TD Economics
The Weekly Bottom Line
www.td.com/economics
March 11, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States • An 8.9 magnitude earthquake wreaked havoc on Japan last night, pushing Asian and European stocks lower. It is too soon to accurately assess the impact on the global economy, so markets may exhibit some volatility in the coming days as additional information becomes available. • Debt downgrades in Europe, possible signs of slowing growth in China and ongoing discord in the Middle East also cast a shadow of uncertainty on the global economy. • U.S. data was generally positive as consumer credit and retail sales continued to grow. • We don’t expect the Fed to change its policy stance at next week’s monetary policy meeting. But, we will be looking very carefully for any changes in the Fed’s language on exit strategies and inflation. Canada • After dramatic swings over the past few years, this week’s economic data painted a picture of an economy going through a normalization process. • At 181,300 units in February, housing starts were largely in line with demographic fundamentals. Meanwhile, Canada posted a merchandise trade surplus for a second consecutive month in January. • The labour market added a disappointing 15,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate stalled at 7.8%. Nonetheless, on a trend basis, jobs gains have been consistent with healthy, relatively sustainable economic growth. • International risks intensified this week, pushing the S&P/TSX index down 4.5%. The Canadian dollar was relatively flat, supported by still elevated commodity prices. THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS
1.41
$/€
¥/$
1.40
84.0 83.5
1.39
83.0
1.38
82.5
1.37
82.0
1.36
81.5
1.35 1.34
USD/EUR -L-
81.0
1.33
JPY/USD -R-
80.5
3/11
3/09
3/07
3/03
3/01
2/25
2/23
2/21
2/17
2/15
80.0 2/11
1.32 2/09
Stock Market Indexes S&P 500 1294 1321 1343 1023 S&P/TSX Comp. 13634 14253 14253 11093 DAX 7003 7179 7427 5670 FTSE 100 5838 5990 6091 4806 Nikkei 10254 10694 11339 8824 Fixed Income Yields U.S. 10-yr Treasury 3.37 3.49 3.99 2.38 Canada 10-yr Bond 3.26 3.33 3.72 2.69 Germany 10-yr Bund 3.21 3.27 3.33 2.12 UK 10-yr Gilt 3.55 3.63 4.15 2.83 Japan 10-yr Bond 1.26 1.31 1.41 0.85 Foreign Exchange Cross Rates C$ (USD per CAD) 1.02 1.03 1.03 0.93 Euro (USD per EUR) 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.19 Pound (USD per GBP) 1.60 1.63 1.63 1.43 Yen (JPY per USD) 82.2 82.3 94.6 80.4 Commodity Spot Prices** Crude Oil ($US/bbl) 99.6 104.4 105.4 66.0 Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 3.86 3.70 5.17 3.18 Copper ($US/met. tonne) 9173.0 9886.5 10179.5 6067.8 Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1410.7 1430.9 1434.5 1086.7 *as of 10 am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA (Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold Bullion; Source: Bloomberg
U.S. DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE
2/07
52-Week 52-Week High Low
2/03
Week Ago
2/01
Current*
Source: Federal Reserve Board of New York
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS Current Target 0 - 0.25% Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate) 1.00% Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate) 1.00% European Central Bank (Refi Rate) 0.50% Bank of England (Repo Rate) 0.00% Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate) Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
The Weekly Bottom Line March 11, 2011
2
TD Economics www.td.com/economics
UNITED STATES - GLOBAL ECONOMY ROCKS MARKETS Developments across Asia, Europe and the Middle East pushed markets lower this week. Last night, a massive 8.9 magnitude earthquake wreaked havoc on Japan (the world’s third largest economy). In the short-run, a natural disaster such as this lowers economic activity by destroying wealth and capital equipment. It is too soon to accurately assess what impact this will have on the global economy, but there could be some important knock-on effects as exporters in America pick up the slack from lower Japanese production. This disaster has come at the end of a week that was already being driven by investor concern over the international economy. Earlier in the week, the public debts of Greece and Spain were both downgraded by rating agencies. Further, disappointing export numbers from China signaled that the world’s second largest economy may be slowing. Finally, the crisis in Libya continues and reports of shots fired in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Thursday hardly quelled investors concerns that turmoil in the Middle East would not spread to the world’s largest oil producer. Needless to say, all this international volatility has had a big impact on U.S. markets. By 12:00pm on Friday, the S&P 500 was down by 1.6% on the week and bonds reaped the rewards of this as investors move out of equities. Meanwhile, moves in the U.S. dollar were especially volatile. Early in the week, flight to safety caused the USD to strengthen. But, following the earthquake in Japan, the Yen rose on expectations of strong capital inflows to aid in reconstruction. Finally, West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 on Friday as investors prepared for weaker Japanese demand. As international developments dragged down markets, economic developments in the U.S. remained fairly positive. Consumer credit grew in January by an unexpectedly strong CAR SALES AND CONSUMER CREDIT 14
Millions
M/M % Chg.
