Will Naftali Bennett Be Israel’s New Leader?

Will Na ali Bennett Be Israel’s New Leader?

BY SHAMMAI SISKIND

Late last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a subtle but strong warning that another round of elections could very well be imminent.

The longtime premier delivered this ominous suggestion at a greeting ceremony for a recent flight landing at Ben Gurion airport from the United Arab Emirates. During his address, the premier stated that a deadlock with his reluctant political partners, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party, could spell the dissolution of the current government.

“If we see a different approach from Blue and White, and they start cooperating instead of acting like a government within a government, we can continue working together,” Netanyahu said referring to negotiations on the governmental budget that have been going nowhere for months.

“If not, I think everyone would understand that it would unfortunately lead to elections,” he warned, adding, “I would prefer that we unite and deal with bringing peace and vaccines and helping the economy.”

Almost on cue, Blue and White officials shot back, accusing the prime minister of being the source of the stagnation.

“It is Netanyahu who is breaking agreements, preventing appointments and not enabling the passing of the budget for two months for political reasons. That is why every poll shows the public blames Netanyahu by a wide margin for the elections that are expected.”

The recent exchange between these staunch political rivals is nothing new. Nor are the forewarnings of political upheaval by both sides exaggerated. They are, in fact, the culmination of a months-long trend, one that could trigger some of the biggest political realignments in Israel’s history.

Since at least the early summer, observers in Israel have been pointing to signs of yet another return to the ballot box for the Jewish state. In March, the third consecutive election was held after rounds in April and the previous September failed to produce a stable Knesset. What emerged was a political truce of sorts between Netanyahu and Gantz involving a rotation of the premiership. From the outset, the deal was labeled by many as too fragile to last. But while the eventual collapse of the Likud-Blue and White alliance may have been predictable, few could have foreseen the way events would actually play out.

An Old Song on Higher Volume

Staunch opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu has been a staple feature in Israeli politics for several years now. Indeed, many have built (or at least significantly advanced) political careers harnessing the anti-Netanyahu sentiment within the Israeli public. This force trend first appeared in stark visibility in 2015 when a coalition of activists launched the movement known as Pashut Mahlifim, roughly translated as “We’re Just Changing.” The entire raison d’etre of this organization was the removal of Netanyahu from the prime minister’s office. Who would replace him? Almost irrelevant.

Pashut Mahlifim, or V15 as it was later branded, was perhaps the first organized manifestation of what has come to be an extremely powerful move-

ment within Israeli politics. It’s not affiliated with a particular party or policy but simply is determined to remove Netanyahu at all costs. While V15 eventually petered out, the anti-Netanyahu bloc did not. In 2016, the campaign, then organized by a loosely knit coalition of activist groups, received new vigor when the Israeli Police began investigating Netanyahu for a series of corruption allegations. At the end of 2019, Netanyahu – by then Israel’s longest serving prime minister – was formally charged for violation of public trust and accepting bribes.

What has been fascinating to behold is that, despite the incredible zeal and commitment of the anti-Netanyahu movement (rallies and protest against the prime minister could draw tens of thousands across the country on almost a weekly basis), the Likud party remained almost unscathed by its efforts. In the past five Knesset elections, going back over eleven years, Netanyahu’s Likud has consistently managed to garner at least 30 Knesset seats – a full quarter of the entire Israeli parliament.

Even with all the efforts to frame Netanyahu as a corrupt and lying elitist, the man never lost a handle on the vast majority of his supporters. Netanyahu accomplished this through his unique ability to project unparalleled competence, espe-

The Yamina leader had established himself as the creative, bold innovator that wanted Israel to “fi ght” the pandemic as opposed to simply “retreat and hide.”

cially on issues of foreign relations and defense. It is this brand of the adept leader par excellence that has kept the prime minister as stable as he has been. But the disruption of 2020 may very well have offset Netanyahu’s winning formula.

