JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? INCLUDING:
TIM HARFORD FORECASTING
WILLIAM HAGUE WORLD AFFAIRS
NORMAN LAMONT THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JAMES KYNGE
CHINA & THE EMERGING MARKETS
CLIVE WOODWARD THE YEAR IN SPORT
JANUARY 2016
CONTENTS: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016?
CONTRIBUTING SPEAKERS TIM HARFORD
The lessons of forecasting
WILLIAM HAGUE
Four forces shaping the world
LEO JOHNSON
Marilyn Monroe on disruption
JUSTIN WEBB
America’s squeezed centre
JAMES KYNGE When China sneezes
DOUGLAS ALEXANDER The Battle for Britain
NORMAN LAMONT
A year of two economic halves
WILL BUTLER-ADAMS Forget about global conditions
MARTIN VANDER WEYER
City cheer, whatever happens with Brexit
TONY TRAVERS
All change for London and the regions
GUY SHONE
Time to restore our trust in banks
CLIVE WOODWARD The sporting year
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016?
TIM HARFORD FT ‘Undercover Economist’ Presenter, Radio 4 More or Less
Who knows what’s around the corner? Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes were the most admired and influential economists of the 20th century. They were also enthusiastic forecasters and investors, yet they were both caught unawares by the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression. However this utter failure from two of the greatest economists who ever lived is not entirely surprising: forecasts of all kinds tend to be wrong! But while they made the same error, Fisher and Keynes met very different fates. When they died, shortly after the Second World War, Irving Fisher was all but bankrupt, his reputation and once-great fortune destroyed. John Maynard Keynes died a millionaire. What made the difference was their agility in the face of a forecasting failure. Put simply, Keynes changed his investment approach, and Fisher did not. As stocks continued to fall over months and years, Fisher borrowed money and bought more. Keynes, in contrast, abandoned his attempts to forecast the economic cycle and switched to the value-investing approach now closely associated with Warren Buffett. Why was Fisher stuck while Keynes adapted? He found himself trapped by his own public pronouncements (most famously that stocks had reached “a permanently high plateau” just before they began an extended fall of 89 per cent from their peak). But Fisher was also imprisoned by his self-confidence and his belief that the world would submit to rational quantitative analysis. Keynes was fortunate to have made his mistakes more privately, and to have experienced reverses of the market. Raising money for his first fund, he wrote to his father “win or lose, this high stakes gambling amuses me.” That playful attitude may have helped him change course when necessary. I’ve been thinking of Fisher and Keynes while reading the latest psychological research into forecasting. It offers three striking lessons. First, most people are terrible forecasters. Second, good forecasters are even better in teams, challenging assumptions and illuminating each other’s blind spots. Third, good forecasting requires the ability to criticise your own thinking, looking for reasons that you might be wrong and being willing to adapt. That’s a pleasing discovery. It means a flexible and self-critical mindset not only helps us when we get it wrong, but also that our forecasts won’t be wrong quite so often. The only honest answer to the question “What’s around the corner?” is “I don’t know for sure.” The good news is that with the right mentality, we can turn the corner ready to respond to whatever we find.
