Rational_Climate_e_book_2nd_edition - part 2 - edited by John A. Shanahan

The Rational Climate e-Book

Cooler is Riskier

The Extended 2nd Edition

Patrice POYET

The Rational2 Climate e-Book

Cooler is Riskier

The Extended 2nd Edition

Patrice POYET3

https://patricepoyet.org/ patrice.poyet.science (at) gmail (dot) com

October 5th, 20224

Version 2.28

1 CO2 is painted in its devil suit, with black Carbon and two red Oxygen atoms, but freethinkers hold that knowledge should be grounded in facts, scientific inquiry, and logic, see also (Jacoby, 2005). If you liked this work, in exchange for getting it for free, then please recommend it to ten people. You can also become a member or make a donation to support those organizations: cato.org cei.org ceres-science.com climatecite.com climatedepot.com clintel.org co2coalition.org co2science.org friendsofscience.org geoethic.com heartland.org jennifermarohasy.com notrickszone.com plantsneedco2.org saltbushclub.com scienceandpublicpolicy.org tambonthongchai.com thegwpf.org and for the French speaking readers the association of the climato-realistes.fr does an excellent job.

2 When scientific views come under political attack, so too does independent thinking and good policy-making because all require rational thought to be effective, (Legates, 2014).

3 https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Patrice_Poyet - http://independent.academia.edu/PatricePoyet

4 This e-book is under permanent on-going peer-reviewing. It also keeps being extended and improved. So, please refer to this date when communicating with the author so as to identify the version and help improve the document. Check regularly the website to ensure that you have the latest release

e-ISBN 978-99957-1-929-6 delivered by Malta's NBC/CPL National Book Council Central Public Library – Floriana - Malta

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To the young generations, with thecertainty thattheEarthwill be worth inheriting and that they will strive to make mankind's adventure even greaterandmorefulfilling.

How to cite this version of this e-book: Poyet, P., 2022. The Rational Climate e-Book: Cooler is Riskier. The Extended 2nd Edition, October 5th, 174 Figures, 261 Equations, 2432 references, 655 pp., e-ISBN 978-99957-1-929-6

3.6. The Net-Zero Authoritarian Dystopia

“The fight against climate change is incompatible with international tourism and many economic sectors. The measures that should be taken will be difficult to accept. It can be said that the fight against climate change is contrary to individual liberties and therefore undoubtedly to democracy” — François-Marie Bréon in an interview with a national French newspaper “Libération” (Coulaud, 2018)

3.6.1. Birth of a Dystopia

A dystopia is usually defined as an imagined state or society in which there is great suffering or injustice, typically one that is totalitarian or post-apocalyptic. Dystopias are characterized by rampant fear or distress, in our case coming from a looming impeding environmental disaster which has been progressively inculcated in the thinking of several generations from whom the capacity for scientific analysis and criticism has been progressively removed by eliminating mathematics of the cursus and anihilating their critical sense. Such a situation characterised by largely fantasized environmental collapse will justify tyrannical governments that in turn will lead as always to a cataclysmic decline in society and human well being. As for 1984 (Orwell, 1984) a date has been given for the disaster in the making, i.e. 2050 the net-zero carbon emission target. Let's see from where we start and how we sadly have a possibility of seeing the dystopia turn into a devastating reality.

But first, let's try to restore some basic calculating skills based on elementary physical laws that have been presented in this book. From the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) given by Equation 106, p. 110, has been easily derived by differentiation the Equation 173, p. 122, that can be used to evaluate the impact on the Earth's temperature of any flux imbalance (e.g. due to an increase of GHGs it is supposed that the OLR be reduced while the incoming solar flux remains constant at 240 W/m2), for a given ECS. If one wants to change the ECS value he / she wishes to use and derive the corresponding equations, it is very easy to do so. This will enable to select the ECS one considers the most reasonable, derive the constants to be used in the corresponding equations and make the calculations to get first hand values of the warming to be expected from such an ECS or TCR.

So, we need an ECS, let's chose one. From the computations we made that led to Equations 101 and 102 p. 96, we derived for a doubling of [CO2] a ΔF=3.23 W/m2, then using the best Radiative-Convective simulation software MODTRAN as seen Figure 135, p. 328 and given the results summarized in the corresponding Table, we got an ECS of 3.33 W/m2 for a doubling of [CO2] from 400 ppm to 800 ppm, we can also use values from the peer-reviewed literature, e.g. like Harde (2013) who gives ΔF=2.6 W/m2, or Schildknecht (2020) with a ΔF=2.6 W/m2, or other models of radiative transfer as per (Gervais, 2014) or Ollila (2017b) with a ΔF=2.2 W/m 2. Some values, like those given by Sherwood et al. (2020) could be considered as slightly higher but would not change the overall picture.

A simple average of these values will give 2.80W/m2, that will be conservative. The reader may use any other value he / she choses and will see that it does not change from where we start the dramatic journey to the future dystopian world. Given an ECS characterized by a ΔF=2.80 W/m2 and using equation 173, p. 122, that overestimates the ΔT because it only relies on radiative transfers and not on thermodynamical ones based on evapo-transpiration as explained p. 96 in order to derive Equation 102 and the corresponding ECS of only 0.48°C, one can immediately derive for a reference temperature of 288K a value of ΔT=(228/4) x 2.8 / 240 =0.84°C. Due to the downward trend of the ECS values observed over the last two decades as reminded by Gervais (2022) Fig 1.2, one should not be surprised to use a value < 1, actually no ECS value > 1 should be considered realistic. From thereoff, one can derive an equation that will give for any increase of the [CO2] the corresponding ΔT (ln is of course the the Neperian logarithm):

For such an ECS value of 2.80 W/m2 one can derive the value of the ΔF expected for any increase of the [CO2]:

Thus, given an ECS value that one can chose as what he considers the most reasonable one (here 2.80 W/m 2, but any other reasonable value can be used), it is not extremely easy but elementary to derive the corresponding equations that enable to compute the values of ΔT and ΔF for any increase of [CO 2], as given by the above Equations 260 and 261. This will enable us to compute various key starting points from which the climate hysteria leads to the dismal dystopia ahead.

Even though there is no reason to believe that the [CO 2] increase since 1850 would be entirely of an anthropogenic origin as was explained e.g. in section “A New Carbon Budget at a Glance”, p. 128, such an extreme assumption will be made to evaluate the worst case. Given that long before the industrial age in 1850, the [CO 2] = 284.7 ppm (supposedly as no IR measurements were available before 1958) and in 2021 there is a [CO 2] = 414.72 ppm, one can immediately derive that the contribution of CO2 to the observed warming since the end of the Little Ice Age is of a maximum of 1,21*ln(414.72/284.7)=0.45°C.

Let's state that clearly: the warming since 1850 due to the increase of [CO2] is of a maximum of 0.45°C.

Then let's figure out what is the warming that can be expected until 2050. First one should note that there exists a large inter-annual variability, that by the way in itself demonstrates that mankind cannot be the sole responsible for what is observed. Figure 22, p. 61, showed clearly that man-made emission in red have been increasing at an accelerated pace while annual ppm increase in dark blue have progressed at a very irregular rate that is not correlated to the emissions but to the temperature as explained in Figure 20, p. 59. But, again, let's go for the worst case and consider an high rate of 2 ppm increase per year (that could happen to be much lower or even reverse if the temperature was to cool and the Temperature Anomaly (TA) drop to -0.8°C, see Equation 34, p. 59), but let's see how much warming we will have in 2050. Using Equation 260, we get: 1.21 * ln [ ((28 years * 2 ppm) + 414.72) / 414.72] = 0.1532°C.

Let's state that clearly: without any reduction of the emissions the maximum warming in 2050 will be of 0.15°C.

This result is worth taking a pause, a great world reset of our entire economies, of our energetic systems, of our entire mode of living is envisaged because there could be, in the worst case, a warming of 0.15°C in 2050

Pinch yourself, check that you are well awake, we are talking about 0.15°C by 2050. Furthermore, the worst case is just the best case as a warming of 0.15°C is always better than a cooling of 0.15°C, because it will be explained later “Why a Warmer World is a Better Place to Live”, p 517.

CountryMtCO2/yr% emissions°C/yrUntil 2050

China1017528,36%0,00106840,0299145

USA528514,73%0,00055490,0155379

India26167,29%0,00027470,007691

Russia16784,68%0,00017620,0049333

Japan11073,09%0,00011620,0032546

Iran7802,17%0,00008190,0022932

Germany7021,96%0,00007370,0020639

Indonesia6181,72%0,00006490,0018169

South Korea6111,70%0,00006420,0017963

UK3701,03%0,00003890,0010878

France3240,90%0,00003400,0009526

Figure 169.Image of the calculated Table for the ECS of 0.84°C, that gives for each country its emissions in MtCO 2/yr, the % of the total emissions (35881 MtCO2/yr) that it represents, its annual contribution to the yearly warming and its contribution to the warming until 2050 if emissions keep going unabated until then.

To see how much each country contributes to such a dramatic warming we need to know the emissions per country and the impact of each ton of CO2 emitted. Then one can sum up everything in a table (see Figure 169) that will clarify your mind. Let's see: for 414.72 ppm in 2021, the stock of CO 2 in the atmosphere is 414.72*7.8=3,235 GtCO2. To

increase the temperature of 0.84°C (as per the ECS used), given the Airbone Fraction 646 (AF) of 40% used by IPCC (Jones and Cox, 2005), i.e. the percentage of the man-made emissions in % considered as remaining in the atmosphere, one can see that for a doubling of [CO2], one needs emission to be (3.235 1012 / 0.40) = 8.087 1012 tCO2. Then one can easily compute the temperature increase per ton of CO2 or per GtCO2. Simplifying, we have 8 1012 tCO2 that increase the temperature of 0.84°C, thus 1 GtCO2 will increase by (0.84 * 109) / 8 1012 = 0.000105°C/GtCO2, thus 1.05 10-13 °C/tCO2 We just need now the annual emissions per country, to see how much each country contributes on a yearly basis to the increase of the temperature and then how much each country will contribute until 2050, if emissions remain unabated.

What does Figure Figure 169 show? That China, India, Russia and Iran represent nearly half of the emissions (42.5%) and that they will, as many other developing nations, apply Napoleon's adage "Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake", they basically say that it is important to reduce emissions, but do nothing to reduce theirs while China has been building more coal-powered plants than ever, and not only in China but everywhere. In the meantime, France, for example, will destroy its economy, the way of living and the well being of its citizens to reduce, if its emissions were truly cut to zero by 2050, by less than one thousandth of a degree its contribution to the Anthropic Global Warming! The UK, if it were to continue its emissions unabated would contribute to 0.001°C and Germany up to 0.002°C. Of course, these values are well below measurement thresholds and they show how meaningless the net-zero 2050 objectives are.

Thus, once the very basic facts about the impact of mankind on global climate until 2050 have been reminded to the reader above and considering the deluge of cataclysmic words used to describe the climate crisis, the climate emergency, no, even a catastrophe of apocalyptic and biblical proportions such that McGrath (2021) forecasts for the BBC stating that “Climate change: IPCC report is code red for humanity” one knows that all nuts have gone loose and can logically deduce as O'Neill (2021) does that "It is the hysteria of climate change that poses the greatest threat to humanity” and further develops “These are just some of the hysterical claims that have been made in the discussion around COP26. As world leaders private-jetted their way to Glasgow for the latest UN gabfest on how to save the planet from mankind’s dirt, hubris and avarice, there was a severe outbreak of Climate Derangement Syndrome. Prime ministers, bishops, princes and noisy greens all tried to outdo each other with their apocalyptic warnings. It has been a grim competition of catastrophes, an orgy of hyperbolic prophecies that wouldn’t look out of place in the Book of Revelation.”

How could such a Climate Derangement Syndrome (CDS) develop to a point where it turns into a societal hysteria while more than half the countries will not reduce their emissions until 2050 anyway (if we add South Africa 479 Mt, Brazil 466 Mt, Mexico 439 Mt, Thaïland 288 Mt, Malaysia 250 Mt, Vietnam 248 Mt, Argentina 179 Mt, Philippine Islands 144 Mt, Chili 84 Mt with figures as of 2019), and when, if even cutting the emissions to zero by 2050, which is highly unrealistic, will prevent a warming of less than a thousandth of a degree for most G8 countries and of 0.015°C for the USA for the current cumulated future emissions for 28 years? Answering that question is difficult as it raises puzzling issues, that go beyond the madness of crowds (Mackay, 1841). It was exposed that many vested interest plan to take advantage of the delusion and this is of course a strong driving force. Beyond that, the birth of such noxious ideas can be traced back to two essentially wrong visions:

• The first is a Malthusian approach to the world, as Paul Ralph Ehrlich did in his time by publishing The Population Bomb (1968), The Population Explosion (1990), Optimum Human Population Size (1994), works which placed him among the few to have made forecasts invalidated by the facts for more than half a century. Curiously, this record has not prevented him from obtaining numerous prizes and awards, including the Crafoord Prize (1990). All of his ideas have been wrong to an extent that is beyond comprehension.

• The second is that the climate, which is an extremely complex system, could be "regulated" or controlled by a single parameter, i.e. CO2 concentrations. This is obviously very naive. Anyone, even in very bad faith, knows that applying the law of Myhre et al (1998) and adding a positive feedback from water vapor, results for acceptable values of ECS and TCR, only in a very modest warming by IR absorption of CO 2 on the 15µ band (the rest being already absorbed by water vapor). This was mentioned just above.

"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now."— Paul Ehrlich, the media’s leading environmental expert for 50+ years (1968)

646 The airborne fraction is defined as the ratio of the annual increase in atmospheric CO 2 to the CO2 emissions from human sources. It represents the proportion of human emitted CO2 that remains in the atmosphere, 40% is used as per (Jones and Cox, 2005).

Thus, expecting ministers, climate czars or ambassadors, mayors, judges, intellectuals, scientists, etc., to plan relevant actions on climate according to a soviet logic is a nonsense. Non only did communism never succeed to forecast the shoes' production that was always increasing while everybody was nearly going barefoot, but now they are going to regulate the climate, why not tides and more? Nigel Lawson647 was Secretary of State for Energy (1981-83) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1983-89). He is the Honorary President of the Global Warming Policy Foundation and author of “An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming” (2008). He summarized the situation saying that “ Net zero is a disastrous solution to a nonexistent problem”. Though not a scientist by training, Lord Lawson make a perfectly correct analysis of the madness of the situation and he suggested from the outset that the current climate scare is a quasi-religious hysteria and insisted that humanity seems to have a psychological need for a belief system. Christianity, which has played this role in the West for centuries, is losing ground in the modern world and climate catastrophism has effectively replaced it. Policies aimed at saving the planet will have no effect on the climate but will ruin the countries that were in a position to have a useful environmental action, to fight against pollution, overexploitation such as overfishing, immoderate use of mineral resources, etc. For anyone who just takes a few hours to figure things out, things appear quickly clear and obvious. It is therefore required to switch to social sciences to get some hints to what is happening.

Science is the search for the Truth as its etymology says in Greek, but as all dystopia are built on fake assumptions they must erase the truth or build alternative realities, based on pseudo-science while distorting facts. This process was studied by Magomedov (2021) who states “Whenever we think of impostors, we tend to think of liars. Yet impostures cannot be phenomenologically reduced to lies. Every lie presupposes a distinction between true and false, and it operates through a negation of reality, presenting falsity as truth and vice versa. An imposture, on the other hand, seeks to erase the distinction between true and false altogether. An impostor constructs a fiction that aims at substituting reality. In this process, an entire network of lies is put to work in order to attain the ontological status of the real. This results in a dynamic that deprives truths of their authority, while making untruths highly potent in terms of their capacity to produce effects”. This is exactly where we find ourselves, at the foot of the net-zero wall into which our economies will crash, for the simple reason that, even if it were really a requirement, there is neither a technological nor an economically viable way to achieve it.

Psychologists have some understanding of such situations. Uche (2011) asserts that “Human beings, regardless of race, religion or culture, are likely to embrace any belief that is absolute. This is because absolute beliefs are simple, easy to comprehend, and false positives that offer us a false sense of security”. CAGW belongs to that sort of absolute thinking, it is (rather appears) simple as carbon dioxide increases the greenhouse effect (not knowing exactly what it means fro most) and thus lead to an increase of the temperature, that everybody can observe (especially when series have been adjusted). Thus, the believer is rewarded by being obviously right against the “flat-earthers” and by belonging to the right group of people, those who will save the planet from the bad people those who want to continue emitting carbon dioxide, because they are reckless and do not care for their children.

The desire to belong to the right group of people is so pregant that even scholars like Tim Palmer, during the COP26, have lost their sense. Palmer has abandoned the reserve and wisdom that he had long shown to tip over into climate hysteria and predict Hell, forgetting that he had previously said in Palmer (2012) that our ability to predict the climate remained rudimentary. So what has changed since 2012, except that the group, the pack, the COP26 takes all the reasons in its path. Koonin (2021) is far more realistic is his assessment of the situation “ The uncertainties in modeling of both climate change and the consequences of future greenhouse gas emissions make it impossible today to provide reliable, quantitative statements about relative risks and consequences and benefits of rising greenhouse gases to the Earth system as a whole, let alone to specific regions of the planet.”.

This is where Uche (2011) reminds us that “The problem with absolute thinking is that it causes pain and suffering in the life of the person who adheres to an all-or-nothing attitude in any facet of his thought process. This is because the person is routinely exposed to contradictions to his beliefs, which creates a sense of threat to his world view. Eliminating the threat (canceling) brings about relief and even the canceling of any contradiction provides reassurance. This is why absolute thinking is the genesis of, among other things, genocides.”

When hearing statements that are universally absolute like: “the science is settled”, one knows that we are dealing with a cult, not science. Contradiction that should foster the scientific exchange to enable progress is crushed, people with

647https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Lawson

non conforming views are censored because they frustrate the mob of the believers (my LinkedIn account was closed for disseminating disinformation!), and the green fascism is no different from the brown or any other fascism, it crushed all that stand in its path because preserving the belief becomes the goal of the group despite all evidences proving that it does not stand scrutiny and cannot account for the reality.

It is why the governments’ statements about carbon zero and the road to zero emissions are dangerous. Because they’re absolute, allow for the demonization, and hence eradication of anyone that opposes this narrative. This means that most anything can be done in the name of these topics and escape scrutiny which would otherwise not be the case. Failed predictions that are just beliefs have plagued the entire history of the CAGW narrative, but the solution as for all fascism is to rewrite History for the production of shoes must have increased despite the fact that nobody can find any to buy not to go barefoot.

Censoring contradiction is a perfect recipe for a planned disaster, wasn't the official journal called “The Pravda”, i.e. the Truth (there can only be one in these authoritarian systems). One must acknowledge what has given strength and depth to our free and open societies: free speech. As long as what is expressed is not offensive to the other, it should be possible to express one's view.

So many scholars have nice quotes addressing that:

“I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” ― Richard P. Feynman

"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein

"If speculative ideas (climate catastrophists claims) can not be tested, they are not science; they don't even rise to the level of being wrong." Wolfgang Pauli.

“When scientific views come under political attack, so too does independent thinking and good policy-making because all require rational thought to be effective” (Legates, 2014).

Leon Festinger was already mentioned in a previous section dealing with “Cognitive Dissonances” and note 556, p. 449. He analyzed that when observable facts contradict a belief, the ideologue or prophet of doom does not question himself but instead develops an increasingly extreme and proselytizing speech. The slogans become empty shells, accompanied by insults and threats against the miscreants, the deniers. By displaying his faith, each follower reinforces the faith of others. So much the worse if the speech and the analysis lose all contact with reality, only the survival of the belief matters. This is what I experienced on LinkedIn, thanks to them for closing my account, this gave me my time back to write this second edition. The proponents of the CAGW conjecture was for them an absolute truth that one could not challenge nor discuss and they had very well-honed activist strategies, asking for your credentials when they had none, having some sort of ready-made answer for any point of contention kind of like if they had done telephone support, like problem X type Y, etc., with ready-made references. They were not interested in exchanging ideas or improving their understanding, they were essentially engaged in defending their belief, whatever it meant.

The amount of resources the climate tribe has is disproportionate to those that other non aligned scientists can resort to. Beyond the fact that you cannot get a grant if you do not conform with the dogma and must work on shoe string budget or no budget at all, grants and donations flood the well conforming universities and laboratories. We do not talk about individual 10$ gifts, but of 1.1 billion as for recent Doerr's donation, see e.g. Gelles (2022) “ The gift establishes the Doerrs as leading funders of climate change research and scholarship, and will place Stanford at the center of public and private efforts to wean the world off fossil fuels”. What's amazing is that neither the donors nor the report do not embarrass themselves with making it look as if it were still science, the objective is not to better understand the complex Earth-system, magnetosphere and dependencies to the planetary environment and solar connections, no the objective is “to wean the world off fossil fuels”.

If this is undoubtedly a massive donation, the second ever, one must keep in mind that research is the tip of the climate cult cartel as the world bank estimates that a minimum of 89,000 billions USD will be required by 2030, not counting to what is planned for the net-zero 2050 fantasy. Astronomical figures that are tossed have been nudged up to 150,000 billions USD, and one really wonders how badly they are going to be wasted as the total of the last column Figure 169, is less than 0.14°C for the entire world knowing that half of the countries will not embark on the road to economic death. The citizens would certainly fare much better off having kept these monies for their well being instead of being

stolen one way or another through complex taxation schemes of their hard earned savings to let our great leaders appear as the benefactors of this brave new world.

The climate cult cartel does not support the contradiction any more. Dissenters are fired or let go, the sooner the better when they approach retirement, publishing anything that upsets the narrative is made harder than ever and if published never sure not to be retracted as happened to Richet (2021) with his paper published on 26 May 2021 then retracted on 10 September 2021 without other reason than to have upset the French IPCC's representatives or to Zharkova et al. (2019) published in Nature scientific reports on 24 June 2019 to be finally retracted on 04 March 2020 based on spurious arguments that were contested by three of the authors 648. Social medias have been put under Artificial Intelligence (AI) surveillance and resort to immediate sacking of your posts if you do not align. Pseudoscientific organizations with blatant vested interests, as all their participating members make a living one way or another pushing the AGW narrative and fable649, dare fact-check what one posts and one always risks to be removed from the social network if he does not comply with the doctrine, better called the terms of services. I talk first hand experience. Furthermore, e.g. LinkedIn promote the Center for Countering Digital Hate, who beyond their normal woke business, attack directly the most fundamental freedom of speech that must be granted to scholars and researchers.

There are countless obvious examples of such baseless censorship practices, let's provide one here: https://www.johnstossel.com/ https://www.johnstossel.com/climate-feedback-response/

As if never enough, dissenters, deniers and contrarians of all sorts must be listed in files, monitored and they must be denigrated, ridiculed, threatened and if not enough some nuts like the Australian-born Professor Richard Parncutt can even go as far as claiming that deniers or heretics like Freeman Dyson and dangerous similar ones, should get the death penalty. If things keep going that way, the climate cult cartel and the climate church will have similar organisations to the former inquisition650 and and will have nothing to envy them. On the road to these delirious ideas, some people get very decent funding whereas they most of the time lack the slightest scientific training in particular in Earth or atmospheric sciences, and they are commited to making the narrative compliant by all means by “Documenting and Responding to Climate Disinformation at COP26 and Beyond” as per King et al. (2022) that really gives a chill in the back, going as far as identifying their targets, i.e. the ‘Repeat Offender’ accounts with names such as Peter Imanulesen, John Stossel, Michael Shellenberger, Bjorn Lomborg, Tony Heller, Patrick Moore, etc. The 116 pages long report is just a long list of coercive methods to enforce the CAGW narrative, ensuring that the recalcitrant will be brought to heel.

The worst thing is that the IPCC has the gall to complain about the politicization of science, it is the pot calling the kettle black. Climate science is and has been politicized since the IPCC was launched after all, that's the very mission of an organization that tells what science should be according to a UN mandate and that makes science be validated by the nations and government representatives participating to the scheme. Not one scientist, not a single one can accept that science be promulgated by governments, Royals, autocrats, kleptocrates, crony capitalists, bureaucrats, NGOs, affiliated research organizations that follow the governments' line of thought to keep their funding alive and the nomenclatura that fly jets from one COP to the next. They are laughing at you, can't you see that?

And now the IPCC want you to believe that they are the victims of the very system they have enforced by all means. In February 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took an unprecedented step, citing mis- and disinformation and the “politicization of science” as key barriers to action. King et al (2022) report “ For the first time, a document accepted by all Member Governments stated that rhetoric from “vested economic and political interests… undermines climate science” and in turn has driven “public misperception of climate risks and polarised public support for climate actions”. The diagnosis was explicit, and built on a growing body of evidence produced across the environmental and research sectors in recent years: to solve the climate crisis, we must also tackle the information crisis. aftermath of COP26, we have clear evidence of the challenge at hand: the failure to stem mis and disinformation online has allowed junk science, climate delayism and attacks on climate figures to become mainstreamed. Our analysis has shown how a small but dedicated community of actors boast disproportionate reach and engagement across social media, reaching millions of people worldwide and bolstered by legacy print, broadcast and radio outlets. Far from helping to mitigate this issue, tech platform systems appear to be amplifying or exacerbating the spread of such content. Moreover, the taxonomy of harm relating to climate mis- and disinformation has been poorly defined to date,

648https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3 and retractation: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-61020-3 649https://climatefeedback.org/community/ 650https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inquisition and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Inquisition

providing an inadequate basis for response”. As one may wonder what are the trainings of the authors of the King et al (2022) report's authors to spot people like me, whose LinkedIn accounts must be closed for propagating misinformation, let's remind the credential of these persons.

Jennie King is Head of Civic Action and Education, leading efforts to translate ISD’s digital research into frontline programming and response. She co-authored the current ‘Be Internet Citizens’ curriculum, formally accredited for UK schools, and provides regular briefings for UK government departments and regulators, UNESCO and parallel European/US bodies on systemic approaches to media literacy. Jennie also oversees ISD’s growing portfolio on Climate Mis- and Disinformation, supporting a coalition of 30+ organisations worldwide to identify, analyse and counter related harms. Her writing and commentary has been featured by the BBC, The Guardian, Channel 4 News, Tortoise Media and NPR, amongst others. Jennie previously served as MENA Regional Director Arts, Assistant Country Director Egypt and Country Director Hungary for the British Council, the UK’s international body for cultural relations . She read Arabic and Spanish at Pembroke College, Cambridge, receiving a Foundation Scholarship and the Marie Shamma’a Frost Prize for Oriental Studies.

Does not look like Jennie knows much about Earth sciences, atmospheric physics, climate science ore anything related. Perhaps she had somme support from her second co-author. Let's see.

Łukasz Janulewicz is an Analyst at ISD, focusing on climate disinformation in Poland and Germany. He previously worked at the Polish Institute for International Affairs (PISM) in Warsaw, the Central European University in Budapest and the Bavarian State Parliament in Munich. Łukasz graduated in Political Science from the Ludwig Maximilian University Munich and holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Kent.

If there is some junk science around, without a doubt, it is IPCC's. Let's see. One wonders on which basis Łukasz will identify climate mis-information, perhaps the third authors has at least elementary knowledge about Earth-sciences? Let's see.

Francesca Arcostanzo holds a PhD in public opinion, political communication and electoral behaviour from the University of Milan, a MA in Government and Public communication, and a MSc in Intelligence & ICT. In her PhD dissertation, she developed and tested a method to investigate the modes and extent of EU politicisation in national election campaigns relying on social media data. Prior to joining ISD, she was a Digital Communications Specialist in the Web and Digital Division of the European Central Bank, monitoring and analysing conversations, disinformation and threats around the ECB and its policies.

Those are the people who tell us that science has been politicized and who are going to enforce the newspeak (Orwell, 1949). How could science be otherwise than politicized when one looks at their credential s and cursus, the only thing they have ever been involved in is politics!

Let's remind in a few sentences here how IPCC is the main culprit of the politicization of climate science. The leak of the Climatic Research Unit's (CRU) emails, i.e. “Climategate651” from the University of East Anglia (UEA) showed how disingenuous were the relationships of these supposedly prominent scholars to science and how far the collusion went to prevent anyone from airing contradictory views and evidences. For anyone who wishes to see how far these deleterious practices went, Costella (2010) is a must read that shows that no attempt by the universities concerned to self-whitewash their own staff of their misconducts will ever succeed in erasing their awful malpractices whatever wikipedia and others can write.

The stain on Science will remain, it's just indelible as Harold Lewis pointed it out in his resignation letter from the American Physical Society652 (APS) “It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist Anyone who has the faintest doubt that 651https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Climategate

652Lewis (2010) “I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club. Your own Physics Department (of which you are chairman) would lose millions a year if the global warming bubble burst. When Penn State absolved Mike Mann of wrongdoing, and the University of East Anglia did the same for Phil Jones, they cannot have been unaware of the financial penalty for doing otherwise. As the old saying goes, you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I’m not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question.”

this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (...) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist. (...) In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity” (Lewis, 2010).

Then in the wake of such a baleful effort of the accomplices to clean the spill, appeared some blatant errors in the IPCC AR4 report (IPCC, 2007a), most notably a claim that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035, an affirmation that turned out to completely lack any scientific basis, e.g. (Bagla, 2009), (Cogley, 2011) and led to a contorted apology of the Chair and Vice-Chairs of the IPCC, and the Co-Chairs of the IPCC Working Groups (IPCC, 2010). Even if the railroad engineer Pachaury, who only recruited scientists complacent with the CAGW thesis, endorsed willfully these delirious forecast, one could argue that one mistake can always happen. Wait, it is not just one mistake but a full stack of failed predictions that the IPCC must be accountable for. This is this pile of crap, of unbstantiated claims of dubious affirmations that has politicized science, not a small group of people of integrity who are horrified by these nauseating practices and who speak out against them.

Let's have a look at the latest SPM (IPCC, 2022a) and see how rigorous it is. To make a perfect start, it is claimed:

p. 29 “D.1.1 This Report reaffirms with high confidence the AR5 finding that there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause. Each 1000 GtCO2 of cumulative CO2 emissions is assessed to likely cause a 0.27°C to 0.63°C increase in global surface temperature with a best estimate of 0.45°C”. That's a very impressive statement as one can hardly see how a physical phenomenon that has been known as having a logarithmic response to the increase of CO 2 concentrations since Arrhenius (1896, 1903) and accepted as such by IPCC themselves, see Myhre et al. (1998), would have suddenly become nearly-linear according to the very wording of the SPM (IPCC, 2022a). Unless the projected rise of anthropogenic emissions would follow an exponential growth over all Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarii, i.e. SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, which is not the case, see Abram et al. (2019) Fig. SM1.1, there is no way to observe a “near-linear” curve. Furthermore, whatever the scenario considered, the response is always supposed to be the same, “near-linear” as stated by IPCC. Thus, that's simply an enormous blunder, a gaffe of epic proportion, that shows that no scientist, not one has really reviewed that material, otherwise the enormity of the statement would have immediately jumped to the reviewers' eyes. Equations 103 and 104, p. 110 correspond to Myhre et al. (1998) and a complete demonstration is provided that leads to Equations 129 p. 112 and 150 p. 115. If you have a logarithmic process and want to linearize it by wizardry, ask IPCC's SPM team, they will do that for you with a strike of a pen. This is utter non sense. They are just like their fellow climate software modelers, they live in a world of their own far from reality. Let's summarize: unless the future scenarii project an exponential increase of the anthropogenic emissions, which they do not, there is no way to get a “nearly-linear” graph. How many hundreds of scientists to produce that SPM?

But that's just the start of the unlikely physics of IPCC, version 2022, because the graph that accompanies this amazing D.1.1. statement, i.e. Fig. SPM.10 p. 28 (IPCC, 2022a) is also very well worth spending a couple of more seconds looking at. Beyond the sudden and magic linearization of a process that is known as logarithmic to all physicists and scientists, it strikes immediately that over an unspecified period along the X axis “Cumulative CO₂ emissions since 1850“ and just under the label “Historical global warming“ one can obviously see that more than 600 GtCO2 would have been added at some point (if anyone can tell me to what it corresponds I'll be grateful) with a negative effect on the temperature as it declined of nearly 0.4°C.

No scientist, not one, could have let such an odd observation go unnoticed and unexplained, but IPCC's SPM team prefer to paste their dubious projections at the end of their temperature series that have already been adjusted. Just going back to the figures that everybody has, one remembers that over the period 1940-1980, man-made emissions have increased by more than 300%, jumping from 4.85 GtCO2 (1940) to 19.80 GtCO2 (1980), and that the overall atmospheric content rose from 2,421 GtCO2 (1940) to 2,644 GtCO2, thus an increase of 223 GtCO2 (not 600 GtCO2 !) while the temperature decreased as shown Figures 28 and 29, p. 69. How can a causality be asserted when a massive increase of 223 GtCO2 over four decades induces a direct temperature decrease? (IR absorption properties of CO2 in the lab are well known, but this is not the subject, here is discussed the Earth's system at large and its complex response mechanisms).

Let's see how these [CO2] increase should affect the temperature according to IPCC's (2022a) own logic. Given A.1.1. and its very bold statement that no evidence supports, i.e. that Man is responsible of all observed [CO 2] increase since

1750 (e.g. ruling out the contribution of the warming oceans as per Henry's law), and accepting it for the sake of the exercise, we also learn that by IPCC's (2022a) admission, the Airborne Fraction is 44%. Thus, taking that figure, of the 37GtCO2 emitted in 2019, there would remain in the atmosphere only 16.28 GtCO2

“A.1.1 Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities (…) Land and ocean have taken up a near-constant proportion (globally about 56% per year) of CO2 emissions from human activities over the past six decades, with regional differences (high confidence)”.

So, using D.1.1. and A.1.1. one can immediately compute of how much the total 2019 man-made emissions have contributed to increase the Earth's temperature: (0.45 ± 0.18°C) x 16.28/1000 = 0.0073°C ± 0.003°C. Given that the threshold of measurability of a change of the Earth's temperature, with the best techniques available to us in 2022 is at best 0.07°C, one can see that the catastrophic change forecast is just ten times too small to be measured and detected by whatever available means! Thus, following IPCC's own line of reasoning and data, the maximum warming to be expected until 2050 is 0.205 ± 0.08°C, slightly above the sum given for all the countries in Figure 169 (far right column), of 0.15°C. It happens that, curiously, Figure SPM.10 shows twice as much, i.e. 1.25-0,84=0.4°C, then a set of fantasy scenarios are pasted at the end, i.e. (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).