0.8 0.6
12
0.4
10
0.2
8
0.0
6
-0.2 -0.4
4
-0.6
Domestic Vehicle Sales -L-
2
-0.8
Consumer Credit -R-
0 2007
2008
2009
-1.0 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Autodata Corporation
2011
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 700
Thousands of jobs*
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*Seasonally adjusted, 4-week moving average Source: Department of Labor
$5bln. This marks the fifth consecutive month of expansion in non-residential consumer lending, and while some of this is the result of fewer write downs, it is also a signal that consumers are becoming more willing to borrow funds and purchase large durable goods. The impact of this showed up directly in February’s retail sales figures which rose by a healthy 1.0%, fueled in large part by motor vehicle sales. Even the disappointing data released in the U.S. this week had optimistic undercurrents. In January, the trade balance widened somewhat unexpectedly. From an accounting standpoint, this will slow Q1 GDP growth, but domestic manufacturers benefited from a 2.5% increase in real exports. Moreover, the strong 4.0% increase in real import growth is a reflection of improving U.S. domestic demand. Initial jobless claims also disappointed market expectations for an increase to 376K ,by rising to 397K; however, the fact that a sub-400K reading on initial claims is now taken as bad news reflects how far the job market has come. Only three months ago, this would have been considered a very strong result. The Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy against this backdrop of heightened international risk and a strengthening domestic economy. While we don’t expect an increase in interest rates or any changes to the asset purchase program, this meeting still matters. It seems likely that the Fed will begin signaling how it plans on managing its balance sheet. Also, we will be looking for changes in the Fed’s language on inflation. Minutes from the previous meeting and various Fed speeches show that a heated debate is brewing about inflation and the current monetary policy stance. Given the uptick in core CPI during January, this debate is likely to become a lot more interesting. Alistair Bentley, Economist 416-307-5968
The Weekly Bottom Line
3
TD Economics
March 11, 2011
www.td.com/economics
CANADA – HEALTHY ECONOMIC ENVIROMENT, LITTERED WITH RISKS As we move further away from the 2008/2009 financial crisis, the Canadian economic data continue to paint a picture of an economy swiftly returning to normal. That doesn’t mean we should expect the heydays of the decade prior to the recession to return. Those days were characterized by an overinflated housing market, and booming commodity prices and employment markets, both of which have proven unsustainable. A more normal environment for the Canadian economy is one characterized by moderate, but healthy growth. This week’s data helped underscore this view, with housing starts and employment not too hot, and not too cold. In fact, at the current rate of 181,300 units, housing starts are largely inline with the 177,000 average units per month required to keep up with population growth, as estimated by CMHC. Meanwhile, Friday’s job figures showed that the recovery in the labour market has become well entrenched, with the level of employment eclipsing the pre-recession peak by 65,000 jobs in February. Admittedly, the details of the employment report in February were soft, but on a trend basis, the Canadian economy has turned out an average 20,000-25,000 jobs per month over the last six months, led by private, full-time positions. These jobs gains are consistent with healthy, steady economic growth in the range of 2.5-3.0%. The unemployment rate remains stuck at a lofty 7.8%, but with the labour market expected to continue chugging along at its current pace, the unemployment rate should continue to drift down, reaching 7.5% by end of 2011 and 7.3% by end of 2012. The trade data this week were also encouraging with further evidence that Canada’s trade deficits caused by the recession is unwinding. Canada’s merchandise trade balance was back in black for a second consecutive month in CANADIAN LABOUR MARKET 100
change, 000's
%
9.0 8.5
50
8.0
0
7.5 -50 -100
7.0
Employment (lhs)
6.5
Unemployment Rate (rhs) -150 Jan-2008
6.0 Jan-2009
Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics
Jan-2010
MARKETS UNDER PRESSURE THIS WEEK 16,000
Index level
WTI, U.S. $ per barrel 120
15,000 100
14,000 13,000
80
12,000 60
11,000 10,000 9,000
S&P/TSX Index (lhs)
Price of Oil (rhs)
8,000 Jan-10
40 20
Mar-10
May-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: Toronto Stock Exchange, Haver Analytics, WSJ
