USAID’s Approach to Adaptation High Mountain and Glacier Watershed Program July 15, 2013 John Furlow, Global Climate Change Office USAID
USAID’s Climate and Development Strategy • Mitigation • Adaptation • Integration across Agency activities Adaptation emphasizes: • Highly vulnerable countries • Ability or willingness to respond • LDCS, SIDS, Glacierdependent countries
Weather, Climate, and Economics
• Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors • ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture
Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, Ethiopia: Rainfall, and Agric. GDP GDP GDP Growth
Adaptation Programs
Aim to reduce vulnerability in key development sectors • Build access and capacity to apply scientific information • Improve Governance • Implement programs • to build resilience.
Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Growth GCC Adaptation Inputs Information communication and use
Governance capacity
Today Vulnerable economy: • Climatesensitive economic activities
• Missing incentives and policies
2050 Resilient Economy:
Climate-resilient growth Agriculture, resource management
Economic and social development Education, infrastructure, etc.
• Uneven growth, income distribution • Weak governance
Planning and design
Low emissions development
New technologies
GCC Mitigation Inputs
Improved market conditions
Strategic financing
• Diversified economy • More equitable, income distribution • Safety from climate-related disasters • Adequate, clean energy
USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach
Requirements for development objectives Inputs Enabling environment
Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate Non-climate
Solutions
Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses Actions to reduce non-climate stresses Actions with co-benefits
ec neili s e R
Problem Formulation and Program Design
Development objectives
USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach: Food Security
Development objectives: Food Security
Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate – Extreme rainfall events, higher temps, drought, delayed rains Non-climate – Poor sanitation, rapid population growth, infectious disease, perverse incentives, poor infrastructure, risk aversion, post harvest losses
Solutions Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – e.g., access to tailored climate forecasts, seeds, water harvesting, irrigation, credit, insurance, etc. Actions to reduce non-climate stresses – WASH, health programs, better storage, etc
m I ec neili s e R
Problem Formulation and Program Design
Requirements for development objectives Inputs: seeds, land, water, fertilizer, labor, credit, savings, transport, markets, public health, etc. Enabling environment: Effective governance, stable society, land tenure, price incentives, etc.
Matching Information with Decisions
• • • • •
What is important to stakeholders? What decisions are being made? Which can you influence? What is the timeframe of the decision? What information would inform a better decision?
Global level Uncertainties are Large; Regional level are larger (Individual Model Runs and Averages)
East Africa
Giannini et al., 2007
Key Opportunities/Demands: Climate Change
Limitations of “traditional” climate change scenarios • Uncertainties
• Double Conflict of Scales (too course, too far in the future) • Trends (“Climate Change”) Explain Relatively Small Proportion of Total Variability
Walter Baethgen, IRI
Mean Monthly Rainfall in SW Uruguay (1910 – 2010)
350
Precipitation (mm)
300
Pick 15 years randomly
250 200 150 100 50 0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Month
Walter Baethgen, IRI
7
8
9
10
11
12
SW Uruguay: Monthly Precipitation (15 Randomly Selected Years) 350
Precipitation (mm)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Month
Walter Baethgen, IRI
7
8
9
10
11
12
None of the years behaves like the long term mean
Probability of a year being “Average” = ZERO Still, Planning/Decisions are often based on “AVERAGE” year
Can we do better? • • • •
Seasonal Climate Forecasts Understand Historical Variability / associated risks Study possible characteristics of Future Climate Link it to Decision Systems Walter Baethgen, IRI
Probability (Density)
Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS
Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) Walter Baethgen, IRI
Probability (Density)
Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS
Ag Production Systems, Water Management, are designed to avoid this HARDSHIP e.g., Drought
CRISIS e.g., Mitch
Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)
Walter Baethgen, IRI
Probability (Density)
Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS
Ag Production Systems, Water Management, are designed to avoid this
Also Critical For Development: Risk aversion reduces Technology Adoption Effect on Natural Resources “Poverty Traps”
HARDSHIP e.g., Drought
CRISIS e.g., Mitch
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) Walter Baethgen, IRI
Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS
Probability (Density)
Cover this to be able to take advantage of this HARDSHIP e.g., Drought
CRISIS e.g., Mitch
INDEX INSURANCE Insurance that does not aim to Compensate Damage but to Take Advantage of Opportunities
Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)
Jamaica’s Vision for Development
Climate elements of ImpactSensitive on Fisheries Jamaica’s Vision 2030 • • • • • • • • • • •
Healthy and Stable Population World Class Education Social Protection Stable Macro Economy Enabling Business Environment Strong Economic Infrastructure Energy Security Competitive Industries Sustainable Management of Resources Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation Sustainable Urban and Rural Development
ADDRESSING CLIMATE STRESS IN DEV. PROGRAMS Vision 2030 Economic drivers / Development objectives Food Security, Economic Growth, Tourism, Health
Inputs – Agricultural systems, fisheries, markets, natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor Essential conditions – Safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate – Natural disasters, changes in rainfall, temperature, sea level rise Non-climate – Demographic pressure, pollution, corruption, chronic poverty, conflict Solutions
Design
Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – Strengthen Weather/Climate Services, Improved early warnings, capacity building, public awareness, better natural resources management, financial services Actions to reduce non-climate stresses – Policy measures to address pollution
ec neili s e R ev or p m I
Diagnose problems
Requirements for development objectives
EXAMPLES FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS
EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM Internationally Competitive Industry Structures (Vision 2030 Outcome) Lack of access to training Beaches (Input)
Flooding
Pollution
Tourism (Sector)
Labor (Input)
Sea level rise
Coral reefs (Input) Warmer temps
Pollution
Greater rainfall intensity
Security/safety (Enabling condition)
Fuel costs Reliable Tropical transportation storms (Enabling condition) Energy costs
Sea level rise
Reliable electricity supply (Enabling condition)
Warmer temps
EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM Flooding Analyze & disseminate weather & climate info. Improve coastal resources management Update zoning regulations & building codes Share lessons learned
Beaches (Input)
Sea level rise
Pollution
Raise public awareness Policies to complement on-the-ground actions Enforce existing laws & regulations
Sea walls, groins, other manmade beach defenses Artificial reefs Update engineering and design standards
Restore coastal vegetation Beach nourishment Train developers & contractors in more resilient approaches
Climate Services: Jamaica Ag Extension and Met Service • Seasonal predictions of rainfall and drought conditions. – New systems for predicting drought conditions, based on the Standardized Precipitation Index – Additional work forecasting of soil moisture conditions
• Improving communication of agricultural climate risk management practices • Climate services implementation in three target agricultural sites: – SW St. Elizabeth, – Manchester/Christiana, – Guy’s Hill
Thank You
• USAID Climate Page –
http://www.usaid.gov/climate
• Adaptation Partnership –
http://www.adaptationpartnership.org/
• Climate Services Partnership –
http://climate-services.org/node