By late spring, the prime minister was suffering scathing media coverage on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. After gloating about Israel’s initial success in keeping infection rates low, Netanyahu was forced to take an about-face and initiate nationwide lockdowns, becoming the first world leader to do so for a second time. The broad-spectrum backlash against Netanyahu’s perceived fumbling of the pandemic ball and the public outcry on the economic devastation caused by his policies triggered something very new for the Israeli political scene.

Back from the Dead

It is not that Netanyahu lost his classically stable political support. Instead, he created the enemy with the potential to defeat him.

Naftali Bennett began his political career working for Netanyahu as his chief of staff. With a career that spanned the most elite of the IDF’s special forces and Israel’s hi-tech scene, it is not surprising that Netanyahu found Bennett impressively capable. Eventually, Bennet took his own position of political leadership when he was voted leader of the Jewish Home party in 2012. For six years, Bennet held a series of important ministerial portfolios, and solidified an image of an energetic pragmatist as well as an unabashed right winger on issues of defense and sovereignty. In 2018, Bennett left Jewish Home to form his own party which went through several seemingly disorganized iterations. Bennett’s instability cost him in the April 2019 election when he failed to pass the vote count threshold. But, luckily for Bennett, a new election was soon called for after a government failed to take shape. Bennett formed a conglomerate party with other national Zionist groups and was able to win seven seats in September. In 2019, Bennett was appointed in a deal with Likud as Defense Minister, becoming the first religious MK to ever hold the position.

It was during Bennett’s time at the Defense Ministry that the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in Israel. It was from this post that Bennett began to evolve from being merely an idealist doer to a national leader. From the very outset, Bennett was adamant that the Defense Ministry, being most equipped to deal with national emergencies, should maintain full control of the logistics of managing the COVID crisis. For two months, Bennett reportedly labored nonstop, sleeping in his office and rarely returning to Ra’anana home. According to his own words, Bennett continued work on his corona-related missions even on Shabbat. During this time, Bennett’s Defense Ministry achieved several goals, including the setting up of the so-called “corona hotels” to house quarantining citizens and acquiring new technology and devices to support the health system.

But beyond mundane logistics, Bennett’s main focus was innovation. He was determined to put together a system by which Israel could battle the pandemic effectively while keeping society func-

Bennett during his high-tech days, with his co-founders of Cyota Bennett in the Sayeret Matcal special forces

tioning. He traveled the country speaking with experts from around the country, from roboticists at the Weitzman Center to genetics firms in Haifa.

Bennett would later release a book relating his experiences as Defense Minister and his efforts to address the crisis entitled, How to Beat a Pandemic. In his book, Bennett recounts – and news reports from the time confirm – that by April he had put together a detailed plan for fighting the virus and keeping Israel open. This plan was reportedly rejected by both Netanyahu and Health Ministry officials. Only weeks later, Israel experienced its third consecutive election. In May, it became clear that Bennett’s party, now under the name Yamina, would not be part of the Netanyahu-led government.

But Bennett’s shift to the opposition did not mean an end to his activities. Bennett continued his rounds across the country, widely reported on in Israeli media. He met with hospital heads, spoke to business leaders, and continued to develop strategies to tackle the pandemic. In July, he established the Citizen’s Corona Cabinet along with other prominent experts and former military officials to explore and promote alternative policies. The Yamina leader had established himself as the creative, bold innovator that wanted Israel to “fight” the pandemic as opposed to simply “retreat and hide.” With economic and social woes raging throughout Israel, this position began to become very, very popular.

The Coming Reshu e

The attractiveness of Bennett’s message began to show in the polls. Yamina’s projected seats began to climb. Bennett’s gains were not at the expense of Netanyahu – his support declined only marginally – but of his main rival Blue and White.

The current projections for what another Israeli election would produce are nothing short of astounding. For starters, Bennett’s Yamina has been polling over 20 seats for around the past two months.