January, and for the first time in two years. With the U.S. recovery becoming more entrenched, demand for Canadian exports is likely to remain firm through 2011 and 2012. As such, the Canadian economy should continue to enjoy a sustained recovery in its trade balance. While the economy may be starting to normalize, not all is normal. Canadian interest rates remain well below normal levels, and are expected to stay low for some time. This low rate environment reflects the on-going challenges and heightened risks in the global economy, of which we were reminded of this week. European sovereign debt issues once again reared their ugly head with a downgrade in the credit rating of both Greece and Spain, increasing the likelihood of a debt restructuring in Greece. Meanwhile, fear that political unrest would spread to Saudi Arabia intensified this week, with the outbreak of protests and violence in the world’s largest oil producer. Friday morning, markets also took their cue from a tragic earthquake in Japan. The consequence of such international events is global financial instability, with Canada being taken along for the ride. A flight to safety this week pushed the S&P/TSX index down 4.5%. Meanwhile, markets have priced a significant fear premium into oil prices, which if pushed sustainably higher could compromise the global economic recovery. While the price of oil retreated to $100 U.S. per barrel by Friday morning, it still remains well above the $85-$90 that would be supported by supply and demand fundamentals. The bottom line is that while the Canadian economy has made significant advances along the path to renewed expansion, there are still a myriad of risks that could weigh heavily on Canadian economic growth and financial market prospects. Diana Petramala, Economist 416-982-6420
The Weekly Bottom Line
4
TD Economics
March 11, 2011
www.td.com/economics
U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision* Release Date: March 15, 2011 Current Rate: 0.0 0% to 0.25% TD Forecast: 0.0 0% to 0.25% Consensus: 0.0 0% to 0.25%
When the FOMC meets on Tuesday we expect the Committee to reiterate its commitment to keeping rates “exceptionally low for an extended period” and reaffirming its willingness to “employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.” The statement should also reiterate the Fed’s intention to complete the $600B in longer-term Treasury securities. The economic assessment should also be essentially unchanged, with the repeating its reference to the “economic recovery continuing”. The inflation assessment should remain largely intact, with the Committee reiterating its concerns about the subdued inflation trends.
FED FUNDS TARGET RATE %
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
02
03
As the impact of the significant run-up in commodity prices begins to slowly filter through to consumer food and gasoline prices, we expect the headline CPI index to continue to edge higher. In February, we expect headline consumer price inflation to rise by 0.3% M/M, with the pace of annual consumer price inflation accelerating to 1.9% Y/Y from 1.6% Y/Y. Much of the upswing in the headline number should be due to the 1.8% M/M advance in energy prices and the 0.4% M/M gain in food prices. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to rise at a much more modest 0.1% M/M pace, underscoring the still weak core inflationary backdrop for the US economy, with most components of the core consumer basket remaining relatively flat. Medical costs, however, are expected to post a 0.4% M/M bounce. On an annual basis, core inflation should remain unchanged at 1.0% Y/Y. In the coming
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board / Haver Analytics
U.S. CPI - February*
Release Date: March 17, 2011 January Result: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/M, TD Forecast: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.3% M/M Consensus: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/M
04
U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y % Chg. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
All Items
All Items Ex. Food and Energy
-1.0 Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics
months, with the considerable economic slack likely to remain a key factor placing downward pressure on core consumer prices, we expect annual core inflation to remain at or below the 1.0% Y/Y for another few months before gradually grinding higher in the last few months of the year.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
The Weekly Bottom Line
5
TD Economics
March 11, 2011
www.td.com/economics
CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES Canadian Manufacturing Shipments - January* Release Date: March 16, 2011 December Result: 0.4% M/M TD Forecast: 2.0% M/M Consensus: n/a
After the strength in international trade in December failed to show up in manufacturing shipments, we expect to see some catch-up in January. However, once bitten, twice shy, and as a result, we are leaning against the strength implied by our empirical models and settling on a forecast for a still-healthy 2.0% monthly growth rate in manufacturing shipments. Anecdotal evidence provided by Statistics Canada that inclement weather and parts shortages also adversely impacted manufacturers also supports adopting a less aggressive forecast. Not surprisingly, the auto sector (where exports and imports rose by 16.3% and 16.2% respectively in January) is expected to play a significant role in pushing the headline higher. Shipments of petroleum and coal are also expected to be stronger on the month, but we acknowledge that the impact of higher commodity prices triggered by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa will not show up until February or March.
CANADIAN MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS 2.5
M/M % Chg.
