Crisis or Chance?

Between the pre-coronavirus world and the post-coronavirus world. It is on precisely this knife-edge that we find ourselves right now. Our world is at a turning point that no one knows how long will last, let alone what will come after it. The global simultaneity, the collective experience and the all-encompassing magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic are unprecedented – and began robbing our industry of its very raison d’être from the outset. “Who on earth is interested in clothes at the moment?” was the question being asked not only by my entire circle of friends, but also professionals like fashion retailers, trade fair organisers and brand owners during the initial state of shock. To begin with, it was all about keeping calm, remaining vigilant and taking care of one another. The initial panic was then followed by tangible measures: first Zoom conferences and local delivery services and then government bailouts. From one day to the next, the already strained partnership between manufacturers and retailers was put to an existential test – outcome unknown. Deliveries and wage costs became a question of moral integrity. Companies like Adidas and Deichmann announced they would be withholding rent payments for their currently closed stores, while CEOs like Kering’s François- Henri Pinault and Puma’s chief executive Bjørn Gulden declared that they were personally taking a pay cut. Denim brands like Levi’s started collecting donations, while sneaker labels like Nat2 and New Balance switched over their production to maskmaking. Suddenly, nothing was the same. And looming over all of this, the unavoidable question: do we really want to go back to what we had prior to the crisis, the ‘before’? Even if a glimmer of hope is gradually emerging with the reopening of stores and the easing of strict curbs on social contact, the biggest challenges still lie ahead of us. The forced slowdown will inevitably be followed by a detox period. And only then will we move into the time after, the post-pandemic era.

Seasons

Along with closed production facilities, disrupted supply chains and orders being cancelled left, right and centre, we are also seeing the common industry ailment of surplus goods and a real consumption backlog in the retail sector. And it’s obvious what that means for spring/summer 2021. Warehouses – on both sides – are full to the rafters. Now that people in selfisolation have had time to declutter their wardrobes, entire new collections will have to be quickly downsized, meaning that there will have to be a focus on bestsellers for the time being. Blithely swamping the market with products now seems so 2019. Instead, brands have decided to take large sections of their current summer collections into the spring/summer 2021 season. They are slamming the brakes on new developments, shrinking collection lines to the bare minimum and building on what they already have. Closed-down factories in China and Italy are only now gradually starting to resume operations so the delivery of goods will be delayed. International tradeshows have been postponed by months. A shakeup of the seasons is on the agenda – affecting everything from the ordering process to the delivery. After years of constantly overtaking itself, the fashion industry now has the once-ina-lifetime opportunity to recalibrate. Displaying discount summer dresses next to newly arrived down jackets when it’s 30 degrees outside seems more ridiculous than ever. July orders? Currently unthinkable. It will be a challenge not to simply flog off summer goods on the cheap, but instead to figure out a joint strategy involving producers, brands and retailers for the restart. Side by side, hand in hand.

Like a ghost town — With everyone hunkered down in their homes, usually buzzing tourist hotspots like Times Square in New York are now more or less deserted.

CONSUMERISM

Even the seemingly obvious prognosis that e-commerce would profit from the closure of bricks-and-mortar retail with online sales of fashion has turned out to be unfounded in recent weeks. The coronavirus crisis is resulting in high losses, even for big players like Zalando. In the first quarter of this year, Zalando slipped into the red and expects its adjusted EBIT to be in the range of minus 90 million to minus 110 million euros. “It’s not as if people are now sitting at home and ordering clothing online. On the contrary: the figures show that people’s priorities shift dramatically when they’re stuck at home,” says trend analyst Carl Tillessen from the Deutsches Mode-Institut (German Fashion Institute). According to him, fashion is primarily about how you look when you’re out and about, and not how you look when you’re sat at home alone. “So in the fashion industry, apart from a few manufacturers of lounge and yogawear, there are actually only losers in this crisis and no winners,” says Tillessen. Hope is found in the fact that, even in extreme situations, online could never be a real substitute for offline. Fabrics need to be felt, trousers need to be tried on and personal style consultation is better when carried out face to face. If they want to maintain consumer solidarity, retailers should make sure they practice their “We’re here for you!” preaching in the future too. From window shopping at a distance via Instagram Stories and delivery by bicycle courier – the coronavirus has proven just how creatively small, local retailers have been able to deal with the shock of the global shutdown. Improvisation skills and creativity will continue to be highly valued in 2021.

In the fashion industry, apart from a few manufacturers of lounge and yogawear, there are actually only losers in this crisis and no winners.

DIGITAL

Pretty much the whole world seems to be WFH (working from home) right now. Inspiration for the design process has been sought online instead of on trips, virtual meetings have brought decision-makers all over the world closer together and in the end everyone has realised that it does surprisingly work. But why didn’t all this happen sooner? The fact that digital solutions will hold more sway in the future is one thing we have all learnt from this crisis. Collection handovers with fittings and being able to touch and feel fabric swatches will never completely replace digital meetings in the future but do offer an alternative that can help brands to reduce travel expenses and react faster to current fashion trends. “On a daily basis we are currently realising that things we thought had to be done in person can also be carried out remotely: office work, meetings, presentations, grocery shopping, school lessons, university work, even drinking coffee together, partying, buying clothes, personal style counselling, fashion shows, order appointments and even fashion fairs, congresses and Fashion Weeks. In all these areas, precedents have been set and none of them will fully revert back to how they were before,” says Carl Tillessen.

