Real News W I N T E R
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HINDSIGHT
2020
The 2020 real estate market was a continuation of the 2019 real estate market until Covid-19 when real estate was completely shut down for 4 days until the Washington Association of Realtors convinced Governor Inslee that real estate is essential. Homebuyers and sellers had legally binding contracts with no way to fulfill their legal obligations. The industry was gradually opened with restrictions to protect home buyers, sellers, agents, and transactions resumed at a slow pace. The pace escalated when the riots started, gained speed when companies announced extended to permanent work-athome options, and gained fever as the realization of months of the Covid-19 lifestyle was inevitable. The exodus out of city living caused a huge migration from the Seattle area to Skagit County. Fires, taxes, crime, and COVID-19 accelerated the California migration, and the real estate market went from low inventory to almost none.
ANNUAL NUMBER OF SALES
LAST HALF OF THE YEAR NUMBER OF SALES
2020
2019
CHANGE
2020
2019
CHANGE
456
466
98%
278
237
117%
39
39
100%
26
22
118%
BURLINGTON
242
221
110%
133
127
105%
LA CONNER
105
86
122%
60
50
120%
MOUNT VERNON
826
831
99%
500
441
113%
SEDRO WOOLLEY
384
329
117%
238
185
129%
2186
2092
104%
1321
1133
117%
ANACORTES BOW / SAMISH ISLAND
SKAGIT
Sales in 2020 for Skagit County were 2186 vs. 2092 in 2019, a 4% increase, but this does not reflect the impact of COVID-19. The sales for the first half of the year were down 8.9%, but the COVID-19 effect led to an increase of 16.6% for the second half of 2020 compared to the prior year. The increase would have much higher had there been more inventory available. Inside, you will find information about what buyers are looking for and what you can expect for our area's real estate market in 2021.
The reasons Skagit County sales were so strong in 2020 is of course the pandemic and the exodus from cities. 1) Many people no longer need to live close to work. 2) The closing of restaurants, theaters, and other city attractions reduced the benefits of living in the city. 3) The high cost of housing, heavy taxation, an increase in crime, and civil unrest continue to cause exodus out of urban areas.
1
2020 PREDICTIONS HOW
DID
WE
DO?
1. INTEREST RATES Rates are expected to stay low, around 4%. - Yes, we were right. Interest rates did stay low in 2020 and even dipped as low as 2.61%!!
6. RENTALS There is a shortage of homes, condos, and apartments to rent, forcing rent prices up. Yes, the migration from the city has put even more pressure Skagit housing.
2. MILLENIALS The thirty-somethings are moving out of their parent's basement and buying their first home. They are skipping the “starter home” and are purchasing higher-end homes. - Yes, many of them purchased their first home, and in our area, Amazon "RSU" allowed many 30somethings to purchase million dollar plus homes.
7. BABY BOOMERS Like to Age in Place, keeping those homes off the market. Yes, they want to age in place, but since they were more vulnerable to COVID, they kept their homes off the market.
3. ECONOMY Tech companies have thousands of high paying job openings. The population explosion in King County impacts Western Washington as home buyers look for more affordable housing in neighboring counties. - Yes, and it happened to a greater scale because of COVID 4. POPULATION There is a migration away from areas of life-threatening natural disasters—fire, flood, tornadoes, and hurricanes. - Yes, and COVID was added to the life-threatening disaster list. 5. ACCESSIBILITY The addition of commercial airline flights from both Bellingham and Paine Field opens the door for more workforce to live in our area. - Yes, more people are moving to our area, because they can work remotely.
8. NEW CONSTRUCTION The high cost of land, materials, and labor cause builders to be very cautious about the number of spec homes they want to build in one location. - Yes, imports are restricted, and labor costs due to COVID pushing prices up. 9. PRICES Although home prices are high relatively speaking, they are expected to rise. - Yes, increased demand caused prices to skyrocket. All of our predictions were correct! They were, however, enhanced tremendously by COVID-19. If you are thinking of moving, 2021 will be another excellent year for sellers as inventory continues to be at an all-time low in all of Skagit County. If you are unsure where to begin, contact us today, and let's chat about your options. We are always happy to help!