• Let's now consider Fig. SPM.1 b p. 6 (IPCC, 2022a), one can see from a minimum around 1965 to a maximum in 2020 a reported temperature increase of 1.25°C (to which the massive natural 2018 El Niño made a great contribution). Over the same time period (1965-2020) the atmospheric [CO 2] increase has been of 730 GtCO2, i.e. (3,226.86 – 2,497.25)= 729.61≈730 GtCO2. Again, let's use IPCC's (2022) own figures and calculate how much warming one can expect from that: (730/1000) x (0.45 ± 0.18°C) = 0.33 °C ± 0.13°C. As the reported increase of temperature for the same period is of 1.25°C, this leaves 1.25-0.33=0.95°C unexplained (even using the high TCRE used by IPCC), or rather accounted for by the natural variability, thus 75% of the 1.25°C reported since 1965 are due to the natural variability and 25% are due, at maximum, to an anthropogenic contribution. In reality less, because all [CO2] increase has been attributed to an anthropogenic origin and a maximum TCRE used, as per IPCC. Based on an advanced energy-radiation-balance model Harde (2022) assess a maximum CO2 contribution at 1/3 of the observed warming. This conclusion is exactly the same that is reached using other means of evidence by Andy May (2015) after studying two 35 year periods of warming of a total record of 136 years, i.e. 1910 to 1945 and 1975 to 2009. Based on the differences observed between the reference period where man-made influence is considered inexistant (1910-1945) and the second period (1975-2009), May (2015) concludes “The increase in the rate of warming from the HadCRUT record is 35 years x 0.0048°C or 0.168°C [between the two periods] (…) The actual temperature increase from 1975 to 2009, from the best fit line to the HadCRUT record, is 0.672°C. So using our estimate of man’s contribution of 0.168°C, we can estimate that man’s contribution is 25%”. The A.1.1 statement is falsified.

• Thus, this falsifies the statement A.1.3. in the SPM: “A.1.3 The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C. It is likely that well-mixed GHGs contributed a warming of 1.0°C to 2.0°C, other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C to 0.8°C, natural drivers changed global surface temperature by –0.1°C to +0.1°C, and internal variability changed it by –0.2°C to +0.2°C”. GHGs contributed up to 0.33 °C ± 0.13°C as per IPCC's own calculations, thus a mere 25% - at most – of the warming reported and internal variability accounted for 75% of the changes as seen just above. Furthermore, even with very high and unrealistic ECS such as those used by Delworth and Knutson (2020) of 3.4 K, the authors are embarassed as they have to acknowledge that “ If the climate sensitivity were smaller, then one would need either larger internal variability or additional radiative forcings to capture the early 20th century warming”. It seems like the high ECS was just chosen in order to minimize the natural variability and even with such a dubious choice, Delworth and Knutson (2020) must say “our results demonstrate that the combination of GHG forcing, sulfate aerosols, and internal variability could have produced the early 20th century warming, although to do so would take an unusually large realization of internal variability”. Thus internal variability cannot be as per A.1.3 in the IPCC (2022a) range [–0.2°C to +0.2°C] and thus the A.1.3 statement is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.1.5 is also at least partially falsified: “A.1.5 Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019 (decreases of about 40% in September and about 10% in March). There has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 due to

regionally opposing trends and large internal variability”. Glacier have been melting long before the industrial age and e.g. Trutat stated in 1876 «Since I have been exploring the Pyrenees, I see the glaciers melt before my eyes and in the Lys valley and in the area of Oo, they are receding at a frightening speed » (Trutat, 1876) as reported by (René, 2011). Then one wonders why, if man-made emission are responsible of the decrease of the Arctic sea ice, the melting would have stopped over the 1989-2009 period during which emissions jumped from 22.43GtCO2 yr-1 to 31.77GtCO2 yr-1. Obviously as explained in the section “The Arctic”, p.261, other phenomenons are at work. Then claiming that there “There has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020” is simply falsified by all measures and observations, as visible Figure 109, p. 255, where Antarctica's monthly sea ice extent anomaly as per https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index shows a +0.8 ± 1.1% increase per decade over the period (1979-2020). Parkinson (2019) states “Still, when considering the 40y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 km2·y−1, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014”. If the observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are responsible for melting the poles, both should react similarly, which is not the case, Antarctica's sea ice has vastly extended until 2014. The A.1.5 statement is at least partially falsified.

• Then, the statement A.1.6 is also falsified: “A.1.6 It is virtually certain that the global upper ocean (0–700 m) has warmed since the 1970s and extremely likely that human influence is the main driver. It is virtually certain that human-caused CO 2 emissions are the main driver of current global acidification of the surface open ocean”. With respect to the acidification of the oceans, there is an entire section that falsifies that claim, see “The Myth of the Acidification of the Oceans“, p. 275 and with respect to the warming of the upper ocean with IR radiation, whatever the source, it is a physical fantasy as the depth to which IR radiations penetrate the water and the oceans in particular is is micrometric, see discussion about the Ocean Heat Content (OHC), p. 239. The OHC has increased because the albedo has decreased (Goode et al., 2021). The A.1.6 statement is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.1.7 is also falsified: A.1.7 Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018. The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr–1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr –1 between 2006 and 2018 (high confidence). Human influence was very likely the main driver of these increases since at least 1971. The first observation is that IPCC acknowledge a mere 20cm SLR over 117 years, thus a tiny 1.7 ± 0.4 mm per year. We are very far from the meters or sometimes even tens of meters of SLR that deceptive reports and media put forward. Then, using longest data serie available (207 years), from http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.data/1.rlrdata, Figure 98, p. 231, shows an increase of +200mm in 207 years and +150mm over 1910-2015. The alleged acceleration is falsified, among others, by Jevrejeva et al. (2008), Figure 99, p. 232, displays the evolution of the rate of the trend (black line) since 1750, showing a very strong multi-decadal variability (basically the 60 years oceanic oscillation). The blue line is the sea level rise acceleration of the trend over 1730-2000 of 0.01 mm/yr2 and has remained constant since we have measurements. This shows the non-sense to spend 89,000 billions as per the World Bank to pretend to stop a 5 mm SLR since 2050, that can only be compared to a ripple on the sea. This statement A.17 is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.2.2 is also falsified:

“SPM A.2.2 Temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent multicentury warm period, around 6500 years ago [0.2°C to 1°C relative to 1850–1900] (medium confidence)”. This is falsified by all observations reported in section “Is the Modern Optimum Special?”, p. 522, but also by Figure 3, p. 14, where reconstructed temperature for the Holocene (11,700 years) are displayed left, with the HadCRUT4 dataset as an insert on the right and corresponding variations reported at scale onto the Holocene graph. The total T anomaly reported is 1.1°C in between 1840 and 2020 (whereas the regression just gives 0.91°C), after Brown (2018a-b) modified. The Holocene is reconstructed with incontrovertible data from (Alley, 2004; Vinther et al., 2009). This statement A.2.2 is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.2.3 is also falsified:

“SPM A 2.3 (…) Late summer Arctic sea ice area was smaller than at any time in at least the past 1000 years (medium confidence). The global nature of glacier retreat since the 1950s, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years (medium confidence)”. Just

back for the period 1928-1938, Alekseev et al. (2015) reconstruct values of the Sea Ice Extent (SIE) than are comparable to current minima, as per their Fig. 3.b “reconstructed September SIE in the Arctic from 1900 to 2013 and (2) observed SIE for 1980–2013”. The warming in the Arctic during the early 20th century is described by Polyakov et al. (2003) and the Arctic warming began in 1915, with an increase of about 1.6 C between 1915 and 1940 and the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet provides an additional line of evidence for the Arctic warming and in that respect, Fig. 5 of Fettweis et al. (2008) clearly shows that the SMB was lower in the 30's than now. Furthermore, Erik the Red (see note 143) who sailed to Greenland and started the Greenland Saga with 25 ships in 985CE, calling it the “Green” “Land”, were they could develop their agricultural practice for more than 4 centuries before that the climate reversed, would certainly not have sailed over there with more summer Arctic ice than now. As far as the glaciers are concerned and visible Figure 55, p. 144, the great Aletsch glacier (Switzerland) also strongly suggest cycles of around 1000 years; before our era, around the Iron/Roman Age Optimum (I/RAO) (aka the Roman Warm Period) between 250 BC and 400 AD the glacier was somehow shorter than today, and around 1350 BC – 1200 BC i.e. Late Bronze Age Optimum (BAO) the glacier was 1000m shorter than today as per Schafer (2018), graph after Holzhauser et al. (2005). The A.2.3 statement is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.3.1 is also falsified by recent observations: “A.3.1 It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver of these changes”. As recently as Jan 7, 2021 at 5:19 a.m the mercury dipped to minus 34.1 degrees Celsius at Clot del Tuc de la Llanca in Aragon in the Spanish Pyrenees, the lowest ever temperature recorded on the Iberian Peninsula. A recent heavy snowfall occurred in Beijing on Nov 7, 2021 with dreadful weather and there have been many record low temperature early January 2021 in China as well with other recent cold blasts, e.g. in 2008 and Hongyang (2021) reports about the January 2021 event “The cold blast will continue across China, as Beijing recorded -19.5 C on Thursday morning, the lowest temperature since 1966, meteorological authorities said”. But as the saying goes, lunatics try to take over the asylum, thus you always find an expert, here Bing Zhou, Chief Scientist of Science Communication653 at the China Meteorological Administration's National Climate Center, who explains us that “the cold snap and global warming, two seemingly opposing facts, are not contradictory because global warming does not appear evenly, and triggers more extreme heat and cold.” as per Chi (2021). One should also let Zhou know that he should tell IPCC that according to him there will be also more extreme cold and not as per IPCC's A. 3.1. less frequent and less severe cold extremes, because with his statement Zhou is also falsifying IPCC's A. 3.1. In fact, they say everything and their opposite. No doubt that global warming will even manage to produce global cooling when the climate will naturally reverse course, and a lot more than that as global warming is indeed a very powerful political tool. When it does not work too well, rename it climate change, climate disruption climate urgency, climate bla, bla and and the magic trick will be played. Back to the point A. 3.1, is there a need to remind the reader the dramatic cold spell that left dozens of people dead in Texas alone, mid-February, 2021 as displayed on Figure 142, p. 348? The A.3.1 statement is falsified.

• Then, the statement A.3.4 is also falsified by IPCC themselves!:

“A.3.4 It is likely that the global proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclone occurrence has increased over the last four decades, (...); these changes cannot be explained by internal variability alone (medium confidence). There is low confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of allcategory tropical cyclones”. One should note that IPCC falsifies this statement with “It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. There is medium confidence that there will be a reduction in the number of extra-tropical cyclones averaged over each hemisphere” SREX, p.13, (IPCC, 2012). The A.3.4 statement is falsified.

• Then, more importanty the statement A.4.4 is also falsified:

“A.4.4 The equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important quantity used to estimate how the climate responds to radiative forcing. Based on multiple lines of evidence, the very likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity

653http://bcc.ncc-cma.net/experts/item/46 and email:bingz@cma.gov.cn to get an explanation of how global warming will lead to cooling. If people freeze in Bejing it is because the Arctic is warming! “The Arctic is warming two to three times as fast as any other place on Earth, said Zhou, adding that the polar vortex – a rotating pool of cold, dense air – weakens as the temperature goes up, pushing the cold Arctic air southward”. So, according to that logic, the Chinese should pray for an ice-age that should trigger a welcome warming in Beijing. Doesn't that sound logic? Ask Zhou.

is between 2°C (high confidence) and 5°C (medium confidence). The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C (high confidence), compared to 1.5°C to 4.5°C in AR5, which did not provide a best estimate”. After 43 years since the Charney et al. (1979) report, what an irony to see this essential concept remaining as uncertain as ever. The downward trend showed Figure 31, p. 88, is a real chill on the ECS, and has kept going on with recent publications, e.g. (Coe et al., 2021). It is well demonstrated by Fig 1.2 p. 52 of Gervais (2022) that no value higher than 1°C for the ECS is reasonable and higher than 1.5°C is irrealistic

As explained with Equation 102, p. 96, involving evapo-transpiration and convection leads to halve the result down to less than 0.5°C! But dismissing more than a hundred papers published in international journals showing low ECS, the IPCC has embarked on a solitary route based on CMIP6 models that show massive standard deviation across models as visible on Figure 136, p.337 and that deliver values that have been rejected by all. Such a SPM A.4.4 (IPCC, 2022a) is also contradicted by the classic, well tested and comprehensive “Radiative-Convective Models” presented p. 328 that for a doubling from 400 ppm to 800 ppm lead to a ΔT°C=1,03°C for a ΔF=+1,12%, and finally they are rejected by the opponents of the CAGW theory, e.g. (Scafetta, 2021c), those who are neutral observers (Pielke and Ritchie, 2021a-b) and more remarkably even by those who have supported the CAGW theory for decades (Hausfather et al., 2022). The A.4.4 statement is falsified.

Lindzen (2019) also precludes any sensitivity above 1.5°C “The situation on with respect to climate sensitivity is that we basically see no reason to expect high sensitivity. The original basis for considering that high sensitivity is possible (namely, the hypothetical water vapor feedback of Manabe and Wetherald, 1975) is clearly contradicted by the measurements of TOA radiative fluxes which show that the total long-wave feedback, including cirrus cloud variations, may even be negative. Analysis of the temperature data leads to the conclusion that if anthropogenic contribution are the cause of warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, and if aerosols are limited to a contribution of 1 Watt per square meter, then climate sensitivity in excess 1.5°C is precluded” .

Richard Feynman, began one of his Caltech lectures with the following statement: “The exception proves that the rule is wrong. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong.”. How many falsifications does the IPCC need? Feynman taught us that one is more than enough.

In fact this SPM (IPCC, 2022a) does not come even close to a scientific document as I could go on and on like I have done above for nearly every statement it contains. It is a collection of imprecise and often unfounded assertions that sadly surfs on the confusion between weather and climate in a pernicious logic aiming at scaring the leaders and the public. How can that be? It is very simple and properly amazing that IPCC may come with a complaint relayed by their paid zealots that science has been politicized.

IPCC actually politicized science, they destroyed the most precious thing humanity had, i.e. a hard-won path to the truth with the scientific method and they have intentionally created this awful situation and now enforce it by all means as described by Happer and Lindzen (2022), based on the own description by IPCC of their processes, i.e. sections 4.4-4.6 of (IPCC, 2013b) and (IPCC, 2013c) “The IPCC is government controlled and only issues government dictated findings (…) Unknown to most, two IPCC rules require that IPCC governments control what it reports as “scientific” findings on CO2, fossil fuels and manmade global warming, not scientists. IPCC governments meet behind closed doors and control what is published in its Summaries for Policymakers (“SPMs”), which controls what is published in full reports”.

The politicization of science by IPCC relies on two rules:

• IPCC SPM rule n°.1: all summaries for policymakers (SPMs) are approved line by line by member governments as bluntly explained in (IPCC, 2013c) “Approval is the process used for IPCC Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs). Approval signifies that the material has been subject to detailed, line-by-line discussion, leading to agreement among the participating IPCC member countries, in consultation with the scientists responsible for drafting the report.” also see sections 4.4-4.6 of (IPCC, 2013b-c). Happer and Lindzen (2022) rightdully conclude “Since governments control the SPMs, the SPMs are merely government opinions. Therefore, they have no value as reliable scientific evidence.”

• IPCC Reports rule n°. 2: government SPMs override any inconsistent conclusions scientists write for IPCC Reports. This simply means that IPCC reports are re-written to match governents' opinions expressed in the

SPMs. As explained in (IPCC, 2013c) “’Acceptance is the process used for the full underlying report in a Working Group Assessment Report or a Special Report after its SPM has been approved.... Changes ...are limited to those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers.”. Thus, this second IPCC rule requires that everything in an IPCC published report must be consistent with what the governments agree to in the SPMs. Any drafts that the complacent scientists who participate in this masquerade write are nevertheless rewritten as necessary to be consistent with the SPMs. The enforcement of rule n°. 2 to make pseudo-science comply with political objectives is poignantly demonstrated by the IPCC’s rewrite of the scientific conclusions reached by the scientists in their draft of Chapter 8 of the IPCC report Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change (“1995 Science Report”). The entire dismal story of the Chapter 8 that shames science and infuriated Seitz (1996), is then addressed by Happer and Lindzen (2022).

So not only science is rotten to the core, politicized as Hell, but IPCC have the gall to complain about it. Scientists learn to doubt, know that nothing is never settled, but IPCC teaches them at least one certainty, that what these people do can't be right otherwise they would do it differently.

Figure 170.Science made by IPCC during a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) writing meeting (Lynn, 2016). In February 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took an unprecedented step, citing mis- and disinformation and the “politicization of science” as key barriers to action. King et al (2022) report “For the first time, a document accepted by all Member Governments stated that rhetoric from “vested economic and political interests… undermines climate science”. Who politicized and trashed science? It is the pot calling the kettle black!

When extraordinary claims are made, such as the CAGW conjecture, a weak hypothesis that supposes that a 0.01% change in the global atmospheric composition due to an increase of a trace gas would derail the climate of the Earth, one must provide for extraordinary evidences. Not only they dramatically miss but nothing adds up and makes of the narrative a true political story or rather a matter of faith. A new religion has emerged, the climate cult, with its CAGW god, its devil the CO2 scapegoat, with its clergy enforcing the orthodoxy of the doctrine, the inquisition with their fact checkers that are only as good as their illusory faith but work round the clock to destroy the heretics, their cohorts of believers and a few crusaders.

Simply scary, isn't it? as it shows the madness of mankind, the madness of the crowds, the madness of the fanatics of the climate crusade.

As reminded to us by MacIntosh (2022) “Facts and realities are what typically bring societies back to some sense of rationality. Mao’s China never gave up on attempting centralized farming because debate and discussion resulted in their thinking to themselves, “My oh my, this doesn’t look good, perhaps we were wrong in our assumptions.” No, they starved tens of millions of people first and only when the evidence was absolutely overwhelming and the hysteria had burned itself out there was the ability to chart a different course”, the same happened with Lysenkoism (see note 627, p. 487) and the millions who starved to death in Ukraine and across all communist countries that had adopted that pseudo-science.

Politicians are regularly tempted to make the scientific truth a matter of a legal decision voted by whatever “representatives” and enforced by inner party members or vested interests, we've seen that with eugenics, with various agricultural reforms that abysmally failed and now the climate is supposed to obey the whimsical desires of our

political geniuses and aligned scientists who illustrate so well the saying of Upton Sinclair " It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it".

In an Op-Ed, Soon and Markó (2017) wrote in response to the president of MIT, Professor Rafael Reif's letter regarding the US withdrawal from Paris climate agreement “There is no science unambiguously establishing that CO2 is the chief cause of the warming observed since the end of the Little Ice Age. The opposite has been repeatedly demonstrated. (…) Professor Reif’s assertion that global temperatures can be regulated by an international agreement to atone for our sins of emission is, therefore, at odds with scientific knowledge regarding cause and effect. King Canute’s warning to his English courtiers in 1032 A.D. that even the divinely anointed monarch could not command sea level should be heeded by bombastic intergovernmental agencies a millennium later. The professor’s assertion is, moreover, logically invalid, since the Paris agreement permits China and India to industrialize without limit on their emissions”.

Soon and Markó (2017) also remind us that “Doubt is the seedcorn of science. Consensus is a political notion which, when pleaded, indicates that the pleader is totalitarian”. The green plague as the brown or any other plague and totalitarian attempt will end up unleashing massive opposite forces for the simple reason that they are contrary to logic, evidences, progress and well being of mankind. Facism, communism, totalitarianism whatever the color, be it red, brown or green always ends in the ditches of History for it is a disgrace to intelligence and common sense. It can take time, some survive longer than others, but fortunately all end the same way, in a catastrophic failure with massive human pain. The engineered ESG disasters start to pop up as in Sri Lanka (see p. 405) and give a hint to what is next.

As a matter of fact, the Anthropic theory in its catastrophic version (CAGW) is now entering a new phase and is aligned with all previous totalitarianism: dogma, indoctrination, and censorship with a good dose of propaganda.

The irony is that this anti-science posture, claiming things settled, refusing to debate, attacking people (arguing about their credentials) and organizations (scrutinizing their funding) and refusing to discuss their arguments or their absence of evidence, is proclaimed in the name of science!

What could go wrong?

“It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong.“ - Voltaire

3.6.2. Acceleration of the Dystopia

Things seem to be speeding up: in May 2019 the UK Parliament has declared climate emergency, and in June 2019 NYC also declared a climate emergency. New York City Council passed a legislation, calling for an immediate response to the global climate crises; the bill referenced several reports on the state of global warming and its impact, imparting that extreme weather events brought about by rising temperatures demonstrate that the planet is "too hot to be a safe environment"! Data from Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF, 2020) show that more than 670 ruling bodies in 15 countries have declared climate emergencies654. Nobody can ignore the catastrophic narrative trend.

If there is any emergency, it is to debunk this crazy fantasy that climate would have reached a tipping point that would require to destroy our economies to avoid a catastrophe. Understanding how the climate has changed, from the distant glaciations a billion years ago to the most intriguing and mind-boggling «green Sahara» some 6.5k years ago, has always been one of the most challenging and intellectually rewarding endeavor of the geologists. Paleoclimate, coming along with paleogeography, distant plate-tectonics motions and associated orogeneses have always fascinated earthscientists and I remember as a student reading those reconstructions as fantastic stories that could only be matched by the space-time journey that astronomy offered.

I would never have imagined though, 40 years ago, that by means of a strange hysteria hyper-focusing on just one of the so many parameters driving the climate response (a harmless trace gas, i.e. CO2, the concentration of which has just increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution by hardly more than 100 ppm, i.e. 0.01% of the atmospheric total composition) and by resorting to mass conditioning of the population thanks to a host of activists relayed by onesided media, that we would have reached a tipping point; not the supposedly irreversible climate change but one that will inflict incommensurable damage to our economies, industries and standard of living. Our great leaders are going to ruin the prosperity of their own people for a second class theory, which is hardly more than one of the so many possibilities to be considered and that ranks low into the very long list of factors that can and have changed the climate. Furthermore, one should remember that the climate has always changed and quite a lot, on all timescales without any anthropic influence whatsoever. What a disaster looming! There is so much at stake with the planned punitive measures envisaged (i.e. taxes, regulations and more) to enforce a fantasy.

Up until 2007, some sort of opposition still could exist and make itself heard at the time the UN climate conference in Bali met strong opposition from a team of over 100 prominent international scientists, who warned the UN, that attempting to control the Earth's climate was ultimately futile. "Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and pressing problems," the letter signed by the scientists read. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon did not answer nor met any of those scientists but argued «that global warming poses as great a threat to the world as modern warfare», and he vowed to make reduction of greenhouse gases655 (GHG) one of his tenure's top priorities. Ban's nickname was jusa ( 주사), meaning "the administrative clerk" and was probably well deserved as without any scientific training and no desire to listen to another perspective he took sides and he committed himself to making the IPCC’s agenda move on. These times when some opposition could be voiced are gone (Morano, 2010), unfortunately, and it has been harder and harder for people dissenting to exist as they have been discredited, threatened, fired or silenced. In any case, do not expect the UN to accept some future responsibility in disastrous climate change policies outcomes; e.g. when a lawsuit challenged UN legal immunity on behalf of Haitian cholera victims (UN peace keepers from Nepal are said to be the source of the 2010–13 Haiti cholera outbreak), Ban declared that the legal immunity of the United Nations before national courts should be upheld.

Does it make sense to write one more book on the subject in 2020? Probably not! Will it change anything? Most probably not! So what? In the end it will come down to individual responsibility, each scientist will have to chose side and I do not want to share the blame for the self-inflicted damage and impoverishment of the young and future generations by the insane policies that will be enforced. The doom-sayers, the alarmists have to know that beyond the short term glory and comfortable means that their crusade bring them, they might not be alive when they will have to face their horrendous legacy on a longer term, but that they will not be forgotten nor forgiven, except for those who

654This very classical logical fallacy is known as “Argument from adverse consequences” something must be done a certain way or before a certain date or else there will be adverse consequences (Sagan, 1995-1997).

655The term atmospheric greenhouse effect or “greenhouse gas” appears to have been first coined by Ekholm (1901)

have truly deceived and deluded themselves in trusting their computer models, believing that they had come close to some sort of reality even though they knew that they had had to «reduce» their input data so much in order to try to make their computerized fantasies somehow match in hindsight the observed reality as it keeps unfolding in ways that their dire predictions did not account for.

Albert Camus said in the Plague (1947, p. 151): «it is not a question of heroism in all this. It is about honesty. It's an idea that can make you laugh, but the only way to fight against the plague is honesty».

Each one of us who disagrees must voice his / her concerns and not be worried of the disparagements that will inevitably come along, not underestimating the violence of the priests of the new religion. Of course, what I’m going to write has no chance to be published going through a peer-reviewed process656 and will probably lead to ad-hominem attacks, but until the dreams of the crusaders come true, and they manage to censor the Internet of any dissenting opinion as «fake news», I will make use of the possibility to honestly develop and prop-up my thoughts and make them available to the widest audience possible. I do not claim to detain any certainty but when there remains so many doubts about what influences the climate, when knowledge is still so much in its infancy - and any scientist being honest should and could acknowledge that - it is a mere folly to enforce brutal choices by political means, that will hurt the most and mainly the poor who hardly make ends meet, by increasing the cost of energy.

Then early 2020, the world was struck by the COVID-19 virus whose origin remains uncertain and controversial (Relman, 2020; Rogin, 2021; Harrison and Sachs, 2022). But even before some clarification could be brought to that matter, if ever, world leaders and some influential billionaires had already announced what would be the next and even more expensive economic devastation, climate change policies and “decarbonation” of our economies. These perspectives are far worse than a transient virus misery, as lasting measures will be enforced and enacted based on the gloomy forecast of climate change software projections, that are impossible to check and that have compared very poorly so far with real instrumental satellite measurements performed with microwave sounding units 657. Catastrophic software scenarios predicting an uncontrollable climate greenhouse runaway that would lead to ecological disasters, ominous sea level rise and millions of refugees and deaths, all supposedly due to an increase over two centuries of 0.01% of the atmospheric share of a totally harmless trace gas, have served to predict all sorts of calamities and to scare to the bones the populations that are under the relentless indoctrination of the mass media. Worth noticing is that starting with the threat of a return to an ice age in the early 70s 658 that shifted to the global warming scare, such climate calamities have been foretold for 50 years now (Rasool and Schneider, 1971; Schneider, 1989) but have, by chance and for good reasons, never happened as reported by Ebell and Milloy (2019) and will most probably never happen.

In the midst of this COVID-19 man-made disaster I started, as a geophysicist, geochemist and computer scientist, to painfully resent the ludicrous harping of ecologists, alarmists, NGOs and supranational bodies of the UN all well funded with tax-payer monies, and even of talking heads from the showbiz publishing columns in mainstream media to be read by millions of gullible readers to make them feel guilty to just try to make a living for themselves and for their families and to the forthcoming requirement for them to resort to a more frugal way of living “to save the planet” when they themselves have probably not ever experienced what it means to make ends meets. As a geologist it was pretty clear that climate had always changed on all timescales and had not needed mankind to demonstrate its whimsical nature, as a computer scientist I had long known that sophisticated programs can more or less say whatever the software developers have designed them for (plus the garbage in garbage out syndrome with tuned or even forged data) and even in a sometimes poorly reproducible way according to the too often met CACE paradigm (Changing Anything Changes Everything) and finally as a geochemist I had been wary of the supposed evidence (chemical and physical) that were explaining everything based on overly simplistic assumptions (radiative absorption by one scapegoat gas) and

656In line with Michaels (2011), one must acknowledge that in “the intellectually inbred, filthy‐rich world of climate science, where billions of dollars of government research money support trillions of dollars of government policy”, peer review has become a joke. Alas, and beyond the climateindustrial complex, we have all heard of the “crisis of reproducibility,” but science is broken far beyond that. The peer-reviewing process has shown its limits and various papers address the issue and are enlightening in that respect (Ioannidis, 2005; Smith, 2006; Young et al., 2008; Michaels, 2011; Laframboise, 2016; Van Noorden, 2021).

657See https://www.drroyspencer.com/ updated monthly, e.g. May 2022 https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/06/uah-global-temperatureupdate-for-may-2022-0-17-deg-c/

658Among many other references “The last major glacial period ended about 10.000 years ago. Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an "ice age. " in Hugues (1974) p. 5, representing NOAA's position backed by Frederick B. Dent, Secretary of U.S. Department of Commerce of the time with Stanley B. Eames, NOAA Director, Public Affairs.

furthermore that were not to be discussed as the consensus would not give you a chance to make your job as a scientist, i.e. wonder and assess the soundness of the arguments.

President Obama’s advice to this year’s graduates «you can’t just accept what the experts and the people in charge tell you» was spot on and I could not accept to be a silent accomplice of the future destruction of western economies for a witch hunt without going in depth: 1) into the relevance of the brandished scientific « proofs » arising from so many disciplines as climate science is just an illusion but resorts to a bunch of well known disciplines as chemistry, physics, geology, astronomy, biology, to name a few, 2) the relevance of computer models mainly based on fluid mechanics equations which are unable to make a decent fifteen day forecast but will – based on the same physical principles and technology – tell you the average temperature a century away, and 3) the delirious policies that will be implemented to fight the enemy, nothing less than the gas of life, the gas which has enabled in the end all living species on this planet to exist. One should never forget that irreplaceable and widely available fossil energy sources together with nuclear energy have simply enabled mankind to move out of the cave and improve living conditions on earth as never imagined before!

It does not require a lot of fiction effort to imagine that epistemologists, around the end of the XXI century, will report that the «Climate Fiasco» was a large scale deception attempt initiated by a U.S. politician twice elected vice-president, who once took a class with an oceanographer and global warming theorist, and decided to embark on a crusade to save the world. Sticking to the wrong causation, namely that CO2 was responsible for the increase of temperatures, whereas it was the other way round and contrary to all evidence already available at the time, the growing flow of public funds into conforming universities and research laboratories, the threatening and dismissal of opponents, the hijacking of review committees of most prestigious journals, and the use of the powerful bureaucratic machine of the UN, all led to a massive disinformation of the public and a global scare of dissenting scientists. The stifling by all means of other opinions reminded of the worst years of Soviet science under the leadership of Lysenko and enabled the Climate tinkerers to declare victory through «consensus» and «science settled», not even realizing the inanity of their claims as they infringe the very basic historical foundations of science.

By the years 2010, their dire predictions of warming and related calamities not happening, they changed the creed from global warming to climate change. Of course, as every scientist knew that climate had always changed and on all timescales, that was a major discovery at little risk of being invalidated or challenged. This could enable them to hasten their agenda by promoting CO2 not only to the status of a pollutant (which will amaze scientists for the centuries to come) but to declare carbon (the basis of life) the enemy to defeat by all means, including enacting legislation around the 2020 that would promote a zero-carbon economy. These catastrophically ill-founded decisions led to a shift of wealth from Europe and the U.S. to Asian nations, that unwittingly benefited directly of the self-suicide of the West, though certainly not profiting of the global trade reductions that fighting the harmless CO 2 had led to. The Chinese, who had understood the sacred alliance formed by real science and capital as revealed to the world by Adam Smith (1776) observed incredulously the way the western public opinions had been manipulated and deceived and the way these societies were to return to relative poverty. Africa had become the main raw material provider of China and more globally Asia and had done well by changing its customers. On the other hand, and as prophesized by Markovsky (2016), “America and the West did not defeat communism, they adopted it”, while the former Asian “communist” countries, keeping their development strategies immune to the CO2 hysteria reached new standards of living that had only been known before by the West.

History will tell at the end of the XXI century, that even though at some point of the natural cycle that had started at the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) temperatures had gone past the medieval optimum, it was already pretty clear that the climate was cooling and that a reversion to the means was to be considered, many being worried again of a return into an ice age. In the meantime, the AGW delirium had come to an end and became known as Al Goreism (like Lysenkoism) a joke with «Algorithms» reminding us that computer programs, based on dubious algorithms, had cost mainly western societies trillions of dollars, wasted in meaningless «research» which confusing cause and effect had misled mankind in extraordinary proportions and generated incredible punitive policies to achieve decarbonization, as if CO 2 were a demon. Unfortunately, real problems had returned and reminded us that one should never take a good life for granted and that it only results of hard work and proper investments, the sacred alliance of science and capitalism, be it for an individual or else at the level of societies. Among other new and real challenges had appeared a whole ensemble of bacteria resistant to any sort of anti-biotherapies, which had made even the simplest surgical operations nearly impossible and had reminded us of the harshness of the fate of Napoleonic era soldiers who could just see their legs and hands chopped away for minor wounds. Earth had taught us the hard way that it has a life of its own and that we had been foolish to believe that our «activities» could thwart in any way the course of such a grand design, the

Creation. Mankind was a derisory part of it, competing for a place to keep alive in the grand scheme of things, and the fable about a frog who wanted to become as big as an ox, had been sadly forgotten.

This document tells this bemusing story, of how as early as 2020, an attentive observer could have had all the cards to forecast, not the critical sea-rise levels, the death of the corals, the exponential rise of the temperature that will never happen, but the self-destruction of the western economies and major shift to a new world order dominated by Asian nations for the century to come.

Science has always been in a difficult position «Eritis sicut Deus, scientes bonum et malum» as the first biblical mention of science occurs in the story of Eve’s temptation by the Serpent and must help separate the Good from the Evil. Succeeding in this endeavor should not be taken for granted. Let’s make a try at it.

Moral of the story: given the large databases developed during the XX and XXI centuries nothing will be forgotten and only those who have been genuinely and honestly mistaken will be forgiven. The others should bear the brunt of infamy for the lasting millennia when mankind will have to fight with the return of the next ice-age.

The graph displayed in Figure 171, shows monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. As we've already seen, the carbon dioxide data on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Keeling et al., 1976). The last five complete years of the Mauna Loa CO2 record plus the current year are shown. The red lines and symbols represent the monthly mean values, centered on the middle of each month. The black lines and symbols represent the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle. The vertical bars on the black lines of the first graph show the uncertainty of each monthly mean based on the observed variability of CO 2 in different weather systems as they go past the top of Mauna Loa. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then (Thoning et al., 1989).

Figure 171.Detailed monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory over 2017-2022, Hawaii, After https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

I have one question for my readers: the world economy was shut down for months at the onset of the stay at home orders during the first wave of Covid-19, around March 2020, can you see any difference on the curve?

Of course you cannot, for the simple reason that as explained by Smil (2022) mankind would need to do a lot more than completely stopping individual transportation to decrease measurably [CO 2] increase as measured at MLO, if only it could as a significant part of the emissions are of natural origin due to the outgassing of the warm oceans as explained in Figure 20 and 22, p. 59. There are fundamental realities that govern the prosperity that has dramatically increased

our well-being since 1900 and far more over a little more than a century than since Sapiens lived in his cave 300k years ago.

