Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
Atmospheric Water Turnover The Primary Driver of Global Warming
By Walter Fiori, 5 April, 2021
Introduction
It was shown in the article, Variability of the Total Solar Irradiance, Fiori, W., 2021, available at academia.edu, that during the last 2.1 million years (MYs) the sun contributed, on average, an amount of residual energy that elevated the average global temperature (AGT) of the earth by 1.3° Centigrade (C)/MYs.
Recent direct measurements of the land-ocean temperature anomaly reported by NOAA showed that the rate of growth in the AGT was 0.17°C for the decade that ended in 2016 R16 . The 0.17°C per decade represents a value of 17,000°C/MYs.
The difference in the two values (16,998.7°C/MYs) is the rate global warming is accelerated by anthropogenic activities. It is a greater contributor to ocean warming than the sun’s insolation striking the surface of the oceans
It is proposed that:
“The current rate of global warming is caused by anthropogenic emissions of energy (in the form of heat) together with water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases into the biosphere from potential energy sources. The heat energy and water vapour resulting from their combustion or reaction enters the environment either directly at the source or after the energy is used to perform work. The anthropogenic emissions of heat stimulate the cycling time of the hydrologic cycle, causes the volume of atmospheric water turnover to increase and greenhouse gases (GHG) to add to the volume of atmospheric GHG. The stimulated hydrologic cycle increases water turnover, captures more of the heat in the atmosphere and takes it into the ocean heat store in a perpetual cycle as the earth warms.”
During a natural warming trend more heat accumulates in the ocean after each day/night cycle stopping only when the Total Solar Irradiance reaches its plateau value and a cooling trend begins.
Properties of water
The unique properties of water that have the greatest effect on the earth’s AGT and climate are heat capacity (specific heat), latent heat of fusion and latent heat of evaporation.
Water’s high heat capacity can capture and hold onto large amounts of heat. Warm water in the oceans is conveyed by water currents to cooler locations where it disperses but its warmth is also released by evaporation.
Water’s high latent heat of evaporation is the cause of heat transfer between bodies of water and the atmosphere. Water doesn’t have to heat to boiling point to evaporate. Evaporation
rates increase the warmer the water becomes until it reaches boiling point and completely converts to gas.
The acts of evaporation (absorbing heat as the water molecule releases itself as a gas from a body of liquid water) and condensation (releasing heat into its environment by applying the latent heat of fusion property of water) is what maintains temperature ranges and climate conditions about the earth.
Evaporated water climbs in the atmosphere and congeals. When congealed water vapour precipitates to the earth’s surface it absorbs heat as it melts and aggregates into a droplet of water. The warmer the atmosphere is, the greater is the heat the precipitation delivers to the oceans and land. The heat collected is principally in the biosphere.
Sources and volumes of evaporation
The water on the earth has an estimated total volume of 1,386,000,000 km³ R01. More than 96% of the water is contained in the oceans and is saline. The oceans cover more than 70% of the earth’s surface. Land has a relative finite amount of water that can be evaporated. Most of the evaporation comes from the surface of the oceans.
The hydrologic cycle is the mechanism that either captures and delivers heat to be stored in the oceans during a warming trend or releases heat to be dissipated into the universe during a cooling trend. The oceans are a heat store – acting something like a rechargeable battery. Heat is retained principally in the oceans’ epipelagic zone R02 that extends to 200m.
The earth’s atmosphere contains, on average, about 1% water vapour at sea level R03 but, according to the survey, Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey, 2nd Edition R04 , Wallace, J. and Hobbs, P., 2005, can range between 0 and 3%.
Cycles of evaporation (principally from the ocean) and precipitation (returning water to the earth’s surface) maintain a relative stable concentration of water vapour that is averaged across the earth’s atmosphere. The averaging process takes into account the varying levels of evaporation from tropical and cold climate ocean locations and land surfaces.
The paper, Hydrology R05, Marshall, S. J., 2013, refers to the water budget assessment by Trenberth et al in 2005 when they estimated that the atmosphere contained 12,700km³ of water (about 0.001% of the global quantity of water). Their estimate is in line with Shiklomanov, I.'s R06 1993 estimate of 12,900 km³.