2
By Jean Groesbeck
The 2021 real estate market is forecasted to be a strong market nationally fueled by low-interest rates, an improved economy based on the presumed success of the vaccine against COVID-19 and its mutations, and more Millennials and Generation Z entering the home buying market. Here are my forecasts for the local 2021 real estate market assuming the Corona Virus becomes less of an issue in our daily lives in the second half of 2021: INVENTORY: We will begin the year with a shortage of inventory, but the inventory will begin to grow as sellers, especially Baby Boomers, feel safer putting their homes on the market. There is always a bump in inventory levels in spring when sellers think it is the best time to sell, not realizing that the best time to sell when the inventory is low and demand is high, which would be now! Spring will still be a sellers’ market, but buyers will have more choices in the late Spring and Summer. There will be more transactions in 2021 than in 2020. The median price will be higher partially due to appreciation and partially because there will be an increase in higher-end inventory made available by Baby Boomers sellers. PRICES: The ability to work from home, the high cost of living, high taxes, and the increase in crime have lowered city-living demand, allowing migration to Skagit County. Prices soared in 2020 and will continue to grow in 2021 but at a more modest pace. Amazon's move from Seattle to Bellevue and the dozens of businesses that will follow will also reduce the housing demand in Seattle. Some Seattleites concerned about dropping home values are moving to our area. Affordability will continue to be an issue for many homebuyers, and more affordable markets are likely to see a higher percentage of appreciation. Markets with a higher median price, such as Anacortes, could lose some buyers to less expensive markets like Burlington, Sequim or Port Townsend. ECONOMY: We have yet to experience the full economic impact of COVID-19. People have lost businesses, lost their jobs; many tenants cannot pay rent while landlords are on the hook for mortgage payments. Stimulus packages are delaying the full impact, and the economic results of Covid-19 will continue to devastate some businesses and individuals. The economy of the State of Washington will perform better than the rest of the country because of the high paying tech jobs that allow people to work from home, homeowners have more equity in their homes, stocks of local companies are doing well, and some local companies such as Amazon have benefitted from the Virus. Business-friendly counties and Municipalities with affordable housing and good labor will be the sweet spot for new business, which is always the case. TAXES: States with high taxes such as California and New York and losing population while states with low taxes are gaining population. Since Washington does not have a state income tax, it will continue to attract people. Areas that are high tax, such as Seattle, will lose population to other areas within the state. Most California buyers moving to our area cite taxes as one of the primary reasons. SUMMARY: Washington will continue to experience an increase in population and a high demand for housing. The housing market in Skagit County will grow, leading to eventual higher densities within the city limits of towns in Skagit County. 3
EMERGING
Home Trends
The pandemic caused many unforeseen changes in housing demands: The trends that will continue in 2021 include: A desire for more affordable housing which is achievable in the suburbs and rural areas Larger level yards for outdoor living and entertaining
Floor plans that will accommodate work from home lifestyles long-term. The hope is that schools are back in session by the beginning of the 2021 school year in September. Here are some of the emerging trends we can expect to see throughout 2021: Cloffices: for those that don't have space at home for a separate office, converting closets into offices is the way to go. An easy DIY weekend project can provide three sides "closed-off rooms" like the old fashioned study carrels. Space Separation: people are looking for ways to partition spaces to provide privacy for working or studying at home. Sliding walls, pocket doors, bifold doors, and screens provide the flexibility of an open floor plan that can be partitioned. Multigenerational Living: the inability to easily travel to visit family has resulted in a shift from 11% multigenerational living pre-COVID to 15% post-COVID, according to the National Association of Realtors. Backyards: Backyards have never been more important since it is where most of us spend much of our time. People want a large level yard that can support play equipment, sports court, a full area with kitchen, roof, source of heat, retracting walls, and/or windscreens. COVID-19 has most likely forever changed our habits forcing us to need/want more flex spaces at home to be able to "enjoy" staying at home. We all hope to return to a somewhat normal daily routine by the end of 2021.