The four pillars of our modern civilization, that enabled the big leap forward are: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. They've only been made available to us because of industrial processes that depend on dense energies, mainly oil & gas and Uranium, the last being the densest form of energy that we can use so far (to produce electricity in a 24/24, 365/365 reliable and modulable way). All these are material, tangible assets that have changed our civilization and Smil (2022) casts snarky asides towards microprocessors, smartphones, AI, and anything else that isn't sort of fundamental material assets. We need these basic resources continuously, and in abundance, and the electronic goodies aren't going to save us from misery if the green policies of the lunatics are implemented. Just to coin how ammonia transformation and usage, that all the green foolish policies want to reduce by force potentially triggerring agricultural disasters as in the Netherlands and Sri Lanka, are vital one must understand that nearly 4 billion people would not be alive without them. Silicon wafers are important for the modern world but only as long as you can feed. CO 2 has also helped fertilizers increase agricultural productivity making the world a better place to live, we need more not less of it. Cement, steel and plastic are building blocks of our prosperity and the world now consumes more cement in one year than it did during the entire first half of the 20th century.

Dense energies, with high Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and especially with fossil fuels and uranium are the core of our prosperity and whimsical dreams for our conversion to renewable sources of energy are not grounded into reality and Smil (2022) states "Until all energies used to extract and process these materials come from renewable conversions, modern civilization will remain fundamentally dependent on the fossil fuels used in [their] production." It's the oil and natural gas that get us all this steel, cement, plastic, and ammonia. But renewable electricity is not going to be able to perform the herculean job that fossil fuels do today in terms of producing the material that makes our world go round. Electric cars are gadgets of the green fantasy world and they fit well into the deceptive and delusional orwellian newspeak of the net-zero bla, bla.

As stated in simple terms by MacIntosh (2022) “If future EROI will be lower than any preceding electricity EROI (and it will be due to more costly, less dense and less effective energy sources), then consequently we can expect lower productivity, higher costs, higher inflation, and lower living standards”.

After the Covid-19 lock-downs that inaugurated a new era of massive destruction of the most basic individual freedoms, will come the time of the climate lock-downs and carbon passes that will wreak your lives, the green fascism is kind enough, as often with these authoritarian delirious ideas to let you know before what you're in for (Le Quéré et al., 2021; Nerini et al., 2021). You'll have no excuse and will not be able to claim that you were not aware.

“It makes no sense to force people to live in darkness in the name of climate policy when the policy makers themselves have so little understanding of the planet’s mechanisms of warming and cooling. Acknowledge the infancy of climate science and liberate people from energy tyranny”. Vijay Jayaraj (2022).

4. A few Scientific Facts to Remember

4.1. Why a Warmer World is a Better Place to Live

"That is to me the central mystery of climate science. It is not a scientific mystery but a human mystery. How does it happen that a whole generation of scientific experts is blind to obvious facts?...Indur Goklany has assembled a massive collection of evidence to demonstrate two facts. First, the non-climatic effects of carbon dioxide are dominant over the climatic effects and are overwhelmingly beneficial. Second, the climatic effects observed in the real world are much less damaging than the effects predicted by the climate models, and have also been frequently beneficial. I am hoping that the scientists and politicians who have been blindly demonizing carbon dioxide for 37 years will one day open their eyes and look at the evidence" Freeman Dyson

There are only advantages to having more CO2 and a marginally warmer world will make it a better place to live for the vast majority:

1.Cooler and colder is always riskier as taught by the history of mankind. The great famines of 1315-22 (see note 198 p.144) (Baek et al., 2020) coincided with the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Mount Tarawera eruption (Nairn et al., 2004; Hodgson and Nairn, 2005). Between 1310 and 1330, northern Europe saw some of the worst and most sustained periods of bad weather in the entire Middle Ages, characterized by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. This 1315-1322 period was marked by a dramatic death tool of up to 25% of the population in the cities and extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death, and even cannibalism and infanticide, followed by the famines of 1661-62 (known in France as the crisis of advent of the King Louis XIV) and also of 1692-93. All were due to the rain and the cold, with a little scalding (1693). At the time, after favorable harvests, the number of seeds one could eat per seed planted showed a ratio that could be as high as 7:1, but after unfavorable harvests it was as low as 2:1, that is, for every seed planted, two seeds were harvested, one for next year's seed, and one for food. By comparison, modern farming has ratios of 30:1 or more thanks to an extraordinary agricultural productivity due to fertilizers, mechanization, good weather and CO2 bonanza. More generally, civilizations have historically endured hardships when the weather got cooler or worse became cold enough to create upheavals

The fall of the Ming dynasty659 when the last Ming Chinese Emperor hanged himself in 1644 AD (23 January 1368 – 25 April 1644) is a telling example, when the regime collapsed at the beginning of the 1640s, masses of Chinese peasants who were starving, unable to pay their taxes, and no longer in fear of the frequently defeated Chinese army, began to form into huge bands of rebels. In this early half of the 17th century, famines became common in northern China because of unusual dry and cold weather that shortened the growing season; these were effects of the Little Ice Age. The famine and drought (but also occasional floods) in late 1620s and 1630s contributed to the rebellions that broke out in Shaanxi led by leaders such as Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong. On 26 May 1644, Beijing fell to a rebel army led by Li Zicheng; during the turmoil, the Chongzhen Emperor hanged himself on a tree in the imperial garden right outside the Forbidden City.

In Europe, the 1783 A.D. through 1784 A.D., Grímsvötn (Laki or Lakagigar) effusive eruption (14.7 km 3 of basaltic lava) led to major disruptions, including famine and fluoride poisoning in several countries. In 1788 and 1789 there were poor harvests, this caused in France bread prices to rise in conjunction with falling wages, and hence led to further discontent and rural revolt. Even though the causes of the French revolution starting in 1789 and lasting 10 years are still debated among historians, the cold and unsettled weather for several years (Fuster, 1845) was the straw that broke the camel's back, as these events contributed significantly to an increase in poverty and famine. Noteworthy, in North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record, a huge snowstorm hit the South; the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans and there were reports of ice floes in the Gulf of Mexico. There are other examples of a collapse of civilizations or of a meltdown of economies with massive societal disorders as colder is always risker for mankind. During the mid-seventies legitimate cooling scare, the CIA (1974) was perfectly aware of the risk and stated “ The potential implications of a changed climate for the food-population balance and for the world balance of

659https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Ming_dynasty

power thus could be enormous (...) In bad years, when the US could not meet the demand for food of most would-be importers, Washington would acquire virtual life and death power over the fate of multitudes of the needy. (...) More likely, perhaps, would be ill-conceived efforts to undertake drastic cures which might be worse than the disease; e.g., efforts to change the climate by trying to melt the arctic ice-cap ”. Demiurgic geoengineering ideas were already around the corner, though better justified;

2.Photosynthesis is stimulated by having more CO2 and plant productivity increases e.g. (Goklany, 2015; Schimel et al., 2015; Taub, 2010), both for the marine life as well as for all terrestrial ecosystems. Phytoplankton, sea algae and autotrophs are the substratum of all marine food web as zoo-planktons feeds with it and all the species further down the food chain depend on the primary productivity of the oceans and on the strength of the photosynthesis of the euphotic zone. Warmth and humidity of course favor the development of terrestrial ecosystems on land and there is no need of complex computer models to compare the exuberance and life of the tropical forest resting on warmth and rain and the dearth of the tundra or worse of polar regions where the cold annihilates most living species, where survive only a limited number of extremely well adapted forms of life. Naturally, “A warmer climate helps promote species diversity" says Munich zoologist Josef Reichholf;

A warmer environment favors crops productivity and extension to higher latitudes. Since the end of LIA, the conditions have considerably improved to cultivate far more agricultural surfaces than otherwise possible (Goklani, 2015), rather than returning to a new cool period. Even a slightly milder climate extends the growing season, enhancing the food security of the populations. A more friendly climate also strongly decreases the cost of heating the housing and greenhouses where crops have to be protected to reach maturity;

3.Many diseases that thrive during cold conditions, e.g. influenza and other respiratory afflictions, will be reduced by a warmer environment. This is worth noting as the positive aspects of a warmer climate on people's health are always underestimated (WHO, 2003). For example, Dr. Richard Tol, the director of the Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, and a prominent economist with Hamburg University in Germany, dismissed the UN IPCC touted Stern Report on the economics of climate change as "preposterous". Tol has also asserted that the benefits of a warmer world are frequently overlooked. Tol noted that "warming temperatures will mean that in 2050 there will be about 40,000 fewer deaths in Germany attributable to coldrelated illnesses like the flu” according to a May 7, 2007 article in Der Spiegel (Stampf, 2007). Beyond diseases, one must just understand that people die more of cold waves and cold climate than of warmer conditions or even hot-waves. Mortality data from several countries, regions and cities with cold, temperate, subtropical and even tropical climates show that average daily mortality is even or sensibly higher in cold months than in warm months (Guo et al., 2014) and Vardoulakis et al. (2014) state “In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality. In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively”. Goklani (2015) adds “The risk of death is higher in the winter not only in countries in cold climates, but also in Thailand and Brazil”. ;

4.By slightly warming the Arctic region (not the Antarctic as seen in section), the contrast between cold polar air masses and hot and humid tropical ones is reduced and the encounter of these conflicting air-masses generates less adverse conditions that lead to less extreme weather events (Leroux, 1993, 2005; Spencer, 2011) as shown by evidences and paleo-records, contrary to what has been wrongly postulated by CAGW theory advocates. Legates (2019) states “Warmer conditions, such as what we currently are experiencing, exhibit less climate variability than colder conditions. The Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient drives the poleward transport of energy in the climate system. Under a warmer world, the Tropics warm but the Poles warm even more. Consequently, the Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient lessens and the outbreak of much severe weather – driven by the interaction of cold polar air with warm tropical air – diminishes. Hurricane landfalls, for example, were much more frequent in South Carolina, New England, and China during colder periods”. Legates' statement is further supported by an extensive study by Liu et al. (2001) considering a 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, where they state “this article, we produce a 1,000-year time series of typhoon landfalls for the Guangdong Province in southern China, based on Chinese historical documentary records. Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age”. As rightfully pointed out by Leroux (1993, 2005), an increase of extreme events would result of a more severe and more regular confrontation of polar anticyclonic air masses arising from Mobile Polar Highs (MPHs) and colliding with warmer tropical or temperate air masses and would

be a sign of a global cooling, not the opposite, which would just resume the neo-glacial trend that started some 5,000 years ago as displayed on Figure 59, p. 151. Such excursions of deadly MPH have recently happened such as the one that froze Moscow in 2011 (KZ, 2011) with temperature as low as -30°C, homeless people dying and others more lucky having only hands and feet freezing. This episode followed the 2010 Russian heat wave which was rightfully attributed by Dole et al. (2011) to natural variability due to a long‐lived blocking event, an anticyclone characterized by high atmospheric pressures which refused to budge, forcing any cool air and rains to detour around it, acting as the equivalent of the winter MPHs but with an opposite effect. Leroux's disciples already see these events as the proof of the truthfulness of their Master's thesis and consider that they reflect a change in the global circulation, supposed to be speeding up, change that was according to them initiated in the 1970s. I agree with them that there is no connection with [CO2] changes, as these events have been observed many times in history. Interestingly, Nakamura et al. (2005) for the European heatwave of 2003 or Dole et al. (2011) for the Russian heatwave of 2010 concur that there was no means to forecast meaningfully these events just two week before they happened, even with super-computers permanently fed up with the latest data, on-site measurements, updated SSTs, aircraft real-time reports and more. How using similar software systems as those that are unable to predict 15 days ahead or even just a week ahead dramatic events like these heat-waves one could place any confidence into models supposed to tell us the what the temperature in 50 years will be? Let's be serious.

Schulze-Makuch et al. (2020) propose an interesting study where they recommend what has already been stressed here, i.e. that life generally speaking flourishes in warmer and wetter conditions (e.g. tropical forests) and struggles to survive in colder and dryer environments (e.g. Arctic, Antarctic, Siberia, etc.), which is really pushing open doors but given the hysteria about the minimal warming observed so far which would be more than welcome if it kept happening, is not a useless reminder. Schulze-Makuch et al. (2020) state “Life requires a certain range of temperatures, which is dependent on its biochemistry, and complex life on Earth has a narrower range than microbial life (Table 1). No empirical evidence is available, however, on what that optimum is, aside from the case of life as we know it on Earth. Based on our experience from Earth, the highest biomass and biodiversity is present in tropical rain-forests, and the least in cold polar regions (Brown, 2014; Kraft et al., 2011). Thus, higher temperatures than currently existing on Earth seem to be more favorable”.

Figure 172. Fraction of all-cause mortality attributable to moderate and extreme hot and cold temperature by country. Extreme and moderate high and low temperatures were defined with the minimum mortality temperature and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of temperature distribution as cutoffs. From Gasparrini et al. (2015).

As a picture is worth a thousand words, Figure 172 resulting from a study of more than 74 million cases by Gasparrini et al. (2015), show that cold, not heat, is by far the greater killer of humanity. As per that study, cool and cold weather kills about 20 times as many people as warm and hot weather. Excess Winter Deaths, defined as more deaths in the four winter months than equivalent non-winter months, total over two million souls per year, in both cold and warm climates. A more recent study of regional scope by Gasparrini et al. (2022), focusing on temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales demonstrates that “there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611–957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796–65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21–1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90–131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold.”, thus showing that cold kills 78 times more than heat (112.90/1.57) under this specific British climate.

But a well documented post by Richard (2022) on Gosselin's notrickzone.com, shows that several other new studies report heavily skewed ratios for cold- vs. heat-related excess deaths in the modern climate, including an excess mortality due to cold temperatures 32 times higher than for heat in Switzerland from 1969-2017 (Schrijver, 2022), an excess mortality due to cold temperatures 7.6 times higher than for heat in 326 Latin American cities from 2002 to 2015 (Kephart et al., 2022), an excess mortality due to cold temperatures 6.8 times higher than for heat in Pune city in India from 2004 to 2012 (Ingole et al., 2022), an excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 42 times higher than for heat in China in 2019 (Liu et al., 2022), an excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 46 times higher than for heat in Mexico from 1998-2017 (Cohen and Dechezleprêtre, 2022), and finally an excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 12.8 times higher than for heat across 612 cities within 39 countries over the period 1985–2019 as per Mistry et al. (2022) in a massive study that provides “the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data”. As Richard (2022) rightfully concludes “If there really is a concern for human health and extending life spans, there should be much more emphasis placed on reducing the costs of energy to heat homes, as well as minimizing exposure to cold temperatures. Instead, the invariable focus is on the dangers of “climate change” or heat waves that put humanity at a tiny fraction of the risk that cold temperatures do. Warmth saves lives. Cold kills. This has been true throughout human history, and it is no less true today”. If not enough one can add the studies from Burkart et al. (2021) “In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available.” and Zhao et al. (2021) “Globally, 5083173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087967–5 965520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related)”.

Ironically, Arrhenius who is somehow at the origin of the current climate hysteria, rejoiced by then of the possible perspective of a milder climate and stated “we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates" potentially making poor harvests and famine a thing of the past. Arrhenius was merely expressing a view that was firmly entrenched in the collective consciousness of the time: warm times are good times; cold times are bad. How could so many people forget this evidence? Especially among the most well educated part of the populations, e.g. researchers and climate scientists? Never forget that the consequences of the colder temperatures that plunged civilization into the so-called Little Ice Age for several centuries after 1300 were devastating. Summers were rainy, winters cold, and in many places temperatures were too low for grain crops to mature. Famines and epidemics raged, and average life expectancy dropped by 10 years. In Europe, tens of thousands of villages were abandoned and entire stretches of land depopulated. Is that what you would prefer?

When common sense is so much defeated, one must admit that their climate-science does not smell science at all but stinks politics all over the place. Science has been tragically corrupted and sacrificed on the altar of a new world agenda made of social control of populations and world government projects in the hands of international bureaucrats, resorting to fears, be it COVID-19 or CO2, in order to frighten people and make them willingly submit to the agenda of the dominants. The next Mencken's quotes looks tragically actual because even though it comes now already from some bygone past, it is yet still so relevant so many years later. His past insights to those whose lives are addicted to the seeking of power, or control, or fame, or money is still as valid today, as it was 70 years ago. The threat to the world is not man-made global warming or climate change. The threat to the world, as is always the case, is a current group(s) of humans who want to impose their values and visions on others.

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." And, "The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it." H. L. Mencken660

Furthermore, it has become increasingly clear that high solar activity protects us from deadly viral mutations that appear related to an increase of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and lead to further widespread pandemics. A recent paper from Kamath and Kamath (2020) states “Almost all the previous pandemics occurred during solar minimum years when the Sun spots were lowest or absent and when the solar activity was at the lowest. This study suggests that the present Covid 19 pandemic is triggered by the mutated viromes in bats from latitudes above 30 degrees N. The increase in cosmic ray flux during the solar minimum of solar cycle 24 has contributed to this”. This conjecture is also supported by Wickramasinghe (2020) who sees a direct relationship between the cosmic ray spike measured in late November 2019 and the on-spread of the recent pandemics.

660https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._L._Mencken – This quote is not an endorsement of Mencken ideas, more generally speaking.

Measurements of GCRs intensity and their modeled distribution (at various altitudes and latitudes) are performed by Matthiä et al. (2013) who show how geomagnetic shielding (strongly related to the solar wind) and primary particle intensity mainly influence the potential disruptions caused by GCRs on Earth. In that respect, one can conclude that GCRs have a double whammy effect, first acting on the global cloudiness and albedo changes and leading to cooling and unsettled weather during low solar activity cycles and second by triggering the onset of miserable sanitary conditions that plague mankind, which is just what can be observed over the last 2,000 years, when these circumstances were met. Over more recent timescales, Cliver et al. (1998) observe “During the past ~120 years, Earth’s surface temperature is correlated with both decadal averages and solar cycle minimum values of the geomagnetic aa index. Extrapolating the aa‐temperature correlations to Maunder Minimum geomagnetic conditions implies that solar forcing can account for 50% or more of the estimated 0.7–1.5°C increase in global surface temperature since the second half of the 17th

century”.

Beyond this short-term effect and immediate consequences of the solar activity on our well being on Earth, this brief reminder of the role of the GCRs leads us not to forget our place in the Galaxy (Shaviv, 2003; Redd, 2016; Xu et al., 2016) as we are indeed traveling on this Earth spatial vessel and following our Sun located in the Orion-Cygnus Arm, between the Sagittarius and Perseus arms, orbiting the central part of the barred Milky Way Galaxy (which resemble UGC 12158) at a distance (orbiting at a radius) of roughly 25-26k light years for a diameter of our own orbit of roughly 15-16 kpc. This is our true fate, mankind keeps thinking that it can act on and control everything, climate included, when we are just passengers of a spatial body that can hardly care less of our future and undergoes its own life

Finally, this warmer world might remain wishful thinking if Ollila's (2017a) analysis and model happen to be straight on, and it could well be. Ollila combines the natural variability of the climate reconstructed since the Little Ice Age with an anthropogenic contribution that he adjusts for a climatic sensitivity of 0.6° (thus still reasonably high). He takes the Sun into account in an estimate of natural variability according to 4 scenarios, and includes astronomical resonances (in particular the 60-year cycle) and accounts for past climate to within 0.09°C, which is much better than the complex IPCC CMIPx models. By taking into account the continuation of an increase of 3 ppm per year (i.e. more than 50% of the average 2 ppm observed), he concludes, in all scenarios, to a decrease in temperature from 2020 onwards. Projections between now and 2100 give the same temperature as in 2020 if the TSI does not change, but it would be 0.1 to 0.3°C lower if the TSI were to fall, which would logically be expected from solar activity cycle studies (Shepherd et al., 2014; Zharkova et al., 2015, 2019; Zharkova, 2020).

4.2. Is the Modern Optimum Special?

This is a question that comes often, as people are getting worried at large and tend to think that current climate changes observed are exceptional. This will be addressed over two separate comparision time-scales.

The Atlantic optimum that dates back to the 4th millennium B.C., happened just before the neo-glacial started (figure 59), and is known from forests reconstructions and palynological studies (Kalis et al., 2003; Marquer et al., 2014, 2017; Roberts et al., 2018; Zanon et al., 2018) and shows that a mixed forest of oak, hazelnut, alder and linden trees covered the whole of northwestern Europe at that time. The average temperature was then higher than today's, because the plant associations characteristic of this period never reappeared. Comparing, over the entire Holocene, forests extension and the observed associations of vegetation gives a reasonable clue to whether the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) was higher than now and by how much. With respect to vegetation and forest extension, Marquer et al. (2017) state that "The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally". Then Kalis et al. (2003) Fig. 12 p. 14-15, can be used to see how the forests extension has kept decreasing since the HCO.

Finally, while exchanging with Michael Calvin MacCracken661, he asked me the following question “While criticisms are always useful to consider, does your book offer an alternative hypothesis for why such strong warming is presently occurring?”. My answer to him was the following: your reasoning starts from a supposedly observed " strong warming". Is it indeed? Is the current Modern Optimum (MO) very different from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Roman Warm Period (RWP), or the Minoan (MiWP)? Do we have reasonable tools to answer that question as we are going to compare short measured time-series (maximum since 1724) to much longer reconstructed temperatures. What I'd like to stress here, is that there is only one certitude, the MO is still very far from the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) that happened naturally in between [-9000/-6000 BP].

Figure 173.Sequence of dated past neoglaciation events at high-elevation locations in the Alps. Note the general correspondence between glacier maximum age and its altitude. The blue shaded area indicates the period of continuous ice cover. Also shown are the tree line reconstruction from Kaunertal (Nicolussi et al., 2005). After Bohleber et al. (2020).

There are several strong evidences and let's consider here only three of them:

1.the extension of the forests, well studied in Europe over the entire Holocene (Kalis et al., 2003; Marquer et al., 2017) and the associations of vegetation (mixed forest of oak, hazelnut, alder and linden trees covered the whole of northwestern Europe at that time) sensitive to the cold that could never re-establish themselves, because the MO remains way colder than the HCO, (Heiri et al., 2015; Roberts et al., 2018; Zanon et al., 2018);

661https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael_MacCracken https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_MacCracken personal email exchange over “RG” on December 29th, 2020.

2. study by Bohleber et al. (2020) who investigate the neoglaciation history of high-elevation glaciers throughout the Alps showing a clear gradient in the onset of neoglaciation progressing from the higher summits of the Alps (> 4,500 m) that were ice-free before -9000 BP, down to 3,400 m around -6000 BP and finally since around -4000 m have gone down to a level of 2,700 m being characteristic of the neo-glacial regime. Within this neo-glacial that we're still in, two counter-trend warming are very visible and evidenced by changes in the altitude of the tree-lines (Nicolussi et al., 2005) see Figure 173, namely the RWP and the MiWP, the MWP is not very distinctive whereas the MO is starting to show off;

3.the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation that remains characteristic of the neo-glacial, i.e. the ITCZ is strongly shifted South and prevents the African monsoons to move North as they did when the Sahara was green 6000 years ago, see Figure 58.

It is remarkable that Bohleber et al. (2020) state “Our dating of the ice just above bedrock indicates that the ice body at WSS662 formed earlier than (5.9±0.7) ka cal and has been glaciated continuously ever since. This implies that even the WSS summit location at 3500 m altitude was ice-free during an interval prior to (5.9±0.7) ka. (...). Likewise, at around 5.3–5.1 ka cal, no ice existed at nearby Tisenjoch, at 3210 m. The end of the so-called “Holocene Climatic Optimum” is also observed in Austrian stalagmite records, indicating the onset of a cooling period around 5.9 ka. During those warm periods, the tree line was up to 165 m above the 1980 tree line in Kaunertal , (…) summits around 3000–4000 m were likely ice-free during the Mid-Holocene or covered by glaciers distinctly smaller than today”.

Another confirmation is given by the work of Rosenthal et al. (2013), who used, among others, Mg/Ca measurements in the benthic foraminifer Hyalinea balthica for reconstructing Intermediate Water Temperatures (IWTs) in various places. From thereof, these authors state “Our reconstructions show that IWTs at all depths were substantially warmer in the early and middle Holocene than during the late Holocene (Fig. 1). Specifically, IWT at 500 m was ~10°C between 10.5 and 9 thousand years ago (ka), increased to a maximum of ~10.7°C between 8 to 6 ka, and began decreasing after 6 ka, reaching ~7.8°C at the core top (~100 years B.P.)”. Not only do they confirm that the HCO was much higher than current MO using different proxies, strengthening all evidences available, but they also assert that the MWP was also warmer than now, latter observation that is also asserted by a completely different technique by Huang et al. (2008), using borehole temperature flux calculations.

Figure 174.One reconstruction of the air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, derived from Greenland ice cores, GISP-2. It provides a brief context to show the wider natural range of temperature over the last 11,000 years, some variations exceeding ±3°C over a century or so (e.g. 8.2 kyr event). Also notice that at the beginning of the Holocene, the Central Greenland ice core record shows 10°C (18°F) of warming in 144 years, from 11,755 BP to 11,611 BP (May, 2020a). The drop at 5480 BP corresponds to an extreme solar minima (Miyake et al., 2017, 2021) and a global climate change regime known as the 5.2 kyr event (Thompson et al., 2006). From climate4you.com 663 but also matches perfectly Fig. 5, p. 1219 given by Akasofu (2010) and Ball (2016b). Data from ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/ 662WSS stand for the Weißseespitze summit glacier 663http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2 TemperatureSince10700 BP with CO2 from EPICA DomeC.gif

Thus my take on Michael Calvin MacCracken's premise "such strong warming" is that the MO is still way colder than the HCO was and that I would not rate it unusual when compared to the MWP, the RWP or the MiWP each probably a little warmer than the previous one as in a “bear market trend664” (see Figure 174). Figure 174, deserves some comments to be understood correctly and to make accurate inferences. The GISP2 “present” follows a common paleoclimate convention and is actually 1950. Thus, the first data point in the file665 is at 95 years BP.

This would make 95 years BP: year 1855 — a full 156 years ago. From thereof and using Alley (2000a) data, the current modern warming is not entirely visible on this chart (just the beginning of it). But, this will change nothing to the fact that temperature would need to rise more than 3°C from the depth of the LIA to reach the Minoan optimum. Considering what we know of measurements and proxies since the end of LIA, this is far from being the case (rather a maximum of 1,5°C). This is for example well visible on Fig. 10 (1.5°C as per the “Gaussian filtering of Greenland ice sheet annual 2-m temperature anomalies relative to the 1951–80 base period”) and Fig. 11 (+1°C as per the moving average) of Box et al. (2009). This confirms that Modern Warming (MW) so far, is just on par with the Medieval Warming, at best.

As far as the RWP is concerned, one remembers that Hannibal crossed the Alps in 218 BC by the "Col de la Traversette" (2,947 meters) the highest of the Alps with his elephants at the end of October (see p. 242) and that in no way, he would succeed doing that now, and certainly not in 2000 with meters of snow there since early October. Still with respect to the RWP, as we reported, p. 144, Theophrastus (371 B.C.-287 B.C.) wrote that date palms could grow in Greece if they were planted, but that they could not bear fruit. This is the case today, suggesting that average summer temperatures in the southern Aegean in the 4th and 5th centuries BC were at least at a comparable level to those of today (see page 144) but it was warmer in England during the RWP as figs were grown around Colchester in Essex and during the Medieval Warm, Grapes were grown openly in Yorkshire in the North of England and interestingly, neither of those are possible for open air cultivation today. The illusion or the deception that current Modern Warming (MW) would be extraordinary both in magnitude and / or in its rate of change is unsupported by any evidence.

So having compelling evidences that the MO is not exceptional, what is the cause of it? First, one must observe that it started long before man-made emissions became significant and the reader remembers that Trutat (1876) stated long ago (see p. 26) «Since I have been exploring the Pyrenees, I see the glaciers melt before my eyes and in the Lys valley and in the area of Oo, they are receding at a frightening speed» and this was noticed in many places and is not a regional observation (Nussbaumer et al., 2011; Fig. 4 and 5). Then one must dismiss the fact that the warming which started for natural reasons, say 1800-1850, accelerated recently simply because SLR measured have not accelerated or marginally (see Figures 99 and 100).

Establishing that carbon dioxide does not regulate the temperature nor the climate on Earth is not enough, the second part of the question raised by MacCracken is “does your book offer an alternative hypothesis” as most of the time, even though all evidences point to the fact that CAGW fails, CAGW folks will return to it by saying “we do not have a better alternative, thus what else?” this is what MacCracken does by adding “Going back tens of millions of years and more, there is really no way to explain the large changes in climate that have occurred without changes in atmospheric composition playing a significant role. And so now humans are changing atmospheric composition by a significant amount”.

This statement does not stand examination as one should remind that if we just go back 20-25 millions years ago (see p. 173), the distribution of plates and mountain belts is already so different that the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation must have been entirely incomparable to the one presently observed. From the western Alps to the distant Himalayan, there were subduction zones, epi-continental seas with a very large tethys and para-tethys, molassic basins, etc., instead of the current mountain belts. This appears as a much more potent climate-change driver (e.g. acting on monsoons and the entire circulation) than any CO2 or other atmospheric change. I am always amazed when I read papers where the authors address very distant geological configurations and try to make CO 2 changes the scapegoat for worlds apart that share next to nothing together, e.g. Klages et al. (2020). Furthermore and never addressed, instead of focusing on minuscule supposed changes of the atmospheric composition and of CO 2 variations in particular, nobody considers the possibility of changes over such long timescales of the atmospheric pressure (thus changes of the mass of the atmosphere itself), as there is no reason that it would have remained stable for ever at 1 bar!

664A “bear market trend” is a trend that goes globally lower with counter-trend motions, but where each peak is lower that the previous one and where each valley is lower than the previous one. This is what is displayed by Figure 174, since the Minoan optimum. 665ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt as per Alley (2000a)

So unless one is able to come up with an heliocentric system, even though the geocentric does not fit the bill, it will not be enough to deter the CAGW proponents from supporting it, and they will always be reverting to it.

Then what is the "alternative hypothesis", the new heliocentric model? First, one needs to put things in a broader perspective, since the HCO, Earth's climate has been in a downtrend (for 6,000 years) mainly because of the combination of various orbital parameters, i.e. a decrease of the tilt (41kyr cycle between 22.1° and 24.3°) but also the joint action of precesion and eccentricity are reducing NH summer insolation and the 500-600 years fluctuations that have been reminded, i.e. RWP, MWP, and the MiWP, (the MO being just one of them) are super-imposed on the longer term global cooling trend. The MO may have been very marginally increased by man-made emissions, but the atmospheric sensitivity to CO2, albeit probably not null, is way smaller than asserted by IPCC. The anthropogenic contribution, if any, may in fact come much more from large scale irrigation and thus from a small observed increase of the RH of the lower troposphere (Pangburn, 2018) p. 370, water vapor being a much more potent GHG than CO2. In the end, there is no need to be looking for an extraordinary "alternative hypothesis" for this MO more than for the three preceding cycles that have already been mentioned (RWP, MWP, and the MiWP).

So many factors play a role and the Sun is the elephant in the room that IPCC refuses to see. We are probably gravely mistaken to consider it as such a stable star, the solar constant might only have its name constant, furthermore supposedly acting for the IPCC only through its TSI changes, when albedo changes are related to the solar wind, the global electro-magnetic activity of the Sun (not just TSI) and its influence on the Earth's geomagnetic field and GCRs action on the nucleation processes as convincingly evidenced by so many authors. These changes, coupled a) with variable volcanic activity throughout the ages both in terms of intensity, frequency and clustering of the manifestations, and b) with the reaction of the biosphere itself (see page 214) (Després et al., 2012; Bianchi et al., 2016), lead to more than enough triggers to modulate the low-pass filter oceanic calorimeter that stores long term heat and appears as one of the main drivers of the climate.

For the sake of clarity, let's separate between two periods: the neoglacial that started after the HCO some 8000 years ago and before, going back in time to at least the previous inter-glacial, the Eemian.

Current climate change since the HCO up to the Modern Optimum can easily be attributed to:

• The action on the solar tachocline (see note 277, p. 206) of a combination of planetary resonances, some being regular (Semi, 2009; Abreu et al., 2012; Scafetta, 2014; Malhotra, 2021), others appearing chaotic as per the combination of regular modes convoluted by a complex non-linear system (Braun et al., 2005; Raspopov et al., 2008, Stefani et al., 2020; Viaggi, 2021), lead to significant solar variability, as recorded per 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, that invalidates the myopic apparent stability of the TSI measured over very short periods, i.e. typically some decades. In that respect, “Bond events” over the Holocene appear of a comparable nature to “Dansgaard–Oeschger events” that kept happening all along the last glacial period as recorded in Greenland ice core (which only go back to the end of the last interglacial, the Eemian interglacial) and can be attributed to such planetary tidal resonances. In that respect, Stefani et al. (2020) not only attribute solar cycles to tidal planetary forces “Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion” that result from “combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system”, but even more importantly explain these Bond and D-O events with such mechanisms;

• Various geophysical mechanisms involving the troposphere, the stratosphere and the ionosphere resulting from the interaction of the geomagnetic field and the solar flux (considered at large, i.e. solar wind, solar storms, GCRs, etc.) that lead to albedo changes through cloud cover changes, most importantly in the tropics (Goode, et al., 2021). One should never forget that a change of albedo of a tiny 3% (say from 31% down to 30%) is equivalent to the warming anticipated by a doubling of [CO 2]. Multiple studies suggest potential links between GCRs and the climate through the intermediary of the Global Electric Circuit 666 (GEC), and beyond Svensmark and colleagues already cited many times, let's add (Tinsley and Heelis, 1993; Tinsley et al., 2007; Tinsley, 2012; Lam and Tinsley, 2016; Zhou et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2020). Others have also provided independent analysis that is somewhat consistent with such mechanisms (Carslaw et al., 2002; Shaviv, 2005; Harrison and Stephenson, 2006; Voiculescu et al., 2013; Itoh et al., 2018);

666 The Global Electric Circuit refers to the Earth interaction (through magnetosphere and ionized layers of the atmosphere) with the Solar wind.

• A recent and anthropogenic increase of Water Vapor (WV) that is more than one can expect from the current warming, WV a 20X more potent GHG than CO2 (Pangburn, 2018).

The convolution of these phenomenons (plus others) creates a complex signal response within a non-linear coupled system (ocean-atmosphere-biosphere) that introduces all sorts of lags due to heat storage (in particular in the oceans) and circulation issues (oscillations). The interaction with the biosphere is highly underestimated and very complex and there are many feedbacks. This is what has driven the climate since the HCO and created the various optima that we have knowledge of going backwards, i.e. Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Roman Warm Period (RWP), or the Minoan (MiWP). This is of course a little more complex than the CO 2 scapegoat control knob and provides no political leverage over the gullible masses, but is far more consistent with the reality of a remarkably complex planet interacting with its solar and planetary environment.

