montrealers Is Over 60 Years Old

Still, most seniors will likely continue to age in place, health permitting. This means that much of the existing owned residential housing stock is unlikely going to become available to ease the region’s housing crunch. Millennials and Generation Z will likely see their lodging demand met by vertical living - condos or apartments. However, some may search further afield for single family options in ex-urban and rural areas, a trend that has picked up pace as remote working options have opened more living possibilities for certain professionals.

The growth in the 15- to 29-year-old cohort should provide an additional demand vector for the rental apartment sector, especially near local universities and CEGEPs. Student housing fundamentals are likely to be robust, as higher demand for apartments from younger Montrealers means it will be harder to find affordable lodging for foreign or out-of-town students studying at one of the region’s many higher learning institutions.

Other real estate sectors are likely to also be affected by these demographic shifts.

In the future, office owners and occupiers will need to redesign their space to cater to the needs and support work habits of digital native generations, Millennials and Generation Z. Already, real estate professionals are exploring how Greater Montréal office space can take a page from hospitality real estate and offer services and amenities that make being at the office worth the commute. Related to this is ensuring that the area around offices remains a magnet for locals. This means ensuring that museums, theatres, restaurants, and cafés remain alluring and serve as magnets for Montrealers. In this way, coming to the downtown core for work could be viewed as part of an outing, where the office worker may also aim to take in a show in the evening or go out with friends or colleagues to a restaurant.

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150,000 MORE MONTREALERS AGED 60+ IN 2030

Greater Montréal’s retail environment is evolving in line with its residential offerings. Numerous projects are being built or soon will be delivered that offer new or re-positioned retail space alongside new residential units. In this way, retail demand is supported in part by residents. Many of these new units are specifically built to cater to a Montréal age cohort. For example, in Espace Montmorency, Yimby apartments are designed for young urban professionals; Hoop for families; and Waltz for older adults. At Solar Uniquartier, another mixed-use development, residents can dine at Les Enfants Terribles or shop at Quartier Dix30 thanks to a connecting pedestrian walkway across Autoroute 10.

As Greater Montréal’s population continues to age, demand for health-related goods and services is likely to grow. Thus, a potential occupier of both office and retail space are tenants in the healthcare sector, a trend that is already underway in some of the region’s existing malls. Medical offices, health clinics, and wellness centres all are likely to see increased demand as Montrealers aim to improve their quality of life and extend their lifespan. Many of these health-related tenants will also be able to cater to demand from other age cohorts as well.

Like many cities in advanced economies, Greater Montréal is set to become an older metropolis, and the region’s multi-residential sector is transforming to meet this demand. Other sectors are also changing to serve the needs of newer generations, most noticeably retail and office. The Montréal of tomorrow is already starting to emerge today.

Paul Lewis was until recently a professor in the Faculty of Planning at the University of Montréal. From 2014 to 2018, he served as its Dean, and from 2018 to 2020, he served as Associate Vice-Rector for Alumni Relations. He has been doing urban photography for the past few years as an extension of his years of teaching urban planning. His photography can be seen at paullewis.photos.