Man’s Role in Climate Change: A Student’s Understanding
Marty Cornell October 26, 2009
Does the Science Support Human-Induced Global Warming?
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“Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent that combating climate change. The Science is Beyond dispute and the facts are clear.� President-elect Barack Obama, November 19, 2008
Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize Physics, 1997
“Science has unambiguously shown that we’re altering the destiny of our planet” “The science is clear, we’re boiling our planet” 2009 speech at Tsinghua University, China
“With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.” +100 PhD Scientists in LA Times Ad, March 30, 2009
“…..The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.”….
The Issue: Climate Change Global Warming Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Carbon-based (CAGW)
Two Views on Global Warming Proponents of CAGW (“alarmists”, “environmentalists”) Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century
Proponents of Natural Cycles (“skeptics”, “deniers”, “flat earthers”) Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century
CO2 GHG driven, amplified by H2O
Solar Cycle driven, forcings to be determined
Driving to tipping point crisis of run-away heat
Current trend is minor and nothing unusual
Computer model projections
Empirical Data
James E. Hansen, CAGW Proponent NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
26 April 2007 testimony to the Select Committee of Energy Independence and Global Warming of the U. S. House of Representatives entitled "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate" Air temperatures of the last quarter-century have been unprecedented for at least the past two thousand years. The atmosphere's current CO2 concentration is greater than it may have been for tens of millions of years. The earth "is close to dangerous climate change, to tipping points of the system with the potential for irreversible deleterious effects."
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summarizes the peer reviewed literature on climate every five years
What? Physical Science Basis
So What? Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Now What? Mitigation
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Summary for Policy Makers Written by an assemblage of representative from governments and NGO’s, with only a small scientific representation. Provide the science to support the need to control greenhouse gas levels.
“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade
People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade
“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade
People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade
“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade
People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade
“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade
People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade
“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade
People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade
Richard S. Lindzen, CAGW Skeptic Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26, 2009
The notion of a static, unchanging climate is foreign to the history of the earth or any other planet with a fluid envelope. The fact that the developed world went into hysterics over changes in global mean temperature anomaly of a few tenths of a degree will astound future generations. Such hysteria simply represents the scientific illiteracy of much of the public, the susceptibility of the public to the substitution of repetition for truth, and the exploitation of these weaknesses by politicians, environmental promoters, and, after 20 years of media drum beating, many others as well.
Global Warming Petition Project 31,478 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs
Roger A. Pielke, Both Natural and AGW Senior Research Scientist at CIRES, emeritus professor of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, retired.
“The focus on just CO2 as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. Natural variations are still quite important. Human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2. � Emission of aerosols into the atmosphere, Land management and land cover change.
$79 Billion so far
e.g. carbon sequestration
“Climate Money”, Joan Nova, via The Science and Public Policy Institute, July, 2009
Cap & Trade Cost $1,761 per Household Source: US Treasury
What Does the Science Say? What is Climate? What causes climate change? How do we measure climate change? Is the current warming unusual? How much of the current warming is due to man vs. nature?
Climate is what you expect.
Weather is what you get.
Brazoria County Airport Weekly Mean Temperature, OF
Annual Precipitation, Inches Wind Speed, mph
What Does the Science Say? What is Climate?
What causes climate change?
