TD Economics
The Weekly Bottom Line
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April 21, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States • With only a few economic releases on tap, sovereign debt issues stepped back into the spotlight this week. In Europe, mounting speculation that Greece will have to announce a restructuring of its sovereign debt, sent the yield on 2-year Greek notes north of 22.0%. Stateside, Standard & Poors, for the first time, placed their U.S. triple-A credit rating on negative watch. • Debt restructuring in Greece will alleviate immediate fiscal hurtles, but it will not eliminate the need for continued fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. • In the U.S., the S&P’s shot across the bow may be the catalyst get policymakers off the sidelines and focus their attention on reaching some degree of agreement on how to address the nation’s long run fiscal challenges. Canada • Investors continued to acquire the Canadian dollar in droves this week, bidding up the loonie to a fresh three-and-a half year high of 1.05 US dollars. • All major drivers lined up in favour of currency strength, including U.S. dollar weakness, commodity prices and Canadian economic data releases, which caused markets to consider an earlier rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Still, for the most part, the loonie’s climb continued to be largely a story of stronger Canadian fundamentals. • Looking ahead, while the factors that have recently been strengthening the currency should remain supportive, we don’t expect another significant leg up.
THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS Current*
Week Ago
52-Week 52-Week High Low
Stock Market Indexes S&P 500 1,335 1,315 1,343 1,023 S&P/TSX Comp. 13,929 13,822 14,271 11,093 DAX 7,288 7,147 7,427 5,670 FTSE 100 6,008 5,964 6,091 4,806 Nikkei 9,686 9,654 11,213 8,605 Fixed Income Yields U.S. 10-yr Treasury 3.38 3.50 3.81 2.38 Canada 10-yr Bond 3.29 3.37 3.72 2.69 Germany 10-yr Bund 3.27 3.43 3.49 2.12 UK 10-yr Gilt 3.54 3.69 4.04 2.83 Japan 10-yr Bond 1.24 1.30 1.36 0.85 Foreign Exchange Cross Rates C$ (USD per CAD) 1.05 1.04 1.05 0.93 Euro (USD per EUR) 1.46 1.45 1.46 1.19 Pound (USD per GBP) 1.66 1.64 1.66 1.43 Yen (JPY per USD) 81.7 83.5 94.5 78.9 Commodity Spot Prices** Crude Oil ($US/bbl) 111.2 108.1 112.8 66.0 Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 4.33 4.12 5.17 3.18 Copper ($US/met. tonne) 9555.3 9389.3 10179.5 6067.8 Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1504.3 1474.2 1504.3 1141.5 *as of 11:30 am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA (Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold Bullion; Source: Bloomberg
WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR Australian dollar
1.67
Japanese yen
1.61
British pound
1.49
Swiss franc
1.33
Canadian dollar
0.99
Euro
0.96
Brazilian real
0.63
Mexican peso
0.47
N. Zealand dollar
0.21 -1
0
1
2
3
Source: Bloomberg
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS Current Target 0 - 0.25% Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate) 1.00% Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate) 1.25% European Central Bank (Refi Rate) 0.50% Bank of England (Repo Rate) 0.00% Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate) Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
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UNITED STATES - SOVEREIGN DEBT REDUX EUROPEAN BANKING EXPOSURE TO PIIGS 160
