TD Economics
The Weekly Bottom Line
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April 8, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States • It was a very quiet week for U.S. data releases, but there was plenty to digest on the macro economic policy front, both domestically and abroad. • Unsuccessful discussions regarding the U.S. budget, a growing divide at the Fed, and the first interest rate hike since 2008 by the European Central Bank (ECB), led to higher U.S. Treasury yields across the maturity curve and to a further weakening of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis its main crosses. • The ECB move was a reminder that interest rates are headed in only one direction and it won’t be long before other central banks in advanced economies such as Canada and the U.K. follow suit. Canada • The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey indicated that the inflation expectations of businesses have turned upwards, while more firms appear to be facing increased capacity pressures. Our view on inflation and the direction on monetary policy remains unchanged. The increase in inflation expectations is largely linked to rising energy prices. • Firms indicated that competitive pressures will limit their ability to pass cost increases onto consumer prices. • A number of domestic demand indicators suggest inflation will not be a problem in the near-term. Nonetheless, slack in the Canadian economy is gradually being absorbed and a rebalancing of monetary policy will be needed, but the Bank of Canada can wait until July to start raising rates.
THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS Current*
Week Ago
52-Week 52-Week High Low
Stock Market Indexes S&P 500 1,333 1,332 1,343 1,023 S&P/TSX Comp. 14,208 14,130 14,271 11,093 DAX 7,211 7,180 7,427 5,670 FTSE 100 6,048 6,010 6,091 4,806 Nikkei 9,768 9,708 11,274 8,605 Fixed Income Yields U.S. 10-yr Treasury 3.59 3.44 3.89 2.38 Canada 10-yr Bond 3.46 3.37 3.72 2.69 Germany 10-yr Bund 3.48 3.37 3.48 2.12 UK 10-yr Gilt 3.81 3.72 4.05 2.83 Japan 10-yr Bond 1.33 1.29 1.41 0.85 Foreign Exchange Cross Rates C$ (USD per CAD) 1.05 1.04 1.05 0.93 Euro (USD per EUR) 1.44 1.42 1.44 1.19 Pound (USD per GBP) 1.64 1.61 1.64 1.43 Yen (JPY per USD) 85.1 84.1 94.5 78.9 Commodity Spot Prices** Crude Oil ($US/bbl) 111.4 107.9 111.4 66.0 Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 4.13 4.32 5.17 3.18 Copper ($US/met. tonne) 9650.5 9343.3 10179.5 6067.8 Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1471.1 1428.8 1471.1 1135.8 *as of 11 am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA (Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold Bullion; Source: Bloomberg
WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR Brazilian real
1.92
N. Zealand dollar
1.85
British pound
1.66
Canadian dollar
1.55
Australian dollar
1.47
Swiss franc
1.43
Euro
1.42
Mexican peso
0.77
Japanese yen
-1.05 -3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: Bloomberg
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS Current Target 0 - 0.25% Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate) 1.00% Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate) 1.25% European Central Bank (Refi Rate) 0.50% Bank of England (Repo Rate) 0.00% Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate) Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
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UNITED STATES - ON THE VERGE OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN It was a very quiet week for U.S. data releases, but there was plenty to digest on the macro economic policy front, both domestically and abroad. Unsuccessful discussions regarding the U.S. budget, a growing divide at the Fed, the first interest rate hike since 2008 by the European Central Bank (ECB), combined with the impact of yesterday’s earthquake in Japan, led to higher U.S. Treasury yields across the maturity curve and to a further weakening of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the other major currencies, with the sole exception of the Japanese yen. On the fiscal front, negotiations between House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have failed to deliver agreement on a bill that would secure government funding beyond today’s expiration of the current stopgap funding bill. If there is no agreement by midnight, all government operations deemed non-essential would have to be suspended until either a new stopgap funding measure is passed or a fiscal budget is enacted. Although a government shutdown will cause significant disruptions to many services, its macro economic consequences will be limited, granted that the impasse is short lived. The reason for this is that, even within