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Geological, archaeological & astrophysical proof that the sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change Technical Report · November 2019 CITATIONS
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Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 1 of 10 = abstract submitted January 2020 for European Geosciences Union, General Assembly, May 2020, Vienna. The abstract is modified here by adding 6 figures. Abstract rejection is very likely (decision date is 31st Jan 2020).
Only key citations are given; please email for others. A cross-match between graphs of the Sun’s output and Earth's mean surface temperature is obvious at two scales (Figs 1, 2): (1) the last 2,000 years (2ky), represented by proxies (PAGES2k 2017 temperatures; Vieira et al. 2011 cosmogenic isotopes), both graphs being 'hockey sticks' with decadal 'sawteeth'; and (2) the last 250y (Berkeley temperature compilation; Chatzistergos et al. 2017 sunspot-group numbers). In both cases, temperature clearly lags the Sun’s output by 80-120y, aligning: (A) the sawteeth; (B) the ~1820AD and ~1700AD temperature- and solar minima (Little Ice Age nadir); (C) ensuing 'modern warming' and solar buildup to the modern solar Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004), strongest in 2ky; and (D) the next-strongest GM ~275-345AD and, tellingly, the ~400-450 warmest half-century (except post-1950?; Pages2k fig7a,b,c). Undeniably the Sun drives global temperature (Svensmark solar-magnetic/cloudiness link?). In turn, sea level (SL; post-1700 tide-gauges) closely cross-matches temperature, SL lagging ~20y (Figs 1, 2). Both lags probably reflect ocean thermal inertia and 'conveyor-belt' circulation (downwelled solar-heated North Atlantic water eventually upwells at Antarctica, affecting glacier flow rate into the ocean, hence SL). A sharp SL rise of 2-3m in only ~100y ~350-450AD reached ~1.5m above today's SL (Figs 3, 4, 5). This rise, sandwiched between SL falls of ~2m in ~200y, is Godwin's (1943) 'Romano-British transgression' (RBT), aka Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining ~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain [Fig. 5]), St Firmin (France), Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Fairbridge's updated (1976) Holocene SL compilation shows this ... continued
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 2 of 10 = abstract continued. Click ‘Linked data’ to see the submitted abstract in EGU format. oscillation (and others, likewise correlatable to solar GMs), verified by many later geological and archaeological studies. (Note also Blanchon et al. 2009 last-interglacial ~3m rise in <50y.) A glacio-eustatic origin, not glaciohydro-isostatic, is indicated by RBT's rapidity, great latitudinal span and associated global warming ~400AD (above). I suggest upwelling 'GM-overwarmed' water unleashed a Marine Ice-Sheet- and/or Ice-Cliff Instability event. Indeed, Antarctic seabed corrugations and cross-cutting iceberg ploughmarks suggest recent collapse of Antarctica's ice-sheet snout (overhanging the grounding line) after the buttressing ice-shelf fragmented (Wise et al. 2017 fig 4; "ice apocalypse" of Goodell 2017). If correct, the last such event made the grounding line recede behind its present position and occurred <11ky ago (Graham et al. 2013). This timing accords with the ~350-450 RBT; moreover Antarctic sea-surface temperature increased ~4°C in <100y ~300AD (Shevenell et al. 2011 fig 3d). CONCLUSIONS: (1) Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 (Fig. 2 bottom graph) accidentally; (2) warming will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM's 1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi); (3) the modern GM portends another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by ~2040 and ending by ~2100 (NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and glacier velocity; and accelerating world SL rise [Fig. 6]); (4) IPCC (2014) assertions supposedly incriminating man's CO2 emissions but disproven here include: (A) the Sun is unimportant in climate change; (B) Holocene SL was never higher than now; and (C) no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm ("medium confidence" only) until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged ~30x faster).
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 3 of 10 = References cited in abstract Berkeley (University of California. Global land temperatures have increased by 1.5 degrees C over the past 250 years. http:// berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/ Blanchon et al. 2009. Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand. Nature, 458, 881-885. Chatzistergos et al. 2017. New reconstruction of the sunspot group numbers since 1739 using direct calibration and “backbone” methods. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 602, article A69, 18p. Goodell 2017. The Doomsday Glacier. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/the-doomsday-glacier-113792/ Graham et al. 2013. Seabed corrugations beneath an Antarctic ice shelf revealed by autonomous underwater vehicle survey: Origin and implications for the history of Pine Island Glacier. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 118, 1356–1366. Fairbridge 1976. Shellfish-eating Preceramic Indians in coastal Brazil. Science, 191, 353-359. Godwin 1943. Coastal peat beds of the British Isles and North Sea. Journal of Ecology, 31, 199-247. IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, 151 p. PAGES2k Consortium 2017. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Nature Scientific Data, 4, 33p. https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201788 Shevenell et al. 2011. Holocene Southern Ocean surface temperature variability west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature, 470, 250-254. Svensmark 2007. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Astronomy & Geophysics, 48, 1.18-1.24. https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ article/48/1/1.18/220765 Vieira et al. 2011. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 531, article A6, 20p. Wise et al. 2017. Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks. Nature, 550, 506-518.