This fact needs to be put into perspective: a man who had lost nearly all his political clout and was unable to pass the electoral threshold 18 months ago is now forecasted to control the second largest party in the country. Blue and White, which received only three seats less than Likud in the March election (33), now can expect a mere nine mandates. True, Blue and White’s loss is due mostly to the decoupling from the Yesh Atid party that took with it several Knesset spots (more on that in a moment). But the projected nine seats are more than thirty percent less than the party’s current fourteen.

Beyond the raw numbers, the upheaval over the past six months has created the potential for new alliances the likes of which have pretty much never been seen in Israel. Bennett on his part has made it clear he intends to work from now on in a purely pragmatic fashion, putting ideology on the side in

A man who had lost nearly all his political clout and was unable to pass the electoral threshold 18 months ago is now forecasted to control the second largest party in the country.

order to tackle the pandemic and repair the economic fallout. In Bennett’s words, Yamina is willing to form a coalition with any “Zionist party that wants to focus on the problems at hand.” With this statement, Bennett has essentially expressed his willingness to partner with both secular and left of center parties – which would basically mean Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (19 projected seats) and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beteynu (8 seats). At least one of these leaders has also alluded to his willingness to cooperate with Bennett.

In a recent interview, Yair Lapid told a reporter that he and Bennett “know how to work together.” Of course, even if these three factions were to join forces, it would still not make up the required 61 seats to form a government. At least two additional parties would have to be brought in. Which might those be? Lapid and Gantz may be too at odds after the acrimonious split. Similarly, it is difficult to imagine Lapid sitting in a government with the Haredi parties of Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).

Despite the difficulties forming a Likud-less government would entail, it is important to not underestimate the attractiveness of Bennett’s message. As one columnist in Israel recently put it, “Bennett doesn’t hate.” It is not that Bennett is a super-charismatic leader who can win all the needed adornment and support. It is his super-practical and non-political approach that may very well convince fellow politicians to give him a try. As UTJ head Yaakov Litzman put it, Bennett has become for many the “alternative to Netanyahu.”

The New Face in Washington

In light of a possible revamping of Israel’s political scene, there is one very important question that should at least be considered.

This coming January, Joe Biden will likely be entering the White House as the 46th president of the United States. The Biden administration will almost certainly be a major shift from the years of Donald Trump, the president widely believed to be the most pro-Israel U.S. commander-in-chief in history. Biden has already alluded to his intentions to strengthen ties to the Palestinians and re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran which Trump had left.

Netanyahu, who led Israel during the eight years of Obama’s presidency, has experience dealing with Biden and many of his people. Bennett, on the other hand, has no diplomatic experience to his name. However, Bennett and his likely future allies have already taken the initiative of reach-

Visiting Bnei Brak during the pandemic

Bennett in downtown Jerusalem in August

ing out to the Biden team. Bennett was one of the first lawmakers in Israel to congratulate Biden’s victory. Yair Lapid, who has at least some experience with Biden from the Obama years, has also tweeted regards to Biden, calling him, “my friend the president-elect.” Bennett has stated in a recent interview that he was “convinced Biden is committed to ensuring Israel’s security.”

If, in fact, Bennett finds himself replacing Netanyahu, his solution for dealing with a less friendly administration could be simply circumventing the “big” issues. In an interview with the Makor Rishon newspaper, Bennett stated that, as premier, he would establish a two-year moratorium on “sectoral politics” including establishing Israeli law in the West Bank. Furthermore, his shortlist of primary objectives would include “widening the circle of peace and fruitful relations with Arab states” and “renewing dialogue with the American administration.” The combination of steering clear of the controversial objectives of the Right while pursuing American-brokered diplomacy in the region could win Bennett positive ties with Washington.

Predictions aside, the potential for major political change is without a doubt at-hand in Israel today. The continued viability of the current government will be determined in the coming weeks, if not days. The outcome of the next several months will have substantial impact on Israel, both for its domestic policies and its relations abroad.