non-essential activities, there are many contracts that operate on long-term funding and/or funds that have been apportioned in the previous year’s budget, which will remain unaffected. And, while the interruption in some activities will indeed subtract from economic growth initially, most of the economic loss will be recouped once they resume. Thus, in aggregate, if the shutdown is limited to a brief period, its effect will smooth out during subsequent months. In all, although estimates for the impact of a one-week shutdown vary widely from a reduction of 0.1 percentage points in annualized quarterly GDP growth up to 0.8 percentage points, we tend to agree with the lower end of the spectrum. Of course, if the stalemate extends much longer; its negative impact in terms of economic growth would escalate. A longer standoff could also cast a cloud on financial markets’ confidence in the U.S. ability to deal with its cumbersome fiscal outlook beyond this year, which could lead to a rise in interest rates on U.S. sovereign debt. Let’s not forget that in the very short term, U.S. legislators will also have to decide whether to expand the U.S. debt ceiling from the current $14.3 trillion statutory limit. According to Treasury Secretary Geithner, that limit will be reached no later than May 16th. This discussion, together with the 2011 fiscal budget negotiations, will be framed within the longer-term fiscal challenges for the
POLICY INTEREST RATES 6
%
%
5
Fed
6 5
BoE
4
ECB
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
0 Apr-11
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England
U.S., which will require the country to rein in the escalating costs of the largest government programs – Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid – and seek ways to increase fiscal revenues. Although we believe any significant fiscal tightening will not take place before 2013, current events could certainly bring it forward (for details, please see Putting the U.S. Fiscal House in Order). On the monetary front, the minutes for the Fed’s FOMC meeting held on March 15th showed a widening divide between a small group of members favoring a move toward less-accommodative monetary policy this year, and a few others who judge the current stance could be appropriate beyond 2011. We believe the Fed will not raise the federal funds rate until 2012. On the other side of the Atlantic, attending to its mandate of delivering price stability defined as annual inflation of below, but close to 2%, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Moreover, the general tone of the after-meeting press conference ratified our expectation that, although additional hikes totaling 50 basis points are likely this year, these will probably not happen until the third quarter. The ECB move was a reminder that interest rates are headed in only one direction and it won’t be long before other central banks in advanced economies – like Canada and the U.K. – follow suit. Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist 416-982-2559
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CANADA – BETWEEN A ROCK AND A SOFT PLACE One of the key developments this week was a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in an effort to combat headline inflation. At first glance, one would think that this week’s release of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) closely watched Business Outlook Survey (BoS) indicates that the central bank should follow the ECB’s lead. The survey results showed that businesses expect food and energy price inflation to remain elevated, and headline inflation to accelerate. Meanwhile, the fact that some businesses are having some difficulty meeting demand suggests that slack in the Canadian economy is being diminished. However, we find a number of reasons to believe that the BoC is not likely to follow the ECB in raising rates at next week’s fixed announcement date. The ECB targets headline inflation, while the BoC puts considerable emphasis on core inflation, and is thus likely to look past rising food and energy prices. With Canadian core inflation of just 0.9% in February, the BoC does not appear pressed with an inflation problem. First, a significant amount of slack still exists in the Canadian economy. While the share of firms experiencing some to significant difficulty meeting demand has turned up, its remains low by historical standards. What’s more, Canadian economic growth will likely moderate to below 3.0% in the second half of this year, helping to keep inflation pressures in check. The BoS indicated that while 40% of firms indicated some difficulty in meeting demand, businesses are less confident that the uptick in growth will be sustained through the rest of 2011. As a result, businesses have been shy to unlock unused excess capacity that still exists in the Canadian economy. Second, while rising energy prices are impacting the CANADIAN LABOUR MARKET 100