4
Pantone
C CO OL LO OR R (( S S )) O OF F T TH HE E Y YE EA AR R
Taby Perron Happy New Year! 2020 was definitely a rollercoaster year, full of ups and downs, but I am hopeful that 2021 will be a better year for everyone. Like every year, I would like to share with you the Pantone color (in this case colors) of the year. For 2021: Ultimate Gray and Illuminating (a shade of yellow) are the chosen ones, selecting two colors for only the second time in 22 years! (last time was in 2016). "It's a combination that speaks to the resilience, the optimism and hope and positivity that we need, as we reset, renew, reimagine and reinvent," said Laurie Pressman, vice president of the Pantone Color Institute. I have to say it is a perfect combination of cheerful and neutral. Gray has been a trending interior paint color on and off for some time now. In fact, both my home and our office have gray walls. I know what you are thinking, gray is the most boring color on the planet...BUT gray is the perfect color for anyone seeking a sophisticated color that is versatile enough for any home decor style. It becomes a serene backdrop for flowers, books, art, fabrics AND it pairs well with any other color -- rooms look amazingly good with gray and a pop of yellow. Many of us were stuck at home for the majority of last year and we were forced to set up temporary offices and school classrooms at home. Any room gets tiresome and boring when inhabited 24/7. New paint offers a quick way to dramatically change any room from one day to the next. Looking to try something new this year? Gray walls provide a great blank canvas to reinvent your home. Bright yellow and gray make great color companions - you get the effect of neutrals with just the right burst of color. Think of it as adding a little sunshine to the inside of your home. Have fun decorating your home and see you next year!
Jingles & Belle's
Co
rn er
Another result of COVID-19 was the high spike in pet adoptions. Many of these new family members only know a lifestyle where their humans are home all day. If your situation of working from home is temporary, start now leaving your pet at home for gradually increasing periods of time to get them used to the new routine that will occur. Help your pet transition by providing interactive toys, nanny cams so you can keep an eye on them. Leave music on or the TV (did you know dogs will actually sit and watch Animal Planet?)and make sure epets get exercise and play time when you are home. 5
SOLD IN
2020
SELLER REPRESENTATION
2020 started off with low inventory which was accentuated by a high demand created by COVID-19, the ability of people to work from home, and the reluctance of people to list their homes for sale. Here are the listings THE GROESBECK GROUP marketed and sold in 2020.
15302 Snee Oosh Rd 4411 Cutter Dr 2208 Dover Dr 3912 Oakes Ave 4310 Sea Otter Ln 14619 Dungeness Ln 224 Lilac Dr 828 Discovery Wy 3115 Biz Point Rd 3713 W 10th 14027 Seaview Wy 5114 Castle Ct 11626 Coronado Dr 5011 Channel View Ln 3320 Beachwood Ln 1913 27th Place 4010 Mitchell Dr 14076 Rosario Rd 6973 State Route 20 14609 Dungeness Ln 4513 Schooner Dr 13735 Rawlins Rd 3625 Green Cliffs Rd 3803 View Ridge 2315 22nd St
La Conner Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Mt Vernon Orcas Island Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Mt Vernon Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes
$2,873,500 $1,475,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,262,000 $1,250,000 $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $1,095,000 $1,055,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $865,000 $825,000 $712,000 $690,000 $670,000 $600,000 $575,000 $575,000 $575,000 $575,000 $568,000 $567,000 $565,000
11117 17th St 1909 SKYLINE Wy #202 3516 W 8th Place 1610 34th St 4315 Eagle View Ct 4302 Kingsway 1713 25th H Ct 3217 M Ave 816 O Ave 1404 Georgia Ave 600 Northshore Dr 4 4206 Kingsway 4303 Kingsway 12119 Jacqueline Dr 813 7th St 4411 San Juan Ave 2105 Creekside Ln 7572 Crescent Ln 1800 Skyline Wy #301 7422 Decatur. 1303 H Ave 909 Skyline Wy #E Mitchell Dr Dugualla View Dr 2403 Antone Wy 36th St
Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Bellingham Anacortes Anacortes Burlington Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Mt Vernon Anacortes Oak Harbor Anacortes Anacortes
$558,500 $550,000 $550,000 $546,000 $530,000 $527,000 $507,500 $506,000 $501,000 $500,000 $500,000 $495,000 $485,000 $485,000 $474,000 $450,011 $435,000 $426,000 $420,000 $410,000 $350,000 $295,000 $275,000 $180,000 $160,000 $150,000
6
SOLD IN
2020
BUYER REPRESENTATION
Although the inventory was really tight in 2020, our full-time buyer's brokers Eileen Hebert and Summer Heaton were able to help their clients secure their new homes even in multiple offer situations. Here are the properties that THE GROESBECK GROUP sold representing the buyers.
