JHU POLITIK
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SEPTEMBER 14, 2015
VOLUME XVIII, ISSUE III
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JHU POLITIK EDITORS-IN-CHIEF Christine Server & Juliana Vigorito MANAGING EDITOR Mira Haqqani
HEAD WRITER Evan Harary
ASSISTANT EDITORS Dylan Etzel Preston Ge Shrenik Jain Sathvik Namburar
POLICY DESK EDITOR Arpan Ghosh
CREATIVE DIRECTOR Diana Lee
MARYLAND EDITOR David Hamburger
COPY EDITOR Zachary Schlosberg WEBMASTER Position Open MARKETING & PUBLICITY Chiara Wright
CAMPUS EDITOR Christina Selby
STAFF WRITERS Olga Baranoff Dylan Cowit Rosellen Grant George Gulino Morley Musick Sathvik Namburar Corey Payne
FACULTY ADVISOR Charlotte O’Donnell
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• September 14, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue III
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
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The World of Man is Drowning Sina Fahimi Hanzaei ’19 Freddie Gray Murder Trials Will Stay in Baltimore: A Small Victory on the Path to Justice
Corey Payne ’17
The Refugee Crisis:
A Humanitarian Disaster and Test for U.S. Moral Leadership
Evan Harary ’16
Reframing the Chinese Economic Slowdown George Gulino ’18 Greece, From Then to Now Alex Guzina ’19
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The World of Man is Drowning by Sina Fahimi Hanzaei ’19, Contributing Writer
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llah Akbar. As much as extremists have abused these words, their true meaning lies in their history. Muslims, when faced with oppression in the age of European colonialism, took refuge in their literature. Allah Akbar became a catchphrase around that time to show their discontent with injustice and to express the need for reform. It conveyed to the oppressors that, “though you might be tyrannizing us right now, God is great and I will take refuge to his compassion.” I mention ‘Allah Akbar’ because we’ve been hearing it a lot recently, and not only in Taqsim Square in Istanbul, or in Beirut. It is not yelled out by some extremist about to take yet another innocent life, or by a Fox News anchor labeling yet another innocent as extremist. Today it can be heard on the Greek shores at the edge of Europe, amid cries of infant children and shouts of distressed adults. Alas! Humanity has been washed ashore. Two new fishing boats have arrived full of uncertain futures. Yesterday, hundreds drowned in the Mediterranean Sea; tomorrow, a new Aylan Kurdi will be found lifeless on the shore. Humans ready for slaughter, running from an enemy equipped with AK-47s to the arms of ‘friendly’ nations armed with nationalistic policies. However, before accusing any one entity of guilt, the roots of this problem should be identified. First, we need to define a time frame within which we can approach this issue. Let us consider the second wave of European colonialism in the years prior to the First World War. Perhaps the simplest explanation lies in this period. European and North American powers fabricated artificial states, such as Iraq and Syria, that lacked any sense of national unity and were divided by religious and tribal differences. Their continued influence throughout the 20th century exacerbated the constant instability of the region; a good example of this is the 1953 American-led coup d’état of the first democratically elected government in Iran. Additionally, Western support for militia groups in opposition to Soviet influence gave birth to the first extremist militia groups, like the Mujahedin in Northern Pakistan, which eventually evolved into the Taliban. These European interferences gave birth to a sociopolitically unstable region that could be dragged into a state of war with the slightest disturbance in its political equilibrium. And with each disturbance, millions lost their homes and became asylum seekers.