Table 1 compares the volume of resident water in the atmosphere from three (3) sources to the year’s AGT anomaly.
Table 1 – Volume of resident atmospheric water vs the cumulative AGT anomaly.
Trenberth et al’s paper also relates increases in the annual rates of evaporation to increases in temperature and refers to a temperature based increase in evaporation of 5% during their period of assessment, concluding in 2005.
Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
In support of Trenberth’s statement, Marshall, in his article, states that the time for the volume of water to turn over (the evaporation-condensation-precipitation cycle time) in 2013 was, on average, 9.2 days. But qualified that it can be a shorter time particularly at locations that have a persistent high rainfall (a condition relative to temperature and access to surface water).
The decline in the resident atmospheric water from the three (3) resident atmospheric water assessments suggests that the higher the AGT the greater is the atmospheric water turnover and the less is the amount of water that remains resident in the atmosphere. The increase in the atmospheric water turnover captures heat and causes less heat to be dissipated to the universe during the earth’s night cycle. The AGT increases.
These factors, together with an increase in the frequency of the hydrologic cycle, due to increasing temperature referred to by Wallace and Hobbs, Trenberth and Marshall leads to changes in rainfall patterns and increasing land aridity (particularly in the mid-latitudes).
The temperature growth claim made in the above mentioned articles is corroborated by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data provided by NASA/GISS R07 that shows a calculated average growth in the average global temperature of 0.0168°C per annum for the period 1960 to 2016 as shown in Figure 1.
Further investigations into the turnover of water that have results referred to in the above claims relate to the changes in the proportions of land/sea precipitation.
The article, NASA balances water budget with new estimates of liquid assets R08, (NASA, 2015) states that the sun evaporated 449,500 km³ of water from the oceans and 70,600 km³ from soil and plants on land. 403,500 km³ of the evaporated water precipitated over water and 116,500 km³ over land. Of the water that precipitated onto land, 45,900 km³ flowed into oceans and 70,600 km³
The University of Illinois’ Department of Atmospheric Sciences diagram titled, The Earth's Water Budget R09 , 2010, presents data from the water budget survey by Peixoto, J. P. and Kettani, M. A., 1973 R10, that reported that there was 13,000 km3 of water in the atmosphere, 361,000 km3 of water evaporated from the oceans, 62,000 km3 evaporated from land and precipitation on oceans was 324,000km³ on land 99,000km³.
During the elapsed 43 years the resident volume of water in the atmosphere changed slightly (-2.3%) within the AGT increase (an increase of 0.74°C in 43 years) but the total turnover of water increased significantly in its volume by +22.9% as shown by the data of changes in precipitation between land and oceans in Table 2.
Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
Table 2 – Change in the water budget proportions of land/sea precipitation 1973 to 2015
The 1% change in the ratio of ocean/land precipitation between 1973 and 2015 may be small but it equates to 5,200km³ of water that precipitated into the ocean instead of land in 2015.
The 97,000 km3 of water added to the hydrologic cycle’s annual turnover volume of water is, on average, an additional 2,258 km3 of evaporation each year (6.2 km³/day).
Figure 2 shows the annual rates of water turnover for the years 1973 to 2015 graphically compared to the cumulative temperature anomaly based on the 2020 data set available from NASA R11 .
Lines of best fit were drawn for both variables and rates of change were determined for each line of best fit.
Water vapour increased at a rate of 2,258km³ p.a. The cumulative temperature anomaly increased at a rate of 0.0177°C p.a.
The relationship between the two variables was calculated by dividing the temperature anomaly rate by the water vapour rate. The calculation shows that the earth reduced the dissipation of its daily heat by 0.0078°C for every additional 1000km3 increase in water turnover during the 1973 to 2015 time base.
The data in Table 2 and the rate of change derivations in Figure 2 infer that:
The amount of atmospheric water turnover is directly proportional to the AGT.
An increase in the AGT alters the rainfall patterns by moving more of the rainfall to the oceans.