Components of the Climate System Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation
Changes in Solar Inputs
Changes in the Hydrological Cycle
Clouds Atmosphere
N2, O2, Ar,
Volcanic Activity
H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc. Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction
Aerosols Atmosphere-Ice Interaction
Precipitation Evaporation
Terrestrial Radiation
Heat Wind Exchange Stress
Human Influences
Ice Sheet
Glaciers
Biosphere Soil-Biosphere Interaction
Sea Ice
Hydrosphere: Ocean Ice-Ocean Coupling
LandAtmosphere Interaction
Land Surface Hydrosphere: Rivers & Lakes
Changes in the Ocean: Circulation, Sea Level, Biogeochemistry
Changes in the Cryosphere: Snow, Frozen Ground, Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers Changes in/on the Land Surface:Orography, Land Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems
ERBE Earth Radiation Budget Experiment 3 satellites, 1st launched in 1984 Measure energy exchanges between sun, earth, & space Albedo (reflectance) OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) Effect of clouds
Emission Spectra of the Sun and Earth
JunkScience.com, Updated August 2007
107
Reflected Solar Radiation 107 Wm-2
235
Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol, and Atmospheric Gases 77 Wm-2
Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm-2
Incoming Solar Radiation 342 Wm-2 Emitted by 165 Atmosphere 30 Emitted by clouds
77
40 Atmospheric Window Greenhouse Gases
67 Absorbed by Atmosphere Latent 78 Heat Reflected by Surface
30 168 Absorbed by Surface
350
390 24 78 EvapoSurface Thermals transpiration Radiation
40 324 Back Radiation
324 Absorbed by Surface
Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33 OC (59.4 OF) cooler!
i.e. -18OC instead of +15OC
NASA CERES Satellite
33 Wm-2 Reflected by Clouds
235 Wm-2 Outgoing Longwave Radiation
TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ
The # 1 Green House Gas Is:
The # 2 Greenhouse Gas Is:
The # 3 Greenhouse Gas Is:
Contribution Contributionof of Anthropogenic AnthropogenicGreenhouse GreenhouseGases Gases to tothe theNatural NaturalGreenhouse GreenhouseEffect Effect Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect
Global Greenhouse Effect
(2 - 10)% Tropospheric Ozone (2 - 10)% Nitrous Oxide (0 - 10)% Stratospheric H2O Remaining Greenhouse Gases (5 - 40)%
(5 - 25)% Halocarbons (10 - 25)% Methane
(0.5 - 1.5)% Water Vapor (60 - 95)%
(35 - 65)% Carbon Dioxide
Hans Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, Emissions and Air Quality, SAE, 1999
TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ
The primary source of CO2 emissions is……..
TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ The primary source of CO2 emissions is:
“…..the transportation sector now accounts for about third of all CO2 MIT gotone it WRONG! emissions in the US and road transportation is three quarters of that third.” Malcom A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elizabeth M. Drake, Andreas Schafer, Felix F. AuYeung; ON THE ROAD IN 2020, A life cycle analysis of new automobile technologies, Energy Laboratory Report # MIT EL 00-003, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October, 2000
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
“The United She got it WRONG! States and China emit 45% of the world’s greenhouse gases.” Press release prior to her Feb., 2009 trip to China
Scatter Scatter Band Band of of Global Global Annual Annual CO Emissions (ref. (ref. year year == 1996) 1996) CO22 Emissions Biomass Burning 1% Soil 28%
Vegetation 28%
Oceans 43%
Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, “State of Worldwide Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions Forecast of Traffic Emissions in Western Industrial Countries”, FISITA F98P008
~36,000 Billion Tons Carbon in Oceans Mauna Loa
0.038% (dry air)
TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ
The #1 source of man made CO2 is……
Distribution Distribution of of Worldwide Worldwide Annual Annual Anthropogene Emission Anthropogene CO CO22--Emission Private Home Heating and Small Consumers 20%
Incineration of Biomass 15%
28 Gt/yr. Industry 20%
Traffic 17%
32% Cars
33% Trucks
12% Other Traffic 6% Ocean Ships 17% Air Traffic
Power Stations 28%
Background Forcings
Climate “Forcings� Change Energy Balance The Sun Clouds (type and amount) Aerosols & Particulates Albedo (reflectivity) Land Use (vegetation, Urban Heat Island) Green House Gas Concentration
Milankovitch Cycles Drive Ice Age Cycles 21,000 year cycle elliptical orbit combined with tilt (precession of the equinoxes) 41,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5O wobble (tilt) 100,000 year cycle variation of the shape of earth’s elliptical orbit (cycle of eccentricity)
Eccentricity of Earth’s Orbit National Academy of Sciences
Ice Volume Del 18O %
More Ice
Planktonic Foram 18O as Proxy
Polar Bear Sub-species
Less Ice
1,000 of Years Ago
Note: Sea Level incorrect.
