Climate Change, People, and Mountains
Kenneth R. Young Department of Geography and the Environment University of Texas at Aus>n kryoung@aus>n.utexas.edu
Cordillera Blanca
Glaciers as environmental buffers Changes in water supplies Implications for biodiversity conservation Implications for natural hazards
Cordillera Negra K. R. Young & J. K. Lipton. 2006. Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western South America. Climatic Change 78: 63-102
Expecta>ons for biodiversity, ecological zones, ecotones, agriculture 1) Biodiversity: Species 2) Biodiversity: Communi>es; Ecotones 3) Biodiversity: Ecosystems 4) Agrobiodiversity: Land use/Land cover
Biodiversity and climate change Species movements with climate change (Hole, Young, et al. SCOPE volume, 2011)
Separa>on of mutualists and other co-‐dependent species Nasa aff. solata
Passiflora parvifolia
Looking for change . . . The challenges of detec>ng subtle changes among species-‐rich biotas
Asunción Cano, Blanca León, botanists, San Marcos University, Lima
Agricultural strategies that control risk at household and community levels Get shifting landscape mosaics
Species shifts Ecotone shifts Ecosystem alterations Land use adaptations
A Coupled Natural-Human System Biophysical factors: ↑ Temperature ↑ Carbon dioxide ↓ Precipitation ↑ Height cloud bank
Soils
Vegetation and land cover:
Species distributions Species abundances and mutualisms Ecosystem productivity, fluxes
Land use and livelihood practices: Perceptions of climate change Capacity to respond individually Capacity to respond collectively
K.R. Young. 2009. Andean land use and biodiversity: Humanized landscapes in a time of change. Annals Missouri Botanical Garden 96: 492-507
Landscape ecology of rural Andean landscapes Land cover types: grasslands,
shrublands, forests, wetlands; croplands Patches of fields, tree plan>ngs Matrix of shrublands
Porlieria hygrometra Zygophyllaceae
Using Silverio & Jaquet (2009; J. Appl. Rem. Sensing) method of NDSI and NDVI on Landsat TM images, with elevational zones from DEM; NDVI=Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDSI=Normalized Difference Snow Index.
Huaraz
Primary Succession Park-People Conflicts Shrubland Encroachment Urban Expansion
Species movements in utilized landscapes with climate change (Hole, Young, et al. SCOPE volume, 2011)
Human water needs Environmental flows
Jeffrey Bury (PI), Mark Carey (Co-‐PI), Bryan Mark (Co-‐PI), Kenneth Young (Co-‐PI); “Hydrologic Transformation and Human Resilience to Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes”; National Science Foundation, Dynamics of Coupled Human-‐Natural Systems; Award #: 1010381.
Peak water model for the Cordillera Blanca
Results
Peak water
Baraer et al., 2012. Glacier recession and water resources in Perú’s Cordillera Blanca. Journal of Glaciology, 58 (207).
Molly Polk and wetland change
Land Cover Change
Landsat TM Data Processing Watershed Classifica4on Wetland/Non-‐ wetland
2000
2006
2011
• Wetlands: ini>al expansion, now at least some contrac>on • Glaciers: >25% loss in area • Hydrology: nonlinear rela>onship; valley-‐to-‐ valley differences; loss of important dry season flow
Figures 3 and 4; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.
• Smallholder agriculture: 10% less rural popula>on (1970-‐2000), total area cul>vated down 19% (1972-‐2008) • Agriculture: less alfalfa, potatoes, barley, wheat; much more asparagus, sugar cane, rice • Mining: claims cover 52%; use water and hydroelectric resources; affect water quality • Potable water use: up 150%
J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.
Antamina Mine
• Hydroelectric: Duke Energy Egenor, 264 megawais • Coastal irriga>on: from 7,500 to 174,000 ha (1958 to present)
Utilized lands and glacial cover in Santa River Basin, north-central Peru Map by Jeffrey Bury
Figure 1; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.
Biophysical
Socio-Economic -------------------------------------------------------Jeffrey Bury (PI), Mark Carey (Co-PI), Bryan Mark (CoPI), Kenneth Young (Co-PI); “Hydrologic Transformation and Human Resilience to Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes”; National Science Foundation, Dynamics of Coupled Human-Natural Systems; Award #: 1010381
Quelccaya, and other high Andean sites Increase in size of
wetlands (temporary?) New pasturelands as ice retreats Smaller glaciers
Julio C. Postigo, 2012 Ph.D., “Responses of Plants, Pastoralists, and Governments to Social Environmental Changes in the Peruvian Southern Andes�
Human - Environment Interactions Global
Social-economic Processes
Biophysical Features
Ecosystem Service
Local
Social structures
PASTORALISM Land Use
Natural resources
Quelcaya Pastoralism and Climate Change
Global Mining Fiber price Policies Textile oligopoly
Droughts Freezing nights Ice/hail storms
Diminished Ecosystem Service
Community Extended family Household Local
PASTORALISM Overgrazing Degradation
Grassland Wetland Water
Conclusions Need coupled human-‐environment system
approach (at different scales) Expect feedbacks and interactions (and may be asymmetrical) Constraints are biophysical-‐-‐-‐temperatures, glaciers, seasonality, fire Constraints are socioeconomic-‐-‐-‐institutions, livelihoods, land tenure Trade-‐offs-‐-‐-‐carbon, water, biodiversity, natural hazards
kryoung@austin.utexas.edu
kryoung@austin.utexas.edu
Peru’s protected area system