Land aridity results from the change in rainfall patterns.
The dissipation of heat to the universe is indirectly proportional to the atmospheric concentration of water vapour and other GHGs.
A summary understanding of the inferences state that:
“The process related to global warming is promoted by anthropogenic activity. As the AGT increases both the volume of water turnover and the frequency of the hydrologic cycle (the evaporation/precipitation cycle) increases. The increase in frequency reduces the time for
advection to take cloud masses to land before the accumulated water vapour precipitates. Rainfall patterns change and land receives proportionate less rainfall. Sunlight and anthropogenic activities heat the atmosphere and land during the day. Anthropogenic activity continues to emit heat during the night. During the night phase of the earth’s 24 hour day/night cycle the heat contained by the atmosphere is available for dissipation to the universe. The rapid evacuation of the accumulated heat to the Universe is arrested by the army of GHGs, principally water. The GHGs present as an insulation barrier to restrain heat loss. The restrained heat is transferred to the oceans by precipitation. The greater the volume of water vapour turnover in the atmosphere, the less of the sum of daily heat from the sun, earth’s state of warmth and anthropogenic sources is dissipated to the universe. The reduction in heat dissipation causes an increment in the AGT. The earth warms faster as the push-pull process persists day and night.”
The summary above does not preclude the build-up of energy in the oceans that manifest into extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes and cyclones or that advection has the possibility of transporting large quantities of atmospheric water, particularly in tropical and sub-tropical locations, to land locations where its precipitation becomes an extreme event.
World energy consumption
Humans have consumed increasingly greater volumes of energy during the last 47 years. The drive for energy has been caused by the introduction of a method of communal existence, advancements in technology and mechanisation, and the elevation of the standard of living, wealth and opportunity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Concurrent improvements in health and medical services together with improvements in the availability of food, clean water and waste removal (sewage) have increased longevity, reduced mortality rates and have promoted significant growth in the world’s human population. From 1973 to 2015 the world population has increased by 3.442 billion people to 7.358 billion, an increase of 88%, all needing a quantity of energy to support their survival. The advances could not have been possible without the availability and utilisation of energy. The consumption of fossil fuels used to create energy during the period 1973 to 2015 is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3 shows the consistent increase in energy demand from 1973 to 2015.
The following comments are related only to fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas.
Current thoughts relate to the emissions of CO2 as the GHG responsible for the radiative forcing of heat energy and the cause of global warming. CO2 is the product of combustion of carbon in fossil fuels.
What is often omitted from discussions about fossil fuels is that there are two (2) principle exothermic chemical reactions that take place when a fossil fuel is combusted.
The individual reactions between the carbon and hydrogen content of the fossil fuel when they combust with oxygen creates molecules of CO2 and water. The molecules are gases that, together with a part of the heat released in the exothermic reactions, are emitted into the atmosphere together with a small quantity of other gases and fine solid particles. The plumes of white smoke seen billowing from smokestacks from a power plant are not CO2 but water vapour (steam) together with other visible impurities. The CO2 is colourless.
Only a portion of the heat generated from the combustion of the fossil fuel is used to generate electricity or to produce motive force. The waste heat either accompanies the gaseous molecules emitted into the environment or is exhausted into waterways. Power plant boilers, internal combustion piston and turbine engines and domestic users each utilise fossil fuels, or the energy derived from fossil fuels, in different ways and dispense of the waste heat in different ways as well.
The volume of CO2 emitted is monitored and its concentration in the atmosphere is constantly measured. The emitted water vapour and heat is considered unimportant as these two (2) emissions are considered harmless.
Quantities of carbon dioxide and water released by combustion
A stoichiometric assessment of each of the fossil fuel types identified the relative mass of emissions of the two predominant compounds in fossil fuels, CO2 and water, when they are combusted. There was a complexity in conducting the assessment as each of the fossil fuel types have unique chemical formulae based on the variable molecular structure of the material. The approximated chemical formula for each of the fossil fuel types used in the stoichiometric assessment are:
Coal - approximated chemical formula used is C135H96O9NS
Natural gas - Contains a variety of volatile gases. The assessment is based on a natural gas mix composed of 92% Methane, 6.1% Ethane, 0.3% Propane, 0.06% Butane, 1% Nitrogen, 0.5% Carbon Dioxide and 0.04% of other gases.
