But following the clinch of this bilateral pact in 2015, Southeast Asia witnessed numerous landmark developments. The Philippines won its against China, another heavyweight in the region, over territorial disputes in the South China Sea and elected a new, Rodrigo Duterte. And the friend both nations share, the United States, has now chosen its own unpredictable head of state Donald Trump. Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Obama recently made an official visit to Vietnam. Prior to Trumps victory at the polls, the U.S.-Vietnam relationship had been on a steady path toward improvement since the end of the war and the resumption of diplomatic relations. Within the last year, U.S. President Barack Obama made an to the country and the arms sale embargo that had been implemented during the Cold War. In many ways this was one of the last hurdles to full normalization. critiqueAs with most Trump policies, many are still unsure, but with Vietnams departure from the , and Trumps announcement of a as well, it is clear Vietnam is about its friendship with the United States. Dutertepivot to China
Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters
ASEAN is a useful forum and whilst the paper tiger has little to directly add to U.S. and Chinas differing stances in the South China Sea, it is at least a (sometimes) unified Southeast Asian voice. gain membershipRussiaAnd Vietnam certainly understands diversification of ties it is one of the and it has greatly increased the number of its strategic partnerships from 2011 to 2015. Its
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partnership with the Philippines is being watched possibly more closely since both the Hague ruling and Dutertes words. Any change to the U.S. alliance and U.S. presence in the region would be concerning to Hanoi. I reported 'For a country like Vietnam ... the most challenging issue is how to construct and maintain the balance among the big powers.' Dinh Hoang Thang, Vietnams former ambassador to the Netherlands For a country like Vietnam and the Philippines, the most challenging issue is how to construct and maintain the balance among the big powers, Vietnams former ambassador to the Netherlands Dinh Hoang Thang, who has been known to publicly comment on South China Sea , at a conference in Tokyo. And here I dont see the big differences between the approach of the Philippines and Vietnam. The partnership between the Philippines and Vietnam goes beyond that of merely a tangential shared interest in the balance of powers. In fact, as clear through their recent strategic partnership, the two nations have taken a more direct approach to cooperation with a focus on ASEANs role in their relationship. and its importance is a central tenet of the Joint Vision Statement, or JVS, signed by Vietnam and the Philippines as part of the signing of their strategic partnership on Nov. 17 of last year. made particular note to place ASEAN at the center of the relationship between the two nations in order to maintain, peace, stability and security in the region. bilateral friendshipBut the efforts to maintain the group remain strong, and just recentlyfocusing on maritime tensions. According to reports from , the conference
For Vietnam, a strong Chinese influence over the Philippines could change ASEANin favor of China. ASEAN is a forum for varied nations to cooperate, reinforcing multilateralism, consensus and cooperation all things Vietnam values. Does Duterte value those things? Although Duterte has gained international media attention for his unpredictability, he is also next in line to be the chair of ASEAN, whose summit will be in 2017. What Duterte believes about ASEAN then matters too, not just his off-the-cuff anti-U.S. rhetoric. And tighter relations between the Philippines and China could potentially undercut this. An actively proChina Philippines, if it is at the cost of other members, could harm unity within the organization and counteract Vietnams efforts to use ASEAN to balance out powers in the region, particularly since Vietnam views the multilateral ASEAN as a useful counter to Chinas growing influence on issues such as the debates over the South China Sea territory. For Vietnam, a strong Chinese influence over the
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Philippines could change the organization in favor of China. From the perspective of the Philippines, however, Dutertes pivot to China may help to salvage the countrys economy in spite of a Donald Trump presidency, a concern which may be at the forefront of Dutertes mind more than it appears. publicly congratulatedLong live, Mr. Trump! We both curse at the slightest of reasons. We are alike ... I dont want to quarrel anymore, because Trump has won, he said. And while he may not want to quarrel, experts in the region speculate this does not mean he is unaware of the potential harm Trump may cause the Philippines were a close relationship to continue.
tariffs for U.S. firmsoperate in the Philippines foresaw that theres this likelihood of Trump becoming president, so he decided to pivot to China, Pernia, also economic planning secretary, said at the presser. This pivot to China is also about protecting Filipino livelihoods and diversifying friends, he added
Duterte has indicated he may move his country closer to China. U.S. should leave the Philippinesmove closer to China. The Nikkei Asia Review earlier this month. Murray HiebertVietnam was quite enthusiastic about its new-found friend in the Philippines under Aquino, but Dutertes constant emotional outbursts against Washington has them a bit concerned, Reuters. 'China now has an incentive to push diplomacy to consolidate its presence in the South China Sea' Carlyle Thayer, Vietnam expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy In fact, Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy, has said that he believes that a Philippine swing to China will actually have the benefit of calming the
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region, and possibly quieting an aggressive China. wroteThe combination of Trumps election, and whatever implications that may have for the future of relations in the region, along with Dutertes unpredictability leave Vietnam to pin hopes for stability in the region on ASEAN, far away from such fiery, personality-driven politics. But as trade relations in the region fluctuate, it will be interesting to see where the new year will lead.
Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/duterte-trump-china-vietnamasean_us_58361b9ee4b09b6056002121
Between an Uncertain Duterte and Trump and a Powerful China, Vietnam Sees Stability in ASEAN
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