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JANUARY 2016
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? WORLD AFFAIRS
LORD HAGUE Foreign Secretary 2010-2014
Four forces shaping the world Shortly after I became Foreign Secretary, the course of world events became markedly and systemically less stable. After one tour of the Arab world, every country I had visited soon became the scene of demonstrations, revolution or, tragically, civil war. Colleagues joked that I must be causing it. In fact, hugely powerful trends are shaping these and other events at a pace and on a scale that all political leaders find extremely difficult to control. There are four massive forces at work. One is the Information Revolution, bringing so many benefits and freedoms to our lives, but also fuelling a demand for accountability and responsiveness in government that brings instability where such virtues are lacking. A second is the long-term rise of religious intolerance in the Middle East, which coupled with Information Revolution makes possible the rapid expansion of ISIL, able to find recruits and spread hatred across the globe. Third is massive demographic change. While populations fall or stagnate in many advanced economies, some others are set to grow dramatically. You only have to add up the numbers to see how unsustainable was Europe’s response to the migration crisis last year. The increase in the population of Africa and the Middle East over the next 30 years looks likely to be twice the entire population of Europe today: a growth of over 100,000 a day. The need to stem what could become one of the largest movements of people in human history will bring new foreign interventions by the USA and European nations, to try to stabilise countries facing crisis or collapse. The fourth force at work is the more multi-polar world, creating more centres of decision taking than ever before. That does not make major breakthroughs impossible (as the Paris agreement on climate change shows), but it does make them harder. The Syrian conflict has as yet proved impervious to solutions, and in the economic field the shattered unity of OPEC makes the prediction of oil prices even more hazardous. None of this should make us pessimistic. Great diplomatic strides were made last year in relations with Iran and Cuba, and ending the decades-long conflict in Columbia. Economies can recover and grow steadily with the right policies, as the UK continues to demonstrate. And science is on the edge of huge advances in areas like energy production. The exciting upward curve of human achievement will, however, be distorted in 2016 by more volatility and instability than we are used to, driven by these four and many other forces. From US elections to commodity prices and the Chinese economy, the outlook carries much uncertainty. So this is a year for businesses and governments to ensure that they can handle not only the crisis or challenge they can predict, but also the one they can’t.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? DISRUPTION
LEO JOHNSON Founder, Sustainable Finance Co-Presenter, Radio 4 FutureProofing
Monroe on Disruption On the cricket pitch last Summer I tried to smack the ball into a lake, missed it and severed my Achilles tendon. Eventually I started to hobble around the neighbourhood on crutches. I live in the ex-orchard turned to concrete known as Kilburn. Over the weeks, I began to spot bunches of wild grapes ripening from green to purple to black. One day in the park I got overtaken by an old Italian man. “Excuse me,” I said on impulse, “but do you know how to make wine?” He stopped, back ramrod straight. “The soles of my feet,” he replied, “are still red from making wine as a boy.” We were off. We were going turn Brent into Napa Valley. The man’s name is Paulo Santini. He is 84. It turns out he lives two doors down from me. He last made wine 55 years ago in his village in Emilio Romagna. First the two of us, then John from three doors down, and eventually some fifty of us picked 400 pounds of local grapes – knocking on bewildered neighbours’ doors to pick their vines, washing each other’s feet, trampling the vintage barefoot. The project is called Unthinkable Drinkable Brent. We made 200 bottles; Brent Crude is its local appellation. The Archbishop of Canterbury has a bottle in Lambeth Palace reserved, it is alleged, for unrepentant sinners. Does this story tell us anything about disruption? Here’s a take. “Sometimes,” Marilyn Monroe once said, “good things fall apart so that better things can fall into place.” The city that shaped us all, Henry Ford’s city of fossil-fuel driven mass production that lifted millions out of artisanal poverty, has started to produce problems. From 200,000 people a day fleeing the broken countryside for the megacities, we now have chronic air pollution and socially and economically broken communities. But is something better falling into place? Three dawning revolutions give me optimism. The Energy Revolution: By 2020, 80% of the world’s population is expected to be living in places where renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels. As renewables approach cost parity, international governments can withdraw the $5.3 trillion annual subsidies to support fossil fuels. The prospect is emerging for a cheap and abundant power source to build markets, improve productivity and drive growth. Blockchain and the Financial Sector Revolution: If you want to send $100 to Ghana it will cost you $11 and take ten days. With the Blockchain’s distributed ledger, it’s less than 2% and verified in ten minutes. What this could allow, with capital just the start of its disruptions, is the zero-cost intermediary-free global transfer of assets. The Urban Revolution: Against the tide of the virtual, my hunch is that what will rise in value in 2016 and beyond is the real. Real food, real place (as AirBnB shows us) and real relationships. The city that will thrive will not be the ‘product in trash out’ city that reduces us to the role of atomised consumer, but the place that rebuilds and harnesses our potential as makers and as citizens. For me it’s the mother of all Marilyn Moments.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? US ELECTION