Oil – Is the most complex of the organic compounds as, in addition to saturated hydrocarbons, contains paraffin in its various forms and aromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical formula used in the assessment of oil is C12H24 as it is representative of diesel, kerosene and petrol.
The result of the assessment was that:
Coal has a CO2 to water mass ratio of 2.30 to 1.
Natural gas has a CO2 to water mass ratio of 2.30 to 1
Oil has a CO2 to water mass ratio of 2.44 to 1
The average emitted CO2 to water mass ratio, across the three fossil fuel types, was 2.35 to 1.
The result was applied to the reported total emission of CO2 in 2019 (3.66x1010 tonne). The release of CO2 from the manufacture of cement was deducted from the total emissions of CO2 as they are not accompanied by emissions of water from the greater bulk of cement production. The results of the masses and volumes released into the environment are noted in Table 3.
Table 3 – Emissions of carbon dioxide and water in 2019 by mass and volume
The emissions table above does not include the volume of water vapour (evaporation) emitted from cooling ponds and waterways used by fossil fuelled and nuclear power plants or by domestic usage in the total emissions of water vapour because of lack of data.
The volume of evaporated water added to the atmosphere in 2019 from the combustion of fossil fuels is based on the calculated average CO2 to water mass ratio and the specific densities of each gas (CO2 density, 1.8360 kg/m3 and water vapour density, 0.7562 kg/m3).
The total volume of water as water vapour, excluding evaporation from cooling ponds and waterways, was 14,900km3 - a value about 2.6% of the evaporation from oceans and land.
Carbon dioxide and water emissions 1973 and 2015
The consumption of fossil fuels increased considerably after the recovery from the devastation of WWII as societies settled into a new era of well-being and technological advances.
The growth in the consumption of fossil fuels created several issues related to global warming with particular emphasis being placed on the growing emissions of CO2
An estimate of the magnitude of the CO2 and water emissions based on the energy consumption data sourced from the U.S. Energy Commission R12, 2016, and the Earth Policy Institute R13, 2013, for the years 1973 and 2015 in Figure 3 are listed in Table 4.
An average annual growth of anthropogenic water vapour emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels for the 43 year period was calculated at 233 km3 p.a. However, data indicates that the rate of water vapour release has grown at an accelerating rate from 2000 to 2019. The data for 2000 and 2019 shows that:
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by 11.4% (369 to 411ppmv) R14 .
The cumulative temperature anomaly increased by 120.9% (0.47 to 0.95°C).
The emissions of water vapour increased from 13,250 to 19,720km³/annum, an increase of 48.8% at a rate of 323.5km³ p.a.
Table 4 – Volumes of gaseous emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 1973 and 2015
The elements above are graphically shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4 shows that the atmospheric concentration of CO does not have the volatility of either the cumulative AGT anomaly data or the water vapour data although there is a direct relationship between the amount of CO2 and water released from the combustion of fossil fuels. It suggests that the CO2 variability is independent to both the variability of water vapour and the AGT anomaly.
It was previously noted that NASA reported 97,000 km3 of additional water turnover in 2015. The increased volume includes the 19,000 km3 of water vapour emitted (14.4km³ of water) from the combustion of fossil fuels.
The volume of water vapour and the heat it carries emitted during the annual combustion of fossil fuels initially applies itself to stimulate the increase in atmospheric water turnover but then dissipates in a manner similar to CO2 where the cumulative total of emitted CO2 is reduced to a rate of growth as per the green line in Figure 4. The measured atmospheric concentration of CO2 is always present as a barrier to the rapid release of heat to the universe.