invaded to bestow the gift of democracy on the good people of the East and rid the region of the fictional WMDs. How noble - unfortunately, democracy does not come out of a gun barrel. It can only be achieved through gradual and peaceful reform. Therefore, all that Americans created in Iraq was chaos. If this is not neo-colonialism, it is beyond me to find a better term. Now the very people who were named “collateral damages” by the U.S. propaganda machine are fleeing from the butchers who gained power in these unnecessary wars. Wars that fueled the global military complex machinery have now given birth to millions of refugees. It is true that Germany and the U.K. have granted refugee status to thousands of people. It is undeniable that Austria opened its borders to refugees last week and let them walk in. It is true that North American governments are pledging their support to resolve this issue. However, I cannot help but think that if it weren’t for these countries and their ‘strong arm policies,’ these refugees would not have been refugees in the first place. To think that these people flee their home countries in order to attain higher standards of living in the West, and that they are perfectly safe in their motherlands, is nothing but a desperate attempt to whitewash the conscience of the West. These people are real asylum seekers, running from real violence and in need of serious help. Europe must give back to these people what it has taken from them. ■
If we consider a later period, we can talk about the ever-ironic ‘humanitarian interventions’ of NATO countries in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya; the list goes on. ISIS was formed in the aftermath of the American-led invasion of Iraq. Americans
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• September 14, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue III
Freddie Gray Murder Trials Will Stay in Baltimore: A Small Victory on the Path to Justice by Corey Payne ’17, Staff Writer
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ast week, the City of Baltimore reached a settlement with the family of Freddie Gray. The civil lawsuit has resulted in local government agreeing to pay $6.4 million in order to avoid lengthy litigation over the case that likely would have cost the city even more money. One day later, Judge Barry Williams of the Baltimore City Circuit Court ruled that the trials of the six officers indicted for Gray’s murder would remain in Baltimore. These two events are small victories on the path toward justice for Freddie Gray, who died in police custody in April during a ‘rough ride’ after being arrested for carrying a pocketknife. The City’s police union and its allies criticized the settlement as a premature admission of guilt before the trials have even begun, but as Mayor Rawlings-Blake said in a statement, the burden of proof is far lower for a civil case than it is for a criminal one. The City might have been required to pay a large sum to the family of Freddie Gray after losing a civil case while the six indicted officers could have been acquitted in a criminal one. The heart of the criticism, however, lies in the timing of the settlement’s announcement. The City approved the payout just one day before the trial judge would rule on whether to move the trials to another Maryland county. The officers’ defense team had already argued that it would be impossible for the courts to find unbiased jurors in the City because of massive media coverage and the potential personal effects of the decision. They contended that the fear of another uprising could cause jurors to back a guilty verdict, even if the evidence doesn’t support one, just to avoid the social chaos and destruction of property that would likely follow an acquittal. Because of the settlement, opponents were able to add another argument: that the media coverage of the payout would bias the residents of Baltimore into believing that the City admitted wrongdoing and that the officers were therefore guilty. This view, that unbiased jurors do not exist in the City of Baltimore, is as insulting as it is foolish. Moreover, the argument that the media coverage of the case would bias the residents of Baltimore—yet leave other Maryland citizens untainted— shows a stunning lack of understanding of the vast national and international public interest in this case.
are too incompetent to understand the legal charge they will be given—to be fair and impartial. Furthermore, it is ludicrous to assert that members of the surrounding counties would be any less biased a population than residents of Baltimore City. The announcement to indict the six officers was carried live on CNN International, and the uprising was covered for a week straight on national and international news. People across the country are theoretically no less predisposed to hand down a guilty verdict than the people right here in Baltimore. Additionally, the likelihood of a jury handing down a guilty verdict out of fear of another uprising is no more likely than that of a jury handing down an acquittal out of fear of apathy from the police. This summer, violent crime and murder in the City have skyrocketed, and former Commissioner Anthony Batts has said the police have “taken a knee” because of the intense scrutiny. Some see police officers as refusing to do their jobs out of petty malice towards City residents who want their police to be held to a high standard of conduct. All of these arguments lack a foundation in reality. Thankfully, Judge Williams, in a welcome display of prudence, saw the defense’s motion for what it was: a legal maneuver designed solely to tilt the scales against justice and remove the people of Baltimore from the process. ■
In order to qualify as an unbiased juror, a citizen is not required to have never before heard of the case in the media; rather, they must ensure that they do not have a presupposition about the guilt of the defendants. By saying that all Baltimore residents already believe that the officers are guilty, the defense is essentially suggesting that all 622,104 residents of the City
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The Refugee Crisis: A Humanitarian Disaster and Test for U.S. Moral Leadership
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by Evan Harary ’16, Head Writer
he current refugee crisis is neither temporary nor strictly a European problem. Rather, this latest humanitarian disaster is the world’s responsibility. As long as regional instability reigns – and with ISIS spreading through the Maghreb, the Iraqi and Afghan governments lurching, and protracted civil wars in both Syria and Yemen, it will – we can expect the flow of asylum-seekers to continue undiminished. This instability and the sheer scale of the crisis mean that all capable nations must do what they can. The U.S., uniquely positioned to better the lives of millions, has done next to nothing.
to extremists. However, our screening process for refugees is thorough and only allows the most desperate applicants entry. Furthermore, the vast majority of refugees are victims, not extremists, living in overcrowded conditions with limited access to food, water, and healthcare. Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey are currently under severe strain. The situation in these nations is one of insecurity and limited opportunity—requisites for the birth of violent extremism. Accepting more refugees would alleviate some of the region’s stresses, reducing the future threat of extremism. By closing our borders, we instead ensure that resentment of the U.S. grows.