JUSTIN WEBB Today Programme Presenter Former BBC North America Editor
The race for the White House I once asked a senior Obama aide why the first act of the administration, when they took over from George W Bush, was to chuck the bust of Winston Churchill out of the Oval office. “Get over it,” he said: “we thought it was Eisenhower. All elderly white guys look alike to us.” He was only half joking. The destruction of white domination of America is gathering pace. In seven years from now whites will make up less than half the under 30s population. By 2050 they will be a minority in the whole nation. 2016 might be their last hurrah. What fascinates me about the Republican race is whether the winning candidate will be open to a racially diverse and decreasingly religious America – or will they hunker down and try to win one last presidential bid by super-serving white folks? So do they pick Marco Rubio or Chris Christie (let us draw a veil around Jeb), or do they plump for the red meat of Ted Cruz or Donald Trump? To many the latter course looks mad: a glorious (or inglorious) final stand that destroys the party for a generation. Yet it’s not so simple. Yes, Hispanic and Asian and mixed race voters need to be respected and engaged, but there’s another change taking shape: American politics is increasingly about total identity. As David Frum, former speechwriter to George Bush, put it recently: “In 1960, I wouldn’t have learned much about your politics if you told me that you hunted. Today, that hobby strongly suggests Republican loyalty. Unmarried? In 1960, that indicated little. Today, it predicts that you’re a Democrat, especially if you’re also a woman.” His point is that when politics becomes so much a part of wider identity there’s little that a candidate can do to reach across the divide. The very attempt (a Republican cracking down on guns, for instance) would be electoral suicide. 2016 may well be about super-serving your own folks, so don’t be surprised if the Republicans go for broke. By the middle of this century they will have to find a way of breaking through, there will be nowhere else to go, but for this election the Trump/Cruz option is not electorally as barmy as it looks. The Democrats will also cut free of the centrist stuff of the past. Even if Hillary Clinton is the candidate (there’s no alternative unless someone can be brought in as an emergency addition in July and pushed through a brokered Convention), she will be pushed to the left of her party. Come the Autumn the full maelstrom will be upon us, but to little effect. Democrats will vote Democrat and Republicans will vote Republican. The centre will be squeezed. And America will wake up, when it’s all over, in the same two camps as now. Never in human history will so much money have been spent, by so few, achieving so little.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? CHINA & THE EMERGING MARKETS
JAMES KYNGE Emerging Markets Editor, Financial Times
China’s impact on the world China will remain the engine of global growth in 2016, as far as headline GDP is concerned. But this won’t tell the full story, nor will it illuminate China’s overarching impact on the world. Vast industrial overcapacity is creating a deflationary downdraught unsettling the Asian region, while huge outflows of capital are depressing the renminbi’s value and putting further pressure on regional currencies. Importantly, this overcapacity (in heavy industries like steel, cement, copper, coal, aluminium, construction and shipbuilding) is also dampening enthusiasm for investment. Sliding investment growth hobbles global demand for commodities, which in turn is a big factor behind the unfolding economic strife in several commodity exporters, most notably Brazil. This situation is unlikely to alleviate in 2016. But notwithstanding the pressures, China is not collapsing. The key narrative is not one of meltdown in slow motion, as many believe. It’s a transition from the old heavy industry towards an emerging consumer-led economy driven by services. The problem is that it will take at least five years, possibly a decade. Until then China’s influence on the global economy will continue to be volatile. So the main issue at September’s G20 in Hangzhou will be Chinese economic stability and the stability of the renminbi. Infrastructure investment in emerging markets will be another big theme, as the world grows disillusioned with the impact of QE and casts around for a replacement engine of growth. All of which makes 2016 a tricky year for EM investors. Many are searching for the bottom of the recent funk (not a crisis, I would argue), but it will prove elusive. I expect the story to remain weak, with oil and commodity prices still depressed. Equally, countries that focus on manufacturing (like South Korea, Taiwan, Poland and the Czech Republic) will find resurgence hampered by relatively weak European and US demand. Most attractive for investors will be EMs that run a current account surplus, focus mostly on manufacturing, are net oil importers and have relatively low debt to GDP levels. They include India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Hungary. Some Andean economies could start to look more attractive, but steer clear of Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela – and Africa.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? EU REFERENDUM