% of Lender's Total Banking System Reserves Portugal
140
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Au
n la
y
s
d
nd rla
ria st
K. U.
e th
ce
an m
er itz Sw
Ne
er
m iu lg
an Fr
G
Be
With only a few economic releases on tap, sovereign debt issues stepped back into the spotlight this week. In Europe, mounting speculation that Greece will have to announce a restructuring of its sovereign debt, perhaps as early as June, sent the yield on 2-year Greek notes north of 22.0%. Stateside, Standard & Poors, for the first time, placed their U.S. triple-A credit rating on negative watch. Concerns over the ability of governments to meet their debt obligations have a way of alarming financial markets, but equity markets shrugged off the news, focusing instead on better than expected earnings reports. As of writing, the S&P 500 was up 1.3% on the week. Nonetheless, even if issues around fiscal solvency have worn out their shock factor, they do have implications for the economic outlook. We have just published a report outlining some of the consequences a Greek debt restructuring would bring upon Greece’s economy, the European banking system, and the other debt-beleaguered European nations. It is very clear that a debt restructuring would alleviate Greek’s immediate fiscal hurdles, but it would not eliminate the need for fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. Moreover, the impact of such an event on Greek banks will result in a very stringent monetary setting, which would, in turn, exacerbate the negative impact on economic growth. On the European banking system, aggregate data on banks’ exposure to both sovereign and banking Greek debt suggest that the initial hit from a Greek restructuring would be manageable. However, the critical issue is that individual institutions could be destabilized, triggering a second round of contagion effects. And, once Greece announces restructuring efforts, this would prompt markets to quickly speculate the same outcome for Ireland and Portugal, which will further complicate the resolution of the ongoing debt crisis. Social appetite for bail-outs and adjustments programs will run very thin in countries requesting financial aid, as well as in those being asked to help. In any case, we should stress that sovereign debt restructurings are lengthy processes. A final resolution to this crisis and the materialization of its economic impact will not be fully known for several years after a restructuring takes place. In the meantime, brace yourself for a lot of turbulence. Back in the U.S.A., fiscal Armageddon isn’t so imminent. S&P’s outlook downgrade did not reflect weakness in the economy (they reaffirmed their economic growth forecast of 3.0% over the next several years). Instead, the announcement served as a reprimand against politicians’ in-
Source: BIS, TD Economics, as of September 2010
ability to compromise. The timing of the announcement was well-placed, too, coming as it did at a moment when deficit reduction is increasingly dominating the political debate in Washington. Treasury Secretary Geithner has given a stern warning to Congress that unless it votes to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will default on its debt obligations by early summer. While Congress will almost certainly vote accordingly, some empowered House Republicans have used it as a means of extracting budgetary concessions from the Democrats. Last week, House Republicans and the Obama administration released their respective plans to fix the nation’s long-term budgetary woes. Unfortunately, neither party has come up with a solution amenable to policymakers across the aisle. The Democrats are reluctant to cut spending where it matters – the nation’s entitlement programs need the most fixing – while the Republicans are loathe to raise taxes. Any long-term solution requires a combination of both, as we wrote about in our report, Putting the U.S. Fiscal House In Order. It is important to remember that these are long-term problems: the U.S. is still investors’ favored and most trusted sovereign. The U.S. treasury market is the most liquid in the world and U.S. bonds are still very much the safe haven of last resort. The country will continue to hold such a privileged financial position for the foreseeable future. But the events of this week should serve as a stark reminder that markets can revoke this privilege at any time. James Marple, Senior Economist 416-982-2557
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CANADA – LOONIE FLIES TO NEW HEIGHTS Investors continued to acquire the Canadian dollar in droves this week, bidding up the loonie to a fresh threeand-a-half year high of 1.05 US dollars. All major drivers lined up in favour of currency strength, including U.S. dollar weakness, commodity prices and Canadian economic data releases, which caused markets to consider an earlier rate hike by the Bank of Canada. On Monday, news of S&P’s downgrade of the long-term outlook on U.S. government debt from stable to negative weakened sentiment towards U.S. denominated financial assets. The ensuing sell-off brought about some depreciation in the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, including the Canadian dollar. Still, for the most part, the loonie’s climb continued to be largely a story of stronger Canadian fundamentals. With investors looking for ways to diversify their holdings on U.S. dollar softness, a number of key commodity prices strengthened during the week, with crude oil reaching the highest intraday price since April 11 of US$112 per barrel. Gold prices broke above US$1,500 per ounce, before losing some modest ground late in the week. Elsewhere within the commodity complex, prices increased with lumber being one of the sole soft spots. As such, the recent commodity bull run remained intact. Another major boost to the Canadian dollar was delivered by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which revealed an unexpectedly large jump in inflation. Notably, the year-over-year increase in the headline CPI accelerated from 2.2% in February to 3.3% in March on the back of sharp gains in energy, food and clothing prices. While the core measure of the CPI (which excludes the eight most volatile items in the consumption basket) rose at a more subdued pace of 1.7% in March, it still represented a near-doubling from a 26-year low of 0.9% in the prior month. While some of the year-over-year jump reflected the impact of Vancouver’s hosting of the Winter Olympics in February 2010, which temporarily raised tourism-related prices and depressed the previous month’s annual reading, investors were surprised at the broad-based nature of the strength. While a month does not make a trend, fixed-income markets priced in a higher risk of a near-term Bank of Canada rate hike. Today, the retail trade data for February was also currency positive. Snapping out of two straight months of decline, total sales rose by a decent 0.4% M/M in both real