It appears that the release of the three (3) primary emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, heat, CO2 and water vapour, jointly act as a catalyst that generates a consequent greater amount of evaporation from the earth’s surface once the heat is added to the ocean. For the period 1990 to 2019 it is estimated that an average annual emission of 393 Quadrillion BTU, 15,167 km³ of CO2 and 15,667 km³ of water vapour (there was also water vapour that was not accounted for as noted below) caused the atmospheric water turnover to increase at an average rate of about 320 km³ per annum and the average global temperature to increase by an average rate of 0.0024°C per annum.
Evaporation is not only released from the combustion of fossil fuels and the warming oceans and land, but an unknown quantity is also being released from other sources of anthropogenic activities. These are emissions of evaporation and heat from cooling ponds, vehicle exhausts, industrial and commercial processes and amenities, domestic needs such as heating, hot water, cooking and many other human activities that generate heat and water vapour.
Global water cycle
Articles such as Hydrology by Marshall, S. J., describe the hydrologic cycle as a process where water vapour is released by evaporation, transpiration and sublimation at the temperature that exists at the surface the water vapour is released from.
The water vapour rises in the atmosphere, condenses and forms clouds. The clouds are advected and eventually the water content precipitates in various forms and at various places.
Precipitations on land of rain and of snow and ice, once they melt, flow in runoff streams and groundwater discharges. Part of the water evaporates from the land and streams as it makes its way to the oceans.
The diagrams omit evaporation from biomass (including humans) and evaporation from the combustion of fossil fuels. The amount of evaporation from land animal biomass is relatively small - about 1 km3 p.a. (calculated) based on the mass of humans being greater than that of all wild animals combined as per the article The biomass distribution on Earth R20
Evaporation from both animal biomass and the combustion of fossil fuels are accompanied by heat. The inefficiency of the methods that generate energy by the combustion of fossil fuels or the reaction of nuclear materials creates waste heat.
In his presentation, Hydrological Cycle and Water Budget R15, (Siddique, M., accessed 2020), explains that about 90% of the atmospheric water turnover comes from evaporation and 10% from transpiration. He qualifies that evaporation isn’t only from water holding areas such as oceans and rivers but also from plants and animals. He correctly infers that the release of additional water by animal biomass is a minor consideration but excludes the significant release of water when fossil fuels are combusted. The significance is amplified because of the heat content of the water released.
Undoubtedly the sun is the greatest contributor to maintaining the earth warm and is the cause of global warming while the earth is in a natural warming trend. But the current rate of warming is also driven by human activity that adds both GHGs and heat energy to the atmosphere.
An example of emissions of heat energy, CO2 and water from a coal fired power plant are shown in Figure 5.
Each stage of the process, from the truck that delivers the coal to the plant to the power lines that take the electricity to consumers, contributes to emissions of heat, some accompanied by CO2 and water and some only water.
Emissions of CO2 and water carry heat with them when the gases are exhausted from the stack but heat is also radiated directly into the atmosphere from the machinery and plant that fossil fuels are combusted in. The steam exhausted from the stack is water at a temperature equal to or greater than 100°C. Radiated heat could be several times greater than 100°C.
Cooling systems, essential to keep machinery operational, also add to the emissions of heat used in the electricity production process. Water is an excellent absorber of heat and ideally suited to maintain equipment within specified operational temperatures.
In the example shown in Figure 5 the water cooling recirculation system draws cool water from a pond and flows it through heat exchangers where it absorbs unwanted heat. The warmed water is then exhausted back into the cooling pond where the exhausted warmed water will distribute its warmth into the pond and increase the rate of evaporation. Runoff
water will also disperse the heat into its surroundings where it is gathered by precipitation and taken to the oceans.
The example shown in Figure 5 is particular to a coal fired power plant but all potential energy fuels used to generate electricity release copious amounts of heat and evaporation into the environment from their plant and cooling systems. This includes nuclear plants.
Motor vehicles that are propelled by an internal combustion engine also have to operate within temperature limits. They are cooled either by a sealed fluid based heat exchange system or use the air in the atmosphere to capture the heat directly. Excess heat from either type of cooling system is emitted into the environment. In addition, the combustion of the propellant fuel creates emissions of water, CO2 and heat that are exhausted into the environment as well. Heat exhausted is well above the environmental temperature.