This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams
This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams
The Holocene Optimum
Oceans ~-120m = ~ -400 feet! During Last Glacial Maximum
http://uk.encarta.msn.com/media_461527006/ice_extent_during_the_last_ice_age.html
~14mm/year
Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com
20.2 cm/122 years = ~0.17 cm/year
Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com
Sea Level Change 21Aug09
54 mm
16.6 years
Data via Climate Audit from climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/
Ice Volume Del O-18 %
More Ice
Less Ice
Planktonic Foram O-18 as Proxy
“Eustatic sea level was higher than present during this last interglacial by ~4 to ~6 meters� IPCC 4TAR, Palaeoclimate, p 458
1,000 of Years Ago
NASA & ESA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SOHO Spotless Days Current Stretch: 75 days 2009 total: 217 days Since 2004: 728 days Typical Solar Min: 485 days
2009/09/23
Faculae
11 Year Cycle of Solar Variability +/- 0.1 Wm-2
Sunspot Number
Sunspot Number X 100
~1.0
OC
cooler
150
~ 50 sunspots over 30 year period, vs. 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots per 30 years in modern times
100 50
Little Ice Age
Frozen Thames, 1677
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Solar Cycle & Sea Level
( via Tide Gauges)
Recall the NASA current 3.3 mm/year rise rate since 1994
Sun Summary The Sun dominates Earth’s climate. Earth’s orbit eccentricities cause major climate changes: Ice Ages Interglacials, ~5.5 OC swings in temperature average, Ice ages dominate (70% - 90% of 100,000 yr cycle). Ice Ages decrease vegetation, increase deserts. Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last glacial maximum. Today’s temperatures are not unusual, having been equaled or exceeded at least 3 times since the last glacial maximum. ~11 year solar cycles strongly correlate with climate changes during interglacial periods. Low sunspots ~ -1OC. Modern sea level fluctuations highly correlate with solar cycle.
Solar +/- 0.1 Wm-2 not sufficient by itself to cause current warming; need amplifier, forcing feedback. Magnetic field of solar winds Affect cosmic rays reaching Earth’s atmosphere Henrik Svensmark on Global Warming, youtube.com
+/- Low level clouds
High (6 km) Cirrus Clouds Warm Earth
Low Clouds Reflect Sunlight Cool Earth
Photo by Robert Campbell
Measuring Earth’s Albedo
Observed Earthshine
From 20th century GHG Increase
Calibration Band
From satellite cloud data
Strength of Solar Wind +/- Magnetic Field -/+ Cosmic Rays Magnetosphere
Bow shock line
Sun’s Turbulent Magnetic Fields
Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from NASA, Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics.
Svensmark Hypothesis The Cosmos
Cosmic Rays
Create Seeds of Low-lying Clouds
Reflect 33 Wm-2
Svensmark Hypothesis A more active Sun decreases the amounts of low-lying clouds, which means that it warms the Earth. Creates Seeds of Low-lying Clouds
Ra
Co
ic
sm ic
Ra
ys
sm Co
The Cosmos
ys
Since 1987 Implies ~ -5% Cloud H2O ~ +1OC
The Solar – Climate Relationship
Lower Magnetic Field Strength
More Sunlight Reflected Into Space
Earth Becomes Cooler
Fewer Sunspots
More Low Level Cloud Formation
Less Solar Wind
More Galactic Cosmic Rays
Solar Flux
Inverse of Cosmic Rays Ocean Heat Flux
Atlantic Ocean Heat Flux Sea Level Rise
SST w/out ENSO
Sea Surface Temp.