Observed climate changes over the last 8500 years BP have been impressive and their consequences on mankind very significant, either opening possibilities when the climate got warmer or creating its batch of catastrophes when it got cooler, let's rewind the story:

• The LIA (1650-1850) corresponding to the solar Spörer667 Minimum (1450-1550), Maunder Minimum (16451715) and Dalton Minimum (1790-1820) see e.g. (Eddy, 1976, 1977; Brehm et al., 2021), whereby the TSI of the late 17th century was 3-4 W/m-2 lower than at present (Haigh, 2003), during which humankind conditions were miserable and people would walk across the Seine and Thames river winter time as they were frozen over several months;

• The great famine (1315-1317), everybody starved, most died, it simply just rained too much and the weather was cool and also let's not forget the famine of 1693 due to the rain (1692-1693) and the cold, with a little scalding (1693). It is within the framework of the Maunder Minimum (MM) and more specifically the Late Maunder Minimum or LMM (1675-1715); a worldwide coverage of the MM's effects is given by Soon and Yaskell (2003). The number of additional deaths in 1693 and 1694 is an astounding 1,300,000 people, i.e. 5.8% of the French population. The Great Frost of 1708-1709 also took its toll with 600,000 death in France only;

• The MWP around year 1000 and the Vikings' settlements in Greenland (i.e. the Green Land!);

• Hannibal's crossing of the Alps with his elephants during the Second Punic War, 218 BC;

• The synchronous collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia, the Old Kingdom in Egypt and Early Bronze Age settlements in Anatolia, the Aegean and the Levant due the «4.2 ka BP mega drought»;

• The green Sahara 6500 BP with solar radiation up 8% as compared to present that resulted in the African monsoon becoming both stronger and reaching farther north;

• The complete disappearance of the glacier in the Alps and elsewhere around 7000 BP;

• The “8.2 ka Cold event” due to the fast drainage of the huge pro-glacial lake668 Agassiz resulting from the melting of the Laurentide and Scandinavian ice sheets;

One thing for sure, our GHG emissions were for nothing in the aforementioned catastrophic climate changes and if we extend the scope of the discussion a bit further than the local optima seen since the neoglacial started after the HCO some 8000 years ago (Figure 174), one must acknowledge that we've seen over the geological recent past, i.e. the early Holocene and the previous glacial cycle, massive and extremely fast climate changes that were, of course, totally unrelated to man-made presence or action, they are well worth being reminded to the reader and they will totally invalidate all false claims that the current changes observed would happen at a much faster rate than ever observed.

667The evidence suggests that the 10Be enhancements in 1459 may be the result of a gamma ray pulse from Vela Junior as the increase in 10Be production in the Southern hemisphere was three times that in the Northern which is consistent with the declination of -46,5° of the Vela Junior SN remnant (distance of 650-700 light-years away is a 1/10th of the distance to the closest of the other nine SN that have occurred in the past 2000 yrs). But the solar origin cannot be excluded either as 1459 falls in the middle of the Spörer solar minimum (Zharkova et al., 2019).

668https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proglacial_lake and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Agassiz

• Striking Sea Level Rise (SLR) since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum occurred in a sequence of various pulses669 (Gornitz, 2012), i.e. meltwater pulse 1A0 (19,600-18,800 years ago, ocean levels climbed at least 10 m within 800 years), Meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a) was a period of rapid post-glacial sea level rise (Lin et al., 2021), between 13,500 and 14,700 years ago, during which global sea level rose between 16 meters and 25 meters in about 400–500 years, giving astounding mean rates of roughly 40-60 mm/yr as shown on Figure 104 (to be compared to current SLR of 1mm/yr as visible on Figure 98), followed by meltwater pulse 1B (11,000-9,000 years ago), meltwater pulse 1C (8,200-7,600 years ago);

• The warm Bølling–Allerød event (D-O 1) or interstadial (Hartz and Milthers, 1901) was an abrupt warm and moist period with an extreme and brutal temperature change of +10±4°C that ran from 14,690 to 12,890 years BP (Rasmussen et al., 2006) and ended abruptly with the onset of the cold Younger Dryas episode (Grachev and Severinghaus, 2005) as visible on Figure 62, p. 158;

• From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) backwards to the Eemian inter-glacial, there have been 25 DansgaardOeschger events, tens of Heinrich stadials and AIM events over more than 70 kyr;

• The bonus are two major super-volcanoes' explosions, one in each hemisphere (-39 kyr and -73 kyr), the Toba nearly managing to wipe out hominids from the planet;

• and the previous Eemian interglacial optimum with hippopotamuses in the British Isles due to variations of insolation resulting from the regular change of the Earth's orbital parameters;

Let's remind the reader that Dansgaard–Oeschger events (D–O events), are rapid climate fluctuations that occurred 25 times during the last glacial period. These events occur quasi-periodically with a recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, see Braun et al. (2005) “We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation” and are attributed to a complex response to solar cycles. These D-O events have occurred all over the planet, and they are not confined to certain areas as some alarmists and the IPCC would like you to believe as demonstrated by Corrick et al. (2020), a paper of course not cited by AR6. The D-O events are periods of extreme warming with temperature increases of more than 8°C in 40-50 years (at least less than 100 years), which rate of change is enormous compared to the speed of current warming, i.e. dramatic but fleeting global climatic swings characterized by a period of abrupt warming followed by a period of slow cooling that occurred during the last ice age. Today, in fact, the temperature evolution is +0.13°C/decade since January 19791, or 0.01°C/year. The current rise is therefore +0.65°C in 50 years which is more than 10 times lower than a D-O event!

Dansgaard-Oechsger events and Bond events are of very different nature. D-O events are characterized by sudden warming centered in the North Atlantic-Nordic Seas area and require glacial conditions (low sea level and extensive sea ice cover). Water stratification along salinity and temperature clines appears to be the critical factor behind D-O events. By contrast, Bond events are of opposite nature. They reflect abrupt cooling, not warming, could be heterogeneous in nature as not all events appear to have the same cause, but are well reflected from North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) to China’s Dongge cave speleothem records of the South Asian Monsoon (Cheng et al., 2016). Bond events have been recently related to solar cycles as well (Stefani et al., 2021).

Thus, so many factors are intertwined, that an heliocentric representation is not going to be simply substituted to a geocentric one as what happens when a brutal paradigm shift occurs when people realize they've been mistaken for long. In fact one may envision slow progresses where each factor acting on the climate will progressively be evidenced and their relationships established until a satisfactory global scheme will be fathomed. CO 2 may have a place in that very complex climate framework to be established, but not only will it not be in the driver seat, but that could only be a very remote back seat. It stands forefront as the gas of life, this is its ultimate role, the real wizardry of that planet.

669 A meltwater pulse is an acceleration in sea-level rise which results from outbursts of pro- or subglacial meltwater and/or surging of ice-streams into the ocean during ice-sheet disintegration, see Blanchon (2011) and Blanchon et al. (2009).

4.3. Conclusions

“Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth, for being correct, for being you. Never apologize for being correct, or for being years ahead of your time. If you’re right and you know it, speak your mind. Speak your mind. Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is still the truth.” — Mahatma Gandhi

A climatologist is sort of a meteorologist (as they both use similar General Circulation Models 670) who has forgotten that no decent 15 days forecasts can be made but who has deluded him/her self into believing that he/she knows what the weather will be in a century671. This statement is not overly surprising as IPCC admitted in 2001 that «The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible», IPCC – 2001 – TAR-14 – «Advancing Our Understanding», p. 771. One should note that since this statement was made in 2001, the state of art in underlying physics (Navier–Stokes equations 672), discretization (by means of the finite difference method) and computing has not dramatically changed. Even if the computing power has increased significantly, let's remind why Gerlich and Tscheuschner (2009) dismissed climate models “It cannot be overemphasized that even if these equations are simplified considerably, one cannot determine numerical solutions, even for small space regions and even for small time intervals. This situation will not change in the next 1000 years regardless of the progress made in computer hardware”.

Notwithstanding this evidence, CAGW supporters will immediately claim that this is irrelevant, that climate is concerned with long term trends, etc., while at the same time druming all their doom and gloom as soon as some unfortunate meteorological event happens, e.g. drought, flood, cold snap, heat wave, forest fire, not one of these unfortunate situations, that have happened and been feared for as long as Sapien has been around, is ever missed to say that the climate has been disrupted by us, as if it had ever been a smooth ride to live on Earth. By doing so, they just acknowledge that the core of their dogma naively relies on equating an increase of temperature to an increase of CO 2 and that they have completely forgotten what defines the Climate as per Köppen-Geiger673 (Köppen, 1884a-b, 1936; Kottek et al., 2006). Let's recall climate predictions require knowledge of precipitations that consists of the five main groups, i.e. A (tropical), B (dry), (temperate), D (continental), and E (polar) which are further divided into seasonal precipitation patterns, and temperature changes follow.

But if no meteorological forecast is able to predict where the next major depression will be in 15 days, or hurricane or else, it also entails that beyond 15 days there is no solution to knowing where the precipitations will happen. There are of course very good reasons for that, which is that the most important component of the weather and climate, i.e. water and water vapor with clouds and complex cloud systems, are so complex and uncertain that computer climate models resort to crude representations based on “parametrization”. Convection, one of the major components of heat distribution in the atmosphere thanks to further change of state of water vapor and release of latent heat, is so badly taken into account by climate models that it must be handled via parameters, i.e. tweaking the code so that it delivers a semblance of relevance. Clouds are also typically handled using parameters, for similar reasons.

Limited understanding of clouds has impaired the success of the models and has made them unable, as we have seen before, to just reproduce the climate (integral over time of the weather) just back to the LIA. Furthermore and as explained in section “Do Climate Models Account for Observations?” p. 355, computer simulations have run way too hot and this is now acknowledged even by those who have made a living with them and have been their most supportive promoters like Hausfather et al. (2022), but things have reached such a point where the models run so ridiculously too hot that they have had to try to react and recognize that climate simulations are plagued by the ‘hot

670https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_circulation_model A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and forecasting climate change

671The classical delusion and deception is one such as expressed by Randall et al. (2007) “Note that the limitations in climate models’ ability to forecast weather beyond a few days do not limit their ability to predict long-term climate changes, as these are very different types of prediction”. In fact, multi-decadal climate predictions are claimed to be different types of prediction (i.e. called “boundary forced” as distinct from “initial value” problems), but, of course, they are also initial value predictions, as discussed in Pielke Sr. (1998) and Pielke Sr. et al. (1999). The predictability (as defined in geophysics) of these predictions is null. If an astronomer were to tell you that he does not know where an object will be in 10 days but that he knows where it will be in 20,000 years you would call him an astrologer, in our case you call him a “climatologist”.

672Navier-Stokes equations, a system of partial differential equations, were established in 1822 by French engineer Henri Navier with a seminal contribution by George Stokes.

673https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Köppen_climate_classification

model’ problem (Hausfather et al., 2022) to keep some sort of credence. How could such programs forecast anything meaningful? But one should remember that these software systems are the only pseudo “evidence” that the CAGW cartel provides to ascertain their extraordinary hypothesis

Let's summarize a bit where we stand:

As far as Physics is concerned:

• Arrhenius calculations were wrong and his original conjecture is flawed: CO 2 only plays a marginal role in the climate system ;

• Despite 1753 Gt of CO2 emitted since the year 1900, anthropogenic CO2 remains a tiny 6% of the overall atmospheric CO2 concentration (see p. 35). The circulation of CO2 is fast and involves vast reservoirs (see p. 58 and p. 128) and the three quarters of the total increase measured so far has also come from a natural process, i.e. the out-gassing of the tropical oceans due to an increase of their SSTs (see p. 58) and more generally a natural rise of the global temperature since the end of LIA; the residency time in the atmosphere of each CO 2 molecule is less than six years674, and the warming resulting of the CO2 increase as measured at MLO since 1958 (i.e. Keeling curve) is a typical example of a diminishing returns function, as the more the increase the less the effect, because of the logarithmic response as per Myhre et al. (1998);

• Because of a very obvious reason, i.e. Henry's law (see more specifically Equation 214, p. 290), CO2 follows T and not the other way round (see p. 51), effect cannot precede cause, therefore the CAGW theory is based on an erroneous causation;

• The ground temperature results essentially from the gravitation lapse rate, given a 1 bar atmosphere receiving an incoming solar flux of 1370 W/m2 (see p. 71), this nearly regardless of the atmospheric composition as comparative planetology teaches us (see Equation 78 p. 77), water and water vapor being unique to this planet;

• Water and water vapor (the principal GHG), are the two main players, see p. 124, but are dismissed or their role is consciously underestimated (to the profit of a trace gas CO 2) as taking due consideration of their effect shreds into pieces the CAGW theory and they resist decent software modeling (due to intrisic complexity of the various phenomenons and of small scale erratic behavior of clouds not taken into proper consideration even by the smallest grids of climate models) and thus entails that climate cannot be forecast beyond what the state of the art in meteorology is already struggling to achieve, i.e. 15 days, despite what vested interests say (see p. 350);

• 99.9618% of the CO2 ever present in the atmosphere has been removed by various natural processes (mainly weathering) over geological times and stored in one form or another (see p. 84); longer term the lack of CO2 is the problem with even C4 plants at risk of failing to achieve photosynthesis;

• Atmospheric sensitivity to CO2 is greatly exaggerated (see p. 88) and the role of water vapor vastly underestimated;

• The Greenhouse effect (see p. 107) is the only phenomenon in Physics (absorption of IR radiations by some gases) that is so badly defined and intentionally kept confusing.

As far as other sciences are concerned (e.g. Astronomy, Geology, etc.):

• Past climates, at all timescales, show that the climate has always changed for natural causes;

• Astronomical forcing, including solar and orbital variations are the main causes that drive the climate, having an action on the complex set of interacting components of the Earth-system i.e. the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (groundwater, lakes, rivers and oceans), the cryosphere (ice sheets and floes), the lithosphere (realm of geology, including plates, oceanic and continental crust and volcanoes), the pedosphere (soils) and of course the biosphere that adapts and reacts to the changes of all the former;

• Sea Level changes measured since 1907 show no acceleration (1mm y-1), half of it being originated by steric effects675 and are greatly exaggerated by selectively picking starting and ending dates at a hollow and a top of a

674IPCC is still searching for the “missing C and sink conundrum” in their budgets, e.g. (Kheshgi et al., 1996), (Houghton et al., 1998), but a lot more CO2 than thought could be transformed into organic matter as calculating surface ocean productivity has been quite challenging to say the least and carbon budgets are gravely affected. Ocean surface productivity could be exporting as much as 100 to 1,000 times more organic carbon to the deep ocean food webs than had been previously reported (Burd et al., 2010), or else a lot more CO2 could be integrated into the soils and vegetation sinks has explored in the carbon budget defended in this e-book, p. 128.

675i.e. temporal changes in the global mean density.

temporal local sinusoidal wave and used as a politically sensitive argument to strike minds and threaten people into submission to the CAGW theory ;

• Natural climatic oscillations ENSO (El Niño - La Niña), AMO, NAO, PDO are much more relevant to climate than CO2 concentration ;

• Glaciers have been receding since the end of the LIA and long before anthropic emission became significant and no acceleration is noticeable. Arctic and Antarctic, considered jointly, are stable. The North-West Passage, a good proxy for Arctic sea-ice extent, was open to shipping in 1945, and Amundsen passed through in a sailing vessel in 1903;

• Extreme events remain within known boundaries;

• The acidification of the oceans is a myth;

• Major volcanic eruptions (especially undersea as volcanism within the ocean basins currently comprises 70% of Earth’s magma output) can be very disruptive for the climate (Yim, 2022) but are dismissed and geothermal fluxes calculations are plagued with major uncertainties concerning key areas, i.e. the mid-oceanic ridges (Davies and Davies, 2010) ;

• The biosphere benefits of the little plus that a small increase of CO 2 brings and the risk is a lack of CO2 as it is the gas of life, nothing less!

Climate models are deluding as they give a false impression of established science based on irrefutable computer calculations, but:

• Climate Models have even failed to account for recent past observations;

• They are tinkered with to try to fit non-scientific objectives;

• They use data which are adjusted, or tampered with;

• They have little or no validity, beyond the 15 days meteorological forecast horizon, as they are just fit for political objectives.

Policies that will result from the dogma will be deceitful and will destroy western economies and our ways of living with no reasons:

• Many people aim benefit surreptitiously from these coercive policies for their personal gains whilst claiming the “general good of the population” as their motivation;

• Prophets of doom have been making false claims for decades. They bank on the emotional response of the people to propagate their misguided prophecies that have never come about in reality;

• Deceitful political messages have ignored factual information and deceived people intentionally;

• Thought police have been more active than ever in treating non-conforming scientists as political opponents, discouraging and/or even silencing them with threats.

You want more political ecology? Well go on, but do not come back later saying that you have not been warned! Ecofascism, as all previous forms of fascisms have demonstrated676 starts with the enactment of a “state of emergency”677 , and then will run its course crushing people for their own sake...

NOW, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

In the end one should observe that as explained in the section “Atmospheric Sensitivity to CO 2”, starting page 88, YES a doubling of atmospheric CO2, if possible to occur instantaneously to satisfy the computers, will provide some marginal warming with some reasonable confidence. But one should welcome this extremely minor bonus to the natural warming that already occurred since the end of the Little Ice Age (starting around 1800). Food security of Mankind has been greatly improved by the “greening” that results from the small increase of the gas of life which stimulates plants, vegetation and crops and benefits everybody. Milder climate conditions are welcome, they are essentially due to natural causes, and they only have positive consequences. There are no detrimental side-effects to this slight warming

676https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_Fire_Decree The Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State (German: Verordnung des Reichspräsidenten zum Schutz von Volk und Staat) was issued by German President Paul von Hindenburg on the advice of Chancellor Adolf Hitler on 28 February 1933 in immediate response to the Reichstag fire. The decree nullified many of the key civil liberties of German citizens. With Nazis in powerful positions in the German government, the decree was used as the legal basis for the imprisonment of anyone considered to be opponents of the Nazis, and to suppress publications not considered "friendly" to the Nazi cause. The decree is considered by historians as one of the key steps in the establishment of a one-party Nazi state in Germany. 677https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/

and the fables of extreme climatic events getting more frequent and harsher are just plain hogwash. History teaches us that civilizations have often collapsed whenever the climate became too cold and resources too scarce (e.g. Viking's settlement in Greenland, long Chinese history of the fall of Emperors, etc.), and we have plentiful of such examples, never when it became warmer.

As scientists, we first need state not more that we know, and surely we do not know much despite our long quest for knowledge. Climate is a tremendously complex and multi-disciplinary subject and has always been changing, at all timescales, and this is in its very nature. Studying why is a passionate endeavor, but claiming that one knows what will be the temperature or the rainfall, globally or regionally, in a century is a plain deception, a mere lie. Scaring populations with a minuscule increase of a trace gas, which has only positive consequences is a grave political treachery, designed to undertake underground social engineering. As was demonstrated throughout this document the climate responds to so many other triggers and influences in a somewhat chaotic manner that focusing exclusively on small variations of a trace gas is ridiculous (Lindzen, 2017). Claiming that the coral reefs will be gone by 2050, that Sea Level Rise will compromise the lives of millions and threaten the wealth of even more when the only example they can provide is the subsiding Carteret Islands, that extreme meteorological events will be more frequent and more severe, etc. do not resort to reason and only undermine the credibility of science and scientists in general as those who talk that kind of nonsense are considered as such by the public and the media. They either delude themselves or worse they follow some ideological agenda, stressing uselessly the public, feeding the extremism of some NGOs and putting unnecessary pressure on politicians who will end up enacting laws to no avail that will bring major disruptions to our modern, complex and fragile societies. Scientists need to be rational, do their homework for as long as required and not raise red flags unless absolutely necessary when conditions are met to be beyond any reasonable doubt. This is clearly not the case and they will bear a heavy responsibility in the future course of action of mankind.

The heritage of religions was so strong for centuries that man found it difficult to get out of the habit of thinking of an earth-centric universe, and placing himself at the center. Galileo faced inquisition and imprisonment for his view. It was astronomy that rescued us from zealots and geology confirmed that their beliefs were erroneous, both in space and in time. Such has it been throughout the history of scientific disciplines that have endured long struggles over time against anthropocentrism and other unwelcome, misguided beliefs or agendas. Paleoclimatology teaches us that climate change and even climate disasters have been the norm rather than the exception, and to think that they can be avoided by enacting regulations or appointing climate czars is not only puerile and naive but sadly delusional.

Science had succeeded in putting man in his place, an insignificant creature hosted by the third planet of a mundane solar system with a G0 star, in a mundane galaxy (our Milky Way) with 400 billion such stars and systems, such a galaxy among a local cluster of other galaxies, itself drowned among hundreds of billions of such galaxies stretching out to distances of more than 10 billion light years. Like all religions before it, environmentalism tries to put man back at the center of a mental delusion by which this time, through his evil CO2 emissions, he will ruin Eden and his own future, unless he recognizes his sins and complies with the delusional rules of his new masters, the Green Clergy, in order to redeem his faults. Mary was not more a virgin and the Christ was not more resurrected than CO 2 will destroy the climate of planet Earth. Science has now been hijacked by powerful special interests.

The hypothesis that CO2 is such a potent climate driver that after a century of large man-made emissions the IPCC is still desperately looking for a clear anthropogenic signal is based itself on belief and it has been falsified by science and by observation; that would be comical were it not for the loathsome and dire perspective that a future dystopian world has in store for mankind. CAGW appears like pathological science (Langmuir, 1989) that has managed to divert huge resources to its profit that will cruelly be missed for more meaningful endeavors. One needs to stop scaring people with baseless fears, like indomitable epidemiological spreads or climatological Armageddon and not impoverish populations with rogue policies that will harm everybody and will discredit science.

So do not call me a skeptic, that would be both incorrect and too easy to dismiss all the evidences I have brought to light in this document. I did my homework to the best of my ability and I have put my ideas in writing so that as many people as possible may calmly read, think and agree or disagree, but hopefully form a more informed opinion. I would ask all those who consider that my work was worth the effort they put in reading it to share the http:// address of where to get it for free, as knowledge and reason must prevail.

This is a climate e-book for rational people, hopefully scientists included. Let's not allow History to repeat itself and throw hundred of millions into chaos for baseless ideologies, creating damage that will far outreach eventual costs required to adapt to an ever evolving climate, and would we be responsible or not of part of the change. Scientists need

to be responsible, the unfounded problems they may create will far exceed the benefits of securing funds for the next year. I strongly support James Hansen's and co-signatories pledge for a comeback to the forefront of nuclear power and all forms of energies that may show reliability and efficiency while keeping working on more safety.

We need to remain optimists, but even then one should observe that mankind faces two real threats: the first is cooling and certainly not warming as the end of the beloved inter-glacial Holocene, this friendly interlude in mankind history, will come sooner than later and the second is a possible collision with a Near Earth Object (NEO). For each of these problems we can engineer some solutions as long as we stop wasting our time in fantasies like the CAGW and fighting a mistakenly designated foe which is our friend instead, CO2

CO2, my friend, hopefully and optimistically you will finally be acknowledged for what you are. You well deserve it, as you have been supporting life on this planet for billions of years and have never let us down. Please never fall under the fateful threshold, below which photosynthesis ceases and life ends. You will be missed for what you are, a benefactor.

There is no climate crisis and no climate urgency. Let's be rational, repel myths and the dreadful policies that might emerge. Carbon and warmth support life and this has always been so over geological times. Let's thwart suicidal plans, but let's be optimistic.

Above all, may the treasures of Science and scientific method prevail!

5. Epilogue

The Earth is an aging planet, after 4.54 billion years (Gyr) of a buoyant existence in a 13.8 billion year old Universe (life itself can be traced back to more than 3.5 Gyr) and geologists have a very good understanding of the last 570 million years as shown on Figure 51. All other telluric planets in the solar system have died long ago either as active geological bodies (except tide driven volcanism for satellites like Io) or as platforms able to host and support life (if they ever were), each for very specific reasons. Comparative planetology is very telling and teaches us that the Earth has become an old lady, an aging celestial body. Never the Earth has been so cold over its entire geological history of 4.54 Gyr, and the climate has kept getting more and more hostile since the last Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 56 million years ago as visible on Figure 73, and the last 2.58 million years, i.e. the entire Quaternary Period, have been a nearly constant ice-house age, because at least one permanent large ice sheet, i.e. the Antarctic ice sheet has existed continuously and was only interrupted by short inter-glacial periods, see Figure 66.

During the early Quaternary, the fluctuation period between two successive glacial episodes was about 41,000 years due to the interplay of precession, obliquity and eccentricity (see explanations p. 195), but following the MidPleistocene Transition it has slowed to about 100,000 years, as the Earth continued cooling and will return soon to an ice-age in 1,500 years (see Figure 69). Over the past 740,000 years there have been eight glacial cycles, and mankind had difficulties surviving both the Toba explosion (a VEI-8 catastrophic volcanic event, 75,000 yrs ago) and the hostile ∼ climatic conditions that prevailed. The planet managed to exit the ice-ages only one out of three attempts offered by the tilt cycle of 41 kyr as it took 120,000 years since the Eemian (MIS-5e; 131–114 kyr ago) to return to milder conditions, i.e. the Holocene.

At the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), i.e. 23,000 years ago, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere went as low as [150-180] ppm, a very dangerous level and life was on the brink of exhaustion as under 150 ppm the photosynthesis stops and thus all life would cease to exist. Hopefully some 13,000 years ago, coming in the aftermath of the “Younger Dryas”, the temperature has increased rapidly as visible on Figure 62 due to a favorable set of orbital conditions, the ice-sheets that covered most of Septentrional Europe and Northern America have receded and a marine transgression of more than 130 meters over 8,000 years, stopping -4.500 years ago, invaded the continents (see Figure 103). The temperature reached an optimum, known as the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO), some [9,500-5,500] years ago as displayed on Figure 59, the Sahara was green, all favorable conditions that were never experienced again as the cooling trend re-established itself and still prevails. The Holocene, this blessed period of 13,000 years that humanity has just lived, that accounts for a tiny 0.00029% of the entire Earth's history will soon and alas come to an end as the orbital decision to terminate this interglacial is already baked in the astronomical cards (see Figure 61). Science knows, but this knowledge is of no avail to mankind's survival if ruined by special interests and scuttled by politics and ideologists.

Over the last 2,500 years we had three positive favorable small counter-trends of this already cooling inter-glacial, the Roman Warm Period (RWP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Modern Optimum (MO) which owe nothing to the level of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, the RWP being slightly the warmer of the three as proven by many records, see page 144. We should of course celebrate the MO, being slightly warmer than the Little Ice Age which ended around 1850, happened to be a trying period for humanity, with famines and widespread sufferings (see footnote 144). The increase of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere since the end of the LGM is the result at 94% of the natural out-gassing of the oceans as per Henry's law (1803), man-made emissions which accelerated since 1950 providing the remaining 6% of a trace gas that overall represents a tiny 0.04% of the global atmospheric composition.

CO2 is a trace gas having next to zero influence on the climate. It is essential to the very existence of life on Earth and the increase from a dangerous low level 23,000 years ago to safer levels of 400 ppm has re energized an old planet, triggered increased photosynthesis and resulted in the incorporation of 570 Gt-C into CO 2 sinks since 1900 as per the CB presented in Figure 48. It has provided more food to all living species on Earth, regardless of its position in the food chain. If mankind marginally contributes to it, this should be welcomed as it helps to sustain life on Earth. 99.9618% of the CO2 ever present on Earth has already been removed (see p. 133) and is stored in limestones, chalks and sediments in the range of [66,000,000 Gt-C – 100,000,000 Gt-C] and as fossil organic materials in excess of 13,000,000 Gt-C. Thus the risk to life on this planet is a lack of CO2 not an excess of it.

Climate models and atmospheric science give a myopic view on an otherwise much broader and complex Earth system by focusing on the IR absorption properties of a trace gas which plays a marginal climate role, given the fact that the Earth is first and foremost a thermodynamic machine based on a complex hydrological and hydrodynamic cycle and where most of the heat is stored in the oceans with longer response time than most short-sighted General Circulation atmospheric Models (GCMs) can handle. The drastic limitations of these GCMs in succeeding to attribute even part of the warming observed during the MO to man-made emissions and their inability to make any unequivocal forecast at the climate timescale is now acknowledged by the very scholars who develop them. No compelling evidences of the role that man-made CO2 emissions could have on the climate are available and focus should be given to adaptation to an ever changing natural environment, and to remediation measures especially within the context of rapid changes of land use.

Finally a warmer world is a better one and we will be brutally reminded of this when the inter-glacial period ends.

The bigger picture is that contributions from around 15 scientific disciplines need to be deployed, mostly in the Earth and Space sciences, to give the right perspective on where we stand and on the risks humanity faces. These include: dropping below the fateful CO2 threshold of 150 ppm, or a collision with a Near-Earth Object (NEO) that had not been detected in time, or that could not be destroyed or diverted (TF-PHA-NEO, 2000).

The CAGW theory is the worse ever stupid idea that the failed XXI century science 678, harnessed by political motives and supported by ideologists, will leave in its records and is being used by the dominants to enslave the gullible public.

“Give me liberty or give me death!” Patrick Henry679 (1739-1799), one of America's most outspoken Founding Fathers.

Now come the morale of the story: this is the fable of the atmospheric physicist and the climate scientist.

Fable of the atmospheric physicist and the climate scientist or a development without merit!

Within the limits of their ability in science and with the fastest computers, atmospheric physicists are hardly able to make any reliable weather forecast fifteen days ahead. Nevertheless, by deciding that the problem was no longer depending on the initial conditions, but rather a boundary one enabling sensitivity studies, and by adding one single grossly irrelevant variable, carbon dioxide, they felt entitled to become climate scientists and to make forecasts of changes for decades or a century ahead: this notwithstanding the fact that a number of natural cyclic driving climate have time constants well in excess such short timescales. There are irregular variations too. It was of course a hoax. The attraction to the proponents and followers of the hoax was that it provided much leverage for politicians, always eager to increase their control of the general population, and it proved to be irresistible for them. Subsidies attract followers from those with vested interests. For the rest, it unfortunately inflicts severe damage by way of reduced prosperity and more generally, erosion of the progress of society as a whole. The morale of the fable is that integrity of science has been tarnished by this quackery and group-think.

678Unfortunately, this will not be the first failed superseded theory and in a funny way “global cooling” is listed as one of them, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superseded_theories_in_science. When the Holocene will end soon and the stadial will resume it will be time to replace it with global warming and / or its substitutive designations, i.e. global change (how stupid), green revolution, etc.

679https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Henry

6. Acknowledgments

This work would not have been possible without the support of Camille Veyres 680 and the remarkable fight for the scientific truth that he and his co-workers and in particular Jacques-Marie Moranne681, the author of the book “La Physique du Climat” pursue with the association of the “climato-realists”682 led by Benoît Rittaud. Camille sent me many documents that I have used as a basis for elaborating some parts of this work, always answered my questions when I was in doubt, and furthermore his exceptional knowledge in physics and his broad understanding of the subject have given me the strength to dare put forward my ideas, not fearing to be immediately crushed by herds of critics. One should certainly not underestimate this aspect, the disparagement goes pedal down to the metal and those who dare dissent must feel strong enough to defend their informed opinion when everything is made by the CAGW theory supporters to deter them from even trying; this is self-censorship encouraged, and this is what works best. I also thank Camille Veyres for having proof-read some parts of the document and having spotted some mistakes that I left behind whatever the care I put to write this book to the best of my scientific honesty and ability. Javier Vinós, has been a great source of inspiration and I would like to thank him very much, and I strongly recommend his book published in September of 2022 (Vinós, 2022) “Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A Scientific Debate” to anyone wishing to get a clear insight in many phenomenons driving the climate; it represents more than 7 years of efforts to bring all the material he has contributed, in particular to Judith Curry's reference site, Climate Etc., https://judithcurry.com/. Javier's work is fantastic and I hope that it will be given a wide visibility.

I am very grateful to Jacques Duran683 (1942-2018) who ran for years the website in French language http://www.pensee-unique.fr (“one-track thinking” our “groupthink”) that alas does not respond any longer as June 2022, and provided so many useful analyses and insights into this strange discipline, i.e. “climate science”. Jacques Duran was initially the young student (in quantum physics) of Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, the Nobel Prize laureate in physics in 1991684, who helped and encouraged him a lot during his early work on the diffusion of energy in disordered isotopic materials, and then in the following years, particularly with regard to the research they carried out on the physics of granular matter. In 1996, P.-G. de Gennes, then director of ESPCI, proposed to Jacques Duran to come and work with him as Director of Studies and their collaboration continued until de Gennes' disappearance in 2007.

Duran's death in 2018 put very unfortunately an end to the critical analysis of the many articles he reviewed on his website. It is by reading Jacques Duran that I was confirmed in my opinion that nothing was going well in this discipline. Duran reminds what Gennes and Badoz (1996) wrote about their confidence in simulations “Environmental problems are often managed by "simulation" specialists, i.e. people whose competence is more in computers than in scientific data. Using a large computer, they produce predictions that seem respectable, even if the data are insufficient. This is one of the great plagues of our time. The misfortune is that many people still believe that the computer tells the truth and predicts the inevitable (the same type of belief existed in the 19th century with regard to printed text). The computer simulator is credible because its machine has a power and speed of calculation that no human brain is capable of. The snoring power of numbers plus the power of images: enough to maintain a magical pre-rational mentality in the public mind”.

The COVID-19 time might be one extraordinary example of the damages caused by the "simulation specialists” of de Gennes, as Neil Ferguson's Imperial College model and his millions of deaths in the UK alone could be the most devastating software mistake of all time (Richards and Boudnik, 2020), the most costly self-inflicted pain ever. This has been an extraordinarily challenging period for many people, including investors who rely on their investments to make a living. What ended being just slightly worse than a seasonal flu in terms of its epidemiological consequences, and could have been diagnosed as such rapidly, has led to bloated consequences by dints of disproportionate government

680Camille Veyres graduated from Ecole Polytechnique (X67), Ecole Supérieure des Télécommunications and also holds a MBA from HEC (École des hautes études commerciales de Paris) school of management.

681Jacques-Marie Moranne, the author of the book "The Physics of Climate" is an engineer from the Ecole Centrale de Lille (1969). Jacques-Marie Moranne was initially, and until the Copenhagen COP, a climate alarmist, but contradictions, both factual and physical, have awakened his critical mind, and have gradually led him to dig into the underlying physics. https://laphysiqueduclimat.fr/

682https://www.climato-realistes.fr/

683https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Duran and http://www.pensee-unique.fr/auteur.html

684Pierre-Gilles de Gennes was also one of the signatories of the “Heidelberg Appeal” which was signed by 425 members of the scientific and intellectual community skeptical of the claims of the global warming alarmists that warming was a scientifically verifiable event (HAHSG, 1992; DeWeese, T., 2002).

response and generalized lock-downs. This led to flatten everything, businesses, portfolios, hopes in the future and the only things that were not flattened have been the unemployment curve and the nations' debt which exploded.

In the wake of this disaster, scare mongers like Gates (2020) have hinted to the pretext for next massive coercion, climate change. Unfortunately, it seems that from some recent statements made by Heads of States that the terms of the “Heidelberg Appeal” made by 425 leading researchers including de Gennes and dozens of Nobel laureates has been forgotten; let's remind the following excerpt “We want to make our full contribution to the preservation of our common heritage, the Earth. We are, however, worried at the dawn of the twenty-first century, at the emergence of an irrational ideology which is opposed to scientific and industrial progress and impedes economic and social development. We do, however, forewarn the authorities in charge of our planet’s destiny against decisions which are supported by pseudoscientific arguments of false and non relevant data”.