change, 000's
%
9.0 8.5
50
8.0 7.5
0
7.0 -50
6.5
Employment (lhs)
-100
6.0
Unemployment Rate (rhs)
-150 Jan-2008
5.5 5.0
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics
Jan-2011
BANK OF CANADA OUTLOOK SURVEY RESULTS % of business responses 80
Some to Significant difficulty meeting demand Balance of opinion on future sales
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 2001 2003 2005 Source: Bank of Canada/Haver Analytics
2007
2009
bottom lines of Canadian businesses, the feed-through to Canadian core prices will be limited. Concerns over competition will limit how much of rising costs businesses will be able to pass onto consumer prices. Moreover, Canadian households will feel the pinch from rising food and energy prices. With the price of oil hitting U.S. $110 per barrel at the end of this week, these price pressures are unlikely to abate in the near future. This will put upward pressure on headline prices, but also leave less money in pockets for other items, which is a negative for core inflation. Last but not least is the Canadian dollar, which rose to a three year high of U.S.$ 1.046 by weeks end. The strength in the Canadian dollar will dampen Canadian exports, constraining economic growth. It could also dampen prices for imported consumer goods. All of which helps to constrain inflation. That’s all to say that the BoC has some leeway with monetary policy over the coming months. At next week’s fixed announcement date, and in the MPR, the BoC will highlight the improving economic backdrop, but is also likely to signal that they are not unduly worried about inflation. Indeed, economic growth has surpassed its January forecast by a large margin, and the performance in the labour market over the last six months has been relatively healthy. Despite a disappointing March, on a four-month moving average the labour market has added 28,000 jobs per month. This is consistent with healthy economic growth of 2.5-3.0%. The bottom line is that slack in the economy is being absorbed, but the BoC can wait until July before gradually tightening monetary policy from its current hyper accommodative stance. Diana Petramala, Economist 416-982-6420
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U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES U.S. International Trade - February* Release Date: April 12, 2011 January Result: -$46.3B TD Forecast: -$45.0B Consensus: -$44.0B
The US trade balance should enjoy a brief respite in February, with the deficit expected to moderate to $45.0B. The combination of the weak dollar (bolstering export competitiveness) and rising global demand should be the key factors contributing to the improvement. Exports should rise for the eighth straight month, while imports should fall modestly. Rising energy prices, however, should push the petroleum deficit sharply higher and excluding petroleum the trade deficit is expected to improve. In the coming months, with the weak dollar continuing to boost export activity, the deficit should ease further, though this is likely to be offset by rising energy prices.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE US$, Billions
-25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55
Jan-10
Rising gasoline prices and the sustained positive momentum in overall consumer spending should push total retail sales higher for the eighth consecutive month in March. During the month, we expect spending to post another respectable 0.5% M/M gain, following the 0.7% M/M advance the month before. Strong gasoline sales, which we expect to post a 3.0% advance, along with strong merchandise and apparel expenditures should be the key factors driving the headline number higher, more than offsetting the drop in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales should rise at 0.7% M/M. Core consumer spending is also expected to be higher, rising by 0.4% M/M, reflecting the positive tone
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics
U.S. Retail Sales - March*
Release Date: April 13, 2011 February Result: Retail Sales 1.0% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos 0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.6% TD Forecast: Retail Sales 0.5% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos 0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.4% Consensus: Retail Sales 0.5% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos 0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.4%
Mar-10
U.S. RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES 2.5
M/M % Chg.