CANADA & US 2-YEAR BOND SPREAD 1.20
Percent
1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/29 3/31 4/04 4/06 4/08 4/12 4/14 4/18 4/20
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
and nominal terms from January. Excluding autos, which contracted by 0.6% on the month, retail sales posted a particularly solid 0.7% gain in the month. Next Friday, the release of real Gross Domestic product (GDP) for the month of February will shed further light on the overall strength of the economy. While we expect real GDP to come in flat on a month-to-month basis, it would follow two exceptionally strong months of growth, leaving Canada’s expansion on track to come in at about 4% in the first quarter as a whole. In light of these reports, yields on Canadian government 2-year bonds rose by approximately 6 basis points this week. And with U.S. comparable yields moving down by 3 basis points, foreign-exchange investors were attracted to the more favourable returns North of the border. Looking ahead, while the factors that have recently been strengthening the currency should remain supportive, we don’t expect another significant leg up. Look for April CPI data to confirm that the March pop in CPI was an aberration, thus giving the Bank of Canada some leeway to wait until its July Fixed Announcement Date to resume rate hikes. Second, barring a further outbreak in tensions in the Middle East, oil prices look set to pull back closer to US$100 per barrel as focus shifts to slowing growth in emerging markets. Next year, a pull back to the mid-90 cent range looks to be a likely bet as expectations of Fed tightening increase. Shahrzad Fard, Economist 416-944-5729
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U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES U.S. Durable Goods Orders - March*
Release Date: April 27, 2011 FebruaryResult: Headline -0.9%; Ex-trans -0.6% TD Forecast: Headline 2.0%; Ex-trans 1.0% Consensus: Headline 2.0%; Ex-trans 2.2% Strong aircraft orders are expected to provide a significant boost to durable goods orders in March, with total orders rising at a robust 2.0% M/M pace. Excluding transportation, however, orders are set to rise at a more modest 1.0% M/M pace, while core capital goods orders should also be positive. This underscores the positive momentum in the tone of overall capital expenditures, despite the transient weakness during the first two months of the year. In the month ahead, as the economic recovery continues to gain traction we expect the tone of capital expenditures to remain positive as firms increase production activity to meet rising demand for their products.
6
M/M % Chg.
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Jan-10
Apr-10
The FOMC meeting next week will demonstrate that the doves remain in firm control of the policy process. The onset of a new rate regime is about proportion and risk, dictated by a greater urgency to move policy off its emergency setting and toward 1.0%. That will take months to materialize. The April FOMC meeting will provide little ammunition to presume that transition is taking shape. Two questions present themselves. First, what will the FOMC say about QE2, and second, what clues will be released that the Fed is inclined to passively tighten after June. On the first, there will be a reaffirmation that the program will be completed. That is already priced in. On the second, there is not likely to be anything of value for the simple reason the Fed is unsure of what to do. We know that if they passively tighten after June the balance sheet will still be bigger at
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
*New orders for durable goods industries, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision* Release Date: April 27, 2011 Current Rate: 0.0 0% to 0.25% TD Forecast: 0.0 0% to 0.25% Consensus: 0.0 0% to 0.25%
U.S. Durable Goods Orders*
FED FUNDS TARGET RATE 6
%
5 4 3 2 1 0 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board / Haver Analytics
year-end than it is now. However, it is all about signaling, and stung by the aftermath of QE1, the Fed will prefer to play it close to the vest for now, and ultimately on the safe side.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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U.S. Real GDP - Q1/11 Release Date: April 28, 2011 Q4 Result: 3.1% Q/Q ann. TD Forecast: 1.8% Q/Q Consensus: 1.8% Q/Q
The recovery is expected to hit a temporary soft patch in Q1 with the economy growing at a below-trend 1.8% Q/Q ann. pace. This will be almost half the 3.1% Q/Q pace achieved in Q4, though the economy is expect to boast a 3.0% growth rate during the year. Weak trade activity should be the key source of drag on economic activity during the quarter, while declining government consumption and residential investments should also subtract from growth. Consumer spending, on the other hand, is expected to rise during the quarter positing a modest 1.7% Q/Q advance, following the 4.1% Q/Q surge in the prior quarter. However, with the sustained improvement in labor market conditions continuing to be constructive for spending, we expect the growth in personal consumption expenditures
U.S. REAL GDP 7
Annualized Q/Q % Chg. 5.0
5 3
Despite the backdrop of a sub-par labor market recovery and declining housing wealth, US consumer have not let-up in their spending. We expect personal income to grow at a respectable 0.5% M/M pace, reflecting the improvement in labor market conditions. Personal spending is also expected to advance during the month, boasting a 0.5% M/M gain, bringing it in line with the gains in retail sales during the month. Moreover, with spending growing at about the same pace as income, the savings rate should remain relatively unchanged at 5.8%. In terms of inflation, given the significant amount of slack in the economy, we expect the core PCE deflator to remain unchanged, mirroring the modest rise in the core CPI indicator. In the coming months, we expect the pace of personal consumption expenditures to
3.2
3.0
2.3
3.7
2.9
0.9
1
2.6
1.6
0.6
-1
3.1
1.7
-0.7
-0.7
-3 -4.0
-5 -7
-4.9 -6.8
-9 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: BEA
to accelerate further boosting overall economic activity in the coming quarters. Non-residential capital investments should also add favorably to growth.