The climate change narrative had been itching me for a long time, but this was the last straw which broke the camel's back and the hankering to put things straight became simply too great to resist. A bunch of civil servants, paid whatever happens, had not yet finished to ruin our economies with policies that destroyed all our fundamental freedoms that they jump head-on to what will be the next curse: climate change! What climate change? As long as it was just paying more taxes, the fight was not worth it, but now, here they are, ideologists talk about brutal choices: that means implementing dystopian policies on large scale. This is how I decided to gather what remained of my bruised strengths and to try, as an honest scientist, to demonstrate how foolish these future Eco lunacies and policies of fascist scents are (WBGU, 2011), (Vahrenholt von, 2011).

I am grateful to Michel Detay685 who encouraged me in various ways going trough this challenging time and kick-started my effort by sending me the must-read book from Allègre (2010) and who urged me to re-edit all equations to improve their readability and provided me with many papers on volcanology, to Pierre Haren 686 for making many suggestions to help improve the book but I am afraid that a new version will have to be edited to match his expectations, to Brendan Godwin for pointing to inconsistencies in my first attempt to devise a new Carbon Budget (p. 128) and for the various excellent papers he pointed my attention to, thanks to Michael Brown who made much appreciated improvements, to Jean-Claude Maurin687 for his careful, kind and insightful reviewing, to the Pr. Harald G. Dill, Badar Latif, Dan Pangburn, Dr. Janusz Pudykiewicz, to Michael Sidiropoulos for his kind and supportive words, to Kosma Szutkowski and all colleagues who cheered me up, especially on Researchgate, whenever necessary.

Special thanks to Zark Bedalov688, from Vancouver (British Columbia, Canada), the author of Wiley book “Practical Power Plant Engineering689”, for the extremely careful reading he made of the entire document of my first edition, in a very supportive way, to Achim Lohse and also to other individuals who checked the book but wished to remain anonymous. I am grateful to “Researchgate” and “Academia” who facilitate the work of independent researchers, who otherwise meet difficulties getting some articles when they do not benefit of the access facilities offered to affiliated persons and institutions. They truly contribute to lifting the embargo otherwise put on knowledge by some dominant publishers. I am very grateful to the Apache Software Foundation and the OpenOffice Community, this document would not exist without them. Finally the “pdf” file generated is compressed to make it smaller and easier to download using a great tool: https://www.ilovepdf.com/compress_pdf

I must also mention all those who cheered me up, congratulated me for my work and encouraged me to go further in one way or another, including supporting my project on “Researchgate” entitled “Multi-disciplinary Perspectives on Climate and Paleo-climates”. Hopefully they have been many and I will thank especially Ijaz Ahmad, Maria Assunção Araújo, Safia Belhadj, Pr. Guus Berkhout, Maged Gumaan Bin-Saad, Artur Braun, Christopher Robin Bryant, Hugo FR Bucher, Martin Capages Jr., João Carvalho, Jamel Chahed, Kervin Chunga, Marcel Crok, Neil Dagnall, Robert David, Prof. Dr. rer. nat. habil. Harald G. Dill, Vera Maura Fernandes de Lima, Serge Ferry, Burghard W. Flemming, Dr. Patrick Frank, Dmitry Ganyushkin, John Joseph Geibel, Pr. François Gervais, Anna Geppert, Eric Gilli, Albrecht Glatzle, Pierre Gosselin,

685https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michel_Detay (D.Sc. 1987) is a renowned expert in hydrogeology and hydrovolcanology.

686Pierre Haren graduated from Ecole Polytechnique (X73) (1976) and Ecole des Ponts et Chaussées (1978) and also defended a thesis at MIT: https://www.lajauneetlarouge.com/auteur/pierre-haren-73/. Pierre initially specialized in fluid dynamics, hydrodynamics, equations of motion (Haren, 1979; Haren and Mei, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982). He joined INRIA to lead a project aiming at creating expert-system shells for engineering design. I joined his project late spring 1986 and I was the first employee of ILOG corporation (Pierre acting as CEO) even before it started thanks to Eurosept corporation led by Marc Fourrier (X73, Ponts et Chaussées) who hired me in the meantime. I'm grateful to both.

687https://www.science-climat-energie.be/author/jc-maurin/, J.-C. Maurin is “professeur agrégé de physique”.

688https://www.linkedin.com/in/zark-bedalov-035921153/

689https://www.amazon.fr/Practical-Power-Plant-Engineering-Engineers/dp/1119534941

Eugen Gradinaru, Kesten Green, Volodymyr Grytsenko, Lucy Hancock, Pr. William Happer, Rakib Hassan, Prof. Dr. rer. nat. J. Häuser, Victor Manuel Naumovich Velasco Herrera, Roger Higgs, Paul Homewood, Robert Ian Holmes, Alireza Khoshkonesh, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Sandeep Kumar, David Legates, Paulo Legoinha, Markus Lindholm, Pr. Richard Lindzen, Alexey Lyubushin, Hector Maletta, Keith Martin, Dr. rer. nat. Andreas May, Andy May, Fateh Mebarek-Oudina, Boris Menin, Philip Mulholland, Colin V. Murray-Wallace, Juan José Neiff, Franto Novico, Antonio Pasculli, Raul PerezLopez, Sébastien Point, Joseph Postma, Alain Préat, Janusz Pudykiewicz, Sergey Viktorovich Pushkin, Jacques Roturier, Benoît Rittaud, Indrani Roy, Boris A. Sheiko, Jan-Erik Solheim, Willie Soon, Ch. Srinivasrao, Kosma Szutkowski, Sachin Kumar Tripathi, Brigitte Van Vliet-Lanoë, Costas Varotsos, Alla Constantinovna Vasil'chuk, Eric Verrecchia, Frank Veroustraete, Paolo Viaggi, Wenjie Wang, Filipe Wiltgen, Gregory Wrightstone, Steven Yaskell, Ismail Omer Yilmaz, Christopher Gerard Yukna, Bogdan A. Zaitsev, Franco Zavatti and all those who helped me disseminate my work on their excellent web-sites. I apologize for all those not mentioned but not forgotten, I am also grateful to them and in particular to the 130 scholars who have recommended so far this e-Book on “Researchgate”. I also thank the 68 “followers” and 133 “recommendations” of my researchgate project “Multi-disciplinary Perspectives on Climate and Paleo-climates” and the 498 researchers who have followed me back and thus provided support to this work. They come from all scientific disciplines and show the broad spectrum of interest that this work has generated and I am grateful to them for that. I have also very much appreciated the many personal messages of encouragement that I have received. Each one of them was important for me.

A special mention to those who kindly permitted me to use their material and some figures with a particular mention of gratitude for Patrick Frank, Ole Humlum, Camille Veyres and Javier Vinós.

I also thank all those who have kept challenging me on the various threads of discussion dealing with the subject, in particular over Researchergate and over the Clintel's email exchange lists. They have contributed by bringing a skillful opposition to the ideas I developed to making them clearer, better expressed and therefore stronger. It may not have been their intent, but in the end it was the result. That was the strongest form of all peer-reviewing efforts.

Finally a couple of individuals, deserve a special mention, because full of their self-confidence and bloated of conceit and contempt for the other scientists, by thinking that they are the only ones to understand exceptionally complex notions such as a log-response (!) when any 15 years old youngster who gets a basic training in science already knows it, and one of them calling “dissenters” like me “morons”, gave me even more strength to smirk at their slighting and work more to debunk the fake arguments of these pompous windbags full of condescension. They reminded me the saying of Georges Courteline690 “"Passer pour un idiot aux yeux d'un imbécile est une volupté de fin gourmet." or as automatically translated by Deepl691 "Looking like an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet's delight." Isn't it ? One of them has even become the dregs of the “troll” activity, posting several messages everyday on Researchgate discussion threads, pretending making a “review” of my book when it was just an accumulation of libel, disparagement, slanders, etc. Such deranged individual would normally not deserve a single line in a book like this, but they are so much representative and living caricatures of the arrogance of some in this climate science community that I could not refrain mentioning them elliptically. The goal is of course, by these despicable means, to try to silence people like me. The stakes must be high for those people to resort to such hatred and such obnoxious methods. One must know that by exposing the castle of cards of the pseudo-science used to scare the gullible people, one becomes a target. One will observe that this individual was affiliated with ECN, a dutch organization that drew some attention for the curious ethics of its former director (nos, 2016; rondjeschagen, 2016). Those in the role and their fellows will recognize themselves, they well deserve a medal, I let the reader decide which one.

I could only fly over this immense subject with great pleasure, but also with a certain lightness in order to tell the extraordinarily complex history of the climate over time and the parameters influencing it. I am sure I will be criticized in places for accommodating what should be an even more rigorous presentation, but the reader will keep in mind that each chapter or section deserves a book of its own. A narrative choice had to be made that would preserve the interest of the reading without distorting the subject too much, while showing its very large scope. At least, I hope to have demonstrated by the breadth of the topic that there is no way to regard carbon dioxide as the climate’s ultimate magical ‘control knob’, a stance sadly promoted by the “catastrophists” for which the science is largely irrelevant anyway as politics is their bread and butter. I also thank the Deepl translator team for their product which provides an efficient way to achieve reasonable quality at no cost. Upgrading to professional version will be a must even for small companies.

690https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Courteline

691https://www.deepl.com/ is a very good automated translator and I thank them for the support they provided for this work.

Whatever my efforts to make this e-book as accurate and reliable as possible, and the kind contributions of all the peerreviewers who helped me improve this work and there were many, physicists, earth-scientists, engineers, etc., I must state that all mistakes (there will be some, how could it be otherwise?), be they scientific, technical, linguistic (spelling or grammar) will remain mine and I apologize in advance for them and commit myself to correcting them as soon as they will be pointed out to me. I thank all the competent readers in advance who will keep helping me improve this document.

To whom this e-book is Dedicated

This work was carried out initially from the Republic of Malta (EU) at Iklin where I lived for five years (2017-2021) and I am grateful to the Maltese people for their warm welcome during all these years. I then kept on working from various places, including Gilboa (NY), Santa Rosa (CA), Nice (France), etc. This work is dedicated to late scientists, authors and intellectuals who fought for the truth and in particular against the climate scam until their very last days, and I apologize in advance for all those I forgot to mention. I admire the courage, the lucidity and the will to truth of all those I have the honor to mention now: Tim Ball692 (1938-2022), Reid Bryson693 (1920-2008), Robert M. Carter694 (1942-2016), Roger W. Cohen695 (1939-2016), Michael Crichton696 (1942-2008), John L. Daly697 (1943-2020), René Dars698 (1921-2021), Jacques Duran699 (1942-2018), Freeman Dyson700 (1923-2020) who passed away on 28 February 2020, Hugh W. Ellsaesser701 (1920-2015), Vincent Gray702 (1922-2018), William M. Gray703 (1929-2016), Zbigniew Jaworowski704 (19272011), Karin Labitzke705 (1935-2015), Harold ("Hal") Warren Lewis706 (1923–2011), Harry van Loon707 (1926-2021), István Markó708 (1956-2017) who supported me until he left us on 31 July 2017, Patrick Michaels 709 (1950-2022), Axel-Nils Mörner710 (1938-2020) who died on 16 October 2020 and was just starting a new journal “Science of Climate Change” to which I would have had the pleasure to contribute, Murry Salby (1951-2022)711, Frederick Seitz712 (1911-2008), Joanne Simpson713 (born Gerould) (1923-2010), Fred Singer714 (1924-2020).

We will thoroughly miss their intelligence and scientific honesty.

692https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Ball 693https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_Bryson 694https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_M._Carter. Shame on William Connolley for his post (Connolley, 2016) who grossly paraphrasing Max Planck supposedly saying "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it". Stated “Today brings us news of another such advancement in science, with the reported death of Robert Carter”. Shame on you, William Connolley, scientific truth advances because it is proven correct, not because an entire generation of illiterate have been indoctrinated while waiting for the death of your opponents. You are despicable and disgusting. You just confuse science and politics.

695https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.6265/full/ and https://co2coalition.org/members/roger-cohen-phd/ 696https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Fear 697Eulogy by Ball (2016a), http://www.john-daly.com/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lawrence_Daly, 698https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/René_Dars René Dars was Professor Emeritus, Dean of the Faculty of Sciences of Nice and co-founder of the SophiaAntipolis scientific cluster. He supported me to present and defend my D.SC. I am grateful to him as to Pierre Leymarie, my advisor. 699https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Duran

700https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeman_Dyson

701https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/80246443-Hugh-W-Ellsaesser

702https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_R._Gray

703https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray 704https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zbigniew_Jaworowski 705https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karin_Labitzke 706https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Lewis – Nodoubt that “Hal” was a free-thinker, He, along with the other theoretical physics professors at Berkeley, refused to sign the McCarthy era loyalty oath on principle, and in 1950 left for Princeton. 707https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Harry-Van-Loon alas Mikael van Loon informed me that his father Harry had passed away on Dec 13, 2021. I suppose Harry was born in 1925, because he said in his interview with von Storch “Well, I will be 80 next year (2005) for heaven's sake” or rather in 1926 because he also said that he stepped down from the NACR position as scientist IV in 1991 because he was 65 years old. 708https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/István_Markó https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Istvan_Marko 709https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Michaels 710https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils-Axel_Mörner 711https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murry_Salby and https://www.mck.org.au/search/55952 712https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Seitz 713https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanne_Simpson see also Pielke, R. A., Sr. (2008) 714https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Singer

7. About the Author

7.1. Author's

Credentials

I graduated in Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Remote Sensing with a Diplôme d’Etudes Approfondies, DEA (Master of Advanced Studies) from Ecole des Mines de Paris / CTAMN (1982) - First in my class ("Mention Très Bien", i.e. grade point average > 18/20). I defended a Doctorat d'Etat ès Sciences (D.Sc.) in Geochemistry, Geo-Mathematics and Geo-Informatics (1986) at University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis and INRIA (National Research Institute in Computer Science and Automation) - "Mention très honorable et félicitations du jury".

As co-founder and very first employee of ILOG in 1986 (even before the formal creation of the corporation), I contributed to the development of this software company which later had offices in Europe, US and Asia and was listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange before a buy out by IBM in 2009. I joined CSTB in 1989 and led the Computer Integrated Division until 2001. I was involved in many European research projects in the area of integration in manufacturing. I also was an active reviewer in ESPRIT and was involved in assessing projects in different areas. In 2001 I created and led the SAIL department (Software Applications and Integration) with 5 divisions: software development, virtual reality, data and systems' integration, facilities management, advanced models for finite element analysis. In 2004, I was in charge of software matters and policy before I left CSTB in 2005. I am also an experienced trader since 1996 and developed together with my associate a state of the art expert-system to implement our trading methods (i.e. TEXSOL, Trading Expert-Systems On-Line) and to develop the art and technique of trading automation, with deployment on the US and French markets (stocks, ETFs, indexes).

I have an interest in various domains like Earth and Planetary Sciences, Astronomy, Finance and Trading, Integration in Manufacturing and Design, Simulation and Defense Systems, etc. I published 38 articles mostly in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 6 books jointly-reviewed with colleagues, 6 peer-reviewed chapters in books, 64 papers in peerreviewed conferences, one D.Sc. thesis (1986), and 32 scientific and technical reports for demanding public and private clients and acted as an expert reviewer for several EC R&D projects.

Given the importance taken by climate simulation systems (i.e. software) I will stress that most of my professional career was devoted to Applied Computer Science in various domains like:

• Geochemistry, Hydrogeology, expert-systems in Earth and Planetary Sciences, e.g. (Leymarie and Poyet, 1983; Poyet and Leymarie, 1983; Poyet, 1986; Poyet and Detay, 1988a-b-c; Poyet and Detay, 1989a-b-c, 1990; Detay et al., 1989; Detay and Poyet, 1989; Leymarie, 1989; Detay and Poyet, 1990a-b-c-d; Detay et al., 1991; Poyet, 1992; Poyet and Detay, 1992),

• Simulation and Defense Systems, e.g. (Poyet, 1987; Poyet et al., 1987; Poyet, 1988; Poyet and De La Cruz, 1988; Poyet and Haren, 1988; Poyet et al., 1989; Tomasini et al., 1991),

• Applied Artificial Intelligence, e.g. (Poyet and Delcambre, 1989, 1990; Poyet, 1990; Poyet et al., 1990, 1991, 1992; Debras et al., 1991),

• Computer and Software Integration in Construction, Manufacturing and Design, Concurrent Engineering and Virtual Enterprises e.g. (Poyet, 1993; Tolman and Poyet, 1994; Poyet, 1994; Poyet and Dubois, 1995; Poyet et al., 1995, 2002, 2004; Poyet and Monceyron, 1997a-b; Monceyron and Poyet, 1997; Poyet and Zarli, 1997, 1999; Sandakly et al., 2001; Zarli et al., 1997; Zarli and Poyet, 1999a-b, 2017),

• Finance and Trading, e.g. (Poyet and Besse, 2005a-b; Poyet, 2012),

• Astronomy and Planetology, e.g. (Poyet, 1982, 1985, 2014, 2017a-b, 2019; Poyet et al., 2014).

I have been interested in comparative planetology for a very long time (Poyet, 1982, 1985) and since 2015, I have spent some time on computing double stars' orbits (Poyet, 2017a-b, 2019) but mainly studying paleo-climates, climate drivers, and natural climate change (Poyet, 2021a-b).

My friends refer to me as a polymath, my foes as a “touches everything”, the truth must be in between. I always try to gather enough knowledge on any given subject I work on as to have a large perspective on it and avoid too narrow of a specialization that would blur the broad picture. That's also why, given my my initial training in earth-sciences and the

thousands of papers I have read on the climate subject and the past experiences I have in deploying computer systems in so many domains as listed above and simulation systems in particular, I have a special perspective on climate science, what has become a controversial domain, rather a real mine field if one does not stick to the one-sided dominant groupthink.

Thus, I have been legitimately and logically using my initial training and my passion for Earth and Space sciences plus my long professional experience of software design and development and in particular of simulation systems to completely revisit the subject of climate and paleo-climates. This led me to publish the first version of the “Rational Climate e-Book” at the end of 2020 that drew some attention over the next year and a half, with tens of thousands of downloads (more than 18,000 on “Researchgate715” alone and more than a hundred scientists who recommended my work in June 2022) and also several thousand users from all over the world on my private web site “patricepoyet.org”, both from the public and the scientific community.

I have the pleasure to thank all those who contributed to make this work better known to the public as I had no specific marketing means. In that respect I wish to thank Andy May who wrote a “Book Review” 716 for the well known Antony Watts' website “https://wattsupwiththat.com/”, and to thank Antony Watts for welcoming this review and also for relaying Pierre Gosselin's review717 of my work that was also published on Pierre's website718 “https://notrickszone.com/”. I also have the pleasure to thank Paul Homewood for making a review on his site 719 and supporting me as well as Guus Berkhout and Marcel Crock of Clintel720 who publicized as well my work. Thanks to all of them for their invaluable support. This book has also enabled me to be acknowledged as an expert in various domains, including in how much geochemistry, my initial training, is a discipline that offers an outstanding scientific background for the interpretation of the paleoclimate records, but also in many other areas having a link to paleoclimate an climate change in general, given that the ebook resorts very much to polymath knowledge. This first effort has also enabled me to extend further contacts with a host of colleagues, like legendary physicists Richard Lindzen or William Happer, but also many great scientists and if I were to be naming only a few I would also have to apologize to all the others that I would have forgotten to mention, but who remain in my heart for the support they provided me.

7.2. Author's Motivations

I had been in stark disagreement with the official doxa for decades, but the first startling alert came when François Hollande (a former French President) stated (in French) at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, on September 28, 2015 that tsunamis and earthquakes will be the result of uncontrolled anthropic global warming (Hollande, 2015b). He was obviously deluded by his own entourage who certainly ensured him that no doubt

715https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347150306_The_Rational_Climate_e-Book?_sg%5B1%5D= 716https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/18/the-rational-climate-e-book/ 717https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/05/climate-researchers-new-e-book-ipcc-significantly-overstates-co2-the-sorry-state-of-climate-science/ 718https://notrickszone.com/2021/02/05/climate-researchers-new-e-book-ipcc-significantly-overstates-co2-the-sorry-state-of-climate-science/ 719https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/01/27/the-rational-climate-e-book-by-patrice-poyet/ 720https://clintel.org/the-rational-climate-e-book/

remained, that science was settled and that the alleged urgency would require to further force the line in his presentation to maximize political impact. How Heads of States would know? But for a Geo-scientist like me, if he had said that the Earth was flat and the Sun turning around us as believed for eighteen centuries, it would not have been more shocking.

Unless plate-tectonics and convective motions in the Earth's mantle driving the drift of the plates and thus earthquakes and tsunamis would become sensitive to extremely scarce CO2 molecules in the atmosphere by some magical thinking, how such statements could be made? it was a clear message that the official word of a great scientific and industrial nation was totally discredited. When the dominants and the “warmunists” unveiled their agenda further in a clearer way, saying that if Covid was bad, wait until climate-change to see what we can impose on you, the people, I thought that no one could remain idle awaiting the violation of the most fundamental rights of the citizens based on a pretext relying on some fallacious conjecture and phony science. The more I dug into the subject for which I had had a long standing interest anyway and for which I had gathered a massive pool of articles and references, the more I had to acknowledge how little science there was left in the official group-think and how much politics was in fact at play. That triggered me into action and the truth, not always good to say, remains a legitimate ideal.

The entire climate science rests on very thin ice, i.e. the credibility of computer models. Given that beyond my initial training in Earth and Planetary Sciences, software is what I have done my entire life, i.e. applied computer science, I am well equipped to evaluate how sound the claims of the alarmists can be. Be it for the modeling of geochemical or hydro-geochemical anomalies and the spreading of various species and compounds in the aquifers, for the physics of undersea sound propagation used to derive bathymetric models required for submarine simulation warfare, for Kalman filter-based carrier motion simulation to facilitate A.I. assisted aircraft landing, for missile handling and target motion analysis and pursuit, for underground water modeling to ensure village water supply in Africa (e.g. North Cameroon), for data and software integrated models in construction and engineering, for CAD representation and exchange, for computing double stars orbits, etc., computer models are always the same: just models that strive to stick to reality, mimicking somehow some properties of the real world. But the more complex the system modeled is, the less it can pretend to accurately represent the reality.

Since I published the “The Rational Climate e-Book: Cooler is Riskier. The Sorry State of Climate Science and Policies” (Poyet, 2021b) and the “Book Review: “Politics & Climate Science - A HISTORY” by Andy May” (Poyet, 2021a), the more flak I have gotten has always come from the most ignorant and indoctrinated activists, this must be an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect721. They never read my work, sometimes download it to claim that they read it all in 5 minutes, to declare immidiately that it is all crap and nonsense, when to be honest, most often, they do not have the slightest training or background to understand the simplest notions that are dealt with in this book. They generally lack the most basic scientific training and their unassailable arguments are generally limited to “more CO 2 cause warming, can't you understand that?” coupled with “How could you be alone in being right against such a (put the number you wish, e.g. 97%) consensus?”. Most of the scientists who disagree with me have mainly avoided arguing or simply challenging me, they probably though that they had bigger fishs to fry as Hansen said of Dyson, or that ignoring me was easier than to face a tough opponent who knows perfectly all the weaknesses of a flawed theory.

In the end It’s the battle of the two cultures as first articulated by Snow (1959). As John Parmentola 722 told me “one culture uses facts and logic to understand how the world we live in works. The other imagines other worlds deciding which of them they like at the moment through a made up story”.

7.3. Author's Disclosure of Interests

The author declares no conflict of interests. For the research I was not given any grant. I received no funding whatsoever. Nor am I a member of any climate committees (political or other) or am I linked to companies or NGOs, financially or otherwise. I am not a member of any political party or movement. This is an independent work that represents only the personal opinion of the author based on the work exposed. The author has been a recent regular member of the association of the climato-realistes.fr/, since October 2020.

721https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

722https://johnparmentola.com/

The dystopian vision

“Indeed, Granpa, tell what life was like before Climate Policies”

“You see my little ones, as Gervais (2018) reminded us in his excellent book, less than three centuries ago we used to travel on foot, on horseback or on a cariole, in a rowing boat or a sailboat. The land was cultivated with a plough pulled by a domestic animal and the goods were transported in galleons or oxcarts. Even the richest castles were loosely heated with wood, and at nightfall, people tried to work in a fleeting and fickle candlelight. Laundry kept the women busy at the wash-house and the economy was largely local and self-sufficient. Energy was provided by wood burning, draught animals, wind and river currents. Then came the industrial revolution, fossil fuels, nuclear power and globalization. In 2019, before the Covid virus appeared in the Wuhan Province (Relman, 2020; Rogin, 2021; Harrison and Sachs, 2022), the world had changed more in 100 years than in 2 million years of human adventure. Then the GRUNZIs723 imposed a global zero-carbon emissions project, had delusional ideas like a social cost of carbon by demonizing carbon dioxide as a pollutant when it had only advantages and a considerable private benefit of more than $400 per ton (Tol, 2017), and soon enough, due to climate policies and the ecological transition, electricity had started to be in short supply with outages in winter when we needed it the most (Worrall, 2019; Four, 2021), then a massive recession ensued and led to social disorders such that survivors like us of this Malthusian project ended up in the Stone Age. The problem is that as the climate has naturally changed and become colder, most of the few economic survivors have frozen to death, whereas IPCC's RCP 8.5 had forecast a warming of up to 5°C. But we should congratulate ourselves on having a smaller carbon footprint.” - Grandpa to his seldom grand-children, 2100.

723The obvious disdain for the fundamental civil rights and freedoms of the citizens, democracy and the parliamentary system expressed by many climate and green activists and alas even a number of climate scientists is also clear in the German “Changing World, Social Contract for a Great Transformation” (WBGU, 2011) and thus can be considered as a modern form of “Die Grünen sozialismus”, i.e. GRUNZI.

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Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2016a. Papers Supporting a Skeptical-of-the-Consensus Position for 2016. 500 peer-reviewed papers published in 2016 supporting the skeptical position that natural factors are in fact a dominant climate driver. https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2016/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2016b. Skeptic Papers 2016 (1), I. Solar Influence On Climate (133), II. Natural Oceanic/Atmospheric Oscillation (ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO, AMOC) Influence On Climate (45), III. Natural Ozone Variability and Climate (3), IV. A Questionable To Weak Influence Of Humans, CO2 On Climate (12), V. Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity (5), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2016-1/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2016c. Skeptic Papers 2016 (2), I. Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (34), II. Warmer Holocene Climate, Non-Hockey Sticks (40), III. No Net Regional Warming Since Early- Mid-20th Century (15), IV. The Uncooperative Cryosphere: Polar Ice Sheets, Sea Ice (34), V. Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (Dansgaard-Oeschger Events) (8), VI. Ocean Acidification? (14), VII. Natural Climate Catastrophes – Without CO2 Changes (4), VIII. Recent Cooling In The North Atlantic (3), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2016-2/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2016d. Skeptic Papers 2016 (3), I. Failing/Failed Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (10), II. Climate Model Unreliability/Biases and the Pause (34), III. Elevated CO2 Greens Planet, Raises Crop Yields (10), IV. Wind Turbines, Solar Utilities Endangering Wildlife (7), V. Heat Not Hazardous To Polar Bears, Humans (3), VI. Less Extreme, Unstable Weather With Warming (15), VII. No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (3), VIII. No Increasing Trends In Drought Frequency, Severity (7), IX. Urban Surfaces Cause (Artificial) Warming (4), X. ‘Settled’ Science Dismantled (3), XI. Natural CO2, Methane Sources Out-Emit Humans (3), XII. Fires, Anthropogenic Climate Change Disconnect (5), XIII. Miscellaneous (4), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2016-3/ Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2017a. Skeptic Papers 2017 (1), Solar Influence On Climate (121), ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (44), Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (13), Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (10), Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (6), The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (15), https://notrickszone.com/skepticpapers-2017-1/

725Tony Heller writes under the pen-name of Steven Goddard

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2017b. Skeptic Papers 2017 (2), Lack Of Anthropogenic/ CO 2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (39), No Net Warming During 20th (21st) Century (13), A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (60), Abrupt, Degrees-PerDecade Natural Global Warming (7), A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (34), Antarctic Ice Melting In High Geothermal Heat Flux Areas (4), Recent Cooling In The North Atlantic, Southern Ocean (10), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers2017-2/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2017c. Skeptic Papers 2017 (3), Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (28), Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (12), Wind Power Harming The Environment, Biosphere (8), Elevated CO 2 Greens Planet, Produces Higher Crop Yields (14), Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (8), Warming, Acidification Not Harming Oceanic Biosphere (18), Decreases In Extreme, Unstable Weather With Warming (3), Urban Heat Island: Raising Surface Temperatures Artificially (5), No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (4), No Increasing Trends In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (3), Natural CO2, Methane Sources Out-Emit Human Source (4), Increasing Snow Cover Since The 1950s (3), Miscellaneous (7) Scientists: We Don’t Know (3), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2017-3/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2018a. Skeptic Papers 2018 (1), 1. Climate Change Observation, Reconstruction (190), No Net Warming Since Mid/Late 20th Century (36), A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (77), Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (16), Sea Levels Multiple Meters Higher 4,000-7,000 Years Ago (18), A ModelDefying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (34), Mass Extinction Events Caused By Glaciation, Sea Level Fall (3), Antarctic Ice Melting In High Geothermal Heat Flux Areas (2), Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (5), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2018-1/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2018b. Skeptic Papers 2018 (2), 2. Natural Mechanisms Of Weather, Climate Change (153), Solar Influence On Climate (104), ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (22), Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (8), Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (4), Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (3), The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (13), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2018-2/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2018c. Skeptic Papers 2018 (3), 3. Unsettled Science, Failed Climate Modeling (161), Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors (27), Urban Heat Island: Raising Surface Temperatures Artificially (5), Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (18), Wind Power Harming The Environment, Biosphere (19), Elevated CO2: Greens Planet, Higher Crop Yields (20), Polar Bear (and other) Populations Not Decreasing (10), Global Warming Saves Lives. Cold Kills. (9), Warming, Acidification Not Harming Oceanic Biosphere (11), Coral Bleaching Is A Natural, Non-Anthropogenic Phenomenon (2), No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes/Storms (8), No Increasing Trend In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (7), Natural CO2 Emissions A Net Source, Not A Net Sink (5), Global Fire Frequency Declining As CO2 Rises (2), CO2 Changes Lag Temperature Changes By 1000+ Years (3), Global Losses/Deaths From Weather Disasters Declining (2), No AGW Changes To Hydrological Cycle Detectable (6), Peak Oil As Myth (3), Miscellaneous (16), https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2018-3/

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Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2019a. Skeptic Papers 2019 (1), A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2019-1/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2019b. Skeptic Papers 2019 (2), Solar Influence On Climate, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers2019-2/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2019c. Skeptic Papers 2019 (3), Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2019-3/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2020a. Skeptic Papers 2020 (1), A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2020-1/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2020b. Skeptic Papers 2020 (2), Solar Influence On Climate, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers2020-2/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2021a. Skeptic Papers 2021 (2), A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers-2021-1/

Gosselin, P. L., and Richard, K., 2021a. Skeptic Papers 2021 (2), Solar Influence On Climate, https://notrickszone.com/skeptic-papers2021-2/

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Poyet, P. 1982. Géologie Planétaire. Comptes Rendus des Séminaires à l'Observatoire de Nice, At Observatoire de Nice, France, Vol.2, n°1. 535-V-1-V8, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3326.0166

Poyet, P., and Leymarie, P., 1983. Litho-geochemistry and relationships with potential Uranium mineralizations. Proc. Fifth Meeting on Uranium Exploration Methods and Techniques, European Commission, 24th November, Brussels, Belgium, 4 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128548, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4293.4401

Poyet, P. 1985. Apport de la planétologie à la connaissance de la croûte terrestre primitive. Bulletin de la Societe Geologique de France, 1(1):5, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3367.7443

Poyet, P., 1985. Sélection des anomalies de géochimie des eaux liées à d'éventuelles minéralisations uranifères. Développement d'un logiciel de traitement des données géochimiques. Report number: CEA-ARMINES n° MC-14.738, Bibliothèque de l'Ecole des Mines de Paris. CTAMN/85/R/05, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1901.3760

Poyet, P., 1986. Méthodes de Discrimination des Anomalies Géochimiques Multi-élémentaires Significatives - Un Système d'Aide à la Décision en Prospection Uranifère, Thesis for: Doctorat d'Etat ès Sciences, D.Sc., “Sciences de la planète et de l'Univers” [Earth and Universe Sciences], INRIA/Université de Nice, Advisor: Pierre Leymarie, magna cum laude 730, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3781.9847, https://www.theses.fr/031473717

Poyet, P., 1987. La structure de contrôle dans les systèmes experts de simulation. Proc. 6ème Congrès Reconnaissance des Formes et Intelligence Artificielle de l'Association Française de Cybernétique Economique et Technique, Antibes, France, 16-20

730Mention très honorable avec les félicitations du jury.

November, Editions Dunod Informatique, ISBN 2-04-013480-8, Vol. 2, p. 723-738, https://www.academia.edu/30164279, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3257.6969

Poyet, P., Haren, P., and De La Cruz, P., 1987. Un système expert de simulation navale. Proc. 6ème Congrès Reconnaissance des Formes et Intelligence Artificielle de l'Association Française de Cybernétique Economique et Technique, Antibes, France, 1620 November, Editions Dunod Informatique, ISBN 2-04-013475-1, Vol 1, p. 587-592, https://www.academia.edu/30164536, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1160.5446

Poyet, P., and De La Cruz, P., 1988. Une Nouvelle Classe de Simulateurs Destinée aux Aides Tactiques et aux Systèmes d'Armes. Proc. Eigth International Workshop: Expert System & Their Applications, Avignon (France), Vol. Specialized Conferences, ISBN 2906899-07-0, p. 89-99, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3650.9121

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1988a. Hydroexpert : aide à l'implantation d'ouvrages d'hydraulique villageoise. Proc. Eigth International Workshop: Expert System & Their Applications, Avignon (France), Vol. 2, May 30 - June 3, ISBN 2-906899-07-0, p. 397-410, https://www.academia.edu/30015266, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4699.4889

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1988b. L'Avènement d'une Génération de Systèmes Experts de Terrain. Proc. of Sahel Forum on the Stateof-the-Art of Hydrology and Hydrogeology in the Arid and Semi Arid Areas of Africa, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Edited by Misganaw Demissie and Glenn E. Stout, International Water Resources Association, Illinois, ISBN 0-923227-05-9, p. 800-811, https://www.academia.edu/30159582, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4912.4809

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1988c. Un système expert d’aide à l’implantation de forages en hydraulique villageoise. Rapport de Recherche de l’Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique, n°936, Décembre, 38 p., ISSN 0249-6399. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2078.0488/1

Poyet, P., and Haren, P., 1988. Artificial Intelligence Modelling of Complex Systems. Chapter in peer-reviewed book: Modeling Techniques and Tools for Computer Performance Evaluation, p. 265-290, Plenum publishing corporation, Ramon Puigjaner and Dominique Potier (eds.), DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4613-0533-0_18

Poyet, 1988. Réalisation d'un Prototype de Simulateur Expert d'Aide au Commandement de Sous-Marins. Technical Report, ILOG S.A., 174 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128543, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.2856.7685

Poyet, P., and Delcambre, B., 1989. NOE: Expert System on Technical Inspection of Waterproofing on Flat Roofs. IABSE Colloquium, Expert Systems in Civil Engineering, Bergamo, Published by the International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering, ISBN 3-85748-058-0, Vol 58, p. 175-187, http://dx.doi.org/10.5169/seals-44905

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1989a. HYDROLAB: an example of a new generation of compact expert systems. Computers & Geosciences, Vol. 15, n°3, p.255-267, DOI: 10.1016/0098-3004(89)90039-3

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1989b. HYDROLAB: Un système expert de poche en hydraulique villageoise. Technique et Science Informatiques, Vol. 8, n°2, p. 157-167.