Few methods of generating energy from potential energy materials have an efficiency of more than about 35%. The remaining 65% of the energy is waste. The waste is the immediate heat emitted into the environment. Added to the waste is the transfer of energy as it is used to do work. All the anthropogenic energy generated results in it being emitted into the environment as waste. The waste energy promotes a reduction of heat dissipation. It unbalances the natural process of global warming by warming the atmosphere and elevating the rate of evaporation, the volume of GHGs and the amount of atmospheric water turnover.
The expulsion of water vapour directly from the combustion chamber of machinery, from the exhausts of cooling systems and from cooling ponds is not accounted for in either Peixoto and Kettani’s or NASA’s atmospheric water turnover data.
Comparing water’s heat capture capacity to carbon dioxide
Radiative forcing suggests that CO2 has the capacity to increase the AGT and has been attributed to the reason why the earth has had about a 1°C increase in the AGT over the last 120 years. In order to verify that CO2 is the primary cause of global warming it is important to assess which of the major GHGs has the greater capacity and repetitive mechanism to be the conveyor of heat into the oceans.
A comparison between CO2 and water’s heat capture capacity is shown in Table 5.
Table 5 – Comparison of heat capture capacity between water and carbon dioxide
Specific heat of water 4,180 J/(kg K)
Specific heat of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 300K 848 J/(kg K)
Water’s heat capture capacity 4.9 times greater than CO2
Atmospheric volume of water vapour 1.0000 %
Atmospheric volume of carbon dioxide 0.0425 %
Water vapour 24 times more abundant than CO2
Water vapour static heat capture capacity 116 times greater than CO2
Hydrologic system cycle time (2013) 9.2 days
Number of cycles of water vapour turnover 40 P.a.
Water heat transfer capacity compared to CO2 4,604 times greater p.a.
Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
The calculation shows that, in 2013, water was 4,600 times more efficient than CO2 at capturing heat in the atmosphere and, by way of the hydrologic cycle, transporting the heat to the oceans. CO2 has no mechanism associated with it that can do the same job.
CO2’s role, together with the other GHGs, including water, is to retain heat and reduce its dissipation to the Universe.
Emissions of heat
World energy consumption data obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2016 R12, with Projections to 2040, shows that in 2000 3.62x1020 joules of energy were generated from fossil fuels and projected that 5.39x1020 joules would be generated in 2020 (a 49% increase). All the energy generated is eventually released into the environment.
A measure of significance of the energy generated from fossil fuels is to compare it to the heat that the sun provides the earth. Many articles describe the sun as supplying the earth about 5.5x1024 joules of energy each year. The energy that humans are projected to generate in 2020 is less than 0.01% of the sun’s annual energy. The amount appears to be insignificant to the energy the sun provides. However, the sun has a very big job to do for its planets.
The amount of energy that humans produce can be compared to the value necessary for the sun to lift the AGT by 1°C (stated as 8.76x1021 joules in the article Variability of the Total Solar Irradiance, Fiori, W., 2021, available at academia.edu).
Comparing the amount of energy produced from fossil fuels in 2000 (3.62x1020 joules) to the amount necessary to elevate the AGT by 1°C shows that it is equivalent to the sun raising the earth’s temperature by 0.041°C. That is a significant amount of AGT increase and propels the earth into a very speedy path of global warming.
Fortunately the earth is exiting an ice age. Polar Region and mountain glaciation exists. They diminish the amount of heat that can be collected and retained in the oceans. Their absorption of some of the heat reduces the impact of anthropogenic global warming.
However, all indications and measures of both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent show that sea ice is reducing at an alarmingly fast rate. The Northern Polar Ocean is now considered navigable R24
Glacial ice calving and melting in both Greenland and the Antarctic is also increasing at a fast pace. Annual local temperatures in Greenland, the Arctic, Antarctica, Siberia and the arctic regions of Canada have reached unprecedented levels in recent years with, in a particular consequence, the rapid thawing of Siberia’s tundra and spontaneous fires of combustible material that was previously too cold to burn R21
The melting of sea and glacial ice presents as a major concern R22. At the moment the sea ice is keeping warm water that reaches it cool by absorbing heat as it melts. But the sea ice may not last much longer than the next 30 to 40 years at the constantly increasing rate of human energy consumption. Once there is no sea ice then the ocean waters will warm to the full extent of the heat that is delivered to them.