Thus far the United States has accepted just 1,500 refugees – a negligible percentage of the millions who have been displaced by instability in the Middle East and elsewhere. “The U.S. has historically been a world leader in recognizing the moral obligation to resettle refugees,” International Rescue Committee President David Milliband said, “but in the four years of the Syria crisis, there has been more inertia than leadership.”
Accepting more refugees is not a sustainable solution by itself. We must also take steps to mitigate this crisis closer to the source. Intervention in Syria is tricky, given the broad opposition of the American public and the precariousness of the current situation. We can, however, work to improve life in refugee camps, performing our moral duty as well as discouraging destabilizing and dangerous mass migration to Europe. The Oxford economist Paul Collier, for example, proposed that we “incubate” a Syrian economy abroad by training and employing refugees in an industrial zone located near one of Jordan’s largest camps. This would give refugees the chance to gain income and dignity, as well as a reason to stay put. It would also provide economically burdened host nations with a reserve of skilled labor.
With the exception of a few standouts in Western Europe, no other nation has picked up the slack. Neither Israel nor any of the Gulf states will accept more migrants. In the European Union, the migrant crisis has exposed deep divides among and within member states. Even in Sweden, a nation that has done its part to receive refugees, anti-immigration voices now lead the polls. The EU commission voted down a proposition for refugee quotas in June and seems poised to do so again. The U.S. public, at least, has shown support for policies favoring refugees. A petition for the U.S. to accept 65,000 refugees has garnered over 70,000 signatures since August 31st. Even leading Republican candidate Donald Trump, known for his anti-immigration stance, has discussed intervention on “a humanitarian basis.” The way is relatively clear for pro-refugee policy in the U.S., but our government’s actions still lag behind public opinion.
Overall, the U.S. should be putting as much thought as it does money into the refugee crisis. With our intellectual network at home and clout among host nations, the United States has the brains and brawn to put in place measures that would make life for refugees more tolerable. The current crisis is undeniably complex, but it contains a moral imperative to a degree unseen since World War II. Doing nothing is not an option. It is up to the U.S. now to assume a leadership role or see the situation devolve into further chaos and suffering. ■
The United States leads the world in aid donations, but as millions languish in squalid camp conditions, money is not enough. President Obama can ensure that the U.S. does its part by raising the annual number of refugees from 70,000 to 100,000, as the proposed increase of 10,000 is simply not enough. We should also expedite the years-long review process for refugee applications.
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Some claim accepting more refugees will open our borders
• September 14, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue III
Reframing the Chinese Economic Slowdown by George Gulino ’18, Staff Writer
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arnage in the Chinese securities exchanges began this summer and continues today in the form of immense volatility. Short-term investors fled in droves after rounds of softer-than-expected economic performance statistics were released. Long-term investors followed suit when the Chinese government’s immense stimulus and regulatory efforts to reverse the sell-off raised fears of inefficient, misrepresentative markets. Headline buzz has focused on the potential slide in annual published GDP growth from around 7.5%, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) planned to cap it, to near 4-5%, asserting that the world’s engine of economic growth (and source of easy returns for speculators) for the last few decades is finally succumbing to a weak global economy. Typically, news coverage overlooks an equally responsible but much more consequential phenomena: structural reforms aimed at converting China from an emerging, investmentbased economy into a modern, high-consumption society. This process lowers GDP growth but increases the quality of that growth – providing a standard of living resembling that of the developed world. No nation has ever accomplished this feat with the speed and scale that China intends to, and the only other large nations to accomplish similar transitions have been Western democracies. Other nations allowed the market to fuel this change over longer periods; in contrast, the CCP employs bureaucrats to engineer a faster rendition. The problems they face are taken broadly. Investment spending makes up too high a share of GDP, a portion which must be decreased at least ten percent in relation to consumption spending to comply with economic fundamentals, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The primary policy prescription is to tighten monetary policy, thus decreasing the propensity to save and invest and increasing consumer spending. Manufacturing will suffer more than it already has due to the unavoidable rise of Chinese wages relative to competitors, but the outcome will be a more dynamic, sustainable economy that benefits the average citizen. Chinese service sector jobs pay better, and a revalued yuan along with higher wages will create more widespread increases in standard of living. More R&D spending should be left to private enterprise, and education reform is needed to catch up the knowledge economy. Unfortunately, entrenched interests are resisting and slowing the process. Large stateowned enterprises (SOEs), exert great influence over CCP elites and have become heavily indebted in order to finance the boom; market-based interest rates will squeeze their cash flows