DOUGLAS ALEXANDER Former Labour Scottish Secretary & Europe Minister
The EU Referendum: nationalism vs rationalism Although it seems probable that David Cameron will secure a policy deal with fellow European leaders in February, the politics of the EU referendum remain fraught. Just last month, a referendum in Denmark to modify their country’s opt-out on justice and home affairs was unexpectedly rejected, with the refugee crisis widely seen as influencing the result. So no one should be in any doubt that the risk of Britain withdrawing from the EU when this vote is held in the coming months is real — and growing. In last year’s General Election the Nationalists triumphed in Scotland. We then saw Jeremy Corbyn elected leader of the Labour Party to the astonishment of everyone (including himself). The global financial crisis trashed confidence in our elites, from bankers and CEOs to politicians. And that distrust, combined with deep grievances over immigration and national sovereignty, could further energise the campaign to take Britain out of Europe in the months ahead. It’s also worth recollecting that the Scottish referendum became defined less by evidence and statistics than emotion and identity; it was about nationalism, not rationalism. The coming vote on Europe is going the same way, with the risk that the decision will be to pull apart rather than pull together. David Cameron believes he can negotiate a new and better deal for Britain to remain inside the EU in the weeks ahead. But it seems unlikely that other EU leaders will be willing to undertake a fundamental redesign as they try to deal with simultaneous continent-wide security, refugee and Eurozone crises. The rational, calm articulation of the economic facts around EU membership by the political and business elites is unlikely to be sufficient to win the coming referendum. Evidence-based argument must be supplemented with emotional connection and a positive account of our future. Whether those lessons have been learned will emerge in the coming months. The British public may yet shrug their shoulders and simultaneously think the EU is rather irritating, but on balance we are better in. If they don’t, the coming referendum could leave Britain out of Europe and Scotland out of Britain. The stakes really are that high.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? POLITICAL ECONOMY
LORD LAMONT Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Chair, British Iranian Chamber of Commerce
The prospects for 2016 What happens if there’s a narrow vote to stay in the EU? If the British vote to stay, markets will settle. If we vote to leave, I would expect a degree of uncertainty that would have some short-term adverse effect. Whatever the result, I doubt if controversy will ever completely end. Britain may remain a member of the EU but people will continue to argue over it; equally, if Britain leaves, the next day some people will campaign for re-entry. I don’t believe the Referendum will settle the matter finally. What will be the impact of very small interest rate rises? I believe the UK could stand a very small interest rate rise, and a very small interest rate rise is likely to be all you get. Attention will be more focused on the US. At the moment, there’s a clear difference of opinion between what the markets expect and what the Fed is signalling it will do. The latter has made it clear it expects to increase rates several times in 2016. My expectation is that the Fed will not be able to do what it is signalling, and that there may only be one interest rate rise in the US. How will tensions play out between Iran and Saudi Arabia? This is an extremely serious and unpredictable situation. In addition to nuclear agreement with the West, one of the positive developments of 2015 was bringing Iran into talks on resolving the conflict in Syria and Yemen. This was strongly opposed by Saudi Arabia, which fears Iran becoming much more powerful and possibly replacing it as the main ally of the West. Both have hot-headed elements and use religion to support their own national interest. But despite the rhetoric, Iran is normally pragmatic and cautious in foreign policy. They have fulfilled the conditions of the nuclear deal in order to ease sanctions, and I expect the Iranian Government to give priority to rebuilding their economy and seek to avoid open conflict with Saudi Arabia. If you were an investor, where would you put your money? Long term I would put it in emerging markets in Asia. For high-risk money, I would consider direct investment in Iran. In the relatively short term, I would invest in Europe, where I believe the economy will perform better than many expect. I would focus on medium sized rather than large global companies. I expect a gloomy, deflationary first half, but towards the end of 2016 I believe the positive effects of falling oil and commodity prices will be felt quite strongly in the US, the UK and Europe, and will increase growth.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? THE ENTREPRENEUR’S PERSPECTIVE
WILL BUTLER-ADAMS Managing Director, Brompton Bicycles