Seasonally Adjusted Ratio
1.5
Inventory-to-Shipments Ratio (right scale)
2.0 1.5
1.4
1.0 0.5 0.0
1.3
-0.5 -1.0
Manufacturing Shipments (left scale)
-1.5 Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
1.2 Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: Statistics Canada
Shifting the focus to the inflation-adjusted series, industrial prices were modestly higher in January, but were not strong enough to put too much of a dent in real shipments. As such, we expect a positive start to January’s industry level real GDP, which already stands to benefit significantly from the strong handoff from December.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
The Weekly Bottom Line
TD Economics
March 11, 2011
Canadian CPI - February*
Release Date: March 18, 2011 January Result: core 0.0% M/M; all-items 0.3% M/M TD Forecast: core 0.4% M/M; all-items 0.6% M/M Consensus: n/a There are a lot of moving parts in February that will make the interpretation of this report difficult. Although the ramp up in geopolitical pressures in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) occurred towards the end of the month, higher energy prices are expected to have underpinned a 0.6% increase in the non-seasonally adjusted all-items price index—which would be the largest monthly jump since early 2009. Once seasonal factors are taken into account, however, the increase in the price index becomes a relatively more benign 0.4%. The jump in the month price index is also expected to cause headline inflation to accelerate to a new year-over-year cyclical high of 2.5%. After several months of being weighed down by seasonal factors, the non-seasonally adjusted core price index is forecast to rebound by a relatively-toasty 0.4% in February. Most of this increase can be attributed to the end of holiday discounting for clothing, home furnishings and electronics. Looking at the seasonally-adjusted series, core prices are expected to move higher by a relatively more temperate 0.2%. Despite the forecasted strength in core prices, core inflation meanwhile is expected decelerate further to just 1.1% on a year-ago basis. This outcome is being driven entirely from the base year effect when a jump in the price of accommodation caused by the Vancouver Olympics in 2010 pushed the price index markedly higher. In extending the forecast out for the quarter as a whole will provide some comfort to the Bank of Canada. After
6
www.td.com/economics
CANADIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) 3.0
Y/Y % Chg. Bank of Canada core CPI except eight most volatile items and indirect taxes
2.5
CPI: All Items
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Source: Statistics Canada / Haver Analytics
assuming a similarly sized monthly increase in headline prices for March, year-ago headline inflation in Q2 will be in the neighbourhood of 2.6%, which is considerably stronger than the 2.2% the Bank had forecast in January and reaffirmed in the communiqué accompanying the March Fixed Announcement Date (FAD). However, core inflation continues appears likely to match the Bank’s quarterly forecast of 1.4%. The larger risk is likely to materialize in Q2 where evidence that retailers are passing the impact of higher food prices onto consumers could pose an upside risk to the Bank’s 1.5% forecast for core (recall that the Bank’s definition of core only excludes fresh food and vegetable prices). But even allowing for a modest forecast error, core inflation remains below the Bank’s 2.0% target, which in our view continues to afford them the luxury of time before recommencing interest rate hikes in July.
*Forecast by Rates and FX Strategy Group. For further information, contact TDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.
The Weekly Bottom Line March 11, 2011
TD Economics
7
www.td.com/economics
RECENT KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: MARCH 7-11, 2011 Release Date
Economic Indicator/Event
United States
Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 10 Mar 10 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11
Consumer Credit NFIB Small Business Optimism IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism MBA Mortgage Applications Wholesale Inventories Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Trade Balance Monthly Budget Statement Advance Retail Sales Retail Sales Less Autos Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas U. of Michigan Confidence JOLTs Job Openings Business Inventories
Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11
Building Permits Housing Starts New Housing Price Index Int'l Merchandise Trade Net Change in Employment Unemployment Rate Participation Rate
Mar 7 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Mar 7 JN Trade Balance - BOP Basis Mar 8 GE Factory Orders (nsa) Mar 8 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Mar 9 GE Industrial Prod. (nsa wda) Mar 9 AU Employment Change Mar 9 AU Unemployment Rate Mar 9 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Mar 9 UK Total Trade Balance Mar 9 JN GDP Annualized Mar 10 FR Non-Farm Payrolls Mar 10 FR Industrial Production Mar 10 UK Industrial Production Mar 10 UK BOE Announces Rates Mar 10 UK NIESR GDP Estimate * Eastern Standard Time; Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
Canada
International
Data for Period
Units
Current
Prior
Jan Feb Mar 4-Mar Jan 5-Mar 26-Feb Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Jan Jan
USD, Blns Index Index W/W % Chg. M/M % Chg. Thousands Thousands USD, Blns USD, Blns M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index Thousands M/M % Chg.