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 4 of 10 = Figure 1, obvious correlation between solar output (Graph 1), global mean surface temperature (Graph 2), local sea-surface temperature (Graph 3) & sea level (SL, Graph 4). Best visual solar/temperature correlation suggests a temperature delay (lag) of ~100y (see next slide). Graph 4’s dating, based on radiocarbon, is far less certain (+/- 200y) than the others.
1AD 1. Vieira et al. 2011. Solar output from proxies. Red sector based on Group Sunspot Number of Hoyt & Schatten 1998.
Previous solar TIME Grand Maximum, ~275-345AD Solar ‘Grand Maximum’ threshold
Lag time ~100y
4. Fairbridge 1976. Eustatic SL, from geological & archaeological shore benchmarks around the world. See also my Slide 5.
Modern solar Grand Maximum, 1937-2004
~310AD peak solar ~425AD peak temp.
~1700AD
2. PAGES2k 2017. Global mean surface temperature (proxies).
3. Cronin et al. 2003. Chesapeake Bay (USA) sea-surface temperature (proxy). Not included in PAGES2k 2017 (above). Note Cronin’s Medieval Warm Period (MWP) & Little Ice Age (LIA) divisions. Cronin pointed out: A) mean 20th C temp. not warmer than MWP-I; B) warmer 20th C extremes “may be partially due to greater sampling resolution”.
2000AD
~1850
MWP-I 450-900AD
~450AD
300AD (v. approx.; C14)
MWP-II 1000-1300 (‘conventional MWP’)
LIA I 14501530
LIA II 17201850
Red = HadCRUT4 (thermometers)
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 5 of 10 = Figure 2, obvious visual correlation between solar output (Graphs 1-3), global mean land surface temperature (Graph 4) & global sea level (SL; Graph 5). Temp. graph 4 is lagged 100y behind solar graphs 1-3; & SL 20y behind temp.. Also shown is atmospheric CO2 (Graph 6), which climbs overall like the others but lacks their up-down decadal ‘sawteeth’. 1. Chatzistergos et al. 2017. Group sunspot number (GSN; solar magnetic activity proxy) of various authors using different calibration methods. Black curve is Chatzistergos 2017 version, very similar to classical GSN of Hoyt & Schatten 1998 (yellow curve). Red & green curves (2016) claim to prove modern solar max. (red box) is unexceptional (see my Tech. Note 2019-17).
1800AD
TIME
2000AD
Solar ‘Grand Maximum’ threshold 2, 3. R.A. Rohde, Wiki. Solar magnetic activity proxies: blue = Be10 in Greenland ice core; red = Group Sunspot Number (conventional, Hoyt & Schatten 1998, same as yellow curve in Graph 1)
Lag varies ~100y +/- 20y with time (change in ocean circulation speed?) 4. Berkeley http:// berkeleyearth.org/summaryof-findings/ Global land surface temp. (thermometers)
~1700AD Lag ~120y ~1820AD
5. Jevrejeva et al. 2008. Global sea level (SL; tide gauges).
mm
6. https://sealevel.info/co2.html Atmospheric CO2 since 1800. Aligned on same time scale as temp. (Graph 4 above).
1837AD 1883AD 1800AD Lag 105y Lag 88y 1900AD 1942AD 1971AD
1900AD SL graph 5 is offset 20y behind 1920AD temp. graph 4
1900AD
The Sun’s modern ‘Grand Maximum’ (1937-2004), the first in >1,000y (see previous slide)
peak trough
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 6 of 10 = Figure 3. Published Holocene sea-level (SL) curves from a selection of geological & archaeological studies of tectonically stable localities worldwide, proving the global extent of Godwin’s (1943) Romano-British transgression (RBT; red box), a metre-scale SL rise that resulted in a higher-than-today highstand. Present-day SL; tilted in cases 1 & 2 due to subsidence (~1mm/y GIA), negligible in 3-6.