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
Total
-1.5
Excl. Automotive Dealers
-2.0 -2.5 Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce / Haver Analytics
in overall consumer spending. In the months ahead, given the continued recovery in overall economic conditions and sustained employment growth, we expect the advance in consumer spending to be sustained.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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U.S. CPI - March*
Release Date: April 15, 2011 February Result: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.5% M/M, TD Forecast: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/M Consensus: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.5% M/M As the recent run-up in commodity prices continues to slowly filter through to consumer food and gasoline prices, we expect the headline CPI index to post a new cyclical high in March. During the month, our call is for headline consumer prices to rise by 0.4% M/M, marking the fourth consecutive month of strong gains. On an annual basis, the pace of consumer price inflation should accelerate to 2.5% Y/Y from 2.1% Y/Y the month before. Much of the gains in the headline number should come from the surge in energy prices, which we expect to post another robust 3.0% M/M rise. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to rise at a much more modest 0.1% M/M pace, following two consecutive 0.2% M/M gains. The risks to this call, however, are to the upside. On an annual basis, core inflation should rise to 1.2% Y/Y from 1.1% Y/Y in February. In the coming months, with the
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U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y % Chg. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
All Items
The manufacturing sector continues to provide a strong boost to overall industrial production activity and has been one of the few bright spots of the overall economic recovery. In March, we expect headline industrial production to post a respectable 0.6% M/M bounce following the flat print the month before. Strong manufacturing sector activity is expected to be the key catalyst for the bounce, while mining and utility sector production should also add favorably to the top line. As production activity continues to rise, we expect the capacity utilisation rate to edge higher, rising to 77.3% in March, just shy of its cyclical high. In the months
All Items Ex. Food and Energy
-1.0 Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics
considerable economic slack likely to remain a key factor placing downward pressure on core consumer prices, we expect annual core inflation to remain just above the 1.0% Y/Y, underscoring the very weak core inflationary backdrop for the US economy.
U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - March*
Release Date: April 15, 2011 February Result: Industrial Production -0.1% M/M; Capacity Utilization 76.3% TD Forecast: Industrial Production 0.8% M/M; Capacity Utilization 77.2% Consensus: Industrial Production 0.5% M/M; Capacity Utilization 77.4%
5
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U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1.8
M/M % Chg.
% Industrial Production (lhs)
1.6
77
Capacity Utilization (rhs)
1.4
78
76
1.2
75
1.0
74
0.8
73
0.6
72
0.4
71
0.2
70
0.0
69 Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
ahead, with the economic recovery continuing to gain traction, we expect the pace of industrial production and the rate of utilization to edge higher.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES Canadian International Trade - February* Release Date: April 12, 2011 January Result: $0.1B TD Forecast: 0.8B Consensus: 0.7B
The trade surplus is forecast to rise modestly to $0.8B in February. Exports are expected to have risen by 3.0%, outpacing import growth of 1.0%. The strength in producer prices is expected to have contributed to a higher value of exports. Moreover, February was a particularly strong month for US economic activity and as such, some of that strength should have provided an additional boost for demand of Canadian goods. The rise in US motor vehicle assembly is expected to be the primary driver of the gain in Canadian imports. In assessing trade as a whole, this plays into the underlying theme of net exports becoming a primary driver of growth for the Canadian economy into 2011.
CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE Dollars, Billions
42 40 38 36 34 32
Exports
30
Imports
28 26 Jan-10
The Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.00% next week and will strike a cautiously optimistic tone in the accompanying communiquĂŠ. The release of the April MPR will contrast a more robust outlook for economic growth with a benign backdrop for inflation. We expect the steady absorption of spare capacity will prompt the Bank to move next in July and take the overnight rate to 2.00% by the end of 2011.
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Statistics Canada / Haver Analytics
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision* Release Date: April 12, 2011 Current Rate: 1.00% TD Forecast: 1.00% Consensus: 1.00%
Mar-10
BANK OF CANADA OVERNIGHT RATE 5.0
%
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Bank of Canada / Haver Analytics
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
10
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Canadian Manufacturing Shipments - February* Release Date: April 14, 2011 January Result: 4.5% M/M TD Forecast: 0.5% M/M Consensus: -0.1% M/M
Canadian manufacturing sales are forecast to carry their momentum into February, although at a much more modest pace with a 0.5% gain. The return of several automotive plants coming online in the previous month should continue to provide a boost to manufacturing sales. Moreover, the rise in new manufacturing orders in January should funnel through to sales in February. While preliminary data suggests that new motor vehicle sales may have decreased in February, the ongoing recovery in the US economy, along with increased US motor vehicle assembly, is expected to provide an offset. Adjusting for inflation suggests that real sales may have been slightly down on the month. A caveat however, is that normally we have trade data well before conducting this forecast. As such, we may revise this number
CANADIAN MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS 5.0
M/M % Chg.