tremendously and further erode their competitiveness. Even so, reform was carrying on at a reasonable rate early in President Jinping’s term. Going forward, it must be emphasized that China cannot expect to stay competitive by building highways to nowhere, more high-rise ghost cities and more factories in a period of lagging global demand. The real danger here is that the CCP leadership blinks in the face of these winds of change. According to Bloomberg, in 2015 alone, government stimulus has amounted to $800 billion in equity buying, currency manipulation, construction bonds and policy bank recapitalization. Hopefully this ominous about-face constitutes temporary damage-control, as in the case of the mismanaged but well-intentioned intervention into margin lending. The short-term harm to so many people’s savings was intolerable in that moment, but for the most part Jinping’s structural reforms have been more measured. In the long term, the CCP must outmaneuver entrenched interests by going directly to the people: enlarge the breadth of the ruling elite to include more than business and professional elites. There is a burgeoning civil society that can provide input as to how to make the transition less painful than it has been over the summer. The developed world will welcome into its ranks a China whose growth rates don’t threaten to wreak havoc on the global order and whose economic liberality can translate into further political liberality. Growth will be more moderate but also more predictable, with less intense downturns. The average citizen will see higher wages for less physically strenuous labor and will be able to expend it on new consumer goods entering the market, more of which can and will be Chinese. There is a brave new China on the cusp of creation, and it needs the CCP and foreign commentators to screw their heads back on. ■
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Greece, From Then to Now by Alex Guzina ’19, Contributing Writer
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his past summer, Greece and rest of the world were in an uncertain situation. There was no agreement on the conditions of a bailout by the IMF and European Central Bank, and default for Greece seemed imminent. Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister of Greece, called a referendum on whether or not the country would accept the conditions of the bailout. The referendum was controversial; it was unknown what would happen if the Greeks answered no, with the politicians and organizations involved playing on sensationalist fears to advance their own agendas. The referendum ballot itself received particular criticism because of its complex legal wording, and because the ‘no’ option was placed above the ‘yes’ option on the printed ballots themselves. Greek voters rejected the conditions of the bailout overwhelmingly, yet nothing fundamentally changed. The country still needed to address their debt situation and did, although much later and with more strings attached than if they had accepted the original deal. While Tsipras won popular support with his promise to curb austerity, it was never a likely outcome; Greece had little to bargain with and it was in the best interest of the IMF as well as the EU to ensure that a bailout agreement was reached. Although Tsipras’ election and rise to power happened quickly, it was not unexpected. Greece’s political climate has become more polarized as the situation became more desperate, and farleft and far-right parties have gained many followers in recent years. One of the most popular extremist parties in Greece was the Golden Dawn, a right-wing group that advocates for Greek nationalism and a revival of ancient customs. Although the group peaked in power several years ago, it remains the fourth most popular party in Greece, though its leader, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, was arrested on charges of heading a criminal group. The most powerful party in the country was and continues to be Syriza, which combines many far-left and center-left elements. Tsipras, elected as Syriza’s candidate, was a communist in his youth and held on to many of those beliefs into his adulthood.
new loans to repay old ones, then take out loans again to repay the loans they had received earlier, compounding the country’s inability to deal with the increasing debts which piled up. Yet many opposed Tsipras, claiming that he had risen to power through fear mongering and espousing unfeasible populist politics. There was little that Tsipras could do to actualize his ideas, even as they inspired many and seemed to bring new life to the Greek political system by harnessing the opinions and sympathies of Greek citizens. Greeks argue that they deserve a certain quality of life, stating that human standards of living are more important than debts and economic responsibility. The European Union and IMF counter that Greece has an unsustainable system of governmental spending, with tax rates too low to support its extensive social programs. The issue has extended across Europe, as many nations in the EU had loan repayment deals more stringent than what was being offered to Greece, despite having less debt, better performing economies, and more demonstrated responsibility. These nations argued that Greece deserved much stricter terms than it received, and that Greeks were lazy and entitled for seeking less austerity and better terms. Additionally, if Greece’s referendum caused the creditors and EU to buckle, many countries might follow Greece and demand better terms than those they had previously received. This further underlined the disunity of the European Union, and brings into question the stability of the organization itself. Still, the stance of the EU remains largely unmovable and despite the maneuvering and protest of Greece, perpetuation of the status quo and the will of the EU remains the most likely outcome. ■
Momentum for Tsipras began to build during the Greek parliamentary elections in January of this year. Seeing few signs of recovery and facing increasingly difficult austerity measures, the country turned to Tsipras, a figurehead and leader of the left-wing party Syriza, to lead them. He promised to stop further austerity measures and bring the old standard of living back to the Greek people, many of whom felt that they deserved greater social services and a more stable economic environment. This appealed to those Greeks who saw the nation’s debt crisis as inherently cyclical - Greece had to take
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