Georgia Tech CEE 6602/CP 6311 December 2, 2016
April Gadsby Nate Hixson Ruoyu Ma Yuqi Ma Jian Pang Image Source: http://www.chrissewell.info/
Outline Background • Problem Statement
Research • Peer Cities
• Model Design
• Case Study
• Analytical Approach
• Variable Fares • Previous • System Studies Overview
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Analysis
• Opportunities
Background Photo: Peachtree Center Station, circa 1980 Source: Atlanta History Center Archives
Problem Statement • Breeze smart card fares laid groundwork for variable fare structures. • Most agencies with the highest farebox recovery use variable fare structures • Our study aims to assess and select a fare structure that: • Increases fare box revenue • Maintains equitable service • Minimizes impact on ridership 4
Background
Research
Analysis
Fare Structure Alternatives
Fixed Fare
Zone Based
Congestion Based
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Background
Distance Based
Special Destination Fees
Research
Analysis
Stakeholders Public Agencies Have invested resources in the system
Individuals Rely on the system to get around Tourists and Visitors
Low-Income Individuals
Disabled and Elderly Citizens
Choice Riders
Private Companies and Other Facilities Customers and employees use the system
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Background
Research
Analysis
MARTA Rail System • 4 lines; 38 stations • Current Fare Structure: • • • •
Flat Fare: $2.50/trip Free transfers Monthly, weekly, daily passes Discounted fares available
• Farebox recovery: 32.3% • Daily Ridership: 432,900 MARTA Guide. martaguide.com 7
Background
Research
Analysis
MARTA Red Line • 9 stations studied
• Variety of land uses and demographics • Urban Core • Urban Residential • Suburban • Airport • Institutional
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Background
Research
Analysis
Research Photo: Civic Center Station, November 1978 Source: Atlanta History Center Archives
Case Study: 6 Peer Cities Comparison Basic information Atlanta
Washington, DC
San Fransisco
Detroit
Seattle
Minneapolis
Name
MARTA
WMATA
MTC
DARTA
Sound Transit
Met Council
Urbanized Area
1,962 sq. miles
1,157 sq. miles
527 sq. miles
1,262 sq. miles
954 sq. miles
894 sq. miles
Urbanized Population
3.5 million (1,780 per sq. mile)
3.9 million (3,400 per sq. mile)
3.2 million (6,130 per sq. mile)
3.9 million (3,090 per sq. mile)
2.7 million (2,840 per sq. mile)
2.4 million (2,670 per sq. mile)
Annual Regional Transit Trips
166 million (47 per person)
436 million (111 per person)
452 million (140 per person)
54 million (14 per person)
140 million (52 per person)
75 million (31 per person)
Cost of Living Index
98.2
140.0
182.4
107.5
122.7
109.3
Source: Aecom Consult
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Background
Research
Analysis
Case Study: 6 Peer Cities Comparison Funding sources Atlanta
Washington, DC
San Fransisco
Detroit
Seattle
Minneapolis
Source: Aecom Consult
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Background
Research
Analysis
Case Study Summary Minneapolis
Washington
Denver
Atlanta
Fare Type
Zone
X
X
Distance
X
X
Congestion
X
X
Flat
X
Base price Farebox recovery Daily Ridership
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Background
$1.75 - 2.25
$1.75 - 2.25
$2.60
$2.50
37%
56%
14%
32%
286,300
727,700
339,300
432,900
Research
Analysis
Prior Research • MARTA completed Phase I of a variable fare study in 2010 • Studied seven relevant fare alternatives Equity
Zone-based
Time-based
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Background
Ridership
32.5% of lowincome riders 50% of nonwhite riders
25% of lowincome riders 40% of nonwhite riders Research
Revenue
-1.39%
0.40%
-0.75%
No change
Analysis
Analysis Photo: Georgia State Station, May 1979 Source: Atlanta History Center Archives
Analytical Approach • Zone-based analysis: • Based on Origin-Destination matrix of trips in March 2016 provided by MARTA. • Elasticity model based on TCRP Report 95: • -0.25 for longer trips (more than 3 miles) • -0.55 for shorter trips (less than 3 miles)
• Time-based analysis: • Based on Breeze Card boarding/alighting data for July 2016. • Elasticity model based on TCRP Report 95: • -0.20 for peak boardings • -0.45 for off-peak boardings