The challenges for business China is falling off a cliff, the Middle East is in turmoil, oil prices are sinking, the US is putting up interest rates…. WE’RE DOOMED! Hold on a minute. A moment ago the Euro was about to fracture, Greek contagion would spread everywhere and oil prices were at record highs…. WE WERE DOOMED! Boom or bust, peace or war, the world keeps spinning and business goes on. Radio 4 pundits would have us believe that the ‘macro’ drama of the moment will do for us all, but while it might affect headline figures like GDP it isn’t the thing that determines whether most companies will succeed or fail. For most SMEs, which are the lifeblood of any economy, profit or loss is determined by things much closer to home – vision, leadership and the business plan. No matter what the external challenges, they’re the foundation stones without which there is nothing for people to rally around and there can be no clear direction of travel. That said, there are two challenges for business as we begin the year. The world is one big marketplace, yet the UK is woefully poor when it comes to exporting. Given we’re supposed to be a nation of adventurers, we have an irrational fear of export. We over think, over research and over plan it – when we should just get on and do it! Book a holiday that coincides with a relevant trade show (there’s always a trade show) and you will learn more in a long weekend than in years of procrastination. If it looks positive, make a plan and take advantage of oodles of support through the likes of UKTI. Secondly, businesses need to innovate to overcome the barriers to entry. For many this conjures up images of Emmett Brown in Back to the Future. Indeed we have a Dr Brown at Brompton in the shape of our founder, Andrew Ritchie. But innovation goes wider and deeper than invention. It’s about how you treat your team (we have a nine day fortnight), what you stand for (the real brand), your distribution and your implicit knowhow – sometimes impossible to patent, but still very valuable. It’s also about being unafraid, taking risks in developing your product. That’s exactly what we’re doing at Brompton Bicycles in 2016. For us, success has little or no connection to ‘global conditions.’ It’s what we make it.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? CITY
MARTIN VANDER WEYER Business Editor, The Spectator
The view from the City Is the City prepared for possible Brexit? The City is famously pragmatic and opportunistic. It will cope with Brexit should it come. Most don’t believe its status as the pre-eminent global financial centre would be lost: the concentration of skills, English language and contract law, availability of office space and back-office staff, central time zone, quality of life, housing for expatriates and so on all favour London. And of course Brexit would mean freedom from EU interference in financial regulation – including bonus caps! Where do you see interest rates? Only a tiny minority of pundits expect anything more than a nominal quarter-point rise this year. Markets have already adjusted to the idea that the long-term trend is very slowly upwards. Depositors will continue to receive pitiful returns, and conventional equity portfolio investment is unlikely to fare much better. So there may be a trend towards less conventional forms of investment like P2P lending, equity crowdfunding and ‘angel’ venture capital. If you were a major investor, where would you put it? There are good businesses, large and small, which are undervalued by stock markets on traditional measures – and there are sectors like healthcare that have enormous growth prospects reflecting demographic change. Thoughtful stock picking for long-term holds (value investing) is always worthwhile. I also believe there are recovery prospects in European markets, including Spain and France, on a 5-10 year view. The Asian markets are out, but the exception, if only there were more good ways to invest directly there, is India. It has strong growth prospects, high tech skills and educational levels and a growing middle class with a global diaspora. What about the ‘sharing’ economy – are you a fan? Yes, and it can only grow as a provider of a variety of skills and services. But beware: the taxman and other arms of the state will inevitably attempt to tax and regulate such a fast-growing area of economic activity.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? LONDON & THE REGIONS
TONY TRAVERS Professor, London School of Economics
Pressures for London and the regional economies Will the choice of Mayor have much bearing on London’s economy? The result of May’s election is important for the London economy. Candidates have different views about house building and development: the city’s population is rising at an annual rate of 100,000 and needs perhaps 50,000 new homes per year. Once Crossrail opens in 2018-19, there are few major rail developments on the horizon. The new mayor needs to ensure he has the resources to accommodate over 10 million inhabitants by 2030. What makes London such a dynamic economy? London’s economy is amazingly innovative and adaptable. As new economic models and mechanisms emerge, the city’s residents and firms have proved capable of innovating and taking advantage of change. Bicycle hire schemes, car-sharing and new methods of raising capital flourish in London: the concentration of people and business over a 600 square mile area makes such productive behaviour easier than in less densely-populated or smaller urban centres. How will the spending cuts effect local government? The Chancellor has cut local government more than any other significant part of the public sector. The NHS, pensions, international development, and now defence and police are all protected from real terms cuts. Councils have faced spending reductions of 25 to 30 per cent, which they have managed surprisingly well. Looking ahead, there will be a major reform to local authority funding which is intended to incentivise economic growth. Giving planning permission and growing the economy will take precedence over social needs. Local areas may start to look very different in the near future. What are the major challenges facing the regions? London and the wider South East have dominated the UK economy and public life for decades. George Osborne’s ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and ‘Midlands Engine’ policies will devolve power to city regions and, it is hoped, encourage additional economic growth outside the London super-region. High Speed 2 is to be built to link the capital with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. Improvements are also to be made to road and rail connections between Leeds and Manchester. More regionally balanced growth is the objective, though the evidence of history is that this will be very hard to achieve in the short-term.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? FINANCIAL SECTOR