Seasonally Adjusted Ratio
1.5
Inventory-to-Shipments Ratio (right scale)
4.0 3.0
1.4
2.0 1.0 1.3
0.0 -1.0
Manufacturing Shipments (left scale)
-2.0 Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
1.2 Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Statistics Canada
when the trade balance is released early next week. On the whole however, this release should speak to the underlying theme of a robust Canadian macro backdrop in Q1.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
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RECENT KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 4-8, 2011 Release Date
Economic Indicator/Event
United States
Apr 5 Apr 6 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 8
ISM Non-Manf. Composite MBA Mortgage Applications Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Consumer Credit ICSC Chain Store Sales Wholesale Inventories
Apr 4 Apr 4 Apr 6 Apr 7 Apr 8 Apr 8 Apr 8 Apr 8 Apr 8 Apr 8
Business Outlook Future Sales BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Building Permits Full Time Employment Change Net Change in Employment Participation Rate Part Time Employment Change Unemployment Rate Housing Starts
Apr 3 AU TD Securities Inflation Apr 3 NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey Apr 4 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Apr 4 EC Euro-Zone PPI Apr 4 AU Trade Balance Apr 5 AU RBA Cash Target Apr 5 UK PMI Services Apr 5 UK Official Reserves (Changes) Apr 5 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales Apr 6 UK Industrial Production Apr 6 GE Factory Orders Apr 6 AU Unemployment Rate Apr 7 JP BOJ Target Rate Apr 7 GE Industrial Production Apr 7 UK BOE Announces Interest Rates Apr 7 EC ECB Announces Interest Rates Apr 7 JN Adjusted Current Account Total Apr 7 JN Trade Balance - BOP Basis Apr 8 GE Exports Apr 8 UK PPI Output Core * Eastern Standard Time; Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
Canada
International
Data for Period
Units
Current
Prior
Mar 01-Apr 02-Apr 26-Mar Feb Mar Feb
Index W/W % Chg. Thousands Thousands USD, Blns Y/Y % Chg. M/M % Chg.
57.3 -2.0 382
59.7 -7.5 392
3723 7.617 2.0 1.0
3732 4.446 4.2 1.0
Q1 Q1 Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
Index Index Index M/M % Chg. Thousands Thousands % Thousands % Thousands
13.00 -31.7 73.2 9.9 90.6 -1.5 66.9 -92.1 7.7 188.8
22.00 -36.4 69.3 -6.6 -23.8 15.1 67.0 38.9 7.8 183.7
Mar Q1 Apr Feb Feb 5-Apr Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb Mar 7-Apr Feb 7-Apr 7-Apr Feb Feb Feb Mar
Y/Y % Chg. Index Index Y/Y % Chg. AUD, Mlns % Index USD, Mlns Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. % % Y/Y % Chg. % % Yen, Blns Yen, Blns M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg.