U.S. Personal Income & Spending - March* Release Date: April 29, 2011 February Result: income 0.3% M/M, spending 0.7% M/M TD Forecast: income 0.5% M/M; spending 0.5% M/M Consensus: income 0.4% M/M; spending 0.5% M/M
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U.S. PERSONAL INCOME AND SPENDING 1.2
M/M % Chg. Spending
1.0
Income
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / Haver Analytics
remain relatively low as U.S. households continue to repair their badly damaged balance sheets and the core deflator to remain subdued.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES Canadian GDP - February* Release Date: March 31, 2011 January Result: 0.5% M/M TD Forecast: 0.0% M/M Consensus: n/a
On an industry-level basis, real GDP is expected to have remained unchanged in the month of February. With respect to its composition, both manufacturing and wholesale volumes fell in the month (down 2.3% and 1.0% respectively) while real retail sales did post a respectable 0.4% gain. Elsewhere in the report, it is expected that both the mining sector and utilities may also be on the soft side. While our expectation for February is certainly disappointing, it follows a very robust 0.5% increase in January. As such, when looking at the quarter as a whole, we remain comfortable with our forecast for expenditure-based annualized real GDP growth in the ballpark of 3.8%. The prospect of another quarter featuring above-trend growth is consistent with the Bank of Canada’s expectation that the output gap
CANADIAN REAL GDP* 1.0
M/M % Chg.
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
*Real GDP at basic prices in 2002 chained dollars Source: Statistics Canada / Haver Analytics
is smaller than previously believed and will close at a faster rate. Following the upside surprise on inflation in March, the evidence supporting a July rate hike continues to grow.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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RECENT KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS: APRIL 18-22, 2011 Release Date
Economic Indicators
Apr 19 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 21 Apr 21 Apr 21 Apr 21
Building Permits Housing Starts MBA Mortgage Applications Existing Home Sales Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims House Price Index Leading Indicators Philadelphia Fed.
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 19 Apr 19 Apr 19 Apr 21 Apr 21
Int'l Securities Transactions Consumer Price Index Bank of Canada CPI Core Leading Indicators Wholesale Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales Less Autos
Apr 18 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Apr 19 GE PMI Manufacturing Apr 19 GE PMI Services Apr 19 EC Euro-Zone Current Account SA Apr 19 EC PMI Manufacturing Apr 19 EC PMI Services Apr 19 JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. Apr 20 GE Producer Prices Apr 21 GE IFO - Business Climate Apr 21 GE IFO - Expectations Apr 21 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
United States
Canada
International
Data for Period
Units
Current
Prior
Mar Mar 15-Apr Mar 16-Apr 9-Apr Feb Mar Apr
Thousands M/M % Chg. W/W % Chg. Millions Thousands Thousands M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index
11.2 7.2 5.3 5.10 403 3695 -1.6 0.4 18.5
-5.2 -18.5 -6.7 4.92 416 3702 -1.0 1.0 43.4
Feb Mar Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb
CAD, Blns M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg.