GUY SHONE Report Author, Financial Capability of the UK
Time to rebuild trust After cancelling the review into the culture of banking, the FCA will have another (perhaps final) chance to prove it is capable of acting for customers. The regulator has been unable to understand and change its own culture – so advising other firms how to do so would be farcical. The challenge is one of leadership capability and nothing to do with data or processes. Trust based initiatives have delivered nice looking KPIs while doing nothing to increase the trust of real customers. For the public it should be about honesty, leaders’ behaviour and courage; but brands find that uncomfortable, so deflect to other areas like trumpeting their charitable activities. In 2016 we must close the gap, the result of disingenuous engagement over a long period of time. This year fintech start-ups must begin to deliver. The superficial ones, where rhetoric and generic consultancy outweigh technical ability, will rightly leave the market; the rest will move from exploratory projects into more meaningful partnerships. Meanwhile fintech has an image and a language problem that needs to be resolved: it proudly describes itself as innovative, but the wider public is already bored with the homogeneity! As for my predictions… 2016 will be the year of the female investor. Research shows that women are better at investing in volatile markets – and 2016 will be volatile. Men are six times more likely to display erratic behaviour and trade too early. Women also score higher at risk management. Hundreds of thousands of customers will be in a mess. A lack of proper advice means that many will slide into problem debt. We know that personal, practical support works while ‘online triage’ fails, but Government will continue to pour funding into glossy generic websites. If we eventually see an interest rate rise it will put many homeowners under greater pressure, while high street savers breathe a small sigh of relief. Those with larger investments will remain cautious amid continued turbulence in the market, but remember: stock markets aren’t always the most reliable indicator of economic health. They are just the most talked about.
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JANUARY 2016
WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER IN 2016? SPORT
SIR CLIVE WOODWARD Legendary Coach
The sporting year 2016 promises to be a huge year for sport, filled with exciting narratives. Having been shown up by the Southern Hemisphere in the World Cup, every team has a point to prove in the 6 Nations – none more so than England under Eddie Jones. I’m looking forward to rejoining the ITV team. In football we’ll see the conclusion of the most unpredictable Premier League season for years. Even as a Chelsea fan I can admit that. It has given young talent the opportunity to shine. The prospect of Jamie Vardy, Harry Kane, Dele Alli and John Stones becoming the backbone of England’s Euro 16 team is very exciting – as is the thought of England facing Wales in the group stages. Take it from me, it will be anything but straightforward: knock out competitions are all about who performs best when the pressure’s at its greatest. I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on Gareth Bale, after being fortunate enough to work with him at Southampton. Then Team GB will head off to the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio. It’s a special experience. I will never forget my time as Director of Sport for Team GB from Beijing through to London. Viewing it from my current vantage point on the IOC Entourage Commission, I think it will be tough to beat the record 29 gold medal haul in 2012. Watch out for Bradley Wiggins bidding to become the most decorated British Olympian ever, and the arrival of Golf and Rugby Sevens. Major tournaments promise historic performances and touching moments of sportsmanship. Both the Olympics and Euro 2016 are welcome sights, hopefully re-establishing athletes’ and fans’ confidence despite the ongoing IAAF & FIFA scandals. I’ll also be watching every minute of the Ryder Cup. If it’s half as exciting as last time, Minnesota will be a great place to be in September. Last but definitely not least, the sport in the best shape as we start the year is boxing, with an unprecedented dozen world titles in British hands. I love it. I have been lucky enough to work with some great athletes, but the attitude I’ve seen from boxers is beyond that of any other team or individual. To borrow a quote from Muhammad Ali, “The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses - behind the lines, in the gym, and out there on the road.” If you spend a day with Anthony Joshua or Nicola Adams you will see exactly what this means. Throw into the mix the other great British athletes competing at the highest level – notably Andy Murray, Chris Froome and Lewis Hamilton – and you start to appreciate the breadth of sporting talent we have in this country.
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