5.014 94.5 43.0 15.50 1.10 397 3771 -46.3 -222.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 68.2
4.095 94.1 50.9
2760 0.9
-6.50 1.30 371 3791 -40.3 -220.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 77.5 2921 1.1
Jan Feb Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb
M/M % Chg. Thousands M/M % Chg. CAD, Blns Thousands % %
-5.10 181.9 0.20 0.1 15.1 7.8 67.0
2.60 170.6 0.10 1.7 69.2 7.8 67.0
Mar Jan Jan Mar Jan Feb Feb Mar Jan 4Q F 4Q F Jan Jan Mar Feb
Index JPY, Blns Y/Y % Chg. Index Y/Y % Chg. Thousands % % GBP, Mlns Q/Q % Chg. Q/Q % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. % Q/Q % Chg.
17.1 -394.5 16.00 104.1 12.50 -10.1 5.00 2.50 -2950 -1.30 0.2 5.4 4.4 0.50 0.2
16.7 768.8 19.60 106.6 11.30 7.7 5.00 3.00 -5475 -1.10 0.2 7.0 3.7 0.50 -0.2
R
R R R R R R R R R R R R
R R R
R
R R
The Weekly Bottom Line March 11, 2011
8
TD Economics www.td.com/economics
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: MARCH 14-18, 2011 Release Date
Time*
Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17
8:30 8:30 9:00 9:00 10:00 14:15 7:00 7:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 9:15 9:15 10:00 10:00
Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 18
8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 7:00 7:00
Economic Indicator/Event
United States
Empire Manufacturing Import Price Index Total Net TIC Flows Net Long-Term TIC Flows NAHB Housing Market Index FOMC Rate Decision MBA Mortgage Applications Fed's Parkinson Addresses American Bankers Association Housing Starts Building Permits Producer Price Index PPI Ex Food & Energy Current Account Balance Consumer Price Index CPI Ex Food & Energy CPI Core SA Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Leading Indicators Philadelphia Fed. Capacity Utilization Rate Labor Productivity Manufacturing Sales Int'l Securities Transactions Wholesale Sales Consumer Price Index Bank of Canada CPI Core
Canada
International
Mar 14 6:00 EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. WDA Mar 14 20:30 AU Reserve Bank's Board March Minutes Mar 15 -JN BOJ Target Rate Mar 15 6:00 EC Eurzone Employment Mar 15 6:00 EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) Mar 16 5:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Mar 16 6:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core Mar 17 6:00 EC Construction Output WDA Mar 18 3:00 GE Producer Prices Mar 18 5:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account NSA Mar 18 6:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance * Eastern Standard Time; Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
Consensus Last Period Forecast
Data for Period
Units
Mar Feb Jan Jan Mar 15-Mar 11-Mar
Index M/M % Chg. USD, Blns USD, Blns Index % W/W % Chg.
16.00 0.9 --17 ---
15.43 1.5 48.2 65.9 16 0.25 15.5
Feb Feb Feb Feb 4Q Feb Feb Feb 12-Mar 5-Mar Feb Feb Feb Mar
Thousands Thousands M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. USD, Blns M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index Thousands Thousands M/M % Chg. % M/M % Chg. Index
575 570 0.6 0.2 -110.0 0.4 0.1 -385 3750 0.6 76.5 0.9 30.0
596 562 0.8 0.5 -127.2 0.4 0.2 222.587 397 3771 -0.1 76.1 0.1 35.9
4Q 4Q Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb
% Q/Q % Chg. M/M % Chg. CAD, Blns M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg.
--------
78.1 0.1 0.4 9.626 0.8 0.3 0.0
Jan
Y/Y % Chg.
6.4
8.0
15-Mar 4Q Mar Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Jan
% Y/Y % Chg. Index % Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Euro, Blns Euro, Blns
0.10 --7.9 1.1 -6.4 ---
0.10 -0.2 29.5 7.9 1.1 -12.0 5.7 -0.1 -0.5
The Weekly Bottom Line March 11, 2011
TD Economics
9
www.td.com/economics
CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS Craig Alexander Senior Vice President and Chief Economist mailto:craig.alexander@td.com
CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Derek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:derek.burleton@td.com Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:pascal.gauthier@td.com
Beata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:beata.caranci@td.com James Marple Senior Economist mailto:james.marple@td.com
Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:diana.petramala@td.com
Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:martin.schwerdtfeger@td.com
Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:francis.fong@td.com
Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:christos.shiamptanis@td.com
Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:dina.cover@td.com
Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:alistair.bentley@td.com
Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:shahrzad.fard@td.com
Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:sonya.gulati@td.com
Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:leslie.preston@td.com
Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:christopher.w.jones@td.com
TO REACH US
Mailing Address 55 King Street West 21st Floor, TD Tower Toronto, Ontario M5K 1A2 Fax: (416) 944-5536 mailto:td.economics@td.com
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.