CO2
GCR
Icehouse Greenhouse
Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003
Million Years BP
CO2
GCR
Icehouse Greenhouse
Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003
Million Years BP
El Capitan, Guadalupe Mountains
Coral reef formed ~260 million years ago…. …..when atmospheric CO2 was ~2000 ppm
Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response)
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Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009
Inquisition of Dr. Henrik Svensmark
Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009
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Cause? CLOUDS Result? and Temperature “When researchers observe natural changes in clouds and temperature, they have traditionally assumed that the temperature change caused the clouds to change, and not the other way around. To the extent that the cloud changes actually cause temperature change, this can ultimately lead to overestimates of how sensitive Earth’s climate is to our greenhouse gas emissions.” Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville,
Atmospheric Solar Heat Amplifier Meehl Hypothesis, Science, 28Aug09
Peak Solar Cycle
Less Low Level Cloud Formation
+0.2 Wm-2 Irradiance
Higher Evaporation
OC
+0.1 SST = > 0.5 Wm-2
Higher UV Radiation
More Ozone in Stratosphere
Warmer Stratosphere (Varies by Latitude)
Precipitation
Sea Surface Temperature
Observed
Model: no Stratosphere Ozone Chemistry Model: no Air-Sea interaction
Coupled Model
Coupled Model
Model with no Ozone Chemistry
Observations
Model: no Air-Sea interaction
Cloud Summary High level clouds trap heat. Low level clouds mostly reflect heat Net effect is ~ 33 Wm-2 Sun GCR hypothesis + or – cloud seeding -5% Cloud H2O ~ +1OC Albedo fluctuation correlated with last two solar cycles. Meehl hypothesis: peak solar more ozone and more evaporation (less clouds) ~ +0.1 OC SST. Photo by Andrei Aiordachioaie
Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32
Cloud Albedo
-2
-1
0
Wm-2
+1
+2
Solar Aerosols
Atmospheric Aerosols & Particulates Net Cooling of -0.5 Wm-2 (IPCC 4TR) @ 1 Wm-2 0.22 OC, this ~ -0.11 OC
Sarychev Peak Eruption 12Jun09, from International Space Station
Sahara Sand Storm over Atlantic
Station Fire, Los Angeles, 30Aug09
Contrails
Ship Tracks off North America
Black Carbon Absorbs solar radiation Decreases albedo
IPCC 4TAR: Aerosol cooling -0.5 Wm-2 Myhre 2009 “Black Carbon more significant than stated by IPCC, net aerosol cooling reduced to -0.3 Wm-2
Aerosol Summary Particles Multi-Task to Change Climate: Volcanic plumes (sulfates) cool. Dust storms & fires reflect, thus cool. Jet Contrails = high clouds, thus warm. Ship tracks (sulfates, low clouds) cool. Black carbon decreases albedo, thus warm. IPCC net effect -0.5 Wm-2 (i.e. cooling) Increase in Black Carbon decreases cooling to -0.3 Wm-2 This means IPCC impact of CO2 is overstated by 0.2 Wm-2 ~ 0.04 OC.
Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32
No volcanic aerosol effect is included by IPCC
Direct Aerosol Cloud Albedo Linear Contrails
-2
-1
0
Wm-2
+1
+2
Aerosols Oscillations
“Oscillations” SFWS The 4 seasons
Annually
2.3 OC global temp. swing
ENSO El Nino Southern 3 to 7 years +/- 0.4OC Oscillation globally PDO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
20 to 30 years?
?? 1976-77 shift +0.2OC
AMO
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
60 to 80 years
~+/- 0.5OC in north Atlantic
Recall 20th Century net warming of 0.6 OC Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere, John Christy UAH
Global Mean Surface Temperature (1961 – 1990) National Climate Data Center
Temperature, OC
16 15 14
3.8 OC
13 12 11
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
Month
A
S
O
N
D
NH 9.76 OC swing
Global Mean 2.3 OC swing
SH 4.8 OC swing
ENSO “Normal” a.k.a La Nina
ENSO El Nino
SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, January 1997
La Nina
30OC
8OC
Thermocline, 20OC NASA GISS
SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, November 1997
Transition
NASA GISS
SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, March 1998
El Nino
NASA GISS
Note
El Nino
La Nina
La Nina
Nothing unique about super El Nino of 1998
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors), Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface wind stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO
Warm Phase
Cool Phase
Abrupt PDO Phase Shift
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Aug to Oct: 1948 to 2003: Surface SST
North Atlantic Global
“Probably more than half of all satellitederived "global warming trends" are directly attributable to the 66 year AMO cycle.�
Northern Hemisphere Heating Faster Than Southern Hemisphere
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