It indicates that there is little time left to arrest the melting of our cold regions that provide us the benefit of reducing the thermal impact anthropogenic activities have on earth.
Projections
A method of projecting the advancing rate of anthropogenic global warming was determined based on an understanding of the hydrologic mechanism that accelerates the warming and its measure, the annual AGT anomaly. The measure is as per The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data provided by NASA/GISS R07 (see Figure 1). A calculated rate of change in the AGT from the measure, and the number of years required for the rate to increase the AGT by 1°C, is shown on Figure 6.
Figure 1 shows two (2) AGT rates of change determined for the time periods 1900 to 1960 (0.0052°C p.a.) and 1960 to 2016 (0.0168°C p.a.). Other data points plotted on Figure 6 were used to determine a rate of change by using the same method.
More recent data on the annual measurements of the AGT anomaly were obtained from NASA/GISS. The 2020 data showed that the AGT has increased by 1.02°C R19 in the last 120 years.
It was difficult to determine valid data points for the period 1940 to 1975. There was a great variability in the temperature anomaly during this period of time.
The end of WWII was a period of rebuilding and, from that time to the 1970’s, also a period of nuclear weapon testing. Coupled to those factors were the changes in society, industry and the uptake of energy as it became more available.
The black line on Figure 6 represents the data points determined from the NASA/GISS data, the blue line represents the line of best fit and the green line represents the 2030 and 2040 projections.
Note that the following references to exacting values of the AGT in the following text are based on the dataset extracted from Dr C. R. Scotese’s Average Global Temperature graph, available at the Paleomap website as referenced in the articles “The Issue with Carbon Dioxide as the Primary Driver of Global Warming” and “Variability of the Total Solar Irradiance”, Fiori, W., 2021, available from academia.edu.
The scarcity of data points prior to 2016 made the assessment of the line of best fit difficult as the steep growth in the AGT appears to begin in 2010. The principle projections are based on
Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
the rate of increase in the AGT from 1960 to 2016 and the measured AGT cumulative anomaly as at 2020.
The increased AGT as at 2020 indicates a revised rate of change for the time period 1960 to 2020 of 0.0188°C p.a. This is 0.002°C p.a. greater than the rate of change in 2016. It represents a reduction of 7 years from the amount of time that it would have taken the AGT to increase by 1°C based on the 2016 calculated rate of change of 0.0168°C p.a.
The measure states that, today, the earth is warming at a rate almost 3% p.a. faster than the rate up to 2016.
A focussed starting point of 2007 was chosen for further investigation as it coincides with NOAA’s R16 report on the state of the climate that reported that the AGT had increased at a rate of 0.17°C in the decade ending 2016.
The total world energy consumption for the decade 2007 to 2016, 4.79x1021 joules, had the potential to increase the AGT by 0.55°C. The potential AGT increase can be compared to NOAA’s measured and reported increase of 0.17°C for the decade ending 2016. The difference of 0.38°C between the two values (69% of the 0.55°C potential growth) is the equivalent amount of energy that was absorbed by ocean waters, Polar Regions, mountain glaciation and dissipated to the Universe.
The 2020 calculated average growth in the reported temperature anomaly for the period 2017 to 2020 (0.0005°C p.a. on the base 0.0168°C p.a. in 2016) represents the change of 3.0% noted previously.
If the current rate of warming is maintained at the level it is today the data indicates that it will increase to 0.028°C p.a. by 2030 and to 0.0377°C p.a. by 2040.
By 2040 it will take 27 years to add 1°C to the AGT. That time will get shorter year after year as the AGT increases.
The AGT rate of change from 2020 to 2040 averages at 0.0282°C p.a. It states that the average time to increase the AGT by 1°C is 35.5 years. At this rate the AGT will be a little more than 2.25°C higher than it is today by 2100, but only if the advancing rate of warming is halted by 2040 and all the sea ice doesn’t melt.