The fact that digital solutions will hold more sway in the future is one thing we have all learnt from this crisis.

And why should they? Especially now that we are seeing how well improvisation works. How quickly we can reinvent ourselves and how much technology can simplify processes. And that imperfection is not to be confused with unprofessionalism, but can, in fact, be extremely endearing.

ZEITGEIST

What a hark back to the past! The renaissance of talking for hours on the phone, the surge in popularity of puzzles and board games that are flying off the (online) shelves, record numbers of people watching the six o’clock news and improvised drive-in cinemas are bringing a touch of nostalgia to a privileged middle class. Millennials all over the globe are discovering the joys of baking, cooking, DIY and gardening. And all of that is giving them a greater sense of fulfilment and purpose than a new pair of brand-name jeans ever could. Li Edelkoort described the coronavirus as a “blank page” for humanity, an urgently needed new beginning, a “quarantine of consumption where we will learn how to be happy just with a simple dress, rediscovering old favourites we own, reading a forgotten book”. A prediction that garnered her criticism for being too biblical and presumptuous. So will everything just carry on as before? Not if you ask the Zukunftsinstitut (German Future Institute): “The coronavirus is bringing widespread change, the crisis is initiating a radical process of renewal: the 2020s will go down as the decade of resilience,” it says in their whitepaper. Nostalgic childhood memories, cocooning and escaping into nature are accompanying themes that will be further intensified by the coronavirus. Consumer movements like pre-loved fashion are being given a real boost by the pandemic. In detail, Edelkoort said that local industries and activities would gain momentum along with farmers’ markets and street events, dance and singing contests and a very dominant DIY aesthetic – DIY not as pastime during lockdown, but as a design element for collections.

FASHION

But what will fashion be like in spring 2021? It should be sustainable and uncomplicated and, more than anything, exude two things: ease and optimism. Overly wild flights of fancy and stylistic leaps are not expected. Instead, most brands are concentrating on the development of authentic and sustainable materials that make sense ecologically, as well as on essentials that exude a sense of tradition, timelessness and endurance. A subdued neutrality in colours and patterns will be key. Here’s an example: at Closed the most sustainable answer to the pandemic is unwashed ecru denim as a replacement for white denim, which is always bleached. A complete head-to-toe ecru look is ultra-cool and also very natural at the same time. Despite this, in the foreseeable future people will still want to dress up, throw post-lockdown parties and present their most recent shopping hauls on Instagram. In addition to the stylistic ‘slowing down’, particularly expressive looks as a way of rebelling against the threat of recession are predestined. “At this point in time, no one can say when the crisis will be over or when people will start buying clothes like they used to again. But what we can say with certainty is that – when the time comes – this will happen very quickly,” says Carl Tillessen. Studies on people’s behaviour in crisis situations – during the SARS outbreak in 2003, for example – show that consumption takes a V-shaped form. Which means that to begin with, the uncertainty associated with the onset of a crisis causes consumption to plummet. “But as soon as the crisis seems to have been overcome, it increases again just as quickly – mostly even to a higher level than prior to the crisis, as this phase is defined by a huge pent-up demand,” says Tillessen. This is also known as ‘revenge buying’.

A subdued neutrality in colours and pattern will be key.

SUSTAINABILITY

Pre-coronavirus, the industry was moving in a direction of sustainable, transparent and fair production. So by bringing the fashion carousel to an abrupt halt, is the crisis a fire-starter for sustainability? Yes and no. Once this is all over, consumers are likely to become more and more concerned with reducing their consumption (voluntarily or not) and will go out of their way to support sustainable brands. At the same time, the industry’s efforts will be thwarted by an impending recession. After all, in the future even the most idealistic customer may simply no longer be able to afford the more expensive jeans made of organic cotton, so they will opt for the cheaper pair from Primark instead. Nevertheless, sustainability needs to remain the prevalent theme of the denim industry and keywords like transparency, fair trade and, of course, sustainability have to make the shift from a ‘nice-to-have’ to a ‘must-have’. But retail prices of sustainable products should only be slightly higher than those of conventional products. And customers may require more information about the complex topic of sustainable production. It’s time to move towards fewer, higher quality products, completely biodegradable fashion and even more urgently: new basics! After all, one of the most sustainable things brands can do is to make beautiful clothing that lasts.

POST-PANDEMIC

The good news is there will be a time after the coronavirus. The bad news is that nobody really knows what it will hold. Trend analysts like Carl Tillessen have a more pragmatic view of the future: “Some people are saying we will become more mindful and less materialistic after the crisis. Others are claiming that people will shop more sustainably or fairer, or start showing loyalty to local, independent bricks-and-mortar stores once more. And fashion will no longer be fast, but slow again... All of these forecasts may sound rosy, but they are also irresponsible, because they are based on nothing but wishful thinking. Corona is not a fairy godmother, but an extremely aggressive virus. And it’s not fulfilling any of our wishes but thwarting our professional and private plans.” The direction that is taken in the next few months will have a lasting impact on the years to come. According to the German Future Institute, the first phase of destruction will be followed by a phase of opportunities, during which the extent of change will depend on the creativity, identity and speed of each and every individual. It’s now or never! And the process will, at best, ultimately end in a phase of innovation, adaptation and new models for society and the economy. Otherwise, we run the risk of falling back into old modes of cut-throat competition that would be even tougher than before. AC or BC? The choice is ours.