1357 Chuckanut Crest Dr 28 Edgewater Dr 4310 Sea Otter Lane 5003 Doon Wy 18095 Fox Hollow Lane 20114 59th St 1516 Latitude Cir 1103 14th St 847 Blackstone Ct 13420 Bridgeview Wy 4914 Heather Dr 2401 Skyline Way #202 4706 Camano Place 4720 Beaver Pond Dr N 4513 Schooner Dr 13735 Rawlins Rd 1907 Cay Way 1909 SKYLINE Wy #202 1202 A Ave 3217 M Ave 1606 Tartan Place 2308 30th St 1610 36th St
Bellingham Camano Island Anacortes Anacortes Bow Snohomish Anacortes Anacortes Bellingham Mt Vernon Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Mt Vernon Anacortes Mt Vernon Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes
Jean Groesbeck 360.941.3734
$1,700,000 $1,268,000 $1,262,000 $1,215,000 $975,000 $903,000 $785,000 $782,000 $780,000 $709,500 $679,200 $625,000 $625,000 $600,000 $575,000 $575,000 $550,000 $550,000 $540,000 $506,000 $490,000 $485,000 $472,500
Taby Perron 956.337.2131
3608 Malland Ct 4204 Bryce Dr 7422 Decatur 1206 32nd St 908 Bannock 294 Alger 809 22nd St 3614 Portage Lane #205 1108 5th St Lot E Hidden Beach Dr 2474 Victoria Wy 2904 17th St NHN Snee-Oosh Rd 1948 Island View Rd 818 Borseth St 3614 Portage Lane #103 420 Umatilla 715 Shelter Bay Dr 756 SE Barrington 2720 Geer Lane 2711 Washington Blvd 2718 Geer Lane
Eileen Hebert 360.770.7090
Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes La Conner Sedro Woolley Anacortes Anacortes Anaocrtes Greenbank Oak Harbor Anacortes La Conner Anacortes Sedro Woolley Anacortes La Conner La Conner Oak Harbor Anacortes Anacortes Anacortes
$449,000 $442,500 $410,000 $400,000 $400,000 $385,000 $370,000 $361,000 $360,000 $350,000 $350,000 $350,000 $350,000 $341,000 $338,000 $334,900 $300,000 $285,000 $262,000 $165,000 $161,000 $155,000
$360,000
Summer Heaton 360.540.7716
7
809 7th St Anacortes, WA 98221 360-899-5027 Info@JeanGroesbeck.com THEGROESBECKGROUP.COM AnacortesRealEstateGuide.com *If you are currently working with a broker, this is not intended to solicit our business.
HAPPY NEW YEAR
A lot changed in 2020 — from eating at restaurants and traveling to just hugging a loved one. New suggested routines for health safety have changed our daily lives. Many of us are now working and learning from home, cooking more, finding a love of the outdoors, and even tackling DIY home makeovers to appreciate our homes even more. Whether you're looking to update your current home, buy a new home, or sell your home, this newsletter will give you all the information you need on the local real estate market as well as tips for home decor and new home trends for 2021. No one knows what life will look like in 2021. But we can be pretty sure things won't be as grim as they were in 2020. We wish you all the best for 2021, and stay safe!
Jean Groesbeck 360.941.3734 Jean@JeanGroesbeck.com
Taby Perron 956.337.2131 Taby@JeanGroesbeck.com
Eileen Hebert 360.770.7090 Eileen.Hebert@Compass.com
Info@JeanGroesbeck.com
$360,000
Summer Heaton 360.540.7716 Summer.Heaton@Compass.com