3.8 -27 14.2 6.6 -205 4.75 57.1 2253 0.1 2.4 20.1 4.9 0.10 14.8 0.50 1.25 1209.8 723.3 2.7 3.0
3.6 8 17.1 5.9 1433 4.75 52.6 904 0.7 4.2 16.5 5.0 0.10 12.7 0.50 1.00 1089.2 -394.5 -1.0 3.1
R R R R
R
R
R R
R R
R
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 11-15, 2011 Release Date
Time*
Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15 Apr 15
7:30 8:30 8:30 9:15 10:00 14:00 14:45 7:00 8:30 8:30 8:30 10:00 10:00 13:00 14:00 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 13:15 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 9:00 9:00 9:15 9:15 9:55
NFIB Small Business Optimism Import Price Index Trade Balance Kansas City Fed's Hoenig Speaks on "Too Big to Fail" IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Monthly Budget Statement Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Derivatives Regulation MBA Mortgage Applications Advance Retail Sales Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas Retail Sales Less Autos JOLTs Job Openings Business Inventories Reserve Bank of Australia's Stevens Speaks in New York City Fed's Beige Book Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Producer Price Index PPI Ex Food & Energy Fed's Tarullo Speaks in Washington on Growth, Inflation Consumer Price Index CPI Ex Food & Energy CPI Core Index SA Empire Manufacturing Total Net TIC Flows Net Long-term TIC Flows Industrial Production Capacity Utilization U. of Michigan Confidence
Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
8:30 8:30 9:00 10:30 8:30
New Housing Price Index Int'l Merchandise Trade Bank of Canada Rate Monetary Policy Report Manufacturing Sales
Economic Indicator/Event
United States
Canada
International
Apr 12 2:45 FR Current Account Apr 12 4:30 UK Total Trade Balance Apr 12 4:30 UK CPI Apr 12 4:30 UK Core CPI Apr 12 4:30 UK Retail Price Index Apr 12 5:00 GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) Apr 13 1:30 FR CPI - EU Harmonised Apr 13 4:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Apr 13 5:00 EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. WDA Apr 14 4:00 EC ECB Publishes April Monthly Report Apr 15 5:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core Apr 15 5:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance SA * Eastern Standard Time; Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
Consensus Last Period Forecast
Data for Period
Units
Mar Mar Feb
Index M/M % Chg. USD, Blns
95.0 2.0 -44.0
94.5 1.4 -46.3
Apr Mar
Index --
45.0 --
43.0 --
8-Apr Mar Mar Mar Feb Feb
W/W % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Thousands M/M % Chg.
-0.5 0.4 0.7 -0.8
-2.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 2760 0.9
9-Apr 2-Apr Mar Mar
Thousands Thousands M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg.
380 3709 1.1 0.2
382 3723 1.6 0.2
Mar Mar Mar Apr Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr
M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index Index USD, Blns USD, Blns M/M % Chg. % Index
0.5 0.2 -17.15 --0.5 77.4 69.0
0.5 0.2 223.029 17.50 32.5 51.5 -0.1 76.3 67.5
Feb Feb 12-Apr
M/M % Chg. CAD, Blns %
0.2 0.7 1.00
0.2 0.1 1.00
Feb
M/M % Chg.
-0.1
4.5
Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr Mar Feb Feb
EUR, Blns GBP, Mlns Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Index Y/Y % Chg. % Y/Y % Chg.
--3950 4.4 3.3 5.5 10.6 1.9 8.0 8.0
-5.1 -2950 4.4 3.4 5.5 14.1 1.8 8.0 6.6
Mar Feb
Y/Y % Chg. EUR, Blns
1.1 -3.6
1.0 -3.3
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CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS Craig Alexander Senior Vice President and Chief Economist mailto:craig.alexander@td.com
CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Derek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:derek.burleton@td.com Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:pascal.gauthier@td.com
Beata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:beata.caranci@td.com James Marple Senior Economist mailto:james.marple@td.com
Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:diana.petramala@td.com
Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:martin.schwerdtfeger@td.com
Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:francis.fong@td.com
Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:christos.shiamptanis@td.com
Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:dina.cover@td.com
Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:alistair.bentley@td.com
Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:shahrzad.fard@td.com
Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:christopher.w.jones@td.com
Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:sonya.gulati@td.com
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Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:leslie.preston@td.com
Mailing Address 55 King Street West 21st Floor, TD Tower Toronto, Ontario M5K 1A2 Fax: (416) 944-5536 mailto:td.economics@td.com
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