The projected energy consumption in 2040, which has factors in it that include population growth, is 8.59x1020 joules. That equates to a potential increase in the AGT of 0.098°C p.a. (a potential to raise the AGT by 1°C in 10 years). Continual warming of the oceans, melting of glacial ice and heat dissipation to the universe will account for a part of that energy so it is unlikely to reach the rate of 1°C per decade. However, if the rate of energy consumption measured to 2040 continues into the 21st century, then it is within probability that the rate of warming will cause a 1°C increase in the AGT in a time of 20 years.
If humans allow the earth to reach such a state of warming then the AGT has a potential to rise by 3°C, or a little more, by 2100. This will cause widespread habitat destruction very quickly. Continuing with the accelerating rate will see AGT’s surpass 23°C by 2120. When this AGT was reached in the past it caused dramatic reduction in the world’s biomass and led to mass extinctions as the AGT reached and surpassed 24°C.
This is a strong possibility by 2150.
Conclusions
Humans have gained many benefits from the combustion of fossil fuels. They are a gift from a life event that did not have the immediate opportunity to recycle the scarce ingredients that subsequent life needed.
The assessment of the process that leads to global warming and climate change discussed in this paper have the following principal conclusions:
1. Water is the primary driver of global warming.
2. The hydrologic cycle is the mechanism that collects heat energy in the atmosphere and deposits it into the oceans.
3. Human combustion or reaction of potential energy materials are the heat sources that advance global warming through increased supplementary evaporation and high temperature radiations into the atmosphere.
4. Human contribution to the current rate of global warming is the driving force for more than 99% of the growth in the measured AGT anomaly.
5. Unrestrained, the current rate of advance of global warming will precipitate the earth to an AGT above 24°C by 2150.
Additional findings
Water’s capacity to transfer heat from the atmosphere to the oceans is at a rate that, in 2013, was 4600 times greater than CO2.
CO2 has no mechanism that can transfer heat from the atmosphere to the oceans with the efficiency of the combination of water and the hydrologic cycle.
The hydrologic cycle frequency increases the warmer the earth becomes.
The greater the frequency of the hydrologic cycle the greater is the loss of rainfall on land and the greater is the potential for aridity.
The greater the frequency of the hydrologic cycle becomes the less is the amount of water resident in the atmosphere.
Water’s heat transfer rate increases the warmer the earth becomes.
More water vapour than CO2 gas is produced when fossil fuels are combusted.
Waste heat from the combustion of fossil fuels accompanies the release of water vapour and CO2 gases into the environment.
Waste heat is all the energy released into the environment either as a consequence of combustion and conversion inefficiency or after being used in producing work.
Waste heat is radiated into the environment.
The measure of advancement in global warming based on water turnover is 0.0078°C for each additional 1000km³ of water turnover.
Water turnover from human activity is increasing at a rate of about 323km³ p.a. and today totals about 20,000km³ p.a.
Increased water turnover in the last 120 years is estimated at 130,700 km³ (1.02°C/.0078°C per 1,000km³ of water).
The current measured rate of advance of the AGT is 0.0005°C p.a. on a base of 0.0168°C as at 2016.
Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
The estimated average current rate of advance of the AGT for the decade ending 2030 is 0.00092°C on a base of 0.0188°C p.a. in 2020.
The estimated average current rate of advance of the AGT for the decade ending 2040 is 0.00097°C on a base of 0.028°C p.a. in 2030.
Today (March, 2021) the rate of advance of global warming is 1°C in 53 years.
By 2040 the rate of advance will be 1°C in 27 years.
Ocean water, sea ice and land and mountain glacial ice absorb a portion of the annual increase of human energy consumption.
There is a high probability that there will be no perpetual sea ice at the Polar Regions by 2070 at the projected rate of warming.
There is a high probability that human activities will warm the earth at a rate of about 1°C in 20 years once the sea ice is melted.
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Atmospheric Water Turnover - The Primary Driver of GW, W. Fiori, 5/4/2021
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