2.50 1.1 0.7 0.8 -0.6 0.4 0.7
13.37 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.5 -0.4 -0.2
Apr Apr Apr Feb Apr Apr Mar Mar Apr Apr Mar
Index Index Index Euro, Blns Index Index Yen, Blns Y/Y % Chg. Index Index Y/Y % Chg.
-11.4 61.7 57.7 -7.2 57.7 56.9 96.3 6.2 110.4 104.7 0.9
-10.6 60.9 60.1 -5.6 57.5 57.2 477.4 6.4 111.1 106.5 0.8
R R R R R R R
R
R R R R
R
R
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 25 - 29, 2011 Release Date
Time*
Apr 25 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 26 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 27 Apr 27 Apr 27 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 29 Apr 29 Apr 29 Apr 29 Apr 29
10:00 10:30 9:00 10:00 10:00 7:00 8:30 8:30 12:30 14:15 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 9:45 10:00 8:30 8:30 8:30 9:45 10:00 12:30
Apr 27 Apr 29
9:00 8:30
Economic Indicator/Event
United States New Home Sales Dallas Fed Manf. Activity S&P/CS 20 City Consumer Confidence Richmond Fed Manufact. Index MBA Mortgage Applications Durable Goods Orders Durables Ex Transportation FOMC Rate Decision Bernanke Speaks at Fed Press Conference Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index GDP QoQ (Annualized) GDP Price Index Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Fed's Williams Speaks at Community Affairs Conf. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Pending Home Sales Employment Cost Index Personal Income Personal Spending Chicago Purchasing Manager NAPM-Milwaukee Bernanke Speaks at Fed Community-Affairs Conf. Teranet/National Bank HPI Gross Domestic Product
Apr 26 21:30 AU Consumer Prices Apr 26 19:50 JN Retail Trade Apr 27 19:30 JN Jobless Rate Apr 27 19:30 JN Natl CPI Apr 27 19:50 JN Industrial Production Apr 27 17:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Apr 27 4:30 UK GDP Apr 28 3:55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) Apr 28 18:45 NZ Trade Balance Apr 28 JN BOJ Target Rate Apr 29 5:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Apr 29 5:00 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate * Eastern Standard Time; Sources: Bloomberg, TD Economics
Canada
International
Consensus Last Period Forecast
Data for Period
Units
Mar Apr Feb Apr Apr 22-Apr Mar Mar 27-Apr
M/M % Chg. Index M/M % Chg. Index Index W/W % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. %
Mar 1Q A 1Q A 23-Apr 16-Apr
Index Q/Q % Chg. Q/Q % Chg. Thousands Thousands
24-Apr Mar 1Q Mar Mar Apr Apr
Index M/M % Chg. Q/Q % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index Index
- 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 69.2 - -
- 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 70.6 66
- - -
0.4 0.5
3.0 -6.2 4.8 0.0 -8.5 2.50 1.8 7.0. 200 0.1 2.7 9.9
2.7 0.1 4.6 0.0 2.9 2.50 1.5 7.1 194 0.1 2.6 9.9
Feb Feb 1Q Mar Mar Mar Mar P 28-Apr 1Q A Apr Mar Apr Mar
M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. % Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. % Y/Y % Chg. % $, Millions % Y/Y % Chg. %
12.0 12.7 -0.4 64.4 20
-16.9 11.5 -0.2 63.4 20
- 2 2.2 0.25
5.3 -0.9 -0.6 0.25
- -
-0.04
1.8 2.5 - - -
3.1 0.4 - - -
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CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS Craig Alexander Senior Vice President and Chief Economist mailto:craig.alexander@td.com
CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Derek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:derek.burleton@td.com Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:pascal.gauthier@td.com
Beata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:beata.caranci@td.com James Marple Senior Economist mailto:james.marple@td.com
Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:diana.petramala@td.com
Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:martin.schwerdtfeger@td.com
Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:francis.fong@td.com
Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:christos.shiamptanis@td.com
Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:dina.cover@td.com
Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:alistair.bentley@td.com
Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:shahrzad.fard@td.com
Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:christopher.w.jones@td.com
Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:sonya.gulati@td.com
TO REACH US
Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:leslie.preston@td.com
Mailing Address 55 King Street West 21st Floor, TD Tower Toronto, Ontario M5K 1A2 Fax: (416) 944-5536 mailto:td.economics@td.com
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