6000BP
(BP = years before ‘present’, i.e. 1950)
TIME
1. Godwin 1940
= Romano- 2. Greensmith & Tucker 1973 British transgression. Variable box width (age span) reflects 3. Fairbridge 1976 sampling gaps & radiocarbon-age uncertainty (Curves 2-5), usually +/- 100 to 200 years. For 4. Ramsay 1995 Curve 1 (1940, preC14), dated by pollen/varves & archaeology, age uncertainty is greater. 5. Walker et al. 1995
Sea level
5m
6. Bezerra et al. 2003
~350-450AD span of RBT, based on sum of global geo- & archaeological evidence
1000BP
England east coast stratigraphy (peat, clay). Godwin (1940) said his 2600-2000BP transgression (bold red box) could instead be late Romano-British, c.250400AD (see his Fig. 30 & p.293), later (1943) accepting this & naming it (1955) “RomanoBritish Marine Transgression”. SE England; cheniers Global geological & archaeological shore benchmarks; eustatic. See also my Slide 3. SE Africa, beachrock; subsidence negligible? (no published GPS?) Florida, shell middens; subsidence negligible. See enlargement, next slide. Brazil north coast, geological shore benchmarks (e.g. fixed biological indicators); subsidence negligible?
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 7 of 10 = Figure 4. Published Holocene sea-level (SL) curves from the Maldives (Mörner et al. 2007) & Florida (Walker et al. 1995), compared with Fairbridge’s updated (1976) global SL compilation. Both the Walker & the Fairbridge curve also appear in Figure 3; again the ‘Romano-British transgression’ (RBT; heavy red arrows) was evidently a eustatic SL rise exceeding 1m, resulting in a higher-than-today highstand. Age discrepancies are well within typical radiocarbon-age uncertainty (+/- 200y). Subsidence negligible in all three cases & effectively nil during the ~100y duration of the RBT (~350-450AD). 1. Mörner et al. 2007. Maldives atolls, C14-dated shells & peat. Further support for the redarrowed sharp SL rise comes from evidence (archaeological or historical?) that a temple thriving in AD 300-400 “seems to have been abandoned ... about AD 500”.
Sea level
5000 BP TIME BP (years before ‘present’, i.e. 1950)
0 BP (1950AD)
SL could have been lower Same SL rise as bold red arrow, based on earlier studies of beach-ridge geometry
2.5m
3. Fairbridge 1976. Global SL based on
2. Walker et al. 1995. Florida, C14-dated shell middens Sea level today
C14-dated geological & archaeological shore benchmarks worldwide.
~350-450AD span of RBT, based on sum of published global geological & archaeological evidence (see also my Tech. Note 2019-19)
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 8 of 10 = Figure 5. London archaeological evidence for Romano-British transgression (RBT) sea-level (SL) rise & subsequent fall. Much other British archaeological evidence exists (e.g. see my Technical Note 2019-19). 5th Century: ‘Anglo-Saxons’ (including Frisians, Jutes) fled to Britain from their homelands on Low Countries coastal plains to escape rising sea (Hawkes 1982) & pressure from hostile barbarian rivals in the east?
2
Mystery: Why did Londinium, on Thames estuary
incoming Anglo-Saxons establish Lundenwic new town, instead of settling in Londinium (vacated by Romans leaving Britain ~410AD), only 1km downstream & walled therefore safer from native Britons?
1
https://historyofenglishpodcast.com Wall of Roman empty Londinium, just 1km downstream
3 www.chr.org.uk
4
1 km
Explanation: After the ~3m RBT SL rise, high tide reached part-way up Londinium’s Roman defensive wall, preventing boat-beaching (cf. Tatton-Brown 1986 p.22; Cracknell 2005 p. 97). Londinium was thus unsuitable as a trading port until SL fell low enough, a century or more later. Among evidence for SL being so high ...
Steedman et al. 1992
Excavated still-erect ~300AD Londinium estuary-facing wall Hill et al. 1980
5
Thames Estuary
Lundenwic 5th-8th-Century new town & trading port, founded by Anglo-Saxons
Ayre & Wroe-Brown 2015
Flow-eroded notch ! Anglo-Saxons eventually did move into Londinium, 9th Century, after SL fell
2m
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 9 of 10 = Figure 6. World sea level (SL) since 1880, from tide gauges & satellite radar (NASA)
Tide gauges, 1880-2013 My red lines show averaged multi-year rate of SL rise is accelerating, in a step-wise manner. Latest sharp increase was 2011 (due to Antarctic glacier acceleration?; cf. â&#x20AC;&#x153;unexpected widespread glacier acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarcticaâ&#x20AC;? of up to 25%, some time between 2008 & 2015; Shen et al. 2018)
Satellite radar, 1993-2019
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100 Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 4-2-20) Slide 10 of 10 = Conclusions (repeated from Slide 2)
CONCLUSIONS • Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 accidentally • Warming will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM's 1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi) • The modern GM portends another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by ~2040 and ending by ~2100 (NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and glacier velocity; and accelerating world SL rise) • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) assertions supposedly incriminating man's CO2 emissions but disproven here include: - the Sun is unimportant in climate change - Holocene SL was never higher than now - no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm ("medium confidence" only) until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged ~30x faster). View publication stats