A German opinion after US Vice President addresses Munich Security Conference (2)
February 19, 2025
It‘s a very worrisome time. The Russian war in Ukraine has been a gamechanger and continues to be a huge concern for security in Europe and severely undermined trust in the reliability of international treaties. It‘s a slow and painful realization that we‘ll have to work a lot harder in Germany in the coming years to address a number of issues simultaneously that all have been neglected for too long - defense spending, infrastructure maintenance, social welfare (healthcare, pensions, care), education, industry, law enforcement… ouch.
And then the hateful lamenting of the AfD pundits, too loud now to tune out - adds to the pain. They have no solutions, blame everything on migration, feel wrongfully attacked by every question, and are spreading hate and misinformation (Hitler was a communist‘??? - these people are dangerous and not to be trusted).
Regarding JD Vance‘ talk in Munich, I didn‘t listen to the speech, only saw bits and pieces of and the reactions in the newspapers. I don‘t think anyone should have been surprised about what he said (and not said), Trump‘s not been hiding his views, though certainly the tone is new and not diplomatically veiled as usual. And in that way there‘s some semblance to the AfD style, unfortunately, and creates uncertainty regarding the shared values and reliability of the US-European alliance.
I mentioned the long list of issues the new German government will have to tackle. Focusing on defense for now, it‘s true of course that Germany has dragged her feet on ramping up dense spending. Why? I think there were several influences that prevented an earlier correction. When the wall fell in 1989, German reunification was not embraced at first by many European
countries, friends and partners now but enemies only 44 years earlier. The reduction in military spending, the "peace dividend,” was done not only to save a lot of money but also to avoid the impression that Europe‘s largest economy was aiming for military strength. In the 1990‘s that was a factor. In the following decade it was simply the cost. The budget was cut further and further. Then the NATO 2% GDP goal was committed to - and no action followed in Germany for years! That I think was gross and inexcusable negligence of our defense capabilities as well as of treaty obligations towards our NATO partners. We‘re at 2% now (finally) and experts calculate that more is needed in the coming years to close the current capability gaps. I hope the new government will set a priority there. Migration, energy and the rest - peanuts compared to the very real threat by a neo-imperialist Russia. Putin has to be stopped, and it will hopefully be done by Ukraine with continued and even stronger Western support. If they can‘t hold, it will be NATO allies next.
So yes, much to worry about. On the other hand, we still have a strong economy, a low unemployment rate, strong innovation - a decent foundation and ample opportunity to successfully tackle the many issues at hand in the new legislative period and beyond.
I hope my response isn‘t too Germany-focused - It is certainly influenced by the upcoming Bundestag elections this Sunday. Of course, other European countries not directly bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine should substantially up their support for Ukraine and EU defense capabilities too (Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland are doing their part already). And it‘s all still reliant on the US, not possible now without the US.
I conclude with the daily greeting of one of our news anchors: „und bleiben Sie zuversichtlich!“ - (stay confident)