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1989c. Enjeux Sociaux et Industriels de l'Intelligence Artificielle en Hydraulique Villageoise. Proc. Première Conférence et Exposition Européenne sur les Techniques et les Applications de l'Intelligence Artificielle en milieu Industriel, Paris, Editions Scientifiques et Techniques Hermes, ISBN 2-86601-171-6, Vol. 2, p.621-652, https://www.academia.edu/30159769, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3601.7604

Poyet, P., De la Cruz, P., Miléo, T., Loiseau, J.-N., 1989. Récentes Études en Matière de Simulations Tactiques Intelligentes. Proc. Ninth International Workshop: Expert System & Their Applications, Avignon (France), May 29-June 2, Vol. Specialized Conferences A.I. and Defense, ISBN 2-906899-24-0, p. 149-181, https://www.academia.edu/30160735, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4126.0482

Poyet, P., 1990. Integrated access to information systems. Applied Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 4, n°3, p. 179-238, DOI: 10.1080/08839519008927949

Poyet, P., and Delcambre, B., 1990. Noé: Vers une Base de Connaissances Multi-Services en Étanchéité de Toitures Terrasses. Proc. EuropIA 90, Deuxième Conf. Européenne sur les Applications de l'Intelligence Artificielle et de la Robotique en Architecture et Génie Civil, Liège, Belgique, ISBN 2-86601-229-1, Vol. 1, p. 228-235, https://www.academia.edu/30128106, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1851.2000

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1990. Compact expert system for water resources assessment in Africa. Proc. of the 28th International Geological Congress, selected papers on Hydrogeology, Washington, D.C., USA, July 9-19 1989, Vol.1, p.417-430, Simpson E. S. and Sharp, Jr., J. M., (eds.), Verlag Heinz Heise, ISBN 3-922705-60-X, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3339.6166

Poyet, P., Dubois, A.M., and Delcambre, B., 1990. Artificial Intelligence Software Engineering in Building Engineering. ComputerAided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 5, n°3, p. 167-205, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8667.1990.tb00376.x

Poyet, P., 1991. Introduction to the special issue "Artificial Intelligence and Construction: Research in Europe". Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 6, Issue 4, p. 263-265, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8667.1991.tb00257.x

Poyet, P., 1992. Computer-Aided Decision Techniques for Hydrogeochemical Uranium Exploration. In peer-reviewed book: Use of Microcomputers in Geology, Chapter 3, p. 25-71, ISBN 978-1-4899-2337-0, Plenum Publishing Corporation - Springer Science, Hans-Kürzl and Daniel F. Merriam (eds.), DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4899-2335-6_3

Poyet, P., and Detay, M., 1992. Artificial Intelligence Tools and Techniques for Water-Resources Assessment in Africa. In peerreviewed book: Use of Microcomputers in Geology, Chapter 7, p.119-159, ISBN 978-1-4899-2337-0, Plenum Publishing Corporation - Springer Science, Hans-Kürzl and Daniel F. Merriam (eds.), DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4899-2335-6_7

Poyet, P., Brisson, E., and Debras, P., 1992. Computer assisted anti-seismic design - the detached houses case study. Building and Environment, Vol. 27, Issue 4, p. 483-492, DOI: 10.1016/0360-1323(92)90046-R

Poyet, P., 1993. Évolution des pratiques informatiques dans le secteur de la construction. Cahiers du CSTB, Livraison 340, Cahier 2660, 31 pp, ISSN 008-9850, pdf file is available at https://www.academia.edu/30128521 and https://www.researchgate.net/

Poyet, P., 1994. Concurrent Large Scale Engineering Solutions: product models and software architectures ISO 10303 STEP / TC184 / SC4 WG3 Meeting, Automation systems and integration — Product data representation and exchange, 16-21 Oct. 1994, Greenville, S.C., USA, 26 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128536, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1538.8165

Poyet, P., Dubois, A.-M., 1995. Software Environments for Integrated Construction. In peer-reviewed book: Integrated Construction Information, Chapter: 13, Publisher: E & FN Spon an imprint of Chapman & Hall, Boundary Row, London SE1 8HN, Peter Brandon and Martin Betts (eds.), p. 211-227, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4093.2801

Poyet, P., Monceyron, J.-L., and Sauce, G., 1995. Building Services: Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning. Report number: ISO TC184/SC4/WG3 N497 (T12) - Part 228 - Working Draft, Affiliation: ISO, 41 pp. + Figures, https://www.academia.edu/30128073

Poyet, P., Zarli, A., Besse, G., and Monceyron, J.-L., 1995. KBS and STEP architectural CAD Systems (The integration of STEP compliant KBS and CAD systems in Building Design). Revue internationale de CFAO et d’informatique graphique [International Journal of CAD/CAM and Computer Graphics], Vol. 10, n°1-2, p.45-55, https://www.academia.edu/30128069, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4587.5846

Poyet, P., and Monceyron, J.-L., 1997a. Les classes d'objets IFCs - Finalités et mode d'emploi. Cahiers du CSTB, Livraison 383, Cahier 2986, 17 pp, pdf file is available at https://www.academia.edu/30128074/ and https://www.researchgate.net/

Poyet, P., and Monceyron, J.-L., 1997b. Methods and tools for handling multiple view subsets of product models in a distributed, data sharing environment. ISO 10303 STEP/TC184/SC4 WG3 Meeting, Automation systems and integration — Product data representation and exchange, 1-6th June 1997, San Diego, CA, USA, 27 pp., available at https://www.academia.edu/30128072, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3112.3845

Poyet, P., and Zarli, 1997. Distributed objects and architectures for distributed enterprises. Proceedings of Product Data Technology Days 1997, 14 to 16 April, Sophia Antipolis, France, Invited paper as Conference Organizer, https://www.academia.edu/30128085, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1777.7288

Poyet, P., and Zarli, 1999. Computer Integrated Construction towards Distributed Objects and Architectures for Virtual Enterprises. Invited white paper presented at ISO 10303 STEP/TC184/SC4 WG3 Meeting, Automation systems and integration - Product data representation and exchange, 26-28th Jan. 1999, San Francisco, CA, USA, 15 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128082, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4819.6162

Poyet, P., Zarli, A., and Besse, G., 2002. Vers une Généralisation de l'Usage de la Norme STEP dans le secteur du Bâtiment. CSTB, Report number: SAIL/02-1405, 115 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128071, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4909.8566

Poyet, P., Bus, N., and Keilholz, W., 2004. Etude et propositions pour l’avenir logiciel du CSTB. CSTB (ed.), 162pp., pdf file at https://www.academia.edu/30128509 and https://www.researchgate.net/, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3473.4727

Poyet, P., and Besse, G., 2005a. Systèmes Experts de Trading en Ligne - Trading Expert Systems On Line TExSOL ®, 194pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128494, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1212.4809

Poyet, P., and Besse, G., 2005b. COSMOS Hedge Funds and Trading Expert-System TEXSOL - A White Paper, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15019.75044

Poyet, P., 2012. Twelve answers to John P. Hussman's Financial QUIZZ. 23 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128507 DOI: 10.13140/2.1.2596.2247

Poyet, P., Vida, J.-P., and Abad, J., 2014. « Jas de Tardivy » Observatory in Caussols - Brief History and Some Deep-Sky Images. 29 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128511, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1313.8885

Poyet, P., 2014. Revisiting the Collision of D/1993 F2 (Shoemaker–Levy) with Jupiter 20 years later: a Planisphere is worth a thousand words. 12 pp., https://www.academia.edu/30128508, DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1979.3927

Poyet, P., 2017a. Calculating visual binaries’ orbits: should it ever be fully automated ? Discussing 13 stars with 8 first-time orbits, 43 p., https://www.academia.edu/34358613, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35677.92647

Poyet, P., 2017b. Spreadsheet of "Calculating visual binaries' orbits: should it ever be fully automated ? Discussing 13 stars with 8 first-time orbits", DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15290.90569

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321154995_Spreadsheet_of_Calculating_visual_binaries'_orbits_should_it_ever_be_fully _automated_Discussing_13_stars_with_8_first-time_orbits

Poyet, P., 2019. Calculating visual binaries’ orbits: should it ever be fully automated ? Discussing 13 stars with 8 first-time orbits, LAP Lambert Academic Publishing, ISBN-13: 978-620-2-19802-8, ISBN-10: 6202198028, EAN 9786202198028, 43 pp.

Poyet, P., 2021a. Book Review: “Politics & Climate Science - A HISTORY” by Andy May. January 30th, 2021, 9 pp., DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29634.71365

Poyet, P., 2021b. The Rational Climate e-Book: Cooler is Riskier. The Sorry State of Climate Science and Policies. Final First Edition, April 19th, 125 Figures, 185 Equations, 473 pp., DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28648.80640

Prather, M. J., 2007. Lifetimes and time-scales in atmospheric chemistry. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Vol. 365, Issue 1856, p. 1705–1726, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2040

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Preto, N., Hinnov, L. A., DeZanche, V., Mietto, P., and Hardie, L. A., 2004. The Milankovitch interpretation of the Latemar platform cycles (Dolomites, Italy): implications for geochronology biostratigraphy, and middle Triassic carbonate accumulation. In book: Cyclostratigraphy: Approaches and Case Histories, p.167-182, DOI: 10.2110/pec.04.81.0167

Pretzsch, H., Biber, P., Schütze, G., Uhl, E., and Rötzer, T., 2014. Forest stand growth dynamics in Central Europe have accelerated since 1870. Nature Communications, Vol. 5, Article n°4967, 10 pp., DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5967

Prokoph, A., Shields, G. A., Veizer, J., 2008. Compilation and time-series analysis of a marine carbonate δ 18O, δ13C, 87Sr/86Sr and δ34S database through Earth history. Earth Science Reviews, Vol. 87, Issue 3, p. 113–133, DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2007.12.003

Prothero, D., 2003. The Late Eocene-Oligocene Extinctions. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science, Vol. 22, n°1, p. 145-165, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ea.22.050194.001045

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9. Glossary, Acronyms and Abbreviations

AABVAntarctic Bottom Water

AAMAtmospheric Angular Momentum

AAOAntarctic oscillation

ACCAntarctic Circumpolar Current

ACDAragonite Compensation Depth (see footnote p.177)

ACRAntarctic Cold Reversal

AIMAntarctic Isotope Maximum warm events

ALAeronomy Laboratory of NOAA, USA

AMOAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

AMOCAtlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AMSAccelerator mass spectrometry

AMSU-BAdvanced Microwave Sounding Unit

AOArctic Oscillation

ARCNASA Ames Research Center, USA

ARMAtmospheric Radiation Monitoring

ARTSAtmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator

ATPAdenosine 5'-triphosphate. ATP is a “currency unit” for energy in cells.

BABølling–Allerød warm period

BAOBronze Age Optimum, warm period around1350 BC – 1200 BC

BCPBiological Carbon Pump

BHMBayesian Hierarchical Modelling

C3plants are plants in which the initial product of the assimilation of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis is 3-phosphoglycerate, which contains 3 carbon atoms

C4plants—including maize, sugarcane, and sorghum—avoid photo-respiration by using another enzyme called PEP during the first step of carbon fixation. This step takes place in the mesophyll cells that are located close to the stomata where carbon dioxide and oxygen enter the plant

CCC Climate Cult Complex (C3)

CCDCalcite (or Carbonate) Compensation Depth (see footnote p.177)

CDSClimate Derangement Syndrome

CCNCloud Condensation Nuclei

CCRClear Column Radiance

CDDCognitive Dissonances Disorders

CDTCognitive Dissonance Theory

CETCentral England Temperature record

CGCMComplex coupled Global Circulation Models

CMDLNOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, USA

CMECoronal Mass Ejection

CMIPCoupled Model Inter-comparison Project

CNRSCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France

CRFCosmic Ray Flux

CRUClimatic Research Unit

CTMCretaceous Thermal Maximum

DALRDry Adiabatic Lapse Rate

DICDissolved Inorganic Carbon, DIC = [CO2] + [HCO3 ] + [CO3 2−] which is 90% in the form of bicarbonate ion HCO3 , 9% in carbonate ion CO3 2− and 1% in carbonic acid H2CO3 or CO2; see (Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow, 2001) the rebalancing between these different forms is done rapidly when the temperature, DIC or TAlk parameters change.

DODansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

DOCDissolved Organic Carbon

DOEDepartment of Energy, USA

DOIDigital Object Identifier734

DREDense Rock Equivalent

DTRDiurnal Temperature Range

ECMWFEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

EECOEarly Eocene Climate Optimum

EHIMEarly Holocene Insolation Maximum

EIEmission Index

ELPSEuropean Late Pleistocene Shift

ENSOEl Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño - La Niña)

EOSEarth Observing System (of NASA's global satellite system)

ERFEffective Radiative Forcing, see (IPCC, 2013a), p. 665, § 8.1 box 8.1 and Figure 8.1 p. 669

ETCWEarly Twentieth Century Warming

FDForbush Decrease

FWHMFull Width Half Maximum

GAOHC Global Average Ocean Heat Content

GECGlobal Electric Circuit, Earth interaction (through magnetosphere and ionized layers of the atmosphere) with the Solar wind.

GFGeothermal Flux

GHGGreenHouse Gase(s)

GISP2Greenland Ice Sheet Project II

GRIPGreenland Ice-core Project

GRUNZIDie Grünen sozialismus

Gt-Cgigatons of carbon or billion tonnes of carbon contained in carbon dioxide molecules

Gyr(Giga) i.e. Billion years

HCO Holocene Climatic Optimum

HITRANHIgh-resolution TRANsmission

IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPOInterdecadale Pacific Oscillation

IRAGInfra Red Absorption Gases

I/RAOIron/Roman Age Optimum, aka the Roman Warm Period between 250 BC and 400 AD

IRDIce-Rafted Debris

IRFImpulse Response Function, i.e. a transfer function (mostly used for CO2)

ITCZInter-Tropical Convergence Zone

KNMIKoninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut

kyr(kilo) thousand of years

LAILeaf Area Index

LALIALate Antique Little Ice Age

LGMLast Glacial Maximum

LIALittle Ice Age

LISLast Interglacial Stage

LODLength Of Day

LSLower Stratosphere

LWLongwave radiation

Ma million years ago. See Myr for further explanations.

MALRMoist Adiabatic Lapse Rate

MASMicrowave Atmospheric Sounder

MBPMarine Biological Pump

MGWModern Global Warming, i.e. a warming supposed to be different than pasts, CO2 driven

MISMarine Isotope Stage

MLOMauna Loa Observations (or Observatory)

MOModern Optimum, equivalent meaning to MGW

MOCMeridional Overturning Circulation

MOSZSAMid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity

MPAEMax-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie, Germany

MPTMid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) or mid-Brunhes Climate Transition

734https://www.doi.org/index.html

mtDNAmitochondrial DNA

MSUMicrowave Sounding Unit

MiWPMinoan Warm Period (3400-3100 BP)

MSIEAG Monthly Sea Ice Extent Anomaly Graph

MWPMedieval Warm Period (920-1100 BP)

Myrmillion years. In geology a debate remains open concerning the use of Myr (duration) plus Ma (million years ago) versus using only the term Ma. In either case the term Ma is used in geology literature conforming to ISO 31-1 (now ISO 80000-3) and NIST 811 recommended practices. Traditional style geology literature is written: “The Cretaceous started 145 Ma and ended 66 Ma, lasting for 79 Myr”.

NADWNorth Atlantic Deep Water

NAMNorthern Annular Mode

NAONorth Atlantic Oscillation – The name was given by Sir Gilbert Walker who also named the Southern Oscillation (the Pacific Oscillation is basically part of the Southern Oscillation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Walker_(physicist).

NASANational Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA

NASDANational Space Development Agency, Japan

NBS-19a carbonate standard, which has a δ13C value of +1.95‰ (Friedman et al., 1982)

NCARNational Center for Atmospheric Research

NCEPNational Center for Environmental Prediction, USA

NDIRNon-Dispersive InfraRed method

NGONon Governmental Organization

NHNorthern Hemisphere

NIACNext Ice Age Challenge is what Nature has in store for Mankind (1,500-2,000 yrs from now)

NISTNational Institute for Standards and Technology, USA

NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA

NRLNaval Research Laboratory, USA

OCDObsessive Compulsive Disorder

ODPOcean Drilling Programme

OHCOcean Heat Content

OLROutgoing Longwave Radiation (or radiative flux) emitted towards the cosmos. OLR observations are made via the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument aboard the NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft

pcparsec=210,000 astronomical units, and equates to about 3.3 light-years

PDBPee Dee Belemnite (δ13C original standard)

PDOPacific Decadal Oscillation

PETMPaleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

PFPolar Front

ppmnumber of CO2 molecules per million air molecules or parts per million

ppmvparts per million (by volume), i.e. 10-6

PVPotential Vorticiy

QBOQuasi-Biennal Oscillation

RCPRepresentative Concentration Pathway (IPCC)

RFRadiative Forcing (RF) see AR4 (IPCC, 2007a)

RHRelative humidity

RMSRoot-Mean-Square

RSSRemote Sensing Systems https://www.remss.com/research/climate/ RTRadiative Transfer

RWPRoman Warm Period (2200-1900 BP)

SBLStefan-Boltzmann Law

SDGSustainable Development Goals , see the (United Nations, 2017)

SEPSolar Energetic Particles (SEP)

SGMinSolar Grand Minimum

SGMaxSolar Grand Maximum

SHSouthern Hemisphere

SMOWStandard Mean Ocean Water

SOSouthern Oscillation - The name was given by Sir Gilbert Walker who also named the NAO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Walker_(physicist). The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño.

SOASchedule of Adjustments

SOISouthern Oscillation Index

SPICEStratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Change

SSESea Saw Effect

SSISolar Spectral Irradiance

SSTSea Surface Temperature

SSUStratospheric Sounding Unit

SWShortwave radiation

TAlkTotal Alkalinity, i.e. [HCO3 -] + 2 [CO3 2-] + [B(OH)4 ] + [OH ] + [HPO4 2−] + 2 [PO4 3-] + [H3SiO4 ] + 2[H2SiO4 2-] + [HS ] + 2[S ]+ [NH3 +]+ [Org ] − [H+] − [H3PO4] where Org− represents a collective term for organic acids (Hunt el al., 2011), simplified Talk = [HCO3 -] + 2 [CO3 2-] + [OH ] − [H+] + [B(OH)4 ]. Thus [HCO3 -] + 2 [CO3 2-] + bt[S] Kb / (Kb + [H+]) difference of the total charges of the major ions of the dissolved salts except carbonates and borates; Kb is the base dissociation constant, a measure of how completely a base dissociates into its component ions in water: Kb = [B+][OH ]/[BOH]; Salinity S=34.78 in calculations for pH; see e.g. Dickson et al. (2007), Millero (2007).

THCThermo-Haline Circulation

TIGRTOVS Initial Guess Retrieval

TIOTropical Intra-seasonal Oscillation

TL_TTTThin Layer (TL) at the high Troposphere up To the Tropopause (TTT) 300-100 mbar from which originate most of the emissions towards the cosmos

TOATop Of the Atmosphere

TOVSTIROS Operational Vertical Sounder

TSITotal Solar Irradiance

UAHUniversity of Alabama at Huntsville

UEAUniversity of East Anglia

UKMOUnited Kingdom Meteorological Office, UK

UTUpper Troposphere

UTHUpper Tropospheric Humidity

VEIVolcanic Explosivity Index

VGPVirtual Geomagnetic Pole

VSSIVolcanic Stratospheric Sulfur Injection

WCRPWorld Climate Research Program

WGCMWorking Group on Coupled Modelling

WEFWorld Economic Forum

WFCWorld Fuel Consumption

WMGGWell Mixed Greenhouse Gases

WMOWorld Meteorological Organization

WPNPWeather Prediction by Numerical Process, i.e. first formal description by Richardson (1922)

WSWWarm Salty Water

Index des illustrations

Figure 1. Central England Temperature (CET) 1659-2018, is the longest record of measured temperature available. It has of course only a regional scope, though it illustrates well the fast warming from 1700 to 1740, a stagnation until 1900, then a warming until 1950, a cooling until 1985 and finally the warming over 1950 to 2018, characterized by several strong El Niño years such as 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2016..............................................................................................13

Figure 2. The old lady of temperature datasets – HadCRUT, the only global dataset to reach back to 1850 – has released its revised monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies for 1850-2020. The earlier dataset that we use here (HadCRUT4) showed a least-squares linear-regression trend of 0.91°C on the monthly anomalies from 1850-2020 –only just over half a degree per century equivalent (Monckton of Brenchley, 2021)....................................................14

Figure 3. The Holocene (11,700 years) is displayed left, with the HadCRUT4 dataset right and corresponding variations reported at scale onto the Holocene graph.The total T anomaly reported is 1.1°C in between 1840 and 2020 (whereas the regression just gives 0.91°C), after Brown (2018a-b) modified. Data from (Alley, 2004; Vinther et al., 2009)........14

Figure 4. Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum some 23,000 years ago. The sea level is some -125 m lower, vegetation and habitat are dramatically changed and the extension of the Ice Cap is such that most of continental Europe is covered. Woolen mammouths were in Spain and 80% of the arable lands were lost as compared to present...........................15

Figure 5. Reconstructed global temperature over the past 420,000 years based on the Vostok ice core from the Antarctica (Petit et al., 1999, 2001). The record spans over four glacial periods and five interglacials, including the present. The horizontal line indicates the modern temperature. The red square to the right indicates the time interval shown in greater detail in Figure 174, p.523. After Ole Humlum, https://www.climate4you.com/.............................................16

Figure 6. Geological stratigraphic chart for the entire geological history of planet Earth. Modern time is indicated by the thin red line at the top of the left column. Please note that the time scale is highly compressed, and increasing so towards higher ages........................................ ......................17

Figure 7. Contrary to the oft-repeated deception that today’s CO2 concentration is unprecedentedly high, our current levels of carbon dioxide are at near-historic geological lows. The death line, i.e. when photosynthesis stops and all forms of lives stop to exist is drawn in red, around 150 ppm (Tripati et al., 2009). Time is given in million years with O (Ordovician), S (Silurian), D (Devonian), C (Cretaceous), P (Permian), T (Trias), J (Jurassic), K (Cretaceous), T (Tertiary or Cenozoic), similar reconstructions can be obtained from Berner and Kothavala (2001), Wrightstone (2017) https://co2coalition.org/facts/current-co2-levels-are-near-record-lows-we-are-co2-impoverished/. After Rothman (2002), modified................................... ...................18

Figure 8. “Nature” conducted an anonymous survey of the 233 living IPCC authors last month and received responses from 92 scientists — about 40% of the group about how much warming above pre-industrial times they expect by 2100 – the scattering of the answers is appalling, after Tollefson (2021)........................................................................................24

Figure 9. The “scientific method” is schematized left and should prevail over any consensus, whereas the “climate science method” as enforced by political bodies and the vested interests of the climate-research&industrial complex is at the right.This could look somehow caricatural, but alas is not............................................................................................29

Figure 10. Anthropogenic CO2 expressed as a % of the total atmospheric CO2 content for the period 1930-2020 computed using Equation 9 with 19 terms (i.e. a 19 years moving window over the exact man-made emissions) for (1-1/τ)=0.82. It culminates so far in 2018-2919 at 6%, with the very small Covid effect at the end.......................................................39

Figure 11. Estimating the relaxation time for a given emission (here the 52.15 Gt-C of anthropogenic origin left today in the atmosphere) with a function e-λt with λ=(1/τ)=0.198 and τ=1/λ =5.05yr over a 30 years time-scale............................40

Figure 12. Measured time series for atmospheric Δ14C in CO2 (a) (compare to the observed decrease past the emission peak to Figure11) and δ13C in CO2 (b). Annual mean values of Δ14C are provided for three zonal bands representing the Northern Hemisphere (30–90° N), the tropics (30°S–30°N) and the Southern Hemisphere (30–90° S). Annual mean, global mean values are provided for δ13C. Source Graven et al. (2017).......................................................................40

Figure 13. Reconstructed Suess effect δ13C, using the time series generated using Equation 9, that leads to Figure 10, and a mixing between the anthropogenic and the natural reservoir over the period 1930-2020. Note the perfect match with the measurements and previous Figure 12 b. The small blip in the end (bottom right) is the very small “Covid effect”. ..............................41

Figure 14. δ13C mismatch between the “Bern” model (blue line) and the measurements at MLO (in red). Source Veyres (2020e). ..............................45

Figure 15. Comparison of various deceitful IRFs (including Delmas et al., 2005) with that in orange that is given as per Equation (4) in exp(-t/5) which is valid both for natural degassing and for "fossil" emissions (of course). Source Veyres and Maurin ( 2020)...................................... ...................45

Figure 16. Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions over 1900-2018 (blue curve) and what's left of them (1970-2018) (red curve) as computed by developing the series of emissions-absorptions according to Equation 9.................................46

Figure 17. Here are shown curves for Carbon species in solution Cs in mg.atoms/L at different temperatures and chlorinities in sea-water. They represent the amount of H2CO3, in milligram atoms of carbon per liter of sea water, in solution

under the designated conditions when the partial pressure of CO2 is 1 physical atmosphere. At 20°C and 19 ‰ Cl, Cs is 34.2. That is, a partial pressure of one atmosphere of CO2 would be in equilibrium with a solution containing 34.2 milligram-atoms of carbon as free CO2 + H2CO3. Source Sverdrup et al. (1942), fig 41, p. 202....................................52

Figure 18. Approximation of the decrease of the solubility as a function of the temperature Cs=f(Θ) according to the equation 28 proposed........................................................................................................................................................................53

Figure 19. Temperature variations (ΔT) as the cause of the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the last 423 kyr of the Vostok record and their control by Milankovitch insolation cycles. All data from Petit et al. (1999), including the insolation variations in watts per square meter (W m−2) shown at the top and reported for a reference value in midJune at 65◦ N. After Richet (2021)............................ .............................................56

Figure 20. The CO2 content of the air is a consequence of past inter-tropical temperatures, in fact their time-integral: in grey the time derivative of the ppm, in yellow-green a linear function of the inter-tropical UAH-MSU temperature anomaly TA(t), (Soares, 2010; Veyres, 2018). This also shows the extraordinary variability of the annual increments in ppm, from less than 0.5 in 1993 or even close to zero in 1959 (off the graph), to more than 3ppm in 2016 (El Niño), thus with inter-annual variations of more than 500% over the period, whereas man-made emission are regular and steadily increasing. Therefore, just from this simple observation, man-made emissions cannot explain the annual increments measured. Data from Spencer et al. (2015), after Veyres (2018)................................................................59

Figure 21. Carbon dioxide concentrations over the ocean, i.e. surface p(CO2) (µatm) essentially shows the outgassing from the warm intertropical oceans. Source: Barry et al. (2010) and data from Takahashi et al. (2009)......................................60

Figure 22. Annual anthropogenic emissions in Gt-C per year (1959-2018) (red) compared to the yearly annual [CO2] increment in ppm (blue) as measured at the MLO station show no relationship. Inter-annual ppm increases may vary enormously, e.g. 1973 (2.97), 1974 (0.09), 1997 (1.0), 1998 (3.28), 1999 (1.16) whereas emissions are regular with a steady progression. Nature drives the annual increase. Data are public and from: https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-year/.....................................................................61

Figure 23. The ppm increments δCO2 (t) can be mainly reconstructed using the Temperature Anomaly (TA) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and proves that there exist only very little dependence on man-made emissions, after Veyres (2022)............................................. .........................62

Figure 24. Correlation between emissions (detrended) (X-axis) and MLO ppm increments (detrended) (Y-axis). Coefficient of determination R² = 0.01, after Veyres (2022 see note 87).............................................................................................63

Figure 25. Annual variations of the anthropogenic CO2 stock over the period 1930-2021 expressed in ppm. Note the blip at the end that corresponds to Covid time. ................ .......66

Figure 26. Annual variations of the total CO2 atmospheric stock over the period 1950-2021 expressed in ppm. Note the drop at the end that corresponds to Covid time.............. ....66

Figure 27. Annual variations of the anthropogenic CO2 sub-stock expressed as a percentage of the variations of the total CO2 atmospheric stock.................................. ..................67

Figure 28. Comparative dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption (WFC) and Global Temperature Anomaly (dT) 1861–2000 (checked against O18 ice-core content in Greenland). Thin line shows the annual dT; Bold line is a 13-years moving average; The thick gray line made of squares is the WFC (million tons of nominal fuel). From Klyashtorin and Lyubushin (2003)...........................................................................................................................................................68

Figure 29. Comparative dynamics of the temperature anomaly in red (as per NASA's GISS data) and CO2 from Law dome icecore proxies (Antarctica) and since 1958 from MLO direct IR measurements by spectroscopy. Same comment as for Figure 28.......................................... ........................69

Figure 30. Diagram P/T [0.1-3] bar. Using Equation 79 gives a very convenient way to display how the temperature (T) depends on the pressure (P), starting with a reference of 288°K, i.e. 14.85°C for 1 bar, with 0.1 bar increments. At a pressure of 0.5 bar (i.e. altitude of ~ 5600m) the temperature has gone down to -11.86°C, whereas at a pressure of 1.2 bar the temperature has already gone up 10°C at 25°C. Given the imbalance of 3.7 Wm-2 for a CO2 doubling (Myhre et al., 1998) it gives an ECS of 1.1°C (Equations 103 and 104), thus it would require nine (9) doubling of the [CO2] concentrations, an increase of 512 times (i.e. at 0,04% times 29 => 0.04*512=21%) to produce an equivalent warming to an increase of Patm of just 20%. This should have considerable impact on our understanding of paleo-climate variations as Patm has of course varied over geological times (mainly decreased) and explains T changes observed (e.g. PETM) that [CO2] variations cannot. A more accurate formula for Patm>1 (or negative height or e.g. depth in a shaft) is given by (Berberan-Santos et al., 2009) p. 999 eq. 16 but only marginally changes the results shown above.77

Figure 31. The enormous dispersion of the ECS and TCR values on this graph show (for a doubling of [CO2]), on the one hand, the lack of consensus on these two essential notions and, therefore, the major uncertainty regarding the amplitude of possible warming and, on the other hand, the inexorable tendency for these values to decrease, which leads to a projection of minimal anthropogenic warming, after Scafetta et al. (2017) with data from Knutti et al. (2017) and also after Gervais (2016a, 2018, 2022) in French. Latest values, e.g. (Coe et al., 2021) are well below 1°C..........................88

Figure 32. Planck radiation spectra for different temperatures in K (equal to T in °C +273 (thus, 288K=15°C; 0K= -273°C), in loglog representation. Abscissa= Wavelength in µm (left scale= Spectral Specific Radiation right scale=Spectral Radiation)......................................... .......................90

Figure 33. Optical thickness τ at infrared frequencies of water vapor (in blue), and CO2 in black (and methane in green) for an average value of 30 kg/m² of water vapor and 6 kg/m² of carbon dioxide and after doubling of ppm (in red), thermal infrared frequencies in THz. The orange and black curves are the radiation of a black body surface (π times the Planck function) as a function of the frequency, spectral density given in W/m²/THz (SI units), after Moranne (2020)...........91

Figure 34. Shows the net absorption and release of latent heat energy for the Earth's surface for January and July, respectively. The highest values of flux or flow occur near the subtropical oceans where high temperatures and a plentiful supply of water encourage the evaporation of water. Negative values of latent heat flux indicate a net release of latent energy back into the environment because of the condensation or freezing of water. From Climate Lab Section, University of Oregon......................................................................................................................................................93

Figure 35. The position (altitude expressed in pressure) of the bottom of the layer that makes 80% of the radiation from the air to the cosmos (TOA) at the different frequencies of the thermal infrared. The "Higher-Colder" for a doubling of the ppm of CO2 around 18 THz and 22 THz is the difference between the black and red curves!, visible between 0.4 atm and 0.2 atm; in blue the water vapor – layer at τ =1.07 for both CO2 and H2O (30 Kg/m2). For the record, 0.2 atm corresponds to an altitude of 12 km: it is also the altitude of the tropopause in temperate zones, at an average temperature of -60°C or 213K, after Moranne (2020).. ..............................................94

Figure 36. Pressure (in atm) of the level above which 80% of the photons radiated by the air and reaching the cosmos are produced. Location of the τ =1.07 layer from the top of the air for CO2, 2*CO2, and water w=25kg/m2 & w=50kg/m2. Solutions of τH2Omax P 4.5 = 1.07 and of τCO2max P 1.45 = 1.07 and 2* τCO2max P 1.45 = 1.07. In orange the Planck function for a black body at 255K (Veyres, 2020).... 95

Figure 37. Cooling of cloudless air by radiation for a tropical troposphere: O3 around 960 cm-1, CO2 around 666 cm-1 and water vapor across the spectrum. The considered spectral range is from 0 to 2500 cm-1. From (Brindley and Harries, 1998). The low areas in pale blue do not cool because the medium is opaque, the high areas in light blue do not cool because there is hardly any trace gas left (no water vapor capable of radiating)..........................................................97

Figure 38. A radiative transfer model simulation of the TOA zenith monochromatic radiance for a mid-latitude summer atmosphere. Smooth grey solid lines indicate Planck curves for different temperatures. The calculated quantity has to be integrated over frequency and direction to obtain total OLR (Buehler et al, 2006). The blue line is know as the Schwarzschild curve and absorption bands of H2O, CO2 and O3 ar erepresented. Similar OLR spectrum can be measured by Michelson spectrometers at the nadir of satellites. Also see the more detailed Figure 162, p 446. After Moranne (2020)..................................... ..................99

Figure 39. Atmospheric specific humidity at 300 mb (ca. 9 km altitude), 600 mb (ca. 4.2 km altitude), 1000 mb (near surface) over the period 1948-2016. Data from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, chart from https://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndClouds.htm..... .......................................99