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Background
Research
Analysis
Model Design Zone-based approach Ridership Numbers …
Airport
North Springs
North Springs
16,816
0
0
17,637
…
O-D Pairs
Airport
New Fare (Based on Zone Crossings) Airport
North Springs
North Springs
$3.55
N/A
N/A
$3.55
…
x
…
O-D Pairs
Airport
Elasticities Airport
North Springs
- 0.25
N/A
N/A
- 0.25
Airport 19
Background
North Springs
…
x
…
O-D Pairs
Research
Adjusted ridership matrix Analysis
Model Design Time-based approach Peak and offpeak ridership x
Proposed change in fare
Estimated change in ridership
Estimated revenue
x
Peak and offpeak elasticities 20
Background
Research
Analysis
Other Factors Implementation Costs • MARTA variable-based fare study in 2010 estimated implementation costs associated with variable fare structures. • Zone-based: $14,674,000 • Time-based: $6,218,000 • Airport fee: $3,108,000
• Costs will need to be recovered in some way; difficult to do this with a revenue-neutral approach.
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Background
Research
Analysis
Scenario Setting
Minimum fare: $1.75
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Background
Maximum fare: $2.75
Research
Airport Surcharge: $5.00
Analysis
Results Zone-based • Average fare of study area was $2.45. • $1.75 base fare; • $0.45 per zone boundary crossing.
• Assuming flat ridership, fare collections increased 0.1% • Using elasticity model: • +1.3% in ridership • +0.1% in revenue
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Background
Research
Analysis
Results Congestion-based • Flat-fare alternative: • • • •
$2.25 off-peak fare; $2.75 peak fare -2% in peak ridership; +4.5% in off-peak ridership +0.3% in revenue
• Increased–fare alternative: • $2.50 off-peak and $2.75 peak • -2% in peak ridership • +3.3% in revenue.
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Background
Research
Analysis
Results Airport Surcharge • Difficult to understand effects of airport surcharges. • Case Study: Chicago Transit Authority • Charges $5.00 surcharge fee for departures from Airport. Users of certain passes are exempt. Airport employees are exempt. • Resulted in a 1% decrease in ridership (departures from O’Hare Station) for the year it was implemented; ridership increased by 1% the following year.
• In the case study, elasticity was extremely low. • Potential to generate $1.1mm in monthly revenue for MARTA. 25
Background
Research
Analysis
Equity Impacts Case Study: Oakland City • Primarily residential uses within ½ mile of the station • Median income within ½ mile: $32,459 • Impacts on equity will depend on the ultimate price levels chosen
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Background
Research
Analysis
Equity Impacts Zone-based • For trips originating at Oakland City: • 29% would experience fare increases
Zones Crossed
New Fare
Percent of Trips
0
$1.75
15%
1
$2.20
57%
2
$2.65
24%
3
$3.10
5%
• 71% would experience fare decreases
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Background
Research
Analysis
Equity Impacts Congestion-based
• 40% of boardings in June 2016 were made during peak periods • 6:00 – 9:00am and 4:00 – 7:00pm
• This would result in higher fares those trips.
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Background
Research
Analysis
Equity Impacts Airport surcharge • Significant equity impacts associated with airport surcharge – many airport workers make minimum wage. • Impacts could be mitigated by exempting airport employees from fare surcharge. • Examples of mitigation: • Distribute special Breeze Cards to airport employees that are coded to exempt them from the surcharge • Exempt users of existing Breeze Cards - charge the fee on Breeze Card purchases, rather than the fare
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Background
Research
Analysis
Conclusions & Recommendations • MARTA should continue to study the impacts of fare changes, especially as the system expands • Currently, changing to a variable structure would be difficult to justify, unless MARTA was raising fares. • MARTA should study the airport surcharge option further, assuming they are comfortable mitigating equity impacts. 30
Questions? Photo: Tunnels south of Five Points Station, Sept 1980 Source: Atlanta History Center Archives