Figure 40. Global relative humidity, middle and upper atmosphere, from radiosonde data, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. These radiosonde measurements of relative humidity in the upper troposphere (1948-2012) show that increased temperature and CO2 did not increase humidity there - the opposite of the assumptions of both General Climate Models and the IPCC. Source: Gregory (2013). ............................................100

Figure 41. Specific humidity at 400 mb pressure level. Source: Gregory (2013)...........................................................................101

Figure 42. Average total radiation of the globe in thermal infrared (in W/m²) represented as a function of the carbon dioxide content of the air in ppm (Mauna Loa series). Note the seasonal cycles due to vegetation. Forty years of observations (1974-2014) show a slight growth (trend in red) and certainly not the trapping (or decrease in OLR) of 1 W/m² claimed to come from the greenhouse effect according to the decrease known as by the IPCC Myhre (1998) formula (black line)...................................................................................................................................................................102

Figure 43. Albedo of the northern (left) and southern (right) hemispheres from January 1984 to December 1997. Data from Hatzianastassiou et al. (2005) plotted by Veyres (2019) suggest that the maximum albedo in the northern hemisphere comes from the cloud cover and incidentally from the snow cover in winter of the mid and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere; the maximum of cloudiness in the southern hemisphere is in southern summer (displacement towards the south of the vertical meteorological equator) and in southern winter (clouding and extension of the Antarctic pack ice). They also clearly show a decrease of the Northern Hemisphere Albedo (left) over the 1984-1998 period............................................. .......................103

Figure 44. Evolution of the OLR in W/m2 over the timespan 1948-2021, automatically generated by the NOAA site as per the results of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 40-year Project (Kalnay et al., 1996).................................................................104

Figure 45. Monthly global mean surface air temperature anomalies, December 1996 to July 2013 (Remote Sensing Systems, Inc.), showing no trend over 16 years and 8 months (200 months), notwithstanding a rising trend in carbon dioxide concentrations (grey line and curve) from 362 to 398 ppm at a rate equivalent to 200 µatm century-1 (NOAA, 2013), implying a radiative forcing of 0.47 W m-2 from carbon dioxide alone. From Legates et al. (2015). Another example is over the period 1950-1970 temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4.4) fell while [CO2] steadily increased, this is referred to as the “Big hiatus” (Fyfe et al., 2016).......................................................................................................................118

Figure 46. Spectral dependence of the absorbency for three values of the water vapor content of the atmosphere, here expressed in kg/m2. The carbon dioxide curve is reproduced for comparison. The wavelength is in microns in abscissa X and the absorption in Y. Since the concentration of water vapor varies greatly with altitude, we consider the integral of the mass of water vapor on a vertical. The variation with latitude is also large: from 4 kg/m2 at high latitudes to 45 kg/m2 near the equator. The concentration of CO2 is on the contrary very little variable for altitudes below 50 km, and therefore the integral of its mass along the vertical is directly proportional to its average concentration, quantity used here. Adapted from Dufresne and Treiner (2011).........................................................124

Figure 47. A sketchy global annual mean Earth’s energy budget expressed in PetaWatts (1015 Watts). SW radiations are represented in yellow (λ < 4 µm), LW radiations are in Red (λ > 4 µm) and energy transported by thermodynamical processes is in Blue (Sh= Sensible Heat, LH=Latent Heat). IR emissions toward space taking place at TL_TTT are figured

in vaporous red. As explained p. 93 the very thin red vaporous layer atop the ground shows that just 17 meters of air in tropical zone or 240 meters in temperate zone during winter (lower content of H20 vapor) are the thickness of the slice of atmosphere that will stop 80% of the radiative emissions originating from the ground. After an exchange with J.-C. Maurin (2021)................................. ...............126

Figure 48. Carbon Budget at a glance over the period 1900-2018 displayed on the graph over 1959-2018. Dark Blue = Cumulated man-made emissions Gt-C (same as Figure 16), Light Blue= Cumulated Degassing by the Oceans yr-1 of Total Gt-C in Atmosphere, Light Green = Cumulated Gt-C Budget (overall ppm atmospheric increase), Red = Anthropic Gt-C CO2 remaining (same as Figure 16), Green = Cumulated uptake by Land, Forest, and Biological Pump yr-1 of total Gt-C in Atmosphere. Based on a non linear model where all processes are dependent on the Temperature........................128

Figure 49. Representative plants of Abutilon theophrasti (C3) grown at glacial through future [CO2]. All plants were 14 days of age and were grown under similar water, light, and nutrient conditions. These plants were photographed during a study by Dippery et al. (1995). (Photograph is courtesy of Anne Hartley, Florida Gulf Coast University.). Modified after Gerhart and Ward (2010)............................ ...........134

Figure 50. The GIMMS LAI3g data set, which includes recent data up to 2015, shows the change of Leaf Area Index (LAI). After Myneni (2015) the third author of Zhu et al. (2016), work referenced by NASA (April 26, 2016)................................135

Figure 51. Global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past 570 million years. Purple line is CO2 concentration (ppm); blue line is change in temperature (∆°C). Horizontal scale is not in constant units. CO2 scale derived from ratios to levels at around 1911 (300 ppm) calculated by Berner and Kothavala (2001). Source Idso et al. (2019) adapted from Nahle (2007), referencing Ruddiman (2001), Scotese (2003), Pagani et al. (2005)....................136

Figure 52. The Earth during the late Paleozoic ice age, i.e. “Karoo ice age” 360 to 260 Ma, the second major glacial period of the Phanerozoic. It is named after the tillite (Dwyka Group) found in the Karoo Basin of South Africa. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Paleozoic_icehouse modified after Dimichele et al. (2005)................................138

Figure 53. All glaciations (blue spots) put in scale, from the latest at the right to the oldest left, the Quaternary (i.e. the current ice-age) then the Late Paleozoic (-360 to -260 Myr) formerly known as the Karoo ice age, the Andean-Saharan (-460 to -420 Myr), the Cryogenian (-720 Myr to -630 Myr) and the Huronian (-2,470 to -2,210)........................................138

Figure 54. Reconstruction of extra-tropical temperatures of the northern hemisphere in °C, deviating from the average for the period 1880-1960. The thin curves are the annual values, and the smoothed curve (in red) an average over 50 years, with dashed quantiles at 2.5% probability. The green curve shows the observed extra-tropical (>30° N) annual mean temperature. The yellow curve show the temperature average over grid-cells with accepted proxies. Both curves have been centered to zero in 1880–1960 AD. Source: Christiansen and Ljungqvist (2012). Other similar reconstructions by Moberg et al. (2005)............ ....143

Figure 55. The Little Ice Age (LIA), "cold" period from 1300 to 1860, ended, according to the glacier moraines, around 1860; observations on the great Aletsch glacier (Switzerland) also strongly suggest cycles of around 1000 years; before our era, around the Iron/Roman Age Optimum (I/RAO) (aka the Roman Warm Period) between 250 BC and 400 AD the glacier was somehow shorter than today, and around 1350 BC – 1200 BC i.e. Late Bronze Age Optimum (BAO) the glacier was 1000m shorter than today as per Schafer (2018), graph after Holzhauser et al. (2005)............................144

Figure 56. Departure of summer temperature (°C) from modern values for the Holocene climatic optimum optimum (5000 to 6000 years BP) as per Borzenkova and Zubakov (1984), (Budyko and Izrael, 1987) after Folland et al. (1990)...........147

Figure 57. Departure of annual precipitations from modern values for the Holocene climatic optimum optimum (5000 to 6000 years BP) as per Borzenkova and Zubakov (1984), (Budyko and Izrael, 1987) after Folland et al. (1990)....................149

Figure 58. Based on multiple climate proxy time series, the transition from a) Holocene Climatic Optimum to b) Neoglaciation. The climate patterns changed at the Mid-Holocene Transition (see Figure 59) due to orbitally-driven changes in insolation and a shift from solar to atmospheric-oceanic frequencies leading to the shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and led to the end of the Green-Sahara period, after Wanner and Brönnimann (2012) Source: Javier Vinós................................ ...............150

Figure 59. Holocene climate reconstruction from Vinós (2017c) “Major palinological subdivisions of the Holocene (names on top) match a 2450-yr regular spacing (grey arches on top). (a) The global temperature reconstruction has been rescaled resulting in the Holocene Climate Optimum being about 1.2°K warmer than LIA (b) The general temperature trend of the Holocene follows the Earth’s axis obliquity (purple), and significant downside deviations generally match the lows of the ≈2400-year Bray cycle of solar activity (grey bands labeled B-1 to B-5). (c) Significant negative climate deviations manifest also in global glacier advances - blue bars, Mayewski et al. (2004) and (d) strong increases in iceberg detrital discharges (red curve, inverted) Bond et al. (1992; 2001) that generally agree well with the lows in the ≈2400-year Bray cycle and ≈1000-year Eddy cycle (not shown) of solar activity”, Source: Vinós (2017c)...................151

Figure 60. Interglacial start and end dates (triangles) relative to the obliquity maximum. Light grey area indicates interglacial start for all interglacials except MIS 7e and MIS 11c that had an anomalous length due to starting too late and too early respectively in the obliquity cycle. Dark grey area indicates interglacial end for all interglacials. Circles indicate start and end of a typical interglacial with average 13.8 kyr length. Interglacials start when obliquity is high and end when obliquity is low. Source: Vinós (2018d)....... .154

Figure 61. The “Orbital decision” to end an interglacial is calculated as a function of the summer energy at 70°N with a 250 W/m2 threshold for the past 800 kyr. Diamonds mark the position 6 kyr before glacial inception as observed in the EPICA Dome C temperature proxy record for each interglacial except MIS 13. Dashed line marks the lowest value observed (4.96 GJ/m2). Six interglacials were very close to this value 6 kyr prior to glacial inception. The Holocene (MIS 1) is already below that value. Source: Vinós (2018d).........................................................................................156

Figure 62. Succession of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events (numbers atop) in the Greenland glacial archives and the Heinrich events (Hx below) in the marine sediments of the North Atlantic. The Bølling–Allerød event (D-O 1) is well visible and followed by the Younger Dryas - more details provided in Stuiver et al. (1995), Fig. 11, p. 348. The 8200 years event is recorded in Greenland ice-cores and zoomed (left). The D-O 19 ca. mentioned before at 70-71,000 BP is further right, out of scale of x-axis (age); y-axis is δ18O a proxy for the temperature, from Debret (2008)......................................158

Figure 63. Displayed are ice records from Antarctic and Arctic: (1) the EPICA project has provided two records in East Antarctica, one at Dome C (EDC, EPICA community members, 2004), and one in the Dronning Maud Land area (EDML, EPICA community members), (2) Byrd Station, West Antarctica (80°01'S, 119°31'W; 1530m elevation), (3) the NGRIP Northern Greenland Ice-core Project site. The synchronization between the two hemispheres reveals a coupling between the amplitude of hot Antarctic events and the duration of the equivalent stadial in Greenland. Note: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR), Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) warm events, Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3), Antarctic warming A1, A2, from EPICA (2006), Parrenin et al. (2007) and Debret (2008)......160

Figure 64. Age model of Ocean Drilling Programme (ODP) Site 1233. Alkenone-based SST reconstruction at Site 1233 compared to the Byrd δ18O record over the last 70 kyr. The open arrows represent the correlation points to the core GeoB3313-1, the black arrows represent the 14C-AMS datings and gray arrows show the tuning points to the oxygen isotope record of the Byrd ice core. A1 to A5 are Antarctic warm events after Blunier and Brook (2001), MIS is marine isotope stages 1 to 4, from Kaiser et al. (2005)... ...161

Figure 65. Departures of (a) summer air temperature (°C) from modern values for the Eemian interglacial from Folland et al. (1990) and after Velichko et al. (1982, 1983, 1984). .................................................164

Figure 66. δ18O isotopic record from LR04 stack of 53 benthic cores from all over the world shows that from about 1.8 million years ago some interglacials continued reaching the previous average temperature, while others show a decreasing trend in interglacial average temperature, and are not considered interglacials. Periods of higher temperature more recent than MIS 23 that did not reach interglacial levels are usually not assigned an MIS number (asterisks). Source: Lisiecky and Raymo (2005).......................... ...........166

Figure 67. Temperature Anomaly in Antarctica over 800 kyr is displayed in Red, CO2 in Blue, CH4 in Green. No need for magnifying glasses to see that CO2 lags the temperature (e.g. at 650kyr, 430kyr, 240kyr, 130kyr)!...........................167

Figure 68. Two different paleoclimatic proxies from ODP Site 846 for temperature, the alkenone UK’37 in marine sediments (red), and δ18O isotope in benthic cores (blue), show the progressive cooling of the Earth through the Pliocene. At the early- Pleistocene, glaciations start to take place at 41 kyr intervals. As the cooling progresses, this interval lengthens to 100kyr in what is called the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. All data are correlated to the LR04 Stack, the early Pliocene is shaded yellow, a white background defines the interval of maximum Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) plankton productivity, and the portion of the Pleistocene after the productivity maximum is shaded gray, after Lawrence et al. (2006)............................. ..............167

Figure 69. The average interglacial (grey curve and 1σ grey bands) and the average obliquity (grey sinusoid continuous line) and insolation at 65°N on 21 June (grey dotted line) are compared to Holocene temperature (smoothed, black curve), obliquity (black sinusoid continuous line), and insolation (black dotted line), Source: Vinós (2018b).........................170

Figure 70. Departures of (a) summer air temperature (°C) and (b) Departures of annual precipitation (mm) from modern values for the Pliocene climatic optimum (4.3 to 3.1 million years BP) from Budyko and Izrael (1987) after Folland et al. (1990)..........................................................................................................................................................................171

Figure 71. 40 Myrs ago, the Alps, the Himalayan mountain belts did not exist, the Tethys ocean was to disappear (except a remnant in the Eastern Mediterranean), India will collide with Eurasia, the northern motion of the African plate will entirely reshape the Mediterranean area, but some authors are obsessed by CO2 levels of the time!, map after “The Burgess Shale”, see also Scotese (2001, 2003), Boucot et al. (2013), Scotese and Wright (2018)...............................173

Figure 72. Evolution of the Climate over 65 Myears from Zachos et al. (2008). Global deep ocean δ18O. The climate curve is a stacked deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen-isotope curve based on records from Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program (Zachos et al., 2001). As stated by Zachos et al. (2008) “The raw data were smoothed by using a five-point running mean. The δ18O temperature scale, on the right axis, was computed on the assumption of an ice-free ocean; it therefore applies only to the time preceding the onset of large-scale glaciation on Antarctica (about 35 million years ago). The figure clearly shows the 2-million-year-long Early Eocene Climatic Optimum and the more transient Mid-Eocene Climatic Optimum, and the very short-lived early Eocene hyperthermals such as the PETM (also known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 1, ETM1) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2; also known as ELMO). ‰, parts per thousand”.....................................................................................................................................................174

Figure 73. 65 millions of Climate Change with Antarctic glaciations and thawing: Source Wikipedia..........................................176

Figure 74. There is a clear relationship that applies between the wing loading (in kPa or N / m2) and the weight that applies to all flying bodies from insects, birds and up to the B747. Prehistoric flyers like Quetsalcoatlus or Pteranodon do not fit into today's insects, birds and aircraft flight characteristics and require a higher atmospheric pressure to be given a chance to fly, but they flew ! After Levenspiel (2006)..................................................................................................183

Figure 75. Animation of 99942 Apophis's orbit – Close approach on April 13, 2029. Source: Wikipedia. Apophis is displayed on the left on April 23rd, 10 days after closest encounter, and visible on the right on April, 13th slightly past closest encounter at 39,828 km! (in fact will come no closer than 31,200 km), i.e. 1/10th of the distance between the Earth and the Moon, and will nearly also collide with the Moon, visible on the right, a few hours later on April 14th, 2029 around 17:00 UT.................................... ................185

Figure 76. 100 Myrs ago, the Alps and all the mountain belts eastward to the Himalayan did not exist, the huge Tethys ocean was to disappear, Middle East and Arabian plate did not exist, the Indian plate had just started it motion N, Africa and S. America were separating, and much more!, but if there is a problem with what you observe as a geologist, invoke CO2 !. See also Scotese (2001, 2003), Boucot et al. (2013), Scotese and Wright (2018)..............................................186

Figure 77. The parameter RCO2 is defined as the ratio of the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere at some time in the past to that at present (with a pre-industrial value of 300 parts per million) Berner (1997), see also Berner and Kothavala (2001) Fig. 6, p. 195, Berner (2006) Fig. 18, p. 5662......................................................................................................................187

Figure 78. The cryogenian is considered as probably the most severe episode of global glaciation, with two successive episodes: the Sturtian and Marinoan glaciations, thought to be global in extent, shown up clearly in this graph of carbon-13 (thought to be an indicator of biological productivity). The glaciations are at 710 and 650 Myr. A later glaciation at 580 Myr is also indicated, i.e. (Varanger or Gaskiers), although its nature remains elusive. The mantle value for δ13C is believed to be -5 to -6 ppm. When this actually was the sediment value, photosynthesis had nearly ceased. After Banik (2016)....................................... ....................188

Figure 79. δ18O of Phanerozoic low-Mg calcitic fossils (58,532 low-Mg calcite marine shells that cover almost the entire Phanerozoic eon). The temperature estimates are based on the Visser et al. (2003) transfer function, assuming the present day δ18O value of 0‰ Standard Mean Ocean Water (SMOW) for seawater. Time scale after Gradstein et al. (2012). After Veizer and Prokoph (2015)............. ..191

Figure 80. δ18O*(-1) over the entire Phanerozoic. Conversion to Temperature can be done using the scale displayed Figure 79. Moving averages, blue (3-6 Myr), green (5-10 Myr), black (10-20 Myr), and red (10-50 Myr) give the overall downard trend from high early Paleozoic to low Quaternary. The trend is due to a diminishing ground (sea-level) atmospheric pressure over geological eons, punctuated by excursions due to orbital parameter changes. Atmospheric composition and trace gases concentrations (except water vapor) play a minor role. Modified after Davies (2017)......................192

Figure 81. The Solar activity as monitored by 400 years of direct observations counting Sunspot numbers, with the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and Modern Maximum well visible. After Wikipedia, modified.......................................................193

Figure 82. The great winter 1683-1684 Thames frost fare took place while the seas of southern Britain were frozen solid for up to two miles from shore. After https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/The-Thames-Frost-Fairs/ ............................194

Figure 83. Solar irradiance since 1610 as reconstructed by Lean et al. (1995) and Lean (2000). The thin line indicates the annual reconstructed solar irradiance, while the thick line shows the running 11 average. The values shown include a background component. See Lean (2000) for discussion of the amplitude of the background component. Last year included in the Lean (2000) analysis: 2000. After Ole Humlum, https://www.climate4you.com/...............................195

Figure 84. A periodogram shows how periodicities (either of orbital or solar origin) dominate climate change at all temporal scales. The 150 Myr Ice Age cycle has produced four Ice Ages in the last 450 million years. It is proposed to be caused by the crossing of the galactic arms by the Solar system (Veizer, 2005). The 32 Myr cycle has produced two cycles during the Cenozoic era, the first ending in the glaciation of Antarctica and the second in the current Quaternary Ice Age. It is proposed to be caused by the vertical displacement of the Solar system with respect to the galactic plane. The orbital cycles are well visible (eccentricity, obliquity, precession). The millennial climate cycles (grey band) regroup most of the known solar cycles aforementioned. Short term climate variability is dominated by the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation. Adapted by Vinós (2017c) from Maslin et al. (2001)..................................................................199

Figure 85. Time series of the sunspot number as reconstructed from 10Be concentrations in ice cores from Antarctica (red) and Greenland (green). The thick black curve shows the observed group sunspot number since 1610 and the thin blue curve gives the (scaled) 14C concentration in tree rings, corrected for the variation of the geomagnetic field. The horizontal bars with attached arrows indicate the times of Great Minima and Maxima: Dalton minimum (Dm), Maunder minimum (Mm), Spörer minimum (Sm), Wolf minimum (Wm), Oort minimum (Om), and Medieval Maximum (MM). From Usoskin et al. (2018)........... .................................................200

Figure 86. Evolution of the eccentricity and angular position of the perihelion for Jupiter's orbit for the last 650,000 years; this is a polar plot with the radial coordinate equal to the eccentricity (abscissa) and the angular coordinate equal to the longitude of the perihelion (ordinate), after Brouwer and Clemence (1961b)............................................................205

Figure 87. Earth's orbital eccentricity and direction of perihelion for one million years beginning in 1900; this is a polar plot with the radial coordinate equal to the eccentricity (abscissa) and the angular coordinate equal to the longitude of the perihelion (ordinate), after Brouwer and Clemence (1961b).......................................................................................206

Figure 88. Effect of the ~2500-year Bray(Hallstatt) solar cycle on the climate organization, with the shift of the ITCZ. As long as the ITCZ remains shifted South the Earth remains in a neoglacial regime. Source: Javier Vinós public data...............210

Figure 89. The flow of mass, momentum, and energy from the Sun’s interior through the interplanetary space into the Terrestrial Environment (TE) after (Baker, 2000). Some of the effects of this flow within the coupled system reveal the effect of solar variability on the atmosphere (i.e. Down from the Ionosphere to the Surface), Both normal solar wind flows and transient events are indicated. Source: Vinós (2018a)................................................................................212

Figure 90. Dynamical overview of the QBO during northern winter. The propagation of various tropical waves is depicted by orange arrows (in the middle), with the QBO driven by upward propagating gravity, inertia-gravity, Kelvin, and Rossby-gravity waves. The propagation of planetary-scale waves (red arrows) is shown at middle to high latitudes. Black contours indicate the difference in zonal-mean zonal winds between easterly and westerly phases of the QBO, where the QBO phase is defined by the 40- hPa equatorial wind. Easterly anomalies are light blue, and westerly anomalies are pink. The Mesospheric QBO (MQBO) is shown above ~80 km. Source: Baldwin et al. (2001)..............213

Figure 91. Summary of proposed top-down solar variability effects on climate. Only the Northern Hemisphere is represented, with the left and right halves showing the differences between summer and winter. The ITCZ, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, is the climatic equator, ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation. Source: Vinós (2018a).....................215

Figure 92. The typical January–March weather anomalies and atmospheric circulation during moderate to strong (top) El Niño and (bottom) La Niña natural variability patterns. These influences over the United States often occur most strongly during the cold season. From (USGCRP, 2017)............................................................................................................219

Figure 93. Temperature, pressure, wind, sea ice, ocean current and precipitation changes related to a positive and negative NAO phase (KLIMET, Grüppe fur Klimatologie/Meteorologie, Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland). Source: Rombaut (2010)..................................... ................222

Figure 94. North–south vertical cross section of ocean temperature with depth in the Atlantic Ocean, showing its huge heat storage capacity given the very high specific heat capacity of water and that most of the ocean (95%) is below 5°C. Source: Spencer (2016)............................. .............223

Figure 95. Earth rotation and sea surface temperature anticorrelation. Continuous line, detrended yearly values of ∆LOD with a 5-year running mean smoothing, shifted ahead 4 years. Dotted line, detrended yearly values of Northern Hemisphere SST, from HadSST3 with a 5-year running mean smoothing. Source: Mazzarella (2013).............................................225

Figure 96. Schematic of the ocean circulation associated with the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), with special focus on the Atlantic section of the flow (AMOC), in the Atlantic, warm and saline waters flow northward all the way from the Southern Ocean into the Labrador and Nordic Seas. By contrast, there is no deep-water formation in the North Pacific, and its surface waters are fresher. Deep waters formed in the Southern Ocean become denser and thus spread in deeper levels than those from the North Atlantic. Note the small, localized deep-water formation areas in comparison with the widespread zones of mixing-driven upwelling. Wind-driven upwelling occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). After Kuhlbrodt et al. (2007)............................................................................................226

Figure 97. Large surfaces of equal density represented by rising yellow–red arrows widely circulate over the main ocean basins and the upwelling around Antarctica is mainly due to the action of wind and eddy processes. In the northern Atlantic basin, warm water initially traveling broadly towards the East is cooled in the subpolar gyre and eventually becomes dense enough to sink under the thermocline in the polar seas and Labrador Sea convection regions, with blue arrows representing the down-welling of dense water flowing southwards in the deep branch of the South Atlantic current (green arrow), before joining the ACC system. After Marshall and Speer (2012)........................................................227

Figure 98. Average monthly levels in Brest since 1807: the big maximums are in Dec. 1821 (7225 mm), Nov. 1852 (7233 mm), Dec. 1876 (7322 mm), Feb. 1966 (7422 mm) and Dec. 2000 (7426 mm). The 18.6-year lunar cycle is visible on the annual averages while the monthly values mainly show the effect of winter storms. In yellow moving average over 5 years. http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.data/1.rlrdata ..................................................................231

Figure 99. a) Time series of yearly global sea level calculated from 1023 tide gauge records corrected for local datum changes and glacial isostatic adjustment. Time variable trend detected by Monte-Carlo-Singular Spectrum Analysis with 30year windows. Grey shading represents the standard errors. b) The evolution of the rate of the trend (black line) showing multidecadal variability and especially the 60 years cycle (Gervais, 2016). Blue line corresponds to the linear background sea level acceleration that corresponds to a sea level acceleration of 0.01 mm/yr2. Red line, IPCC calculated total anthropogenic radiative forcing. As one can see the blue trend started long before emissions were significant and despite the acceleration of the red-curve, the blue trend remains stable. Source: Jevrejeva et al. (2008)............................................. .......................232

Figure 100. Time series of sea level anomalies (blue) Jevrejeva et al. (2014). Million tons of carbon emitted from burning fossil fuels (red) from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC 2014). Source: (Curry, 2018; 2019a). As one can see there is simply no relationship, SLR (blue) started long before significant anthropogenic emissions and did not accelerate with the massive increase of emissions since the late 1950s. Another culprit will have to be found...233

Figure 101. Left: The V atop an horizontal bar Ɣ visible inside the ellipse (near center-left) which stands a bit less than one meter above the water is a mark 50 cm across (tidal range is less than a meter) that was etched by Capt. Sir James Clark Ross in 1841 to indicate the mean sea level and is still perfectly visible in this picture made by Daly in 2004 at the Isle of the Dead (Tasmania) showing that no significant SLR has occurred since 1841, < 0.8±0.2 mm/yr as per Hunter et al. (2003), Fig. 1 and 2, p.54-2 and 54-3, for the complete story refuting the SLR altogether, see Daly (2003a-b-c). Right: the Mörner Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil shows that no SLR occurred either in the Maldives, from Monckton of Brenchley (2020c)...................... .......235

Figure 102. Zoom on the etched benchmark displayed in the ellipse (near center-left) of Figure 101, that was engraved under the order of Capt. Sir James Clark Ross in 1841 to indicate the mean sea level at the Isle of the Dead (Tasmania). After Hunter et al. (2003)......................................................................................................................................................236

Figure 103. Sea-level change over the last 14.000 years (Holocene) in the “Golfe du Lion” as per Aloïsi et al. (1978) showing a constant SLR of +1mm/year over 8000 years, stopping at -4,500 years ago. This reconstruction matches that of Lambeck and Bard (2000), Fig. 3. Since the top observed at -4,000 the sea level has been pretty stable as reported by Morhange et al. (2001). After Aloïsi et al. (1978). See also O'Brien et al. (1995), Fig. 2 (center-down), p. 1963..........237

Figure 104. Sea-Level Rise (SLR) since the end of the last glacial maximum occurred in a sequence of various pulses, Robert Rohde (2005) produced the above illustration from various sources mainly showing MWP1a, mostly based on a data collection compiled by Fleming (1998, 2000) with a few additions from Milne et al. (2005).......................................238

Figure 105. The Kilimanjaro on March 30, 2018 does not want to cooperate with the anthropic global warming narrative and due to some atmospheric circulation change (westerlies) benefit of the greatest snowfall in years. This anecdotal glacier

will keep receding as it has done since its discovery in 1848 and will probably disappear but for other reasons than evil man-made emissions. Source: (Hardy, 2018)..... ................................................243

Figure 106. CO2 hydrate phase diagram from Genov (2005), Fig.I.8 p. I-8. The black squares show experimental data (Sloan, 1998). The lines of the CO2 phase boundaries are calculated according to the International thermodynamical tables (1976). The H2O phase boundaries are only “guides to the eye”. The abbreviations are as follows: L - liquid, V - vapor, S - solid, I - water ice, H – hydrate................................................................................................................................246

Figure 107. Clathrate hydrates are inclusion compounds in which a hydrogen-bonded water framework—the host lattice—traps “guest” molecules (typically gases) within ice cages. The gas and water don’t chemically bond, but interact through weak van der Waals forces, with each gas molecule—or cluster of molecules in some cases—confined to a single cage. Clathrates typically crystallize into one of the three main structures illustrated here. As an example, structure I is composed of two types of cages: dodecahedra, 20 water molecules arranged to form 12 pentagonal faces (designated 512), and tetrakaidecahedra, 24 water molecules that form 12 pentagonal faces and two hexagonal ones (51262). Two 512 cages and six 51262 cages combine to form the unit cell. The pictured structure I illustrates the water framework and trapped gas molecules (from Mao et al., 2007), see also (Brook et al., 2008) and (Everett, 2013).............................................. ........................249

Figure 108. CO2 concentrations in the bubbles and total carbonate content of: a, the Camp Century core; b, the Byrd core. The CO2 concentrations are presented with the lowest, highest and median values for each depth. The dashed lines indicate depths were drill fluid was observed in the large sample. Maximum CO2 values of 500 ppm at 500m (~300 years) for the Byrd Core. Modified after: Fig.1 in (Neftel, 1982) with anomalies as pink ellipses ~7,000-year BP added. ............................252

Figure 109. Antarctica monthly sea ice extent anomaly as per https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index shows a +0.8 ± 1.1% increase per decade over the period (1979-2020). Methodology described at https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/G02135V3.0_0.pdf...................................................................................................................................................................255

Figure 110. The monthly Sea Ice Index provides a quick look at Antarctic-wide changes in sea ice. It is a source for consistently processed ice extent and concentration images and data values since 1979. Monthly images show sea ice extent with an outline of the 30-year (1981-2010) median extent for that month (magenta line), as per https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index Source: National Snow & Ice Data Center - University of Colorado, Boulder....256

Figure 111. CO2 curve (red) from Antarctic Ice Cores Revised 800 kyr CO2 Data (to 2001). Source: NOAA, contributed by Bereiter et al., (2015); and from NOAA annual mean CO2 data (2002–2017). Due to the logarithmic effect of CO2 on temperatures, the comparison is more appropriately done with the Ln(CO2). Temperature curve (blue) for the past 200 years from 5 high resolution Antarctic ice cores. Source: Schneider et al. (2006). No temperature change is observed in response to the massive increase in CO2, over the period 1800-2000 (despite the conclusion from Schneider et al. (2006), who by cherry-picking the data, says slightly otherwise). Source: Vinós (2018b)..................256

Figure 112. Temperature(s) T and CO2 concentration: The graph displays the global proxy temperature stack (blue) TG as deviations from the early Holocene (11.5–6.5 kyr ago) mean, an Antarctic ice-core composite temperature record (red) TA, and atmospheric CO2 concentration (EPICA Dome C ice core). The pink ellipses show clearly where TA starts rising before CO2 which keeps lagging all along except for the degassing hysteresis oceanic effect when T stabilizes (between -15 and -13kyr). The Holocene, Younger Dryas (YD), Bølling–Allerød (B–A), Oldest Dryas (OD) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) intervals are indicated. Modified after: Shakun et al. (2012)................................................257

Figure 113. Lithosphere thickness in Antarctica from thermal isostasy, both the thinning of the lithosphere associated with high heat fluxes and the positioning of the young volcanoes (red triangles) show the new volcanic province identified. After Artemieva (2022)............................. .............259

Figure 114. Arctic monthly sea ice extent anomaly as per https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index shows a -7.2 ± 0.9% decrease per decade over the period (1979-2022), https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png . Methodology described at https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/G02135-V3.0_0.pdf....................................................................261

Figure 115. The Sea Ice Thickness and extent provides a quick look at Arctic-wide changes in sea ice, here for April 15, 2020, somewhere around its maximum yearly extension as displayed in the superimposed sinusoid. Source: from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), as per http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/, see also http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ and http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/............................262

Figure 116. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (in Blue), Station Data: Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W) Iceland and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (in Red) “ESRL AMO index” superimposed. Eastern Arctic temperatures closely track the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2. Source: https://realclimatescience.com/arctic-sea-ice-unchanged-from-60-years-ago/.........................................................263

Figure 117. a) ~-7,000 years with significantly higher NH summer insolation than today, whereas it was lower in the SH (opposite in winter) led to a shift of the ITCZ, located north of its present position, with the PF also displaced well to the north in the North Atlantic sector. These conditions may be representative for the average conditions between -6,000 and -8,000. b) Modern atmospheric systems of the North Atlantic region (may also represent average conditions for the period 0–3,000 years BP, where an overall ‘neo-glacial’ regime with more frequent meridional atmospheric circulation patterns. PF, atmospheric Polar Front; ITCZ, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The yellow arrows indicate the dominant wind directions and explain why it rained 7,000 years in the Green Sahara, whereas dry Trade winds prevail today. After Ting et al. (2008)............ ........264

Figure 118. Differences among the GCM projections of the rate of Arctic sea ice loss. Timeline toward seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions indicated by Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent during the twenty-first century scaled

by the 1980–2000 mean September value for each model. See Peng et al. (2020) for a forecast of the first ice-free Arctic summer year (FIASY). From Eisenman et al. (2011)...........................................................................................266

Figure 119. Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979 for the North Pole region, based on satellite observations (University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA). This graph uses data obtained by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) TIROS-N satellite, interpreted by Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy, both at Global Hydrology and Climate Center, University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA. Thick lines are the simple running 37 month average, nearly corresponding to a running 3 yr average. After Ole Humlum's https://www.climate4you.com/....................... .....268

Figure 120. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 16, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data, from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ ........................269

Figure 121. Climate-related death risk has decreased 99.6% since the 1920s. From Lomborg (2020b).........................................273

Figure 122. pH of ocean water and rain water versus concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Calculated with (7f) ; Ocean alkalinity [Alk] = 2.3 × 10−3 M. Rain alkalinity [Alk] = 0. Temperature T = 25°C. After Cohen and Happer (2015).......279

Figure 123. Inorganic carbon in ocean water: bicarbonate [HCO3−], carbonate [CO32−] and total [C]= Total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon= ∑unchargedCO2 + [HCO3−] + [CO32−] versus concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Calculated with (7f), (7d), (7b) and ∑CO2 = α PCO2, under the assumption of complete chemical equilibrium. The ocean alkalinity is [Alk] = 2.3 × 10−3 F/kg (or M) and the temperature is T = 25°C. After Cohen and Happer (2015)..........................................279

Figure 124. Bjerrum plot of inorganic carbon in ocean water: DIC species met at 25°C and constant salinity as a function of pH with uncharged species [CO2(aq)] + [H2CO3] , bicarbonate [HCO3−], carbonate [CO32−]. Source Wikipedia............280

Figure 125. 550 Myr of Paleolatitudinal distribution of 2910 reef sites through pre-Quaternary Phanerozoic time. Shaded area indicates modern reef zone, and enveloping pair of lines demarcates inferred width of ancient tropical reef zone. Thick-line ellipses indicate distinct high-latitude reef provinces, dashed-line ellipses refer to isolated reefs of problematic affinity, and angular blocks indicate significant reef gaps in low latitudes. Straight dashed lines demarcate major mass-extinction events. Note that, compared to today, the ancient reef zone was often more confined. After Kiessling (2001)................... ..........281

Figure 126. Monthly SSTA (dashed line) with respect to a 47-year-long record of sea surface temperature (SST) derived from Sr/Ca and U/Ca analysis of a massive Porites coral which grew at ~-4150 B.P. in Vanuatu (southwest tropical Pacific Ocean) and 24-month running annual amplitude (solid line) according to (Corrège et al., 2000)...............................286

Figure 127. No trend for more then 330 years of pH reconstructions based on Diploastrea heliopora coral proxy records (δ11B-pH reconstruction). New Caledonia D. heliopora annually resolved records over the period 1689–2011 CE from precisely dated 230Th/U-age. a Coral δ11B signature (left y axis) with estimated seawater pH (pHSW) on the right y axis using the δ11BSW = 39.61‰ and isotopic fractionation factor (α[B3-B4]) of 1.0272. After Wu et al. (2018).......................289

Figure 128. Global surface ocean pH on the total hydrogen scale (pHT) at in-situ temperature, shows the Hot zones with a pH < 8 and Cold zones with a pH > 8.25 as explained, based on the 6th version of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCATv6, ~23 million observations). After Jiang et al. (2019)......................................................................................................291

Figure 129. Seawater pCO2 as a function of temperature (T). Source: Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow (2003), Fig. 1.4.18, p. 64...........291

Figure 130. Total heat flux (dashed) versus total O2 flux from Bopp et al (2002) model (solid line). Inter-annual variations of total O2 flux and total heat flux are smoothed with a 10-year running mean. The two variables are linearly correlated (R2 = 0.95), with an out-gassing of 0.195 mole O2 m-2 yr-1, for a warming of 1 W m-2. This slope is similar for 1860 – 1960 (0.192 with R2 = 0.56) and for 1960 – 2100 including model projections (0.204 with R2 = 0.97). Adapted from Bopp et al (2002).......................................... .......................291

Figure 131. Global surface ocean CO2 flux computed from ΔpCO2 NH winter (top) and NH summer (below). The wide area located between the bold lines 0 and broadly covering the surface spanning from one tropic to the other represent where the warm oceans out-gas whereas the high latitudes NH and SH beyond the isoline 0 represent natural sinks where cold waters absorb CO2. After Bopp and Le Quéré (2009)...............................................................................292

Figure 132. Ice-core records of sulfur to infer atmospheric deposition (yellow circles) from two ice cores in Greenland and two ice cores in Antarctica. More than 100 individual eruptions are reconstructed based on the timing of sulfate deposition over the ice-sheets. Notice the Temperature anomaly and the Roman Warm Period (RWP) which compares with modern temperatures and and the MWP. After Sigl et al. (2015b).............................................................................295

Figure 133. Global volcanic aerosol forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations for the past 2,500 years. a) Treegrowth anomalies and reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for Europe and the Arctic with the 40 coldest single years and the 12 coldest decades. b) Reconstructed global volcanic aerosol impact from bipolar (NH/SH) sulfate composite records from tropical (bipolar), Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere eruptions. The 40 largest volcanic signals are indicated, with ages for events stronger than the Tambora 1815 eruption. After Sigl et al. (2015b). ............................301

Figure 134. a) left: The West European Rift Zone with its Tertiary grabens and the thickness of the lithosphere. Square: West Eifel volcanoe field. b) right: The West and East Eifel volcanic field. The NW-SE trends of both field and the tectonic structures underlying the Middle Rhine River follow the maximum compressive component of the present day stress field. Laacher See is just left (West) of Neuwied, upper-right corner. After Lorenz and Zimanowski (2008)...............306

Figure 135. MODTRAN is used to simulate the upward IR heat flux for varying conditions: a-c) top-left and bottom-left gives the reference: no Cloud or rain 400 ppm Upward IR Heat Flux 298.52W/m2. b) No Cloud or rain 800 ppm Upward IR Heat

Flux 295.19W/m2 - notice how hardly discennable it is from the reference a and d) Cumulus Cloud Base @ .66km Top @ 2.7km Upward IR Heat Flux 269.82W/m2. The flux difference between a-b is 3.33 W/m2 and between c-d is 28.7W/m2. Thus adding a cumulus cloud base has an effect that is 8.62 times more important than doubling CO2!328

Figure 136. Massive dispersion of ECS values from abrupt 4xCO2 for 20 CMIP6 models (with time-varying feedbacks), Blue bars: ECS extrapolated from 150yrs Gregory regression. Grey bars: ECS extrapolated from the last 130yr. After Yue Dong from Schmidt (2019)....................................................................................................................................................337

Figure 137. CMIP6 GCM surface temperature simulations (red, models with ECS > 3; blue, models with ECS ≤ 3) against the temperature observations (green): UAH MSU v.6.0 Tlt. From Scafetta (2021c)..........................................................338

Figure 138. Large Ensemble Models: selection, with choices from the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI, 100 members & four forcing scenarios, only large ensemble available that includes RCP 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario) from Maher et al. (2019), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL SPEAR, 30 members from the RCP 8.5) from Delworth et al. (2019), the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project (NCAR – 42 members for RCP 8.5 & 15 members RCP 4.5) from Kay et al. (2015) and the CanESM2 are 50-member perturbed initial condition ensembles from 1950 to 2020, simulations were run to 2005 using CMIP5 historical forcings and then to 2020 using RCP 8.5 forcings. Next is the Demiurgic project of Zheng et al. (2022).....................................................................................342

Figure 139. Skills of weather forecast for the 36 and 72 hour forecast up to 2004, since 1955, giving the trends of the improvement of these forecast since the birth of the Numerical Weather Models, ca. 1955. After Lynch (2008)......344

Figure 140. ECMWF lead time of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) reaching multiple thresholds, High resolution (HRES) 500 hPa height forecasts............................... ...............345

Figure 141. Dramatic Mesoscale Convective System that struck six countries starting from Barcelona over the night of 17 to 18 August 2022 landing over Corsica with winds up to 224 km/h without any weather forecast or warning issued by "Meteo France"...........................................................................................................................................................345

Figure 142. The dramatic cold spell that left dozens of people dead in Texas alone, show the abysmal failure of “seasonal forecast” (top figure) made on Jan 21, 2021 @ 1:16 PM as compared to real “temperature map only” observed on Feb 13, 2021 @7:35 AM.............................. ..........348

Figure 143. >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether use is made of their own surface temperature dataset, i.e. HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012), or of UAH satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures. After Spencer (2014)................. .....355

Figure 144. Global average mid-tropospheric temperature variations (5-year averages) for 32 models (lines) representing 102 individual simulations. Circles (balloons) and squares (satellites) depict the observations. The Russian model (INMCM4) was the only model close to the observations (Christy, 2016)...........................................................................356

Figure 145. Computer models and chaotic results: Lorenz effect. 30 results of the same program which ran with initial conditions different from one thousandth of a degree Celsius: the trends over 1963-2013 of the surface temperatures in North America are represented, between -5°C (blue) and + 5°C (red). Down on the right EM (Ensemble Mean is the mean of the 30 runs) OBS is observed conditions. Image from Kay et al. (2015) and Snider (2016), also see Buizza (2002).....357

Figure 146. IPCC-AR5 Figure 11.9 | (a) Projections of global mean, annual mean surface air temperature 1986–2050 (anomalies relative to 1986–2005) under RCP4.5 from CMIP5 models (blue lines, one ensemble member per model), with four observational estimates: Hadley Centre/Climate Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 3 (HadCRUT3); European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) interim reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions; Goddard Institute of Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the period 1986–2011 (black lines). Note that UAH data series are not among the data sets used. Source (IPCC, 2013a), p. 981......... 361

Figure 147. IPCC-AR5 Figure 11.19 | Projected changes in annual averaged, globally averaged, surface ocean temperature based on 12 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 (Meehl et al., 2007b) multi-model ensemble, under 21st century scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Shading indicates the 90% range of projected annual global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies computed against the 1986–2005 average from the historical simulations of each model. Source (IPCC, 2013a), p. 993..............................................................362

Figure 148. Panel (A), SRES scenarios from IPCC AR4 WGI Figure SPM.5 (IPCC, 2007) p.14, with uncertainty bars representing, the±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. Panel (B) the identical SRES scenarios showing the ±1σ uncertainty bars due to the annual average ±4 Wm−2 CMIP5 TCF long-wave tropospheric thermal flux calibration error propagated in annual steps through the projections. After Frank (2019).........................................364

Figure 149. Tropical average mid-tropospheric temperature variations (5-year averages) for 32 models (lines) representing 102 individual simulations. Circles (balloons) and squares (satellites) depict the observations. Source: Christy (2016)....382

Figure 150. Data Tampering Past The Climate Tipping Point (Goddard, 2019). Three versions of the NASA GISS Global Land Surface Temperature Anomaly. Source: Goddard (2019) https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=8tODIRhhV80&feature=youtu.be ..................... .384

Figure 151. The derivate of the increase dt2019/dt2017 of the NASA GISS Global Land Surface Temperature Anomaly. Source: Goddard (2019) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tODIRhhV80&feature=youtu.be ..........................................384

Figure 152. Resulting UAH v6.0 Global Average Temperature time series of LT (lower-troposphere), MT (mid-troposphere, from MSU2/AMSU5), TP (our new “tropopause level” product, from MSU3/AMSU7) and LS (lower stratosphere, from MSU4/AMSU9) from Spencer et al. (2015)............. ..................................................387

Figure 153. Globally averaged SSTAs from ERSSTv5 (solid red line), ERSSTv4 (dotted blue line), HadISST (solid black line), and COBE-SST2 (dashed green line). For an analysis of the warming spanning 1910-1940 see Egorova et al. (2018b). Source: Huang et al. (2017)........................ ............387

Figure 154. NZ Temperature anomaly (unadjusted) as per TNZCSC (2009), b) After Salinger's undocumented adjustments: Mean annual temperature over New Zealand, from 1853 to 2008 inclusive, based on between 2 (from 1853) and 7 (from 1908) long-term station records. The blue and red bars show annual differences from the 1971-2000 average, the solid black line is a smoothed time series, and the dotted [straight] line is the linear trend over 1909 to 2008 (0.92°C/100 years) NIWA (2007), c) period 1909-2015 NIWA (2020) as per Wratt et al. (2020)..................................391

Figure 155. NZ Temperature anomaly: revised trend analysis (Gray, 2011), showing a very slight downward trend from 19091943, a sudden rise from 1945-50 and a slow rise from 1950 to 2010; after a private communication with Leyland, B., 2010. ............................................. ........................392

Figure 156. April 1st at Paris-le Bourget (now a well known airport) 1900-2019 series. It ranges between -2°C and +13°C; Source knmi-explorer. After Veyres (2020e).................. ...394

Figure 157. 1920-2020 Time-series of max and min temperatures in January at Lyon (Bron), France, green vertical lines: for each year give the range between the average of the min and the average of the max; blue and red dots extreme temperatures in January of the year considered; source: www.infoclimat.fr, After Veyres (2020e)...........................395

Figure 158. 1921-2019 July precipitations at Lyon (Bron) with a mean of 62.21 mm/month with the monthly precipitations in blue and the max precipitations for one day represented as violet dots. After Veyres (2020e)..........................................395

Figure 159. 1900-2010 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) 0-300m between 60S-60N, in ordinates the unit is 100 106 J/m2 (or 100 MJ/m2). The two periods of accelerated warming correspond to change of phases of PDO (-) and AMO (+) From Boisséson de (2017).....................................................................................................................................................397

Figure 160. Leatherman (1990), Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research, University of Maryland, forecast a large breach in northern Assateague Island in his “Environmental Implications of Shores Protection Strategies along Open Coasts” paper, with the projected year 2020 shoreline. The 2022 Google Earth image shows how wrong he was.................416

Figure 161. USS Skate (SSN-578) was the third nuclear submarine commissioned, the first to make a completely submerged transAtlantic crossing, and the second submarine to reach the North Pole and the first to surface there..........................418

Figure 162. Effects of changing concentrations of carbon dioxide, CO2 on the filtered spectral flux Ž{i} (ν, zmp, f) at the ⟨⟩ mesopause altitude, zmp = 86 km, obtained line by line calculations (300klines) based on HITRAN. Below Planck's blue curve (area 394W/m2 for T0 = 288.7 K) is a jagged black curve, known as the Schwarzschild curve. It shows how much less the Earth radiates infrared radiation to space with the current concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG), i.e. water vapor H2O, nitrous oxide N2O, carbon dioxide CO2, ozone O3, and methane CH4. Because of the greenhouse gases, the Earth radiates 277 W/m2 to space, the area under the black curve, i.e. 70% (277/394) of what it would radiate without its oceans, its atmosphere and all the GHGs. The green line is with CO2 removed and the red curve is the radiation emitted to space if CO2 concentrations were to be doubled from 400 to 800 ppm. As can be seen, the difference is hardly noticeable, a decrease of radiation to space of about 3 W/m2, thus down from 277 to 274 W/m2, a minuscule decrease of 1.1% for a 100% increase of CO2 ! It is not hard to understand why IPPC do not want this to be shown.After van Wijngaarden and Happer (2019, 2020)....................................................................446 Figure 163. Not only contrary to what Onians (2000) stated it keeps snowing in temperate and northern regions but the whimsical climate doing what it pleases has started to surprise everybody by repeatedly snowing in unusual places where it had not for 40 years or simply ever (down-left), like the Moroccan or Algerian desert, and even in Saudi Arabia! It surely is because of global warming, isn't it? Upper left is Aïn Séfra, Algeria (Dec. 21 2016), upper/middleright is the Moroccan desert in Ouarzazate, Riad Dar Chamaa (Jan. 20 2017), (Photo credit: Christina Angell Ait Daoud), down-right is Merzouga snow-dunes early 2018 and the background picture is in Saudi Arabia (Jan 12 2020), where the Dahr Mountains and Jabal Al-Lowz in Tabuk Province were blanketed by large quantities of snow, but also Al-Lowz rural Center, Al-Abyad Valley (Al-Wadi Al-Abyad), Wadhil, Al-Uluw, Al-Mahraq and Maklaha......................463

Figure 164. Eight alternative reconstructions of the mean temperature over all land north of 20°N (observations shown by dotted line for 1871-1994). The preferred reconstruction based on principal component regression is shown by the thick line for 1402-1994. Source: Briffa et al. (2001)........ .....470

Figure 165. Comparison of Briffa et al 2008 superstick to yamal_trw chronology of Briffa et al 2013. Both in z-scores. Source: McIntyre (2013)..................................... ................471

Figure 166. % of days for all United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN1) stations over 90 degrees F. Source: Steven Goddard (Heller, 2016)................................................................................................................................................472

Figure 167. Landesanstalt für Medien NRW, i.e. State Agency for Media NRW, slogan: Der Meinungsfreiheit verpflichtet, i.e. Committed to freedom of expression (sic!), Orwell would not believe his nightmares have become everyday truth as per his dystopian social science fiction novel, see Orwell, G., (i.e. Blair, E. A.) 1949....................................................494

Figure 168. Tropical Cyclone Tracks, since 1949 in the pacific and since 1851 in the Atlantic. Mark Hertsgaard must tell the deniers which one they are responsible of? Which cyclone must the scapegoats be accountable of? Does Mark Hertsgaard believe that even if mankind were to disappear entirely from this planet, tropical cyclones would suddenly cease to exist? How come? Appalling........ ................................................496

Figure 169. Image of the calculated Table for the ECS of 0.84°C, that gives for each country its emissions in MtCO2/yr, the % of the total emissions (35881 MtCO2/yr) that it represents, its annual contribution to the yearly warming and its contribution to the warming until 2050 if emissions keep going unabated until then.................................................499

Figure 170. Science made by IPCC during a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) writing meeting (Lynn, 2016). In February 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took an unprecedented step, citing mis- and disinformation and the “politicization of science” as key barriers to action. King et al (2022) report “For the first time, a document accepted by all Member Governments stated that rhetoric from “vested economic and political interests… undermines climate science”. Who politicized and trashed science? It is the pot calling the kettle black!................510

Figure 171. Detailed monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory over 2017-2022, Hawaii, After https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.............................................................................................................................515

Figure 173. Sequence of dated past neoglaciation events at high-elevation locations in the Alps. Note the general correspondence between glacier maximum age and its altitude. The blue shaded area indicates the period of continuous ice cover. Also shown are the tree line reconstruction from Kaunertal (Nicolussi et al., 2005). After Bohleber et al. (2020)............................. ...............522

Figure 174. One reconstruction of the air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, derived from Greenland ice cores, GISP-2. It provides a brief context to show the wider natural range of temperature over the last 11,000 years, some variations exceeding ±3°C over a century or so (e.g. 8.2 kyr event). Also notice that at the beginning of the Holocene, the Central Greenland ice core record shows 10°C (18°F) of warming in 144 years, from 11,755 BP to 11,611 BP (May, 2020a). The drop at 5480 BP corresponds to an extreme solar minima (Miyake et al., 2017, 2021) and a global climate change regime known as the 5.2 kyr event (Thompson et al., 2006). From climate4you.com but also matches perfectly Fig. 5, p. 1219 given by Akasofu (2010) and Ball (2016b). Data from ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/..............................................523

10. Lexical Index

4.2 ka BP mega drought...................15, 147 sv, 164, 526

8.2 ka Cold Event..................................15, 153, 165, 526

Airborne Fiction...........................................................61

Akkadian Empire....................................147 sv, 164, 526

Albert Arnold Gore Jr......23, 187, 240, 268 sv, 434, 443, 452, 455, 459 sv, 473, 491

Albert Einstein..................................................................

quote............................................................................654

Alfred Wegener............................21, 118, 174, 328, 488

Aristarchus of Samos..............................................21, 26

Aristotle........................................................................21

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)...... response to freshwater inputs & IRD............................159 weakening of................................................................258

Bølling–Allerød..158 sv, 165, 253, 257 sv, 286, 447, 527

Carl Sagan........................................................29 sv, 490

Catastrophic Anthropic Global Warming (CAGW)30, 51, 81, 96, 103 sv, 112, 114, 116, 121, 125, 127, 132, 139, 159, 165, 171, 184 sv, 190, 211, 238 sv, 247, 251 sv, 259, 263, 271, 358, 371, 390, 392 sv, 396 sv, 399 sv, 417, 420, 424, 439, 442, 447, 449 sv, 454 sv, 460 sv, 464, 467, 487 sv, 490, 492 sv, 496, 518, 524 sv, 528 sv, 534 sv

consensus.........................................................................

Cook et al. (2013)...........................................................30

consensus wreckers.................................

Alfred Wegener..............................................................22

Barbara McClintock........................................................22

Galileo Galilei..................................................................21

Giordano Bruno..............................................................21

Rudolf Virchow...............................................................22

Dansgaard-Oeschger..................................158, 163, 438

event 19.......................................................................163

solar origin (of).............................................................158

deglaciation......................................................................

sequence of events.......................................................257

Earth..............................................

solar flux.....................................................30, 70, 79, 529

Earth System Sensitivity (ESS)..........................................

definition........................................................................88

equations............................................

Catastrophic Anthropic Global Warming (CAGW)........115

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)............................... definition............................................................16, 88, 96

Eratosthenes of Cyrene..........................................21, 26 fact-checkers (confusers).................................................

Ottmar Edenhofer........................................................430

Reuters.........................................................................494

François-Marie Bréon................................117, 455, 479

Fred Singer.....................................................19, 29, 491

Freeman Dyson.....18, 20, 80, 118, 128, 328, 334, 355, 398, 439, 457, 466 sv, 517, 538, 654

George Stokes..........................................................375 glaciation.............................................

Andean-Saharan.................................136, 181, 188, 282

Cryogenian.................................................................188

Cryogenian188...........................................................136 extinctions (trigerred by)....................................189, 282 global (snowball Earth)..............................................189

Huronian................................................................187 sv

Huronian187..............................................................136

Karoo.........................................................................282

Late Paleozoic............................................................188

Late Paleozoic190......................................................136

Marinoan...................................................................282

Mi-1...........................................................................282

mid-Brunhes (Climate Transition)..............................168 next (to come)......................................................27, 156 Oi-1....................................................................176, 282 Oi‐2b..................................................................176, 282 Oligocene...................................................................175

Ordovician..................................................................454

Quaternary.........................................................137, 169 termination..................................................................55

green Sahara.......121, 136, 147 sv, 165, 220, 264, 512, 523, 526, 533

half-life...........................................................39, 41, 46

Hans Suess........................................... effect......................................................................36, 43 Harrison Schmitt........................................................23

Heinrich............................................ event..................................................................158, 228 mode..........................................................................229 stadial.........................................................165, 286, 527 stadial 1 (H1)......................................................149, 159

Henry Louis Le Chatelier..........................................137

Henry Navier............................................................375

Henry-Louis Mencken..............................................520

Henry's law...............................292, 436, 460, 529, 533

Hvalsey Church........................................................262

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)........................ neoglacial regime.......................................................523 shift South of (during Holocene)................................150 southward displacement of.......................................159 isopycnic surfaces.................................... definition......................................................................37

Ivar Giaever, Nobel Laureate in Physics (1973).........23

James Hansen..............19, 38, 417, 439, 473, 484, 532

Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele.......................23, 422 sv, 473 Johannes Kepler...........21, 26, 321, 356, 381, 443, 474 Laschamps event...........................................................

consequences...............................................................152

Last Glacial Maximum.....14, 137, 158, 160, 238 sv, 527, 533

lifetime or residence time......................................39, 46

logical fallacies........................................

ad-hominem............................................27, 244, 431, 513 argument from adverse consequences........................512 argument from authority...22, 26, 130, 247, 389, 426, 443 confusion of correlation and causation..51, 137, 389, 423, 443

post hoc ergo propter hoc....................................283, 529 statistics of small numbers.............................................24

lysocline............................................

lysocline (definition).....................................................177

Mars................................................

atmosphere....................................................................71

ground pressure.............................................................71

solar flux...................................................................30, 79

Maurice Strong..................402 sv, 411, 433 sv, 439, 441

Near-Earth Objects (NEO)................................................

Apophis........................................................................185 collision with................................................................534 definition........................................................................43

neoglaciation.......................................... high-elevation glaciers..................................................523

Nicolaus Copernicus.......................................21, 26, 487 periodogram..........................................

definition......................................................................199

Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHO)..................... inventory......................................................................185 resonance (orbital)........................197, 204 sv, 521, 525

Richard Lindzen..19, 27, 180, 267, 310, 398 sv, 465, 537

Richard Lindzen736,...................................................653

Richard P. Feynman.....................................

quote..............................................................25, 451, 654

Roger Pielke Sr...................................... resignation letter to IPCC..........................................9, 437

Sadi Carnot...............................................................7, 21

tachocline...................................................204, 206, 525

Tim Ball.......................................................................410

Transient Climate Response (TCR)...................................

definition........................................................................88

Tycho Brahe...............................................................381

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)..................................... creation..................................................................27, 403 mission, objective.........................................................436

Strong, M. - Earth Summit............................................433

UNFCCC........................................................................437

Venus................................................................................

atmosphere....................................................................71

ground pressure.....................................................71, 453

solar flux.................................................................30, 79 surface temperature..................................................453 volcanic eruptions.......................................................... 536-540 CE.................................................................305

Agung.........................................................................296

Askja..........................................................................297

Cosigüina....................................................................297

Deccan.......................................................................184

Deception Island........................................................303

El Chichón...........................................................294, 296

Eldgjá.........................................................................300

Etna....................................................................293, 302 Fujiyama.....................................................................141

Grímsvötn..................................................................298

high-latitude stratospheric eruptions........................304

Huaynaputina.............................................................299

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai.....................................295

inatubo.......................................................................295

Kolumbo.....................................................................302

Krakatau.....................................................................297

Ksudach..............................................................297, 301

Kuwae........................................................................299

La Garita.....................................................................178

Laki.....................................................................294, 298

Large Igneous Provinces.............................................307

Mount Gamkonora....................................................299

Mount Pinatubo.............................................157, 294 sv Mt St Helens...............................................................296

Novarupta..................................................................296

Okataina.............................................................297, 300

Paektu Mountain.......................................................300

Parker.........................................................................299

Phlegraean Fields...............................................161, 303

Piton de la Fournaise..................................................141

Rabaul........................................................................301

Samalas......................................................................300

Santa Maria................................................................297

Santorini.....................................................................141

Serua/Banda Api........................................................299

Tambora.....................................................................298

Tarawera....................................................................302

Tarawera / Taupo.......................................................302

Toba...........................................................................303

Vesuvius.............................................................141, 302

Yellowstone...............................................................307

William Happer......................19, 187, 465, 491 sv, 537

William Happer734..................................................652

William Henry..........................................................456

Henry's law...47, 51 sv, 86, 129, 131, 137, 155, 160, 166, 172, 176, 180, 218, 258, 278, 280, 374 Henry's law constants..................................................51

Younger Dryas149, 158 sv, 161, 165, 253, 257 sv, 286, 305, 447, 527, 533 ......................328, 334

11. Reviews and Support from Leading Scientists

I am grateful for the reviews and support I received and I have deeply appreciated them. Let me mention the following:

“I have never seen a more thorough and complete book on the Earth's climate than this extensive work. Patrice, congratulations!” — personal communication, September 19, 2022. Dr. Ir. A.J. (Guus) Berkhout735. Pr. Berkhout accepted in 1976 a Chair at Delft University of Technology in the field of geophysical and acoustical imaging. During 1998 –2001 he has been a member of the University Board. Pr. Berkhout has developed a large number of geophysical concepts and algorithms. He has written several hundred scientific papers and a number of books in the field of geophysics and innovation. In 1997, he was invited by the OECD to advice on science and technology issues. Professor Guus Berkhout is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), of the Netherlands Academy of Engineering (AcTI), honorary member of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) as well as honorary member of the European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers (EAGE).

“Your book looks terrific. :-) I truly hope it receives wide readership, Patrice. From the news, it seems the entire world is reaching 'peak-stupid' as regards climate. Your book shows a path back to sanity. Very best, Pat.” — personal communication, September 14, 2021. Dr. Patrick Frank736 is a scientific affiliate, Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource/SLAC, National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, CA, USA.

“Dick Lindzen brought your work to my attention a few months ago. We both think it is excellent. Your book has an immense amount of material, all of it with good literature citations. The historical discussions of Arrhenius and other pioneers is very well done. It is clear that you haver personally read what these people wrote, and are not repeating second-hand sources. I like the rigor of your discussions of key issues with crisp and appropriate equations. For example, even in very good text books on radiative transfer, it is unusual to see a discussion like yours on how exponential-integral functions can be used to efficiently account for the contribution of slant rays to the vertical flux through the atmosphere. I hope you will continue your work in this area. The world needs you. Best wishes, Will.” personal communication, March 13, 2021 — Pr. William Happer737, is the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Emeritus, at Princeton University, NJ, USA, and a long-term member of the JASON advisory group, where he pioneered the development of adaptive optics. From 1991 to 1993, Will Happer served as director of the Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of the George H.W. Bush administration. William Happer is a fellow of the American Physical Society. Happer was elected as a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1995 and a member of the National Academy of Sciences in 1996

“Dr. Patrice Poyet, the author of “The Rational Climate e-Book” is one of the rare individuals of a species under risk to become extinct, i.e., that of scientists with broad knowledge, neat thought and adherence to reason. He is also a seeker of truth irrespective of other interests, which means that he serves real science and philosophy, as it was imagined and defined by Plato and Aristotle, who also distinguished it from sophistry. The book is an excellent alloy of physics, mathematics, climatology, geosciences, scientific reasoning, and review of concepts, including their historical development. Its fascinating style of writing makes its reading both enjoyable and enlightening.” personal communication, September 15, 2022 — Pr. Demetris

735https://www.aj-berkhout.com/bio/

736https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Patrick-Frank-4

737https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Happer and https://phy.princeton.edu/people/william-happer

Koutsoyiannis - Professor (retired) of Hydrology and Analysis of Hydrosystems in the National Technical University of Athens738, Greece. Demetris has served as Dean of the School of Civil Engineering, Head of the Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, and Head of the Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources Development. He has been awarded the International Hydrology Prize – Dooge medal (2014) by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), UNESCO and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Henry Darcy Medal (2009) by the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

"Your book is amazing. I may not agree with everything in it, but the intensity of your research is beyond anything that I've seen. Best wishes for a better 2021, Dick", personal communication, December 15, 2020 — Pr. Richard Lindzen739, Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus, Alfred P. Sloan Professorship in Atmospheric Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. Richard Lindzen was a lead author of the AR3's Chapter 7, "Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks" of the IPCC, he is also a member of the US National Academy of Sciences.

"I really enjoyed the holistic approach of your analysis. In another sense, this text is a very sharp knife, rare to find, in today's mediocre world of science. This is as valuable as the evidence presented by the calculations in the text.", personal communication, July 22, 2022 — Prof. Dr. Juan José Neiff740 - Senior Researcher at Center for applied Ecology (CECOAL - National Council for Scientific and Technical Research), Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, National University of the Northeast, Argentina. His interest involve the dynamic and sustainable use of river and wetland systems, especially those that allow to analyze the dependence of the ecological structures and processes regarding the hydrological regime. He has worked in river and wetland systems since 1970 and Neiff's team has developed the software PULSE (http://www.neiff.com.ar)

“Dear Patrice, Congratulation with a monumental work of great value.“ email to Clintel discussion list, September 21, 2022 — Pr. Jan-Erik Solheim741, Professor Emeritus of The Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics at University of Oslo, and studies Ionosphere, Ecosystem Functions and Services, and Environmental Systems Analysis. Jan-Erik is also Professor at The Arctic University of Norway (UiT) and was the head of the Scientific and Technical Committee for the Nordic Optical Telescope, which was built on La Palma, Canary Islands. He participated in the organization of an international astronomical observation network — The Whole Earth Telescope.

“Dr. Patrice Poyet is a generalist as all good scientist should be. He has produced a very much needed comprehensive review of climate science bringing in the broadest possible ranges of expertise including geological science, planetary orbital dynamics, computer modeling to detailed knowledge on radiative transfer as well as the deeper understanding and application of thermodynamics. I admitted to not having the time to fully master Dr. Poyet's magnum opus but I would recommend those that wish to hear from a truly independent and unbiased view on climate science to study his e-book offered freely to all who wish to learn. This a true labor of love that I, for one, deeply appreciate Dr. Patrice Poyet's contribution to the discussion and debate.” personal communication, September 7, 2022 — Dr. Willie Soon742, astrophysicist and geoscientistAstrophysicist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the HarvardSmithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) since 1997 and former Astronomer at the Mount Wilson Observatory, CA, USA (1992-2009).

738http://www.itia.ntua.gr/dk/ Demetris Koutsoyiannis retired as of September 1, 2022.

739https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen and https://eapsweb.mit.edu/people/rlindzen

740https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jj-Neiff and https://en.unne.edu.ar/

741https://www.researchgate.net/profile/J-E-Solheim

742https://www.ceres-science.com/willie-soon and https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/

Science (and AGW) as seen by the greatest who left us

“In the modern world, science and society often interact in a perverse way. We live in a technological society, and technology causes political problems. The politicians and the public expect science to provide answers to the problems. Scientific experts are paid and encouraged to provide answers. The public does not have much use for a scientist who says, “Sorry, but we don’t know.” The public prefers to listen to scientists who give confident answers to questions and make confident predictions of what will happen as a result of human activities. So it happens that the experts who talk publicly about politically contentious questions tend to speak more clearly than they think. They make confident predictions about the future, and end up believing their own predictions. Their predictions become dogmas which they do not question. The public is led to believe that the fashionable scientific dogmas are true, and it may sometimes happen that they are wrong. That is why heretics who question the dogmas are needed.”

— Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus in the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton and a member of the Board of Sponsors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, excerpt from “Frederick S. Pardee Distinguished Lecture” (Oct 2005), Boston University. Collected in 'Heretical Thoughts About Science and Society', A Many-Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe (2007), 43-44.

“The whole point of science is to question accepted dogma.”

― Freeman Dyson

“ Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”

― Albert Einstein, Nobel Prize in Physics in 1921

“I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.”

― Richard P. Feynman, Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965 jointly with Julian Schwinger and Shin'ichirō Tomonaga.

“No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles, nor to prescribe in any way the character of the questions investigated.”

― Richard P. Feynman in “The Meaning of It All” (1998), p. 57

“The global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it … has corrupted so many scientists … It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.” (October 6, 2010 resignation letter to the American Physical Society)

― Harold W. Lewis, Emeritus Professor of Physics and former department chairman at the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)

“This IPCC report [The Science of Climate Change 1995], like all others, is held in such high regard largely because it has been peer-reviewed. That is, it has been read, discussed, modified and approved by an international body of experts. These scientists have laid their reputations on the line. But this report is not what it appears to be -- it is not the version that was approved by the contributing scientists listed on the title page. In my more than 60 years as a member of the American scientific community, including service as president of both the National Academy of Sciences and the American Physical Society, I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report”.

― Frederick Seitz, 4th president of Rockefeller University from 1968–1978, and the 17th president of the United States National Academy of Sciences from 1962–1969. Seitz was the recipient of the National Medal of Science, NASA's Distinguished Public Service Award, and other honors

The Rational Climate e-Book

Cooler is Riskier

The Extended 2nd Edition

Patrice POYET

The second edition of “The Rational Climate” has been significantly improved and extended and aims, as the first, to address all aspects of climate and paleo-climates, from atmospheric physics, to astronomical influences and geological and geochemical drivers. It covers the computer models claiming to simulate the climate and the policies that are projected from them.

Climate science has reached a tipping point, where it has become a requirement to be rational again. One cannot stay idle, twiddling his thumbs when our most fundamental freedoms are going to be threatened by an unfounded climate urgency.

The worse predictions have been made for 50 years and none of them has ever happened to become true. Time to revisit and analyse the scare mongers strategies. For example, despite the unsupported claims that the Maldive islands will be submerged by 2050, 97% of them have grown so far, for various reasons having nothing to do with "climate change".

Do not forget that in 1970, quite exactly 50 years ago, the first Earth Day promoted ice age fears, and environmentalist Nigel Calder warned "The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind" and C. C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said "The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed".

Science is a never ending journey, how could it be settled?

https://patricepoyet.org/

e-ISBN 978-99957-1-929-6 delivered by Malta's NBC/CPL National Book Council Central Public Library – Floriana MALTA